Capitalogix

Capitalogix Commentary 07/26/09

This video from The Economist is a great metaphor for where we are in the market.

The Economist is one of those magazines that piles-up in my office.  I don't want to throw it out; but I also don't read it as often as I want to, or should.  I tell myself it is because I want to read it thoroughly.  Then, when I finally read them, I think that I should read them when they come in (rather than putting them in the pile). 

Nonetheless, The Economist always seems to provoke thought, and they throw-in something funny more often than you might expect.  I like that they often talk about the "bigger" ideas ... and as a trader, I too often get sucked-in by the Siren's Call of urgency and "news".

So, this week I thought I'd write about two of the bigger ideas that the markets are provoking me to think about recently. 

The first is how much stock to put into China's recent economic growth?  The second, perhaps related, is really a question about how much can we trust the recent rally, in light of what happened just beforehand. With regard to the second question, I'm talking about the U.S. Markets too.

First, Let's Look at China.

The Chinese market and economy seem to have rebounded quickly.  However, there are some signs that all might not be well behind the Great Wall.  For example, here is a chart that shows a dramatic decrease in electric power usage.  It leads to this question. Although Chinese government officials claim GDP is well, are they lying or making things out of thin air (meaning, without electricity).

When confronted with this inconsistency, China had a quick response; it stopped releasing that data.

With tongue-in-cheek, here is a video where China celebrates its status as the world's biggest polluter, as proof of its productivity and prosperity.

China Celebrates Its Status As World’s Number One Air Polluter

Getting back to our markets, I continue to be surprised by the length and strength of the rally.  Apparently,  Artificial Intelligence is a good substitute for lack of the real thing. So at least my trading systems have been comfortably "long"... even though I'm feeling bearish. 

Could The Recent Rally Simply Be a World-Wide Reflex?

At its simplest, most people try to create a diverse portfolio by trying to buy different types of assets. For example, banks, utilities, tech, staples, and cyclicals. Other classes of assets include things like real estate, precious metals, currencies, and energy. Common sense says that some things go up, while other things go down; that is called "Sector Rotation".  However, during times of economic and financial market distress, a surprising number of things move in the same direction, resulting in few safe havens. 

This asset class correlation was prevalent during the past year.  There were days when virtually everything, around the globe, seemed to fall.  I saw unusual correlation in our trading systems, too. When the markets really broke down, the diversity we normally see in our trading signals disappeared. It is tough to be long and wrong when trading models say it is more likely that the next move is back up, but the markets keep falling.  Discipline says follow the model; but common sense says the model was designed for normal (or at least "mostly normal") market conditions ... and that was not the type of market we were in at the time.

Not surprisingly, research shows that high correlations were a result of the steep fall in market prices and investor sentiment. An interesting article about this is "Do Correlations Matter When the World is On Fire".  In addition, Felix Salmon poses a disturbing question: since we're still seeing such a high correlation, even as so many things are going up ... is it possible that this is a natural artifact of the recent financial crisis, and perhaps another sign that the market is still in a time of economic and market distress. Likewise, Bloomberg points out that investors are moving in-lockstep like never before, driving up stocks, commodities and emerging markets.

The point is this high correlation actually creates a risk of replaying last year. In other words, the herd mentality threatens to leave investors with little refuge once again. 

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Buffett’s Goldman Stake Pays Richly. (DealBook)
• Morgan Stanley Compensation Soars to 72% Of Revenues. (Business Insider)
• Europe Falls Behind Silicon Valley In VC Deal Flow. (WSJ)
• Implications of High-Speed Trading Systems On Markets & Investors. (NYTimes)
• What Went Wrong with Economics? Avoiding the Mistakes of the Past. (Economist)
• Investors in India Bet on the Weather. (WSJ)
• Superstition & Finance: A Total Eclipse of the Brain. (Economist)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• What Makes the Dalai Lama ... well, the Dalai Lama? (NYTimes)
• Trading Psychology Is Psychological Capital. (Trader Psyches)
• Two Dallas Cowboys Players Tackle The Smashburger Restaurant Chain. (WSJ)
• Combining Facial Recognition & Augmented Reality. (Gizmodo)
• Amazon Cripples Mobile That Use Their Data. (WebMonkey)
• Clean-Up Your MP3 Collection Automatically. (WSJ)
• Top VC Blogs, Based On Number of Readers. (TechCrunch)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Bezos' Video About the Zappos Acquisition

Amazon acquired Zappos this week.  What follows is a terrific video where Jeff Bezos says he shares "Everything I Know" about business, and offers a peek inside the entrepreneurial spirit and culture of Amazon.

