Can Humans Predict The Future?

New technologies fascinate me ... As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

Ray Kurzweil (who is a well-respected futurist, inventor, and entrepreneur) optimistically predicts accelerating returns and exponential progress, where the technological advancements experienced in the 21st century will be vastly more significant and disruptive than those in previous centuries. Kurzeil believes: “The next century won’t feel like 100 years of progress—it will feel like 20,000."

However, there is a tension between our ability to imagine grand futures and our struggle to execute the how—the messy, uncertain work of getting there.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a noted expert on randomness, probability, complexity, and uncertainty) reminds us that, “We often overestimate what we know and underestimate uncertainty.” There is a risk that “continuous forward motion” sometimes leads to dead ends and that speed without thoughtful direction can be dangerous. This is true in part because technology adoption is often more about human nature than the absolute value of technology. 

This post is about embracing the paradox of accepting both the value of vision and the discipline of small, progressive steps.

Dreaming vs. Doing

Recognize that the future is co-authored by dreamers and doers.

To get us started, here is a video, put together by Second Thought, that looks at various predictions from the early 1900s. It is a fun watch – Check it out. 

 

via Second Thought

The Fascination With and Challenges of Prediction

It’s interesting to look at what they strategically got right compared to what was tactically different. 

In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content. This concept has become a reality through AI-powered chatbots like ChatGPT, which can provide customized information based on user inputs.

Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to “turn off the button.” 

In 1966, media futurist Marshall McLuhan envisioned a form of digital research eerily similar to the customized queries now answered by AI. Then he makes a surprising admission about why he studies technological change—with a lesson I think many need to hear. pic.twitter.com/yEBJv95GvP

— Benjamin Carlson (@bfcarlson) March 22, 2023

Prophecy vs. Navigation

While we revere “prophetic” moments, most successful outcomes arise from continuous adjustment—not perfect foresight.

Peter Drucker famously said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

I’ll say it a different way ... It’s more useful to view innovation as navigation, rather than prophecy.

Like evolution, Success isn’t about strength or certainty—it’s about the ability to adapt quickly and course-correct as conditions change. This mindset urges leaders to embrace agile, resilient strategies that can respond rapidly to emerging opportunities and threats.

With that said, activity is not progress if it doesn’t lead you in the right direction. There are times when continuous course-correction can lead a team in circles. Pausing for periodic reflection and creating feedback loops helps prevent innovation drift. 

While not all predictions are made equal, we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared to the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this video on the internet from 1995 seems downright prophetic. 

 

via YouTube

The Distinction Between Envisioning Outcomes and Creating Practical Paths to Them.

There’s a lesson there. It’s hard to predict the future, but that doesn’t mean you can’t skate to where the puck is moving. Future success goes to those who can quickly sense shifts, reorient, make decisions, and take action.

Even if the path ahead is unsure, it’s relatively easy to pick your next step, and then the next step. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

In Uncharted Territory, It’s Better to Use a Compass Than a Map

The distant future may be fuzzy, but it’s our willingness to keep moving—and keep learning—that tips the odds in our favor.

Reflect on the value of looking ahead, not for certainty but for direction.

Don’t worry if you can’t see your intended destination. Just focus on your next step and trust the journey.

Remember, there is always a best next step.

Onwards!