Capitalogix

Trump Immigration Ban Sparks DFW Protest

Trump signed his executive order on refugees while I was in Asia. 

I got back today ... and, yes, they let me back in the Country.  

That didn't surprise me ...  but this did ... there were thousands of protesters at DFW Airport. 

 

How do you think it will play out?

The Dow Just Broke 20,000

In 2016, we saw some decent pull-backs and volatility.

Then Donald Trump was elected President.  

On November 22nd, the Dow reached 19,000 ... and in only 42 days, it's broken 20,000. That's the second-fastest rise ever.

Coincidence?

 

 via WSJ

With 30 components providing point value ... the 5 "heavyweights" this year are: Boeing, IBM, 3m, United Healthcare and Home Depot.

Are the markets  responding to Trump's consistency with his campaign messages?  Just happy to have some hope in change?

So, as the presidency continues, will the trend keep going up?

What do you think?

 

Related articles

Dow hits 20000 on revived Trump rally, earnings

The internet is fact-checking Trump's first UK interview

The Inauguration of Donald Trump by Vice News

Market Confidence Remains High Despite Glitch

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - January 29th, 2017

With the explosion of Alternative Facts and Fake News ... It's important to remember to verify what you read. 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Each Side of the Partisan Divide Thinks the Other is Living in an Alternate Reality. (The Conversation)
• Check out this Automated Resume Builder (It Could Help Former President Obama Get a Job). (Inc)
• Cybersecurity is Everybody’s Business. (Burrus)
• 25 CEO’s List 20 Things that Keep Them up at Night. (LeadershipFreak)
• Japanese Toilet Industry Agrees to Standardize Complex Bidet Controls. (TheVerge)

 

 

Trading Links:

• What Does the World Expect of a Trump Presidency? (The Conversation)
• The SEC's Reaction to High Frequency Trading. (QuantNews)
• US Jobless Claims down to 1970S Levels at 234,000 - about as Good as It Gets. (Forbes)
• SpaceX’s Leaked Finances Show Elon Musk is Betting Big on Satellite Internet. (Quartz)
• Fed's Yellen Says She's Upbeat about Short-term Economic Outlook. (Reuters)

Do We Still Need Humans?

In my office, we use a lot of what seems like "futuristic" artificial intelligence approaches to understanding financial markets. Most of my team are technical or data-science specialists that develop and drive the systems that create our systems. 

Pretty soon, we may start to question where using humans is still smart or cost-effective. 

In the meantime, I'm fascinated by what is becoming possible ... and how, even when the A.I. is little more than an elegant use of brute force, incredible results are becoming commonplace.

MIT has been looking at work by many different organizations - including Google Brain - who are working on AI that can develop machine learning software. 

In many cases, the results coming from machines coding other machines are matching or exceeding work done by humans. 

 As a point of reference, virtually all of our training techniques were developed or created by an A.I. process.

AI creating AI has many benefits.

But, at this point in time, it still requires lots of human input and insight. 

I suspect that won't be true for long.

  When that is true, what jobs will humans be doing?

 I have some thoughts, but I'd love to hear yours.

Quick, Draw!

Our non-human overlords haven't taken over yet.

However, A.I. is getting smarter faster.

Can a neural network learn to recognize doodles?

Google's Quick, Draw! will try and guess what you're drawing.

It did pretty well with mine, and I did not inherit my dad's artistic skills. 

Try it by clicking below!

 

 

Kind of cool!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - January 20th, 2017

With technology becoming more ubiquitous ... perhaps Tweeting shouldn't be ... 

