The iPad is a revolutionary machine. I had a chance to spend time using one this weekend.
Overall, the experience was impressive and compelling.
The screen was beautiful. Looking at a website was
better than expected. For example, reading the New
York Times online (using their iPad App) was, in many ways, a
better experience than with the actual paper. Likewise, the e-book interface was stunning, easy
to use, and also more compelling than paper.
An Incredible "Consumption" Device.
At first glance, the iPad seems like an incredible tool to
consume media.
If you like to sit on your couch and read the paper or
magazines, the iPad will clearly make that better. Why? Because you will have
a much wider range of reading material available in one place, along
with access to multimedia, streaming video and internet links.
If
you play Sudoku or crosswords, again, the iPad will clearly
make that better. You will have access to extra games, more varieties of
games, and the ability to play against other people.
If you want to do research for something you're writing, it's the
perfect platform to browse through websites, blogs, or to launch a news reader to scan RSS
feeds.
You can even use it to watch videos and browse through pictures.
Here is a video review.
So, will I buy one? Not yet; and I do have some mixed feelings about this device.
So What Was "Wrong" With It?
To be sure, it is fast and powerful enough to do many of the things I do on a laptop.
However, I don't think that it's a great "creation" device (at least for me). In other words, I don't believe that I would want to use it to do extensive
writing, spreadsheet editing, or that type of "computer" work.
Also, its big beautiful screen makes the device "too big" for me to imagine carrying around.
One of the primary benefits of my iPhone is that I have it with me everywhere. That means I use it at the grocery store, while I'm waiting for my car at the car-wash, and to look up something during a business meeting or lunch. That wouldn't happen with the iPad.
Instead, I'd want one in my briefcase, another one in the living room, and another in the bedroom.
Again, the iPad seems designed to be a "consumption" device for media. As the price point comes down, I believe that consumers will buy several of them (much the way they have
TVs in different rooms).
Even though it so impressive and compelling, I will probably wait for its next generation before buying.
Who do you believe will do a better job, someone who takes a job because of the salary and benefits ... or someone truly inspired to accomplish the job's purpose?
Phrased that way, of course you know the answer. Still, how can you leverage this to better select customers and employees?
For example, Simon uses the story of Sir Ernest Shackleton to illustrate this concept. Shackleton was preparing to lead the first expedition across Antarctica in 1914. Legend has it that when seeking crew members for his journey, Shackleton placed the following ad in a newspaper:
"MEN WANTED FOR HAZARDOUS JOURNEY. SMALL WAGES, BITTER COLD, LONG MONTHS OF COMPLETE DARKNESS, CONSTANT DANGER, SAFE RETURN DOUBTFUL. HONOUR AND RECOGNITION IN CASE OF SUCCESS. - SIR ERNEST SHACKLETON"
When the expedition became stuck in the ice and could not be rescued for 22 months, not a single man was lost. The reason Simon gave for their unlikely survival was that Shackleton hired survivors that could deal with the situation and were aligned with the mission and purpose.
Can you imagine writing an ad like that to attract the right people to your cause?
Watch This Video.
Here is a video of Simon speaking at a Ted Conference. It is a great intro to his stuff.
What could turn this boy, who I happily go to Cowboys games with ...
... Into this boy?
When it happened, I posted this comment on Twitter: "My high-school age son came home today as a Platinum Blond. Hooray ... it makes guessing 'What's Next' so much more fun."
The responses were clever. One guy said: "Grounding is next, I expect." Someone else thought providing a little contrast would help. They said: "Here's what could be next ... Well, hope not ... but you never know". Click this link to see what they were referring to.
As it turns out, his blondness was something many football players did to celebrate their team making the play-offs and getting to play at the new Cowboys' Stadium.
Somehow (in this context) he looks better to me already ... But he doesn't have my burst of slowness, yet.
The point is that many things we initially perceive one way, may turn out to be something quite different all-together.
Here is a Story to Illustrate This Better ... And to Make it Stick.
This is another one of those stories I get, in different forms, from time-to-time.
It is called "Who Knows?" And sometimes it is told as an old story from China, while other times it is set during the American Civil War.
Nevertheless, "Who Knows?" is one of those "sticky"
stories that people like to re-shape and re-tell. So, with no further
ado, here it is for you to read for yourself.
Who Knows?
A farmer's horse ran away one day and all the villagers came to him saying, Oh what bad luck you've had! Your horse that you need to do your work is gone!