The four main points are:

Obsess Over Customers. While they pay attention to the competitive marketplace, they don't let competitors determine what they do. Instead, it is the customer that drives their strategy.

Invent. A critical part of what Amazon does is to invent solutions for, and on behalf of, their customers.

Think Long-Term. Amazon strategists take a long-term perspective. They are willing to take actions that quickly offer benefits to customers, even if those actions don't offer a pay-off for the company or its investors for five to seven years.

It's Always Day One. There is always a bigger future and more opportunities to invent for customers. It's never over, or too late.

Yes, it is a simple list.  Still, it is worth watching. 

It gave me a sense that Amazon not only preaches these principles, but practices them as well.

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View the full AMZN chart at Wikinvest

Also, here is a link to Zappos' CEO, Tony Hsieh's letter about the acquisition.

And here is a link to Four Questions About the Acquisition.

Genius Catalyst Tips

I enjoy Michael Neill's work.It combines business understanding, common-sense, and a little bit more.

His Genius Catalyst Tip-of-the-Day is often terrific.  Here is an example of one of them.

My Favorite Prayer.

Success means we go to sleep at night knowing that our talents and abilities were used in a way that served others.

    - Marianne Williamson, A Return to Love

When I was around 25 years old, I had the dubious distinction of being brought in as a "ringer" for a UK baseball team based in South London. The assumption was that as an American, I must be genetically crafted for optimal baseball action. Unfortunately, as I was only an average player when I stopped playing at 14 and this was a team made up of former minor leaguers and die hard British jocks, I turned out to be less of a ringer and more of a dead loss.

Our team batted first and keen to maximize the advantage I was sure to bring them, I was first up. 80 mile per hour fast balls whizzed by my head, and the highlights of my first at bat were a) not dying and b) actually touching the ball with my bat on one pitch. (The ball promptly ignored my bat and continued unimpeded on its journey to the catcher's mitt).

Disappointed, the team captain sent me out to right field to lick my wounds and I thought about what I could do to keep the day from being a complete waste. Suddenly, a prayer popped into my head:

Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

Not being a particularly religious right fielder, I can't say who or what I was praying to, but the words kept coming like a mantra:

Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

Despite my early failure, I knew I must have some relevant gifts for the task at hand. After all, I reasoned, I was a reasonably fast runner. I could throw a ball in something resembling a straight line. And while I was a great proponent of Dr. Arthur Slater-Hammel's 1950 study which "proved" that it is physically impossible for a human being to hit a baseball :-), I did know how to catch one. Suddenly I was excited instead of scared, leaning forward instead of back, and looking for opportunities to put my gifts to use instead of waiting for the chance to hide my inadequacies and run from my failings.

Within a few minutes of beginning my prayer, my first "chance to serve" came - a line drive over the second baseman's head. I ran in, stuck out my glove, and caught the ball to end the inning. Suddenly I was 'one of the guys' again, and I engaged with the game and my teammates in a whole new way for the rest of the day.

Although my exploits on the field quickly faded into obscurity, the power of that prayer stayed with me:

Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

Here's a few distinctions I've made in living that prayer during the ensuing years...

1. Give me a chance to serve...

About a year ago, I was discussing with a friend my goal of increasing the readership of these tips to 100,000 people by the year 2005. "Oh," she replied. "You want to expand your ministry." After gagging on my cappuccino, I spent the next hour arguing that the word 'ministry' was totally inappropriate for what I do.

