Fertility rates are dropping and life expectancy is rising, basically across the globe. On the surface, not explicitly bad. It's great that improvements in healthcare, technology, and quality of life are resulting in a larger senior population.
In 1980, the average person was 26.5 years old. Today, the average person is 33.6 years old.
Meanwhile, population growth has halved in the same time period.
Based on this chart, the global population would start declining in 2085, as the average age rises to 42. By 2100, the global population will begin declining.
Of course, there's variation depending on the country.
Most countries are thinking about how to increase fertility rates. If fertility rates decline, and your population lives longer, you end up with a larger percentage of the population that cannot or does not work anymore. That results in more expenditure - especially in pension and healthcare systems - without an accompanying increase in GDP or productivity.
It seems unlikely that something won't dramatically affect these trends over the next 60 years.
Even if expenditure becomes a non-issue, countries are unlikely to be happy with declining population growth, in part because of declining production resources and tax income, but also because of diminished global power.
What do you think?
Comments
The World Is Getting Older ... You Are Too
We're on the cusp of a major demographic shift.
Fertility rates are dropping and life expectancy is rising, basically across the globe. On the surface, not explicitly bad. It's great that improvements in healthcare, technology, and quality of life are resulting in a larger senior population.
In 1980, the average person was 26.5 years old. Today, the average person is 33.6 years old.
Meanwhile, population growth has halved in the same time period.
Based on this chart, the global population would start declining in 2085, as the average age rises to 42. By 2100, the global population will begin declining.
Of course, there's variation depending on the country.
Most countries are thinking about how to increase fertility rates. If fertility rates decline, and your population lives longer, you end up with a larger percentage of the population that cannot or does not work anymore. That results in more expenditure - especially in pension and healthcare systems - without an accompanying increase in GDP or productivity.
It seems unlikely that something won't dramatically affect these trends over the next 60 years.
Even if expenditure becomes a non-issue, countries are unlikely to be happy with declining population growth, in part because of declining production resources and tax income, but also because of diminished global power.
The World Is Getting Older ... You Are Too
We're on the cusp of a major demographic shift.
Fertility rates are dropping and life expectancy is rising, basically across the globe. On the surface, not explicitly bad. It's great that improvements in healthcare, technology, and quality of life are resulting in a larger senior population.
In 1980, the average person was 26.5 years old. Today, the average person is 33.6 years old.
Meanwhile, population growth has halved in the same time period.
Based on this chart, the global population would start declining in 2085, as the average age rises to 42. By 2100, the global population will begin declining.
Of course, there's variation depending on the country.
Most countries are thinking about how to increase fertility rates. If fertility rates decline, and your population lives longer, you end up with a larger percentage of the population that cannot or does not work anymore. That results in more expenditure - especially in pension and healthcare systems - without an accompanying increase in GDP or productivity.
It seems unlikely that something won't dramatically affect these trends over the next 60 years.
Even if expenditure becomes a non-issue, countries are unlikely to be happy with declining population growth, in part because of declining production resources and tax income, but also because of diminished global power.
What do you think?
Posted at 09:35 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Travel | Permalink
Reblog (0)