Capitalogix

Overhyped Technologies (Or Not)

Just because something is overhyped doesn’t mean it’s bad.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle is a great example of this concept.  It highlights the likely cycle of inflated expectations, disillusionment, and, ultimately, utility.

The key takeaway from the Hype Cycle model is that much of what happens is predictable ... and that a significant portion of the extreme swings are based on human nature rather than technical merit.

Haters are going to hate, and sometimes a fad is more than a fad.  For example, here is a front-page article from the New York Times in 1879.  It questions the utility of electric lights as a replacement for gas-powered lighting.  In case you were wondering, that one might have been a bright idea.

 

 

The point is that humans have proven themselves to be pretty bad at exponential thinking.  We’re not bad at recognizing periods of inflection, but we often have trouble recognizing the consequences of the change (and the consequences of those consequences) and predicting who the winners and losers will be as a result of those regime changes. 

 

 

There are countless examples.  Here’s a funny one from Maximum PC Magazine in 2008.  It shows that hype isn’t always a sign of mistaken excess.  This list purported to show things that were getting too much attention in 2008.  Instead of being a list of has-beens and failures, many of these things rightfully deserved the attention and hype they were getting.

 

 

It’s been over 15 years since this came out.  How did the predictions hold up?

Apple has become one of the world’s biggest and most successful companies (with a market cap approaching 3 Trillion dollars).  The iPhone has sold over 2.2 billion phones and accounts for over half of Apple’s total revenue.  Meanwhile, Facebook has become Meta and is also one of the biggest and most successful companies in the world (with a market cap of well over a Trillion dollars).  And the list keeps going: HD video, 64-bit computing, downloading movies from the internet, and multiple GPU video cards. 

Take just that last one. Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of GPU growth, and it is one of the highest-performing stocks of the past few decades (with a market cap of well over 2 trillion dollars). 

It’s hard to believe how poorly this image aged. 

Remember that the trend is your friend while it continues.

Just because something is overhyped - doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be excited about it. 

The key is to stop thinking about the thing that’s being hyped and, instead, to start thinking about how to use things like that to create what you really want.

Onwards!

Velocity Versus Speed

Recently, I've been thinking a lot about how businesses scale and technology adoption accelerates.

For example, consider how fast AI is improving and transforming business.

Last year, I shared a short video called Speed Matters. It includes some thought-provoking ideas. You can view it by clicking here.

 

 

While speed matters, faster is not always better.

As you focus on doing more things faster, it becomes more essential to give people room to do important things slower.

You've almost certainly heard the phrase, "It's better to measure twice and cut once."  It's much easier to do something the right way from the beginning rather than trying to fix it after you mess it up. 

Activity does not create progress if it doesn't move you in the right direction.

This reminds me of a distinction my friend Nic Peterson makes. What you want in your business is velocity rather than speed. Velocity implies a vector (and preferably only one vector). You want to move fast in the desired direction, not fast towards distractions, mistakes, or money down the drain. 

To add one more layer to this, there's an "almost true" axiom in technology: you can only have two out of these three things: a project done fast, done right, and done cheaply.

But it's only almost true for a big reason. If you've already built the team and put in the work, replicating that work for new projects can be done fast, right, and comparatively cheaper. 

Are you just moving fast, or do you have velocity in your business?

Something to think about ... 

Checking Back In with Dr. Doom

In 2018, while in New York for work, I was invited to a party that ended up being a pretty unique experience. 

The rules were that for the first hour it would be first names only, no discussion of what you do, etc. Part of the fun was figuring out who was there and why they were special. And, there were a lot of pretty impressive people in the room. As I was wondering who was able to bring all these experts and thought leaders into one home for a house party, I found it was Nouriel Roubini - the infamous Harvard economist known as Dr. Doom. 

Nouriel Roubini's predictions have earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "PermaBear" in the media. He predicted the housing bubble crash in 2007-2008, and has extensively studied the collapse of emerging economies. 