When I calmed down, I did some research. Turns out 'ministry' is a wonderful word. While I had always used it to refer to either religious proselytizing or the home of a government organization (like the Ministry of Defense or the lesser known but much more fun Ministry of Sound :-), "ministry" actually refers to the act of ministration - being of service to, aiding, and assisting those around us.

To expand your ministry simply means to be of more service to those around you, be it through your work, your family, or your faith. Here's how George Bernard Shaw put it:

"I want to be thoroughly used up when I die, for the harder I work, the more I live. I rejoice in life for its own sake. Life is no "brief candle" to me. It is a sort of splendid torch which I have got hold of for the moment, and I want to make it burn as brightly as possible before handing it on to future generations."

By thinking of our lives as our ministry, we will find ourselves surrounded by opportunities in any moment to be of service. And each opportunity for service brings with it the opportunity for fulfillment, meaning, and joy.

2. ...using the gifts that I have.

I have always thought and taught that our gifts are those things in your life that come naturally to you, without any undue personal effort or struggle. Another way of identifying your gifts is to think of your strengths - those skills, abilities, or personality traits you exhibit which are so much a part of that you can't remember learning them and can't imagine not having them.

Martin Seligman is a former president of the American Psychological Association and long-time researcher into depression and learned helplessness who more recently turned his life's work on its head to become a pioneer in the field of Positive Psychology. Over the past few years, he and his research team have identified 24 'signature strengths' - core traits that are valuable in their own right but even more so when you put them into action in the service of your highest values and purpose.

Here are the 24 strengths:

1. Curiosity/Interest in the world	2. Love of Learning
3. Judgement/Critical thinking/Open-mindedness	4. Ingenuity/Originality/Street Smarts
5. Social Intelligence/Emotional Intelligence	6. Perspective
7. Valor/Bravery	8.Perseverance/Industry/Diligence
9. Integrity/Genuineness/Honesty	10. Kindness/Generosity
11. Loving/Allowing Oneself to be Loved	12. Citizenship/Duty/Teamwork/Loyalty
13.Fairness/Equality	14. Leadership
15. Self-control	16. Prudence/Discretion/Caution
17. Humility/Modesty	18. Appreciation of Beauty and Excellence
19. Gratitude	20. Hope/Optimism/Future-Mindedness
21.Spirituality/Sense of Purpose/Faith/Religiousness	22. Forgiveness/Mercy
23. Playfulness/Humor	24. Zest/Passion/Enthusiasm

As Seligman says in the book Authentic Happiness:

"Herein is my formulation of the good life: Using your signature strengths every day in the main realms of your life to bring abundant gratification and authentic happiness."

In response to which I would simply say: Give me a chance to serve, using the gifts that I have.

Today's Experiment:

1. Go to the Authentic Happiness website, and take the online VIA Strengths Survey. After identifying your top 2 or 3 strengths, look for opportunities to put them to use throughout the week.

2. Ponder these words from Quaker Faith and Practice - Advices and Queries :

Live adventurously. When choices arise, do you take the way that offers the fullest opportunity for the use of your gifts in the service of God and the community?

3.  Let your life speak." If your life could speak, what would it be saying? What would you like it to say?

4. Just for fun, try your luck at hitting a 90 mph fastball online by going to the Exploratorium.

Have fun, learn heaps, and let your life speak!

________________________________________

Visit Genius Catalyst for more great tips!
His tip is Copyright 2001-2009 - Genius Catalyst / Michael Neill. All Rights Reserved.

Conditioning Yourself to Take the Best Next Step

Is How You Do Something ... How You Do Everything?

I'm beginning to think so.  To make the point, let me start with a brief story. 

I was at the gym and getting pretty close to the end of my workout.

Frankly, I was at a point where being done was more attractive than the option of doing additional exercise.

Over time I've developed many habits and beliefs that focus on finding best next step or a way to do just a little bit more. So this time, I used reverse-counting to help me finish that workout strong.

I started with 10 push-ups. I know I can do 10 push-ups, even at the end of a hard workout. Without putting my knees down, I can rest in plank position for a moment or two ... then I do nine more push-ups. That has to be easier than 10, right? Then eight more ... seven ... six. You get the point.

