Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 1st, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

 

• When that AI Company' Isn't Really an AI Company. (TechCrunch)
• The Catholic Church Proposes AI Regulations that Protect People'. (TheVerge)
• Musicians Algorithmically Generate Every Possible Melody, Release Them to Public Domain. (Vice)
• Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Suspends Pilgrimage Visas Amid Coronavirus Concerns. (Worldview)
• Warren Buffett Says He Prefers Mike Bloomberg in the Democratic Presidential Race. (CNW)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Dow Loses 12% for Week on Coronavirus Panic; Fed Says It Will Act 'Appropriately'. (TheStreet)
• These are the Only 7 Stocks in the S&P 500 that Rose While the Market Plunged. (MarketWatch)
• Gold Prices Tumble Amid Reports of Margin Calls. (Investing)
• Nearly 40% of Europeans in Their Late 20S Still Live at Home. (Quartz)
• MIT Published a List of the 9 MegaTrends that Will Shape the World in 2030. Here's What They All Have in Common. (Inc)

Mountains Out of Molehills: Media Inflammation

The U.S. stock market had a rough week (like most markets around the world). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (the "Dow") had one of its worst weeks since the financial crisis in 2008, losing about 12%.

Still, the Dow is near its historical highs, and the fundamentals of our economy aren't in freefall (as one might guess with all the fearmongering). 

As I mentioned last week, many attribute the drop to the Coronavirus and its potential effect on trade, travel, industry, etc.  For example, several prominent news sources released (hopefully erroneous) articles stating that 38% of beer drinkers wouldn't drink Corona due to the Coronavirus.  Yup!

There are two key points I want to make. The first is that the media tends to make mountains out of molehills (because their job is to get you to pay attention to their news) and the second is that markets are random to you or me. 

Mountains Out of Molehills

It shouldn't come as a surprise to you that the media exacerbates situations. Whether it's a terrorist attack, a virus scare, or a bad trading day - the media posts headlines and teasers designed more to attract attention than to educate. 

The interactive graphic below shows the news cycle for things ranging from asteroids and vaccines to ebola and zika.  An interesting reminder.

(Click To View Interactive Infographic) via InformationIsBeautiful

The result is hysteria, fear and greed, or discretionary mistakes ... all things better avoided. 

Regardless, when it comes to trading, if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one.  And it's tough to find a "signal" in a sea of noise. 

via Gaping Void

Markets Are Random

Experienced traders have a saying: it isn't the news that matters ... what matters is the reaction to the news.  Consequently, part of the reason that markets seem random is that you or I can't predict the market's changes (accurately and reliably) based on the information we have.  In other words, if market profits were easily captured by being smart and well informed, professors wouldn't teach because they'd be on their yachts. 

This past week,  you could attribute the losses to fear of the Coronavirus ... but there are also fears around the 2020 election, the fact that stocks were already considered overvalued, fears of recession, and more.

You don't know how much was caused by program trading or bots reacting to bots – or by a host of less obvious potential causes or contributing factors, like businesses either liquidating or taking positions in the regular course of their business (meaning as bona fide purchasers rather than speculators).

The truth is no one knows for sure what caused the drop.

Nonetheless, one thing that you should know is that volatility and noise will increase.  It is almost inevitable.

Humans have a need for certainty and understanding. So when we don't know why something happens we find stories to fill in those gaps. But they're just that ... They're stories. We can theorize all day long about what's moving the market, but it makes no difference.

It's not what happens that matters, it is what you do that matters. 

Onwards!

Coronavirus Tracker

Fears around the Coronavirus continue to mount. Quarantine of the superbug has been tough ... the disease shows up in more countries every week, and the death toll is likely being underreported in China. 

That being said, the death toll compared to the "recovered" toll should give you hope that if you're relatively healthy and get proper treatment, your survivability rate is very high.

Here is an interactive tracker if you're curious to see a visual representation of it's spread.

