Capitalogix

The Doomsday Clock Is Ticking

There are a number of destabilizing events that make me hope for peace, love, and prosperity.  There are increasingly dangerous active military conflicts, a contentious election in front of us, and a host of other issues related to the promise or peril associated with the clash between exponential technologies and human fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.

With that said, random worry isn't a good strategy.  I like to measure subjective things as objectively as possible.  With that in mind, this post discusses something called the Doomsday Clock.

The History of the Doomsday Clock

The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 (following the successful testing of the first atomic bomb by the United States) to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

In 1953, after both the US and Soviet Union tested hydrogen bombs, the clock was set at two minutes to midnight, which is the closest it has ever been to a global catastrophe.  In recent years, the clock has taken into account not only nuclear weapons but also climate change and other emerging threats.

The Significance of the Doomsday Clock in Modern Times

Today, the Doomsday Clock remains an important symbol of humanity's vulnerability and the need for urgent action to prevent a global disaster.  The clock serves as a reminder that we must work together as a global community to address existential threats facing our planet.

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board determines where to set the clock each year based on international events and scientific advancements.  As such, it provides an objective measure of how close we are to destruction.

Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the most significant existential threats to humanity includes:

1. Nuclear War: The threat of atomic weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not adequately regulated and controlled.

5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive.  Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.  But, this year, 2024, there was no shift. 

Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

via flowingdata

The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act. 

And necessity is often the mother of invention.

We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges. 

With collaboration among the brightest minds across the globe and private industry, we can solve even the world's most significant problems.

If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 18th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• OpenAI's Product Page for Sora – Their AI Model That Creates Video From Text (with Examples). (OpenAI)
• You Are Not Late to Artificial Intelligence. (TheAlgorithmicBridge)
• ‘Mental Time Travel' Can Help You Make Better Decisions. (LifeHacker)
• ‘The Alternative' is Just the Book Economists Should Read — And Won't. (Washington Post)
• Musk Says Putin Can't Lose in Ukraine, Opposes Further Funding – “Prolonging the War Does Not Help Ukraine.” (Bloomberg)

 

Trading Links:

• OpenAI Staff Granted Permission to Liquidate Shares at Astounding $86 Billion Valuation - Insider Report. (Cryptopolitan)
• What Sam Altman's Chimerical Trillions Say About AI Hype. (Axios)
• The US-China Chip War is Escalating. (Apricitas)
• In Memory of Byron Wien, Here Is a 2024 "Ten Surprises" Tribute. (BlueFoxAdvisors)
• How Big Is the Commercial Real Estate Mess in the U.S.? Expect Losses in the Trillions of Dollars Over Time. (TheInstitutionalRiskAnalyst)

 

An Early Look At The Upcoming Election

You know it's election season when Jon Stewart steps back in to host The Daily Show. 

Unsurprisingly, the antagonism and hatred from both sides of the fence are still in full force - now with extra boosts from fake news and AI's influence. 

Surprisingly (to me), the frontrunners are still Biden and Trump, despite them being 81 and 77, respectively ... or despite Trump's several cases against him and Biden's horrible approval ratings ... or ... (it seems like we could keep finding reasons to be surprised).

Truthfully, I am surprised neither party is running someone "better" in this election. 

It feels like almost everyone I talk with is voting for the "lesser of two evils," even though they know it may not serve the greater good.

Here is a chart showing third-year approval ratings of first-term Presidents since WWII.

 

I thought the last Presidential election was pretty interesting, but this one's shaping up to be even more so. If it were fiction, no one would believe it.

The most popular issue on people's minds is the economy, but we also have controversial issues around trust in the government, immigration, abortion, foreign policy, and even the fate of Democracy in America itself. 

For all the economic woes and complaints, the unemployment rate remains low, GDP growth is strong, and the S&P 500 recently hit record highs. Yet, Americans are still feeling it in their pockets as the price of goods has gone up. 

It is a good reminder that the "facts" are often less important than how it feels. 

It is still early, but what do you think will happen?

Going With The Flow: Functional Mapping

There’s a concept in design and transportation called Desire Paths. 

The desired path is the path that users take despite the intended path by the builder of a community or application. 

Here’s a great example. 

Reddit via itstartswithani

And, here’s a whole community forum focused on desire paths. 

It’s often easier to take advantage of human nature ... or just nature ... than fight against it. 

To that effect, I shot a short video on how this relates to your business and tech adoption.  I call it functional mapping.  Check it out. 

 

Understanding the natural path for both technology and your clients makes it easier to understand and anticipate the capabilities, constraints, and milestones that define your path forward.   That means you actually have to understand the different types of users and what they expect to do.

Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desired capabilities and automation.

It isn’t really about building the technology; rather, it is about supporting the desire.

You don’t have to get it right.  You just have to create momentum in the right direction.  This means that if you understand what is coming, you don’t have to build it … but you should figure out where you want to build something that will move things in the right direction.

You’ve probably heard me talk about how Capabilities become Prototypes.  Then, Prototypes become Products.  And ultimately, Products become Platforms.

This model is fractal.  That means it works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

SpaceX’s goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now ... but once it’s achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

It helps you anticipate which potential outcomes you want to accelerate.  Rather than simply figuring out the easiest next step … you have to figure out which path is the best next step to your desired outcome.

The world is changing fast!  I hope you’re riding the wave instead of getting caught in the riptide!

Natural Technologies

Nature can be pretty cool. 

It turns out that a lot of what we think humans "invented" was so "natural" that nature created it first.

For example, the British Planthopper has mechanical gears in its legs.

 

Or the fact that the T4 Bacteriophage looks like a lunar lander and has 20 sides.

via biology4u

Interestingly, some of man's greatest inventions are so innate that natural selection (or intelligent design) created them before we did. 

Want another example?

Hospital-acquired infections are diseases caught due to organisms people are exposed to at a hospital (or other healthcare-related areas). They account for over 99,000 deaths a year.

Because of that, R&D worked extensively to find bacteria-killing surfaces …. It turns out Dragonflies have been doing it for centuries.

Research companies (and dragonflies) have used nano-textured surfaces to create a "bed of nails" that destroys bacteria by puncturing the cell wall. 

If you like stuff like this, Check out this link on order vs. chaos.

 There is always opportunity around you … You just have to know where to look.

How To Make Real-Time Decisions

I recently came across an interesting technique that fighter pilots use to make fast and accurate decisions in high-stakes situations. 

The Air Force calls it an OODA Loop.

It is an iterative feedback model that Colonel John Boyd designed as a foundation for rational thinking in chaotic situations like dogfights.

It stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. 

via Wikipedia

Why do people use decision models?  Obviously, to make better decisions.  But really, they use models to create a process that avoids many of the mistakes or constraints that prevent good decisions.

You make countless decisions every day - and at a certain point, you reach decision fatigue.  It can be harder to make decisions when you are tired, after you've made too many, or when the intensity of the environment distracts or drains you. 

It's one of the reasons I rely on artificial intelligence.  Here are some others. 

• Best practice becomes standard practice. 
• It accounts for signal and noise.
• It attempts to quantify or otherwise make objective assessments, comparisons, and choices. 
• And, it often gives you a better perspective by letting you apply and compare different models or decision techniques to achieve the desired outcome.

Nonetheless, many algorithms are dynamic and adaptive automation of processes or strategies that humans have used successfully before.

So, let's take a closer look at the OODA Loop, which stemmed from analyzing many interactions between and among fighter pilots during battle and training. 

Observe

The first step is to observe the situation to build the most accurate and comprehensive picture possible.  The goal is to take in the whole of the circumstances and environment.  It's not enough to observe and collect information ... you must process the data and create useful meaning. 

It's the same with data collection for an AI system.  Ingesting or collecting data isn't enough.  You have to be able to apply the data for it to become useful. 

Orient

The second step is less intuitive but very important.  When you orient yourself, it becomes easier to recognize strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to identify how changing the dimensionality or perspective alters the outcome. 

This step reconnects you with reality in the context of your cognitive biases, recent decisions, and more.  For example, have you received new information since starting?

I think of this as carrying a map and pulling out a compass while exploring new lands.  Sometimes, you need to remember where you started, and sometimes, you need to make sure you're going where you think you are. 

Decide

The last two steps provide the foundation for taking action. 

When there are multiple decisions in front of you, observing and orienting help you choose wisely. 

In business and with AI, you can go through these loops multiple times. 

Act 

Finally, remember that the best-made plans mean nothing if you don't act on them. 

Once you've taken action, you can reobserve, reorient, and keep moving forward. 

Conclusion

Like most good mental models, The OODA loop works in many situations and industries.

Speed is often a crucial competitive advantage.  For example, knowing (and taking decisive action) while others are still guessing (and taking tentative action) is something I call time arbitrage. 

Said another way, you make progress faster by walking in the right direction than by running in the wrong direction. 

These processes (and technology) also help us grow more comfortable with uncertainty and uncomfortableness.  Markets are only getting more volatile.  Uncertainty is increasing.  But, when you have the ability to adapt and respond, you can survive and thrive in any climate. 