  

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Ringling Bros. Circus to Close after 146 Years. (Washington Post)
• Why Your Brain Makes New Year's Resolutions Impossible to Keep. (Popular Science)
• When the Picky Eater is a Grown-Up. (New York Times)
• Your Dog Knows Exactly What You’re Saying. (National Geographic)
• Nestle Claims a Scientific Breakthrough and Chocolate Will Never Be the Same Again. (Inc)

Trading Links:

• The End of Cloud Computing. (A16z)
• Rethinking Global Finance. (Wired)
• All World Maps Lie. So Which One Should We Use? (FastCoD)
• Why Rich People Set up Trust Funds for Their Pets. (Flipboard)
• Apple Sells Nearly 400 IPhones Per Minute, and Other Insane Stats. (Insider)

Millenials: Can't Live With 'Em ... And Can't Kill 'Em Either

Simon Sinek is a best-selling author (Start With Why), and gave a Ted Talk on how great leaders inspire action (that got 30 million views). 

Recently, in an interview with Tom Bilyeu (co-founder of Quest Nutrition), he addresses the issue of  Millennials – and why they seem lazy and unfocused.

 

 

 

Sinek points to four characteristics that help "create" this issue:

• Parenting,
• Technology,
• Impatience, and
• Environment.

Sinek suggests that this generation is a product of failed parenting strategies ... being told they're special without effort, being told they can have anything they want, and being handed trophies for showing up.

Next, add technology to the mix.

Before millennials, interaction happened in person much more frequently ... meaningful trust-based relationships were built with time and effort, and when you were at dinner with friends, or watching a movie, you were at a dinner with friends ... not on your phone.

For added irritation, next add impatience (which is a byproduct of instant gratification).  

Why wait for amusement when it's a text away?  You've got Netflix making video rental a thing of the past, Tinder making dating as easy as "swiping right" and Amazon making it so you don’t have to checkout when you go to a store.

Is it any wonder that these kids have short attention spans?

Now, put those kids in an environment where they're forced to realize you can't rush success, and you can't force meaningful relationships. 

It's a recipe that has often terminated without a happy ending.

I thought it would be fun to ask one of them, what they thought about it ...

So I asked my son, Zachary.  Here are his thoughts.

 

I was born in 1993. When I was in elementary school, I was already using a computer almost daily, and a lot of my education and entertainment was computer-centric. 

As such, I am a textbook “Millennial.”

I use Snapchat too much, I relax by playing video games, and at times I can be unacceptably lazy.

Because of that, I found this interview with Simon Sinek particularly interesting.

I’ve been lucky. My dad did a good job of forcing me to work hard, and valued my efforts more than my results.  So, while I'm constantly reminded that I'm lucky I'm not working 80 hour days (and being forced to get a haircut every week) I do feel as if I'm a step ahead of many of my peers.

I still find myself falling in to a lot of the "traps" Sinek describes – I'm reliant on social media;  I'm frustrated when my effort doesn't transfer in to immediate impact; and I struggle to not take my phone out in social situations. 

I do think the issue is bigger than millennials. It's not just our generation that takes their phones out at meetings and ignores who they're with for someone on their phone. If you pay attention I'll bet you'll notice you do it as well.

The difference, I think, is that millennials spent their formative years in this environment.

This does effect the way we see and interact with the world.

Will we ever measure up to your expectations?

Perhaps not ... because our generations approach the world the world so differently.

Nonetheless, we are still capable of great things.  We are still driven to create and pursue great things.  It's just that we are playing a different game and keeping score a little differently.

Understanding that, in and of itself, can help to close the gap.

 

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the subject, and any tips you might have for someone relatively new to the corporate world. You can e-mail me at [email protected].

Thanks.

The Internet in 1973

Here's a map of the entire "Internet" in 1973:

 

Reddit via @WorkerGnome.

Wonder what that map would look like today?

Oftentimes, a small breakthrough has awesome and immense consequences.