 

1hakr via Visualist.io

Keeping yourself at a low risk of contraction is pretty simple. You know what you need to do to avoid it, but, as a reminder: wash your hands, don't share food/drinks with strangers, avoid touching your face, and don't go to China till you believe the "all clear."

How do you believe this will affect the markets and economy?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading, February 23rd, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What It Means to Be Human in the Age of AI. (CNet)
• Mommy Can't Talk Right Now She's Dopamine Fasting. (TheCut)
• I Went to a High-End Psychedelic Retreat to Address My Anxiety. (Vice)
• Inside the World of High-End Coffee | Annals of Obsession | the New Yorker. (YouTube)
• Most Dietary Supplements Don't Do Anything. Why Do We Spend $35 Billion a Year on Them? (WashPost)

 

Trading Links:

• Why Cryptocurrency Markets Defy the Laws of Economics. (BU)
• Michael Bloomberg Has Taken Andrew Yang's Place as the Cryptocurrency Candidate. (TechReview)
• It Has Never Been Easier to Launch a New Brand. (Economist)
• Elon Musk's SpaceX to Raise $250 Million, Valuing It at $36 Billion. (Uk)
• Elon Musk Says He'll Put a Million People on Mars by 2050. (Futurism)

Is China Going to Overtake the US In Artificial Intelligence?

Currently, the US has a stronghold on Data Science and Artificial Intelligence (collectively, "AI") innovations and advancements.

Meanwhile, China has been creating more papers than other countries about their AI advancements and innovation ... however, a closer examination of the research suggests that many of their papers are of low quality, misleading, or even fraudulent. 

Will China overtake the US in AI supremacy? If you look at their population along with their government's intent and directive towards AI leadership, it seems possible. 

 

via TheDataScientist

On a superficial level, I believe that the majority of advances in AI will prove to be beneficial – but there needs to be a balance between the promise and the peril of un-checked or un-regulated AI.  In other words, AI ethics, patriotism, and global balance of power considerations apply to a powerful force likely to terraform the planet.

Absolute power has been shown to corrupt ... I worry about the types of AI applications powerful nation-states will focus on, and whether they'll be truly forthcoming with breakthroughs or whether we are approaching a new cold war based around AI and Quantum Supremacy. 

When you're doing something new and groundbreaking, it's human nature to want to keep it to yourself. It seemingly protects your interests, it prevents competition, obstruction or poaching. As well, AI is going to create an enormous impact on economic development, the nature of work, and competitive dynamics, so many governments are rushing to establish interest, education programs, and AI frameworks within their borders.

via Deloitte Insights

AI Isn't a Zero-Sum Game (Unlike Trading)

The reality is that AI has the chance not only to transform industries but societies as well. The benefits of properly executed AI are far-reaching and global. 

When you share, maybe not the individual application, but the over-arching lesson or breakthrough, you enable all adopters to learn and grow. 

Internally, in starting to write my book - Next on Wall Street - I spend a lot of time talking about our approach to building the right workforce, using the right data,  overcoming challenges, approaching AI from the right perspective, and, of course, using the right tools. 

Collaboration is an important engine for creation. Having a lead is important ... but at the beginning of a long journey, making progress and building momentum is crucially important.

via Deloitte Insights

AI has a lot of green fields ahead. 

Onwards!

Ending The World With A Paperclip

Every week I send out an e-mail on Fridays with 20 light links and 20 market-moving links. If you're not getting that e-mail, you can sign up here. On Sundays, I send out our weekly commentary (which this article is a part of, along with 5 new light links and 5 new market-moving links (you can sign up here).

My son sees the links before they're posted. He was interested in one of this week's links - The Way the World Ends: Not with a Bang But A Paperclip. 

As a result, he played the game Paperclips to completion.  While he characterizes it as “wasting a whole night,” I think it gives us insight into the addictive nature of clicker games and into how the world as we know it could end with a paperclip. 

There are spoilers ahead, so if you intend on wasting three hours on a browser game, you may want to skip this article ... no, you're good? OK, here it is. 