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and said, Good luck, bad luck. Who knows?
Several days later, the farmer's horse returned, followed by a herd of wild horses!
Oh what good luck you have, cried the same villagers! Not only has your horse returned, he has brought you many horses!
The farmer again shrugged his shoulders and said, Good luck, bad luck. Who knows?
One day not long after, the farmer's son was trying to break one of the wild horses. He was thrown off the horse and broke his leg.
Oh what bad luck you have! Cried the villagers. Now your son has a broken leg. Who will help you?
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and said, Good luck, bad luck. Who knows?
Not long after, as the son was recuperating, an army came through the village and took all the young males to fight in a war in another region. They did not take the farmer's son because of his broken leg.
Oh what good luck you have! The villagers cried once again. Your son has been spared being taken off to war because of his broken leg!
The farmer shrugged his shoulders and said, Good luck, bad luck. Who knows?
We Don't Know ... Yet.
This is a great story to remember when you're projecting far beyond the present moment ... or even when you're just worrying about what will happen next?
The things we think are good fortune can often have bad endings; and vice-versa. How many times have you looked back on what seemed like bad luck, when it happened, but later realized that it was the start of something better?
The
premise is that you should focus on the six things that make ideas
stick – which they summed up in the mnemonic "SUCCES" (yes, I know that
success has two "s"s at the end ... I didn't make up the acronym).
Here is what that represents:
Simple — find the core of any idea;
Unexpected — grab people's attention by surprising them;
Concrete — make sure an idea can be grasped and remembered later;
Credibility — give an idea believability;
Emotion — help people see the importance of an idea;
Stories — empower people to use an idea through narrative.
This is one of the few books that I recommend to traders regardless of
their expertise. There's something valuable in here for novice traders,
and perhaps even more for experienced traders.
The book was written by Brian Shannon. He is a professional trader; and he has developed quite a following on Twitter under the name "AlphaTrends".
Over the years, I've read many books about trading, the markets, and psychology. This book is a very nice combination of those topics, with some common sense thrown in for good measure.
What is in the Book?
The book starts by explaining some basic technical analysis concepts, like trends, moving averages, and support & resistance levels. Next, Shannon explores some of the common volume and market patterns (dealing with what to expect, and why it happens that way).
He also talks about the four stages of a stock's economic cycle.
Whether you call it expansion, peak, decline, and recovery ... or ...
accumulation, mark-up, distribution, and decline ... these four stages
show-up repeatedly, in different stocks and on different time
frames. Recognizing these cycles, and what they mean, is a good step forward in understanding the markets and which techniques are most
likely to work in a particular market condition.
The Disciplined Trader.
Along the way, he also does a nice job pointing out some of the nuances of trading, from risk management to exit strategies. This is a book that balances opportunity with defense and discipline.
I appreciate that the book focuses on the risk management side of trading, and doesn't pretend that there are magic indicators or trading systems. He stresses that risk management and position sizing are more important than what you choose to trade.
More Than Patterns: The Entry and Exit Matter Too.
Shannon states that his edge is based on observing the market clearly and objectively, then implementing trades based on what the market dictates. He teaches to initiate a trade only when you have a perceived edge and the price action confirms your theories.
He warns that the most difficult job on Wall Street is
picking tops and bottoms. There are lots of lower risk ways to trade. For example, while trend following is one of the techniques he advocates, he explains how using multiple time frames helps you identify trend alignment, which you can then use to help place trades during situations where you have a better edge.
Common Sense Insights About the Markets Isn't as Common You Might Hope.
As Shannon describes the different patterns, he does a nice job of
providing charts and narrative to explain what's happening, what some
buyers might be thinking, and why he takes (or avoids) trades at
different points in time.
He cautions that the market is not always rational and "reasons" are often revealed only after price has moved.
I like that reading this book feels like you're having a conversation
with someone who really knows what they're talking about. And as you
get further through the conversation, you realize that you're making
progress, learning new things, making new distinctions, and putting
things together in a way you hadn't thought of before.
This book doesn't talk down to readers; yet, it doesn't try to dazzle them either. It's well-written, balanced, and full of practical ideas and insights.
Bottom Line, it's certainly worth reading.
In addition, click the picture below to watch a recent video he did about what's happening in the market. It is a nice example of his trading style.
A decade ago, I couldn't have conceived the way we use trading technology today. The scope and scale of what's possible would have seemed like an improbable science fiction plot.
And that is the point. Some things seem like nonsense (or magic), until they become science and way things are done.