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - January 6th, 2017

Social media started as tool high school students used to communicate with their friends ... who would have thought that it could be a launchpad to the presidency. 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Death Star Would Cost $7.8 Octillion a Day to Run. (Fortune)
• Chipmakers are Racing to Build Hardware for Artificial Intelligence. (FastCompany)
• Why You Shouldn't Exercise to Lose Weight, Explained with 60+ Studies. (Vox)
• Government Spies Can See Everything You’re Doing with Your Phone on a Plane. (Quartz)
• Sleep Loss Costs the US Economy $411 Billion Per Year — and It's Also Really Bad for Our Health. (BI)

 

Trading Links:

• How Trump Plans to Punish Firms that Leave US. (AP News)
• Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.6 Percent, Lowest Level since 2007. (NPR)
• Get Used to It: Economists See "New Normal" of Slow Growth. (AP News)
• Top Marijuana Stocks to Buy in 2017. (Fox Business)
• In a Hedge against a Meatless Future, Tyson Foods Launches $150 Million VC Fund. (Forbes)

The Time Value of Time

In many senses time is relative. 

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand this quote from Einstein.

"When you are courting a nice girl, an hour seems like a second.  When you sit on a red-hot cinder, a second seems like an hour.  That's relativity."

It is about more than perception.  Here is something that highlights the relative value of time.

 

The Value Of Time:

• To understand the value of a year, talk to a student who has failed an important exam.
• To understand the value of a month, talk to a mother who has given birth to a baby a month prematurely.
• To understand the value of a week, talk to the publisher of a weekly newspaper.
• To understand the value of an hour, talk to a couple in love who are separated and want only to be together again.
• To understand the value of a minute, talk to someone who has just missed their train or plane flight.
• To understand the value of a second, talk to someone who has lost a loved one in an accident.
• And to understand the value of a millisecond, talk to someone who won the silver medal at the Olympic Games.

Time waits for no one.  So it is important to remember to make the best use of the time you have.

 

That Doesn't Mean Time Is Scarce Or Has To Be A Constraint:

Time is often thought of as a constraint or a scarce resource. There are lots of phrases that highlight this type of thinking.  For example: I don't have enough time; I'm running late; I'm up against a deadline; There are only 24-hours in a day; or, I’m going as fast as I can. As you might guess, that list goes on further.  Yet, time does not have to be that way ... it can be a tool instead.

So, I started to think about how I used time.  Was I making the most of it ... or taking it for granted?  It didn’t take much introspection to notice a few of the ruts I fell into.  I'm going to talk about one of them, here, because a small shift had a massive impact.  The thing we changed was our pace.

 

A Change of Pace:

When I jog, the beginning and the end are the hardest for me. Yet, after I find that initial pace and I settle into a comfortable rhythm, the majority of the run is relatively painless. My mind and body switch to an nearly automatic mode and I have time to think about many things.

Work is similar in many respects. Once a team gets in a rhythm, work and progress are somewhat automatic. Breaking inertia is a challenge; but people recognize that it's a challenge. The more insidious problem is to fail to recognize that the work rhythm that's comfortable, and which produces progress, is still a rut. It doesn't stretch and challenge the team to strive for more. Yet, this stretching is what drives innovation. It's the thought we haven't had yet … and a new perspective that changes everything.

Changing your pace can be an incredible catalyst to make that happen for you. For example, imagine that we put together a new portfolio in two weeks, on a wholly new tech platform, with new markets, and using new techniques. Then we tested, re-balanced and rebuilt that portfolio in one week. What we did, or the time in which we did it, wasn’t important. The important part is that it caused the team to work at a radically different pace than before. It was a sprint.

Moreover, this sprint caused us to re-think what we do, and more importantly, how we do it.  Many of the innovations and new distinctions that we discovered through this process will work their way into other areas of our work,  and will act as a catalyst for us to re-evaluate the way we do things.

 

A Challenge For You:

I challenge you to consciously change the pace of something that you are already comfortable doing a certain way. The pace can be faster, or the pace can be slower ... it doesn't matter.  Then notice what comes up for you, and what new opportunities and possibilities you discover.

Time is a valuable resource. Take this opportunity to re-examine how you can best view and use time to make the most of it.