Frank Lantz via Decision Problem

The game starts with you clicking a button to create paperclips but quickly spirals from there. Through setting up automation to create paperclips and then to have it start automatically buying the wire for you, you begin focusing on other projects - specifically creating a better trading algorithm to leverage the money you're making and improving your company's AI and Quantum Computing capabilities. 

Hmm, starting to sound familiar ...

Initially, your AI is focused purely on maximizing paper clip demand and production.  It can increase marketing to increase demand and make your autoclippers more efficient to produce more paperclips per unit wire. If you look at the projects in the above screenshot you can see projects like: 

• Full Monopoly - Establish full control over the worldwide paperclip market
• Global Warming - A robust solution to man-made climate change
• HypnoDrones - Autonomous aerial brand ambassadors

Projects like curing cancer or solving global warming gain trust and allow you to invest more money in processors and memory (which end up setting you up to take over the world.)

Fast forward to Zach beating the game ...

Frank Lantz via Decision Problem

When you release the HypnoDrones all of the resources become available for Paperclip production, and you gain full autonomy. Your inner benevolent dictator feels satisfied and your mother’s expectations for your potential are partially fulfilled.

At this point in the game, Zach had created less than half a billion paperclips but was worth several billions of dollars. It took him 2 hours and 44 minutes to beat the game. 

Is it a game, a parable, a prediction – or an advanced intelligence’s test of human nature?

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 16th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Growth Mindset vs. Fixed Mindset: Which One Do You Have? (Addicted2Success)
• 5 Soon-to-Be Trends in Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning. (Forbes)
• How Many Hours of Sleep is Enough? Age Chart Shows What You Need to Feel Rested. (Inverse)
• The Way the World Ends: Not with a Bang But a Paperclip. (Wired)
• Drinking Alcohol Every Day Can Speed up Brain Aging by One Week Per Session, According to a Study of More Than 17,000 People. (Insider)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Tesla Stock is Soaring. Madness or Visionary Investing? (APNews)
• The Decade That Completely Transformed Venture Capital. (Quartz)
• The 13 Hottest IPOs to Watch for in 2020. (Kiplinger)
• The Edison of the Slot Machines. (TheParisReview)
• Elon Musk's Mind-reading Technology Could Be about to Take a Big Leap Forward. (ZDNet)

Pay-To-Play: Bloomberg 2020

Mike Bloomberg is spending an astonishing amount on his presidential run. Something you can do when you're a billionaire.

Bloomberg is worth approximately $62B, so while most campaigns are being run on donations, he's outstripping them purely with his own bank account. 

via theimpossiblesalad

 

He's outspent everyone else in the Democratic field combined. His most recent stunt was a major social media push. 

He leveraged several of the largest accounts on Instagram by collaborating with a company called - Meme2020. I wish that was a joke. 

 

 

From the NYT, "Memers" include: 

 @MyTherapistSays, @WhitePeopleHumor, @TheFunnyIntrovert, @KaleSalad, @Sonny5ideUp, @Tank.Sinatra, @ShitheadSteve, @adam.the.creator, @moistbudda, @MrsDowJones, @TrashCanPaul, @cohmedy, @NeatDad, @FourTwenty, @GolfersDoingThings, @DrGrayFang, @MiddleClassFancy and @DoYouEvenLift.

 

Those accounts reached a purported 60 million followers. They received $150 per post.

The content is one of those  "stranger than fiction" experiences, where the posts are so surreal that the creators have to acknowledge "yes this is really sponsored by Mike Bloomberg."   

This approach, and Bloomberg in general, raises several questions about running a race in 2020. 

Astroturfing and Memes

Remember, this is intended to sway public opinion in a political campaign. Bloomberg is a geriatric billionaire who has approximately 0% of the youth vote. While most of these memes mocked Bloomberg for being old and out of touch, the effort likely had the opposite effect. It's mildly insidious. 

These posts have nothing to do with demonstrating Bloomberg's electability. They don't deal with stop and frisk, or any of his other policies. They're running the campaign a football player might run for student body president in high school. Luckily, there's been pushback. 