Each set is a little bit harder than the one before; but mentally I'm prepared for it, and can convince myself that I'm so much closer to the goal.

So I get to three, and sweat is dripping off my nose, my arms are shaking, and my hips want to sway. Somehow knowing that there's only two more sets, then only one more, allows me to finish.

That story could have been about creating profitable trading systems, developing a new database, or recovering from a set-back.  It's about finding a way, regardless of external circumstances.

Finding a Way to Do Just a Little Bit More.

There are many times that it seems easier to do nothing, or to give up. That's just not my nature. It's not in my "nurture" either.

My father used to say that the secret to success was getting up. What he meant was that if someone knocked you down 10 times, then the secret to success was getting up 11 times. And if someone knocked you down another time, then the secret was to get up 12 times. There's a lot of truth in that.

I laugh when I think of all the little things I do that condition me to take the best next step. Here are a few examples of small things that help define that mindset.

• I never stop reading until I finish a chapter.
• Also, when I play a strategy game on my iPhone, I never stop until I win.
• And, when I play a strategy game that I'm good at, I never stop until I achieve a certain score. 

It doesn't matter if I'm frustrated or tired.  I find a way.  Each, in its own small way, helps condition me to know that I can do anything I commit to.  Taking that a little further, regardless of what happens, my outcome depends most on what I choose to do.

Sometimes that seems silly, or even a little bit OCD to me. Yet, it serves me.  There's a lot of freedom that comes with knowing that the game's not over until I say it is ... or until I win. Likewise, it's comforting to know that there's always a best next step, or at least a different perspective that will create new opportunities and possibilities.

I to do that in business as well. We focus on the progress we're making, and what that makes possible, rather than how far we are from the ultimate goal. Why? Because as we continue to make progress, the things we shoot for are bigger and farther away. Focusing there would always show a shortfall. Obstacles and set-backs become the raw material for new growth, ideas and strategies.  The trick is getting back up, isn't it?

Sometimes the best advice is simple. Nike got it right in their ad ... Just Do It.

Capitalogix Commentary 07/19/09

Goldman Sachs announced massive profits of almost $3.5 Billion this Quarter.  On one hand that is great.  On the other, does it make you wonder where and how they made that money? 

On a related note, Bespoke notes that, in the first half of the year, Goldman set-aside over $11 Billion to compensate its employees.  Nice work if you can get it.

Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart
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View the full GS chart at Wikinvest

The Stimulus Plan.

The economy, and the mood about the economy, seem to be doing a little better. I give credit for the effort.  Though, I am watching spending and employment numbers to tell me more of the story.

Some Market Charts.

For the past few weeks, many people have been watching the potential head and shoulders pattern. Its failure to trigger caused many people to cover their short positions. This was probably the primary catalyst for the "Oops" trade that took the market back near its recent highs.

Those recent highs are interesting to me for several reasons. First, they've held since early June. Second, and potentially more importantly, they may be part of a much bigger pattern forming on the major U.S. equity indices. 

Here is a picture of the S&P 500 Index. Notice the potential inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern (marked in orange).  If it triggers (shown by the green neckline of resistance), and if it hits the measured target (shown by the purple arrows), then it is certainly worth watching.  Of course, that is a lot of "ifs".

Some Things to Watch.

So, the upside is clear, take out the June highs and see if we get some buying volume. However, I can't get excited, yet.  There are a number of things holding back my enthusiasm. Right off the top-of-my-head: jobs, spending, lack of volume, and the failure to trade above recent highs.

However, another thing I'm watching is that recent moves up in the market were met with an increase in the VIX (instead of the expected inverse relationship).  Here is a picture from Marty Chenard's chart service called StockTiming.com.

Recently, it bothered me that the VIX failed to show a spike of fear when the market was going down. And now, the VIX is bothering me because it's going up when the market goes up. So, either this is not a good time to follow the VIX for trading guidance, or the VIX is indicating that something unusual is happening in the markets.  Either way, it makes me cautious.  What about you?

