Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 10th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Quantum Internet Will Blow Your Mind. Here's What It Will Look Like. (Discover)
• The US Military is Trialing Augmented Reality Goggles for Dogs. (CNN)
• Modern Science Didn't Appear until the 17Th Century. What Took So Long? (NYT)
• Qantas Airways 'Flight to Nowhere' that Sold out in Minutes Takes Off. (FoxNews)
• What Really Happens When You Become an Overnight Millionaire? (Marker)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Tesla Plans to Offer Machine-learning Training as Web Service with Its New 'Dojo' Supercomputer. (Electrek)
• Analysis: We Read the Antitrust Case against Amazon, and these are the Key Takeaways.  (GeekWire)
• Father of VIX Warns Options Glitch is Costing Investors Millions. (Bloomberg)
• Economists are More like Storytellers Than Scientists Don't Let the Nobel for Economic Sciences' Fool You. (TheConversation)
• The Stock Market Won't See the Bullish Outcome It's Expecting from a Biden Win Unless There's a Full Blue Wave, a JPMorgan Stock Strategist Says. (BusinessInsider)

How Machines Learn: Big Brother Is Watching

The ubiquity of Machine Learning algorithms remains a topic of interest because we, as a society, still haven't come to terms with what "acceptable" use looks like, and what privacy looks like in the post-AI world. 

Algorithms are helping you pick out your next gift on Amazon, controlling what you find on Google, they're suggesting new music for you on Spotify, and they're doing their best to keep you on their website.

They're following you in stores, on the streets, and many would argue they're tracking your phone calls, text messages, and more. 

With all that being said, I do think it's important to have a cursory knowledge of the things that impact our lives ... so, even if you're not an AI-aficionado, I think it's important to somewhat understand how machines learn, and how powerful they're becoming. 

The video is a bit simple in its explanations, but it describes some important concepts.

 

CGP Grey via Youtube

The video focuses on Genetic Algorithms, which is one type of machine learning – and neglects some of the other more complicated approaches.

As machine learning gets more complicated and evolved, it gets harder for a human to understand what makes it good … and that's okay. Understanding the direction AI is heading is more important than truly understanding the intricacies. 

It's human nature to feel safer when we understand something. It's human nature to envision machines as making human-like decisions, just faster.

Of course, just because it suits human nature to believe something, that doesn't make it true. 

Part of what makes machine learning exciting is that it can do a lot of things well that humans are really bad at. 

In reality, it doesn't matter why a bot is making a decision, or what inputs the bot is making the decision on. What matters is the performance and level of decision-making in relation to itself and to other options (and whether the bot is biased).

With respect to trading, focusing on the markets is a distraction.

For the most part, I don't care how markets are doing.

I care how our systems are doing and I care how the portfolio is doing.

It's a brave new world, and not only is big brother watching, but algorithms are too.

Live long and prosper!

What It Was Like Buying a Computer in 1994

We take for granted a lot of the technology we have today. Computers and phones have evolved so fast that it's hard to remember that they haven't been around for many years. When my youngest son was born in 1993,  cassette tapes and the Sony Walkman were still popular, I had a wired phone in my car, and we had a Macintosh-II in the study. 

Everything in this photo now exists in the cheapest of smartphones. 

For a blast from the past and a look back at what used to be top-of-the-line ... here's a video of people buying a computer in 1994. 

 

via David Hoffman

Video transfer and playback. 160-megabyte hard drive. 32 megahertz. All for the low price of $2,000. 

Pretty cool to see how far we've come!  Still, someday soon, they will look back at the tech we have now as "primitive" and "quaint".

I can't wait!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 4th, 2020

Did you watch the first presidential debate this week? I have friends on both sides of the fence, but we all agreed the debate was a mess. 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Don't Neglect the Thing that Makes You Weird - People Probably Admire it. (Freakonomics)
• Mindfulness for Skeptics. (RealSimple)
• Elon Musk: Neuralink Brain Implant Will Improve 'Bandwidth' of Human Communication. (CNet)
• The Typical Progression of Covid-19 Virus. (CNBC)
• Why Magic Mushrooms are the next Big Booming (and Legal!) Drug Market. (Observer)

 

 

Trading Links:

• President Trump Tests Positive for Covid. Why the Stock Market Isn't Getting Hammered. (Barrons)
• There's No Place to Hide Anymore When the Stock Market Plunges. (Wall Street Journal)
• Big U.S. Banks to Report Profit Plunge as Pandemic Recession Takes Hold. (Investing)
• Manhattan Apartment Sales Tumble 46%, Leaving 10,000 Homes on the Market. (DailyMail)
• SEC is Willing to Try' a Tokenized ETF, Chairman Says. (CoinDesk)

 

Can A Minute Be Faster? A Look At The Internet Minute

As I get older, time seems to move faster ... but it's also true that as I get older, more is accomplished every minute. 