New Version 4 of Shift Happens Video
Fascinating presentation of facts, stats, and insights about how technology (like the internet) has been changing the world. Some of the tech that we take for granted is now at an inflection point because of the sheer mass of late-adopters.
It is worth watching and thinking about ... as someone living in these
changing times ... and in terms of how these changing times shift the
game and create a whole new set of opportunities.
While similar to the post on how Social Media is changing everything ... this presentation focuses on the bigger picture and has a more general business tone.
I like the new
design and the added content; yet, found the music a bit distracting.
We are moving forward more quickly than ever. What you thought you knew about the
economy, technology, innovation, and the world are probably
out-of-date. I can't wait to see what comes next.
People often ask me which trading books I'd recommend. I've read a lot of books about trading; and though some of them are good, only a handful stand out.
Many books are little more than marketing for their author or an
attempt to sell a "magic bullet" to less experienced traders. In contrast, both of Covel's books are simple enough that a novice would gain valuable information
from them; yet there's enough content and nuance that experienced traders also will
benefit from the books.
I've always loved Jack Schwager's "Market Wizard" book series. Covel's books are different than these because they deal with a narrower subject ... more deeply. Yet they are similar in terms of the value-added content they provide and how accessible they are; and that's high praise from me.
Covel has an engaging writing style. He keeps things interesting by telling stories rather than simply providing a mechanical "how-to" textbook. You get enough narrative and detail about accomplished traders to give you a sense of their personality, thought process, and some of the key ideas and distinctions that help make them successful. In addition, he backs-up his research with lots of data, charts, and links to additional information. This makes it easy for you to continue on your own.
What is In the Trend Following Book?
The "Trend Following" book:
explains the basics of trend following;
introduces you to the some of the great trend following traders;
explains the positives and negatives of the technique from a
performance standpoint;
shows how trend followers did during big
events, crashes, and panics;
and the later part of book focuses on the
human-nature side of trading, decision-making and building trading
systems.
I like how Covel segments his books logically, and in bite-size chunks. That means I can pick it up and read something without feeling compelled to start at the beginning and read all of it at once.
For example, I just opened Trend Following (to page 253) and saw "Five Questions for a Trading System". In this section he lays-out things to consider when evaluating a system. Examples include how the system determines which market (and how much exposure) to trade, as well as what constitutes entry and exit triggers? Then, in addition to explaining the basics, there are examples and quotes from other traders about the topic. And he extends the discussion to include emotional issues like how much money you intend to make, the level of time and effort you intend to invest, and the strengths and weakness you bring into the equation. Bottom-line, he goes out of his way to give you a thorough
understanding ... while getting his points across in an
easy-to-understand, informative, and interesting ways.
I found myself referring to both of these books several times in the past several months. If you're looking for something to read (or for some new ideas about trading and money management) I recommend you check out these books.
I
remember the first time I used TiVo. I instantly knew it was a
disruptive technology that would change how people watch TV. It's even
better than I thought I was. That doesn't mean it was a great
investment in the stock market; but it was a terrific investment in the
household.
And the ripples of this technology are still being felt
whether you're using TiVo or some other digital video recorder.
The Kindle is a Disruptive Technology Well-Placed In the Consumer Adoption Cycle:
Using
a Kindle reminds me of the first time I used TiVo. Only this might be
different, because we're several generations of technology further
along. And the world is ready for it.
The
Kindle 2 is ergonomic and reasonably fast. It is a great way to read.
It also has a built-in Internet connection, which means you have access
to content virtually anywhere. And it just so happens that the content
you want is the content Amazon sells.
Chances are you already go to Amazon's website. Because of
economies of scale, not only do they have a bigger inventory, they have
a bigger community of users who rate the books and write reviews of the
books.
A few years ago, Barnes & Noble and Borders tried to compete
with Amazon online. As a user, I went to the competitors' site once or twice ... but the
first time Amazon had the book I was looking for and the other site didn't ... or
the first time that Amazon had reviews of a product and the other site didn't -
well, that was all it took to stop going to those sites.
And
Amazon
continues to extend that edge with bigger inventories, more product
lines, and a truly mature delivery pipe. Their storefront and
shopping cart has been used tens of millions of times is an important
part of the value proposition.
Psychologically Smart, Part 1: Amazon Banks on Funny Money:
Once you have a profile on
Amazon, it doesn't feel like you're spending money. Casinos know the
token is treated differently than cash.