While I expected a short-term rally, I still believe that the markets are due for an intermediate-term move downwards. However, neither logic, intuition, nor economics are primary indicators. Price is the primary indicator; and it has been moving upwards.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Wall Street 2015: Has It Changed Forever? (Forbes)
• Goldman Had Huge Profits - Why are Executives Selling? (Dealbook)
• Intel Gives Upbeat Outlook as Sales Revive. (WSJ)
• Dell Shares Dive as PC Market Still Looks Rough. (Technology Review)
• McGraw-Hill's Seeking a Buyer for BusinessWeek. (WSJ)
• Ways Apple Is Extending Its Lead Via 3rd-Party iPhone Apps. (WSJ)
• Help Is On the Way for Credit-Starved Small Businesses. (Forbes)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• If The Jetsons Had Email, What Would it Look Like? (MediaPost)
• Building a Biologically Accurate Artificial Brain. (WSJ)
• Why Some People Sneeze When the Sun Comes Out? (New Scientist)
• Even the Homeless Use Facebook to Stay Wired. (WSJ)
• Can Companies Profit By Giving Away Digital Products & Services? (NYTimes)
• Microsoft Office 2010 Preview in Pictures (eWeek)
• Get Your Wisdom: Well Done Summaries of Big Ideas. (Philosopher's Notes)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Impressions About the New iPhone

Hello, my name is Howard; and I'm a gadget addict. This week I went out and upgraded to the new Apple iPhone 3GS, even though my 3G worked fine. I had to, though; didn't I?

It's the fastest, most powerful iPhone yet. It has video, and my old phone didn't have video. It has a compass; and you know I need a compass. Okay, I don't need a compass; but apparently the new turn-by-turn mapping capability needs a compass to understand which direction you're turning (and that's pretty cool). It has voice control to dial the phone, play music, and otherwise avoid typing. And it has double the storage capacity, which I'm sure still won't be enough.

Actually, I'm very happy with the new phone and the upgrade process. I connected it to my computer, and all the applications and settings from my prior version migrated all by themselves. Even the high score lists for games I play transferred. More importantly, the phone does everything I expected, and seems faster.

And, of course, I no longer have iPhone envy. The fact that I waited a week after it came out to order mine took amazing willpower. I thought about it so many times that it was no longer worth it to wait. So Happy Birthday to me, a few weeks early.

Joking aside, the iPhone has become an important business tool for me. I am more surprised about how much less I use my laptop, than I am about how much I use the iPhone.

Even when I'm in a meeting, I have access to the internet. I can search Google.  Or even better, I can use Twitter or Facebook to crowd-source an answer. It's almost like being able to "Call a Friend" or "Ask the Audience" on "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire".

One of the features I like best, is being able to use my voice instead of typing. So, I can quickly look-up a contact by saying their name. It's surprising how many places voice control like this comes in handy. For example, Google has an iPhone application that allows you to search by speaking. So I could speak an address, and the Google map comes up. Or, I could say "stock price for Apple", and the current quote and chart comes up. Similarly, I use an application called Jott to verbally capture tasks, ideas, and to-do items. The service transcribes what I say and puts it into my task list. It's important because I'm now capturing things that used to slip through the cracks.

I'll review some of the more helpful iPhone applications in a later post. In the meantime, if you don't have the new iPhone, I recommend you go check them out. It's a very fine piece of technology.

Capitalogix Commentary 07/12/09

Obama told the G8 that the "World has Staved Off Economic Disaster." So, it's all good now.  You are safe to jump back in the pool.  If there was still risk, he couldn't have said that in front of world leaders, right?

Is This the New Normal ... Or Just the Calm Before the Storm?

Here is a chart that shows how volatility has reduced recently.  Putting on my curmudgeon hat for a moment, I remember the old trader's adage that lack of volatility begets volatility.

That chart whispers "beware the calm before the storm" to me.  Others may see a return to normal.  What do you think?

A Look At the Markets.

The markets have given back close to 25% of their recent gains in the last four weeks. In many respects that was a healthy move. The news has been bad enough that I expected a bigger and steeper downswing.