Technology is a powerful force function.

Every couple of years I revisit a chart about how much data is generated every minute on the internet.  

In reverse chronological order, here's 2018, 2015, and 2011. 

Here's an excerpt from 2015 for some perspective: 

Compared to 2008 here is what's happened with social networks:

• The number of people online has more than doubled from 1.4 billion to over 3 billion
• Facebook has gone from 80 million users to more than 1.4 billion
• Twitter had 2 million accounts and now it is 300 million and counting.
• The number of smartphones was 250 million in 2008 and today there are more than 2 billion. That is an 800% increase!

Today this is what happens every minute on the web.

• 4 million search queries on Google
• Facebook users share 2.46 million pieces of content
• Email users send 204 million messages

Over the course of its (pretty short) history, the internet has been arguably the most important battlefield for relevancy and innovation. 

So, what does the internet look like in 2020?

DOMO via VisualCapitalist

Partially as a result of the quarantine, you're seeing an increase in digital cash transfers with tools like Venmo, an increase in e-commerce shops like Shopify, and an increase in (you guessed it) collaboration tools like Zoom or Microsoft Teams. 

This year, DOMO also created a chart that shows the services that have appeared in the graphic since 2012. It's an interesting way to look at the relevancy and staying power of different companies and technologies. 

We're currently in a time period of massive competition and turnover. Innovation means incumbents are being challenged every day, and the status quo doesn't stay that way for long. Even within the S&P 500, you're seeing companies stay a member for shorter periods of time.  

You have to stay on your toes to maintain an edge. I think you can expect increased competition, increased volume, and as a result, increased noise vying for your attention or fueling your distraction. 

The Day of Atonement

A few weeks ago was Rosh Hashanah – The Jewish New Year, and this evening starts Yom Kippur – the Day of Atonement.  The practice around these holidays is a good reminder to take account of where you are and appreciate the blessings around you. It was a reminder to me to sprint towards the end of 2020 with the energy of a new year. 

Yom Kippur is a lot like a Catholic confession, but it happens once a year. The holiday is a mix of contemplation, mindfulness, and contrition.  Ultimately, we apologize for the sins we've committed against ourselves, our communities, our friends, and our faith.  Also important is the promise to do better next year.  On top of repenting, we fast (no food or water) for a full day to make sure we're mindful.  

via Dry Bones

It's interesting how little human nature has changed in the past several thousand years. The list of sins is just as relevant today as I imagine it was back then. Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments, and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

To help drive the importance of the day, we ceremoniously read a poem called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt because it's a powerful read, regardless of faith. 

Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor) or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.  Your choices about these things have very real power to create the experience and environment you will live in during the next year.

This year, my local Synagogues are closed due to the pandemic. As a result, I happen to be in Cabo for today. As I look at a photo I took, I find myself thinking about that lesson - that we have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.

 

The picture is just a picture.  The story you tell about it (or what it means to you) is actually more important than the image itself.

One could lament that the sun is going down just as easily as they could celebrate the beautiful sunset.  Someone could complain about the rough desert terrain or decide to notice its natural beauty.  You could complain about the heat and humidity or jump in the ocean to cool off.  You could struggle with how difficult it is to get there or appreciate how nice it is to be somewhere so remote and secluded.  In every case, the choice is yours ... this is “free will”.

 

In addition, some might say that it is wrong that I was in Cabo at the start of Yom Kippur. It reminds me of a story.  

 

Someone asks their religious leader if they can smoke during prayer time ... consequently, they are told “of course not” and reminded to take prayer time seriously and to treat it as a sacred moment.  Meanwhile , a different person says “while walking along the beach, and smoking, they feel close to God and start to pray ... they ask their religious leader if this is OK ... with that framing, the answer is “of course” because it is always a good time to feel close to the Divine and to pray.

 

Progress starts by telling the truth.  And Yom Kippur is a time to honest reflection. Equally important to recognizing and repenting for your sins, is recognizing and appreciating that you did good and well ... for yourself, your friends and family, or your community. 

All-in-all, it's a nice framework that highlights how you have grown; and, it also shows where you have room to grow. 

100 Days Left

We're currently bringing in the Jewish New Year, but we also have just under 100 days before the normal New Year. Many will spend those 100 days stressing about the upcoming elections, grumbling about how 2020 sucked and pretending it's the universe's fault they didn't accomplish what they set their mind to ... but, 100 days is a great amount of time to sprint, to make a change, to end the year on a high note. 

That's plenty of time to make this your best year yet. What can you do? What will you do?