On the Kindle, Amazon makes it easy for you to
buy with "one click" over their "Whispernet" always-on data network.
So you don't hear or feel your money as it leaves your account. This is
brilliant.
Psychologically Smart, Part 2: Amazon Banks on Your Addiction to Instant Gratification:
Even better, though, is how they handle samples. It is already changing how I use Amazon. With the Kindle, I
have instant gratification.
I can find a book and download a sample in
seconds. In many cases, the Kindle version is dramatically cheaper than
the old paper version. So, I suspect that I'll be downloading samples
of many books. And when I like the author's writing style or find a few
ideas that I can use, I'm one click away from being able to read the
rest of it (even if I'm in a meeting or stuck at the airport).
Over
time, I might find that I prefer certain books in paper format. On
the other hand, I've been surprised by how likely I am to read a little
of this and a little of that.
And being able to have a whole bookshelf
is a pretty cool competitive advantage too.
I finally got around to reading this book, and it was worth it. This
review has links to videos and related material to help you get more
from the book. Bottom-line: It was fun and easy-to-read ... with short
chapters and memorable stories that make practical points.
Magic, Markets and the Mind ... A Little Back-Story.
Magic fascinated me when I was younger. I loved learning new and cool illusions. There's something satisfying about seeing behind the curtain, and understanding how it works.
Now, as an adult, I'm struck with how similar that is to my fascination with understanding stock markets and trading techniques. Of course, increased skill in this area is potentially rewarding financially. But there also is something intellectually pleasing about believing you can see and understand what's really happening in the markets.
Taking that a bit further, it's not surprising that people spend so much time and money trying to understand how the mind works. Our brains didn't come with a user's manual; though sometimes it would be useful to have one to help understand why something is happening or
how to get a different result.
Some aspects of my mind that truly amaze me, while other parts of my mind confound me. Have you ever asked yourself: How can someone so smart be so dumb, at the same time? I suspect that most people have.
Obviously that is why there are whole industries that help shine a light into that darkness. Whether it's through personality or temperament testing, learning to use NLP, or finding some other way for us to optimize our performance or understanding ... people want insights and answers.
That is why I'm happy to review the book Predictably Irrational. It was interesting and fun; and it provides some insights worth having. Think of it as a few of the missing chapters from our Owner's Manual.
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions.
When it comes to making decisions in our lives, we think were in
control. We think we're making smart, rational choices. But are we?
In a series of illuminating, often surprising experiments, Professor Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in rational ways.
His book, Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape
Our Decisions, contains an interesting mix of psychology and economics, he calls "behavioral
economics". The main point of the book is that while irrational behavior is a
part of human nature, people tend to behave irrationally in a predictable fashion.
Consequently, Ariely suggests that we would be better off if we designed systems to compensate for our limitations. With that in mind, this
book can change the way you interact with the world, one decision at a
time.
Why Smart People Do Dumb Things:
Blending
everyday experience with research, he explains how
expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly
illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities.
Not only do we make
astonishingly simple mistakes every day, we make these same types
of mistakes, repeatedly.
We consistently overpay, underestimate, and
procrastinate.
We fail to understand the profound effects of our
emotions on what we want. And
We overvalue what we already own.
Yet
these misguided behaviors are neither random nor senseless. They are
systematic and predictable - thus, making us predictably irrational.
Here is a brief video that explains more about how you can use behavioral economics to combat the Predictably Irrational.
The Book Illustrates Some of the Ways We Exercise Bad Judgment in the Economics of Life.
There are a lot of interesting tidbits in this book. For example, the book explains why cautious people make poor decisions when excited, or why
you enjoy the more expensive option over its cheaper counterpart.
One study in the book shows that Cheap is Good; But Free Seems Better. When asked if they’d like a 15-cent Lindt truffle or a one-cent Hershey’s Kiss, 73% of people buy the truffle. However, simply drop a penny off the price of each - so ... a 14 cent truffle or a free Hershey’s Kiss - and only 31% choose the Lindt. Is eating the chocolate you don’t really want worth saving a penny? Probably not; but it is human nature.
According to Ariely, we should re-examine and re-cast our understanding of economics to reflect the systematic (and unsurprising) irrationality of human nature. Ariely argues that greater understanding of previously ignored or misunderstood forces (emotions, relativity, and social norms) that influence our economic behavior brings a variety of opportunities to better predict individual motivation and consumer choice, as well as economic and educational policies.
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