Also, there's been a lot of talk about the potential of a head and shoulders top. But when you look at a composite of the five U.S. Equity Indices (shown in the bottom-half of the chart, below), we haven't broken the neckline, yet.

In addition, the 200-day moving average (red line) continues to provide support. If we don't have a sustained break beneath this level, the 200-day moving average will act as support.  Click the chart to see a full-size image.

With that said, sentiment is getting more bearish, and the move down has not created a spike in the VIX. So, again, there are clues that lead me to suspect that we might be witnessing the calm before the storm.  Earnings Season is starting; and a move down would trigger the head-and-shoulders topping pattern and the 200-day moving average would become overhead resistance.  And fear would increase ... you get the picture.

Sometimes, the right picture can be worth a thousand words.

So short-term, a bounce wouldn't surprise me. Nonetheless, a bigger correction still seems likely.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Businessman Pays $2.1 million for Lunch with Buffet; Banks More (DigitalJournal)
• 11 Places With a Worse Economy Than Ours. (USNews)
• Currency Funds Crushed on Dearth of Market Trends. (Bloomberg)
• The Dollar's role in the global economy is Safe From the Yuan, for Now (WSJ)
• Ex-Goldman Sachs Employee Arrested Stealing Secret Trading Codes. (StreetInsider)
• Citadel Sues Firm Linked to Alleged Goldman Software Theft. (FinAlternatives)
• Mark Cuban on Business Models: Succeed with Free, Die by Free. (BlogMaverick)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Stephen Hawking: Humans Have Entered a New Stage of Evolution. (Daily Galaxy)
• China Embraces the 24-Hour News Cycle; Will They Soon Regret It? (Forbes)
• Amazon Patents Detail Kindle Advertising Model. (MediaPost)
• Twitter Not Happy With The Name Tweet In Third-Party Applications. (DigitalJournal)
• Emotional Robots: Will We Love Them Or Hate Them? (NewScientist)
• Coaching Tip - Applying the Art of Sprinting to Life. (GeniusCatalyst)
• Social Security Number Code Cracked, Study Claims. (Federal News)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Here's a Movie Worth Seeing

What do you do when your wife and kids are out of town, and you find yourself alone?

Besides catching-up on projects that I somehow avoided until now, I like to watch movies.

TiVo now links to Netflix, and provides an instant viewing option. Upon opening that folder on the DVR, I saw a bunch of things I normally wouldn't choose to watch on my own. One of them was a movie called Saint Ralph.  And I chose to watch it anyway.

My Dad had an "interesting" belief. He didn't watch scary or negative movies, because he felt that life was enough of a challenge on its own ... and it was better to find things that raised our spirits. Well, I inherited that from him.

Don't get me wrong, I still I love drama and thrillers. But in the absence of compelling circumstances, I tend to prefer positive stories.

So a plot about a down-on-his luck Catholic High School student whose father is dead and whose mother is in a coma, doesn't sound like my type of movie. 

But Saint Ralph was my type of movie.  It made me think and I enjoyed it.  The movie was lighter, funnier, and better than I expected.

On one level, it's a coming-of-age story about perseverance and faith through uncertain times. On another level, it's a well-written comedy about a quirky 14-year-old boy who gets it in his head that the only way to save his mother is through a miracle (and the miracle he thinks will save her ... is for him to win the Boston Marathon).

It is a movie that asks, if you're going to dream for something, why not dream for miracles?

Hope you enjoy it.

Here's a link to the trailer for Saint Ralph. 

Here's a link to find it at Netflix.

The Flow of Planning

I was in Columbus Ohio last week for a series of meetings and strategic planning sessions.

I love getting away from the business in order to work on the business. That means stepping back from day-to-day issues, to look at the bigger picture. It also means getting back in-touch with goals and intent.

In a sense, the process acts like a compass, which sets the general direction for the journey.

In addition, preparing for a series of meetings, like this, is a lot like working on a business plan.