The style of ads - astroturfing - where sponsors make their ads appear as if they're supported by grassroots participants, isn't new. But, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have done much better with seemingly authentic content driven by meme culture. 

The question to ask about Bernie and Donald's success with the internet is, how much is authentic and how much is manufactured?

Are We Creating A Plutocracy?

Michael Bloomberg's campaign has crossed over $350MM in spending across channels. He went from a nonexistent option, to earnestly in the running through ubiquity.  

It's worth asking the question "Can our democracy be bought?"

via Business Insider

A plutocracy is when a government is run by the wealthy elite. To a certain degree, money is power, and the wealthy's effect on the world is unavoidable. The inverse is also true, with influence and drive, money often follows.  The issue comes when the wealthy are the only influence, and when that money becomes the deciding factor in electability.

It's hard to beat nearly unlimited money working in partnership with corporate support and media bias. The reality is, in the same way that corporations are people, they also have biases. Media companies undoubtedly influence the messaging you see. And, as impervious as we believe we are, the messaging we see influences the reality we perceive. 

My takeaway for you is not to be for or against any candidate; it's to be pro-democracy and pro-meritocracy. 

I hope we vote on the issues instead of just the personalities.

Evaluate which issues are most important to you and which candidates best support those issues. Here's a link to Donald Trump's positions, and a link to the positions of the Democratic candidates.

I'm curious to see who wins the Democratic primary, and what that means for the election. 

Who you got?

Do you think Bloomberg has a chance?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 9th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Humans are Hardwired to Dismiss Facts that Don't Fit Their Worldview. (FastCompany)
• Timeless Truths about Disruptive Innovation. (Forbes)
• 98.6 Degrees Fahrenheit Isn't the Average Anymore. (Wall Street Journal)
• Apps Could Soon Predict When You'll Die: the Science of How. (Inverse)
• Google Keeps a Scary Amount of Data on You. Here's How to Find and Delete It. (CNet)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Why We're Failing to Regulate the Most Powerful Tech We've Ever Faced. (VentureBeat)
• Goldman Sachs and Amazon May Soon Be in the Banking Business. (Quartz)
• Intercontinental Exchange Makes Takeover Offer for EBay.(Wall Street Journal)
• Macy's to Close 125 Stores and Slash 2,000 Jobs Over Next Three Years. (USAToday)
• Godfather' of Technical Analysis Says Stock-market Downturn is Going to Get Worse: I am Looking at a 10% Drop Maybe a Little Bit More'. (MarketWatch)

 

 

 

Events & The Stock Exchange (1990 - 2018)

We all understand that events affect the stock market. Predicting what events will affect the stock market is an entirely different beast. 

Christian Spreafico put together an infographic website that tracks one key event per month, and that events effect on the monthly closure of the major stock exchanges. 

Events are split into categories: Politics, War, Terrorism, Calamity, Economy, Sports. 

At the top of the infographic, you can see the indexes' performance. Below, you can see the effect of the categories over time. 

The infographic starts with the US invasion of Panama, and ends with the beginning of the Yellow Vests Movement (a political movement for economic justice in France. 

via Christian Spreafico

It's fun to look through month-by-month and track the movement. 

An interesting inflection point I found started in July of 2010. At this point, the effect of politics on the global indices was negative. Issues with the European Union and Obama's election both caused drops. Since 2010, the effect of politics on the economy has been staggeringly positive (excluding the December 2015 UN Climate Change Conference). 

That includes a massive spike in the NYSE, NASDAQ, and TOKYO when Occupy Wall Street started in September of 2011.

Interest aside, I struggle with sharing this infographic because it's a gross oversimplification of the various driving factors of both our economy and markets. The biggest event isn't the only event and we don't know on which metric Christian decided which event was the biggest. In other words, correlation doesn't prove causation.

Nonetheless, if you don't take this too seriously, it's an interesting look back through time. 

What caught your eye?