New Beginnings or Evolutionary Growth

Last week, I started getting “Happy Work Anniversary!” messages on LinkedIn ... and I was a bit confused because people kept mentioning 24 years. 

Twenty-four years ... That can’t be right.  Can it?

For context, here’s what I looked like around that time.

 

My eldest son (who’s now married with a baby) was in middle school.  I was just out of the events I described in my TEDx talk. 

However, depending on your definition, the 24th anniversary can be true or false.  Legally, the Capitalogix that exists today is distinct from the initial iteration.  Additionally, the company has expanded, its direction has shifted, and what was once a one-person operation has grown into a team of over 20 individuals focused on advancing and commercializing the field of Artificial Intelligence through something we call Amplified Intelligence (which is the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually improve performance).

Thinking back on the effort, the ideas, the people, the inventions, and even the purpose ... in some respects, it feels like change is the only constant.  However, there are certain things that remain unchanged.  It is by observing these unaltered elements that you can truly understand the essence of the thing itself.

It reminds me of the Ship of Theseus (also known as Theseus’ Paradox), which is a philosophical thought experiment that poses the question of whether an object that has had all of its parts replaced is still considered to be the same object.  It raises issues of identity, continuity, and change over time.  The concept can be applied to physical objects, living organisms, and even organizations or businesses.  It challenges our understanding of what it means for something to be fundamentally the same, and if an object can remain unchanged despite undergoing significant changes over time.

The name “Capitalogix” originated in 2000, and a surprising amount of the original “North Star” purpose still exists.  Looking back at my early notes and plans, I’m surprised by how much holds up despite 20+ years of passing ... but almost all of it has needed some course correction to adjust to changing tides.  

Regardless, it’s staggering to think about how long I’ve worked in A.I. (since 1991, when it was hard to spell A.I.) and how far we’ve come. 

If I had known how difficult it was going to be at the beginning, I would have probably never pursued it.  However, after experiencing the challenges and realizing how hard it is to make meaningful progress, I feel better that I did.  This is because I now know that we didn’t just create a competitive advantage – we learned how to create a sustainable competitive advantage.

It’s easy for people to focus on a capability; it’s another to make it industrial-grade, robust, reliable, and able to work in challenging conditions. 

They say that things that don’t kill you make you stronger.  It’s true for people, but it’s also true for technologies.  

Life (and Business) constantly expose us to conditions and opportunities that lead to new beginnings and evolutionary growth.

As I write this, I see it at Capitalogix as we pursue new possibilities and probabilities. 

We didn’t come this far — just to come this far!

What about you?

Onwards!

Ranking The Most Popular AI Tools

Last week, I shared some of the tools I've been using recently to help run my business and life. 

As we all know, several AI tools are taking the world by storm - notably ChatGPT, but others as well. 

It only took ChatGPT 5 days to reach a million users. But the whole AI tools market is growing at a surprising rate.

VisualCapitalist put together a nice infographic on the most popular AI tools of 2023. 

via VisualCapitalist.

I am familiar with some of the apps mentioned (such as Quillbot, Character.ai, or Hugging Face), but I don't use them. On the other hand, I had no prior knowledge of others (such as NovelAI, Janitor AI, and Civitai).  

It's remarkable how much of the market ChatGPT currently controls on its own. In 2023, it is estimated that ChatGPT attracted 14.6 billion visitors, or more than 60% of all AI tool visits.

With that said, it's a marathon, not a sprint. The "feel" of this AI market reminds me of the dot-com bubble times of the late 90s and early 2000s. Many products took the world by storm only to be overthrown by a more robust competitor. For example, consider how few early web browsers or search engines still exist. I suspect that will be true of many early leaders here, too.

It isn't sexy, but it is a safe bet that Google's Bard and Microsoft's Copilot will continue to grow because of investment, acquisition, and distribution.

Remember, new technologies lead to new products and new platforms ... and the current crop of these AI tools are still only at the beginning of their cycles. I anticipate that many innovative frontstage products like ChatGPT will gain greater importance and profitability (albeit with less prominence) as they move backstage to become the backbone or plumbing infrastructure of various other products and services.

The development of new technologies brings about the emergence of new products and platforms. 

AI capabilities and adoption are growing exponentially. It will be interesting to see what else stays on the list three years from now. 

Posts like these are helpful reminders to consider technology adoption and hype cycles.

It's only the beginning ... Onwards!

Predictions for 2024

At the beginning of 2022, I shared VisualCapitalist's predictions for the year, and then at the end of the year, we checked to see how well they did. 