I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  Best wishes for a great day, and an even better year!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 27th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• AI Should Change What You Do, Not Just How You Do It. (HBR)
• Twitter CEO Explains How Bitcoin, Blockchain Will Revamp Its Business. (Decrypt)
• The 12 Best Fitness Apps Right Now. (GearPatrol)
• Scientists are Preparing to Implant the World's First Human Bionic Eye that Will Allow the Blind to See. (AOL)
• Freezing Bodies for Reanimation' in China and Why the Country's Cryonics Tech Has the Potential to Leapfrog the West. (South China Morning Post)

 

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• The 12 Richest Tech Billionaires in the World Ranked. (South China Morning Post)
• Wall Street is about to Start Trading Water for the First Time. (EuroNews)
• Why Investors Want 50% of Stocks above 200-Day Moving Average. (SeeItMarket)
• A Complete Mess: Traders Fear Volatility Long after Election Day. (Bloomberg)
• Wall Street's Campaign Donations to Biden are Five Times Larger Than Those Going to Trump. (CNN)

 

 

Do You Agree to These Terms?

One of the biggest lies on the internet (and there are too many lies to count) is "I have read and agree to the terms of service(ToS)."

There is a plug-in that might help.

Terms of Service Didn't Read has summaries of most ToS, ratings for their user-friendliness and a browser plug-in so when you're about to sign one you can make sure it's safe. 

via TOSDR

Unfortunately, many of the ToS tell you that they're going to use your data, sell it to spammers, etc. For example, I talked about how a shadowy Russian company was behind FaceApp and owned the rights to photos you uploaded. 

Luckily, not every clause in a ToS is legal, and won't necessarily hold up in court - but that doesn't mean you shouldn't be protecting yourself. 

So, check out TOSDR, it's not perfect ... but it's probably better than nothing.

AI & Intellectual Property With Rich Goldstein

It has been a crazy ride.

I studied psychology and philosophy at Duke in the early '80s.  Then I got both an MBA and a law degree at Northwestern University in Chicago. 

My first job out of school was doing corporate and securities work at a law firm in Dallas.  By the early '90s, I knew that I was an entrepreneur. 

Regardless, the path seemed random as I was going down it ... but looking back, it all seems to make some form of sense. 

I recently did a podcast with a patent lawyer friend, Rich Goldstein. We talk about that, what it's like working with my son, the difference between practicing law and creating AI, innovation, and the role of Intellectual Property and its protection. 

I think it's a good listen. Check it out. 

 

The Growth of Home Fitness (and Fitness Tracking)

Home fitness isn't a new trend, but we've come a long way from the Aerobics videos of my youth ...

The technology of home workouts has also improved a lot, even before COVID-19 put it into overdrive. 

From YouTube channels with any type of workout you could look for, to simple machines for any type of workout you're looking for. 

I've shared articles before about some of my favorite tools

• Carol – An AI Fitness bike specializing in High-Intensity Interval Training
• Power Plate – Whole Body Vibration to help with stretching and bodyweight exercises
• x3 Bar – Resistance Bands to replace weightlifting equipment
• Tonal – A smart home gym

So, how has the quarantine affected the industry?

via VisualCapitalist

Worldwide, health & fitness app downloads have grown by 46%. With a mass majority of that being in India. On top of downloads, daily active users have also increased by 24% worldwide. 

Is Home Fitness Here to Stay?

Health & fitness apps have been a big part of my arsenal, far before social distancing was a thing, and they'll continue to be an important part of my future fitness plans. 

Many people prefer the gym/class environment for workouts, so home workouts will never represent a major proportion of the market, but it's non-trivial and continues to grow. 

More likely to continue to grow in use are the tracking and mindfulness apps. 

I like several guided meditation apps.

• Calm
• Headspace
• Pzizz

In addition, I like these too.

• Focus@Will (background music for different moods)
• Brain.FM (AI created music to enhance focus, relaxation, meditation, naps & sleep)
• Meditation Music (5-minute songs, inhale at the bell, exhale at the next bell ... repeat)
• Zen Wellness (courses about meditation, Qi Gong, etc.)
• Muse (brain sensing headband and app to help you know whether you are relaxing)

I also recommend:

• Hapbee – A device that lets you choose how to feel
• Apollo Neuro – Wearable wellness and stress relief
• 40 Years of Zen – This is a 5-day program that leverages neurofeedback technology and guidance to help you unlock and expand your potential.

For fitness tracking, I use: 

• Oura Ring (personal health tracker that specializes in detailed sleep tracking & Heart Rate Variability measurement)
• Whoop (similar fitness tracker but targeted towards athletes & recovery)
• Apple Watch

 

Let me know if there is something that I should add to the list.