Personally, I've found that that one of the primary benefits of creating a business plan has almost nothing to do with the plan itself. Working on the plan, immersing yourself in the ideas and possibilities, and ultimately choosing what stays-in, versus what's filtered out ... there is magic in that.

Yes, the plan is important.  But it is the planning that takes you from thinking ... to feeling ... to knowing.  That's where the real benefit of business planning comes from.

A Good Sign.

Sometimes you hear a question and it takes the air out of an idea. Other times a question helps you make a new distinction or consider an alternate and better course of action.

At our planning sessions, last week, there was a lot of those pushing, pulling, probing, and deep thought ... yet it built momentum.  So, I felt like we were on the right track.

How to Tell You Are On the Right Track.

I tend to be analytical.  Yet, over time, I've come to believe that one of the best tools to measure whether you are on the right track is how you feel.

Have you ever gotten a phone call from someone, and when you saw or heard that it was from them, you wilted?  In contrast, have you ever become more animated and energized while interacting with someone else?  It is easy to recognize the difference. 

Each person has different thoughts, people, or situations that trigger these positive and negative states.

In sports, this positive state is often referred to as being "in-the-Zone".  It is also called "Flow".  It happens when someone is fully immersed in what they are doing, and has a feeling of energized focus or awareness, full involvement, and success in the process of their activity.

Being in Flow feels good. On some level, when you are in Flow, you know you're on the right track.

Capitalogix Commentary 07/05/09

Another grim report on unemployment casts doubt on the likelihood of a quick economic recovery. 

The unemployment rate edged up to 9.5 percent in June, to its highest level in 26 years. The bigger problem is that many analysts expect joblessness to get worse in the coming months.

A Different Perspective on the Job Market:

Here is a chart that caught my eye on Barry Ritholtz's blog.  It shows the increased competition for jobs.  There are now close to six unemployed people for each available position.

The point is that as fewer jobs become available, it will get harder for normal citizens to obtain them.  The cycle continues because loss of jobs means reduced spending ... which means tighter margins. 

So, this next chart doesn't surprise me.  It shows that in addition to an increase in unemployment, there was also a decrease in hours worked.  Simply counting the number of people who lost their jobs misses something important. Lots of people have lost part of their jobs through a variety of techniques like furloughs and thirty-hour work weeks.

Notice how consistent the decline in aggregate hours worked (purple line) has been over recent months. It is something to watch.

For a longer perspective, here is a chart comparing the monthly national unemployment rates since 1948.  Click the chart to see the interactive version on WSJ.com.

Market Chart:

How will all that play-out in the Markets?  So far, the markets have held-up nicely.  I've been seeing more negative divergences and selling on down days ... and less positive momentum and market breadth. But price is the primary indicator, and it has stayed above support.

Here is a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index.  I marked a head and shoulders pattern that many traders are watching.  Click the chart to see a full-size image.

Short-term, a bounce still wouldn't surprise me. Nonetheless, a bigger correction seems likely.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Investors are Now Racing Toward Volatile Areas of the Market. (NYTimes)
• Another Indicator Predicts Economic Recovery is Near. What do you think? (MJPerry)
• A China Stock Bubble: IPO Mania Dangerous in Recession. (Time and Economist)
• Why China Hates the U.S. and What It Means for Your Portfolio. (Motley Fool)
• A Run on an Amish Bank Teaches the Risks of Modernity. (WSJ)
• The Fed's Delicate Balancing Act On the Complex & Slow Road to Recovery. (SmartMoney)
• How GE Reaped Bailout Dollars Even Though It Wasn't a Bank. (TDB)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Michael Jackson Insider on What Really Killed Him. (TDB)
• Monkey 'Stock Market' Prone to Fluctuations Too. (NewScientist)
• Calculating Consumer Happiness at Any Price. (NYTimes)
• A Glimpse at the Future: Domestic Robots With A Taste For Flesh. (NewScientist)
• Scientists Create First Electronic Quantum Processor. (PhysOrg)
• Tomato Pill's new form of Lycopene Beats Heart Disease. (BBC)
• Is an Ugly Baby Harder to Love? (Time)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.