Since they posted a 2024 version, I figured, why not do it again? 

via VisualCapitalist.

You can find forecasts anywhere ... but since they're basically guesswork and I don't know what data they are using or excluding, I don't spend much time on them.

That said, I found this infographic easy to look at and think about. So, it's as good a place to start as any. Also, VC draws from a database of 700 expert forecasts to make this chart. 

Some are pretty easy to predict - like GenAI's shift to text-to-video. Or, an increase in lawsuits and regulations around AI. Others are questionable. In the past few months, we've seen TikTok investing heavily in the growth of its e-commerce business. Insiders have stated they believe they're trying to compete with Amazon. We'll see how that goes?

On a positive note, it seems like most are predicting positive effects on the market & economy, including a decrease in inflation and interest rates, bonds on the way back, and record highs in the S&P 500.

I'd love to hear your predictions. What do you think?

Some New AI Tools I've Been Hearing Good Things About

At the core of Capitalogix's existence is a commitment to systemization and automation. 

Consequently, I play with a lot of tools.  I think of this as research, discovery, and skill-building.  There is a place for that in my day or week.  However, few of those tools make it into my real work routine.

Here is a list of some of the tools that I recommend.  I'm not saying I use them regularly ... but in some cases, I should (it reminds me of some exercise equipment I have). 

Since the late 90's, I've been collecting tools to make my business more efficient and my life easier. 

It's a little embarrassing, but my most popular YouTube video is an explainer video on Dragon NaturallySpeaking from 13 years ago.  It was (and still is) dictation software, but from a time before your phone gave you that capability. 

Today, I have more tools than I know what to do with, but here are a few that keep coming up in conversations. 

Daily.AI - AI Newsletters

We've launched a new newsletter that is AI-curated by Daily.ai.  It matches the tone and style of my newsletters, gets good engagement, and (honestly) looks much better than what we put out.

Our handwritten newsletters still do better on some metrics - but it's a nice addition and a promising technology. 

For transparency, our handwritten newsletters get around 45% opens, and 10% click-throughs and our new AI newsletter is averaging around 38% opens but around 30% click-throughs.  Our normal newsletter isn't focused on links - which is why the click-through isn't as good. 

That said, Daily.AI is a great tool that creates compelling two-way communication with your audience way easier and cheaper (time, money, and effort) than something similar done manually.

This is an example of how people won't get replaced by AI ... people will get replaced by people who use AI better. 

Opus.pro - AI Video Repurposing 

Opus.pro takes your long-form video content and cuts it into short-form content that you can post as teasers to other channels like YouTube Shorts, TikTok, or Instagram Reels. 

For me, I tend to do more long-form content naturally.  I go on a podcast, speak at a conference, or to a mastermind group.  I end up with a 30-minute+ video that I don't have the time or interest in using.  This tool allows me to find the best parts quickly - and still allows editing to make it perfect. 

For someone interested in really pursuing video, it's not worth it.  If you're interested in being present online, and not worried about making it your career, this is a great tool to streamline and systematize your process. 

Type.AI 

Type.AI is an interesting AI-first document editing tool.  At its core, Type is a faster, better, and easier way to write.

A lot of people are using chat GPT for some editing.  Type is a good example of a next-generation tool that incorporates ChatGPT and other LLMs under the surface.  It is aware of what you are doing and lets you know what it can do. 

Type jumpstarts the creative process and banishes the blank page.  Underneath its gorgeous UI are powerful features for generating ideas, querying your document, experimenting with different models, and easily formatting your work.

The point is that with a tool like this, you don't have to be good at prompt engineering.  The tool does that for you – so you can focus on the writing.

GetVoila.AI 

Voilà is an all-in-one AI assistant in a browser extension.  That means it goes with you everywhere you go on the web and supercharges your browser by making it use ChatGPT to do what it does best without you having to do more than check what is available.

 

Voilà simplifies the process of working with the content of websites and URLs, making it easy to convert them into various types of content, summarize them, or extract key information.  For example, if I am watching a YouTube video, I can right-click and choose "Summarize" - it creates a short video summary from the transcript.  Or, while writing this sentence, a simple right-click lets me choose: Improve, Fix grammar, Make longer, Make shorter, Summarize, Simplify, Rephrase, or Translate.

 

This is more useful than I thought.  I use it well ... then forget about it.  When I use it again, I often find that it got better.  I think you will find that with a lot of the tools these days.

 Don't worry about how well you use tools like this.  It is enough that you get better at using tools like these to accomplish what you really want.

Explore a little.  Then, let me know what you found worth sharing.