So, after a tumultuous few years for the global economy, I thought I'd check back in and see what he was saying. 

It turns out he's less pessimistic than you would guess. He's pretty optimistic about 2024 growth and not particularly worried about a recession—though he is expecting a downturn. 

He also thinks there's a possibility that growth remains above potential, and inflation remains sticky. That would be good news for the economy, but bad news for markets – as the Fed likely wouldn't cut as much or as soon as people are hoping for. 

Now, Nouriel has been wrong before, and I don't trust any singular pundit. My mindset is to listen to voices that don't already believe what I do. I tend to be optimistic as a rule, and I've been optimistic on things like blockchain, whereas Nouriel has been staunchly negative.

But, he's a smart and educated voice who can justify his opinions. And I end up more educated - and often modifying my stance a little bit - based on the context he's able to give. 

By the way, as I was editing this post, I saw that Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio admit they got warnings on the US economy wrong — for now.

Are you listening to voices outside of your preferred channels?

The Most Valuable Brands In 2024

In the past, most profitable companies built or sold tangible products. The Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, land owners, etc.

Over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, many of the leaders are in tech, IP, and other intangible assets.

Here are the most valuable companies as of today. 

via visualcapitalist

Now, to be clear, these aren't the most profitable companies. This is about value. 

That being said, it wouldn't be surprising to see Apple top either of those lists. Meanwhile, Tesla has dropped off the Top 10 list due to more EV competition and probably some backlash from Elon Musk's Twitter purchase. 

Also, unsurprisingly, Nvidia is the fastest-growing brand right now. 

With technology becoming more ubiquitous and businesses booming, I think the trend will continue, which makes protecting your businesses' intangibles even more important. 

Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors. Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge - so be careful with your trade secrets.

The U.S. Is Back On The Moon!

When I was young, the Space Race captured the hearts and souls of Americans.  But, for the past few decades, it was in the background.  Recently, that has changed.  The space race is getting hot again.  Resources are pouring into this area, and SpaceX is leading the pack. 

In 2018, I shared excitement that the boosters he used were reusable.  Today, people are talking about how his ship, Starship, could render other rocket programs obsolete. 

Fifty-one years after we last landed on the moon, the U.S. is back, and it wasn’t Elon, but the private company Intuitive Machines finally accomplishing the feat. 

Odysseus, the unmanned lander, is now sending data back to Earth. 

Despite the massive leapfrog in technology over the past 51 years, this is still a massive achievement for several reasons.  It was done by a private company, it was still very expensive, it precedes a 2026 manned flight from NASA, and it’s the first commercial flight - not just from the U.S. - to make it to the moon.  The trip’s goal is to research the area NASA plans to use for an upcoming mission.  They believe there are beads of frozen water in the area, which could help sustain a permanent settlement. 

For many years, landing on the moon wasn’t getting any money.  Money was scarce.  We brought back over 800 pounds of moon rock on our last visit, and what little money there was went to more novel missions.  The moon landing symbolizes excitement about the long-term potential of the moon, not just space travel. 

I love spaceflight for a lot of the same reasons I love AI. 

It’s a global initiative heralding innovation and improvements that transform the world.  It’s the genesis of many exponential technologies. 

Many astronauts, even from back in the Apollo days, talk about the incredible feeling they get after a few days in space.  As they gaze on the Earth from above, they lose their sense of borders and nationality.  The Saudi astronaut Sultan bin Salman Al-Saud, who flew on the Space Shuttle in 1985, commented on this, saying, “The first day or so we all pointed to our countries.  On the third or fourth day, we were pointing to our continents.  By the fifth day, we were aware of only one Earth.”

It reminds me of Carl Sagan’s video on “The Pale Blue Dot.” 

In 1977, five years after we left the moon, the Voyager 1 launched into space.  Just over a dozen years later, the Voyager 1 spacecraft had traveled farther than any spacecraft/probe/human-made anything had gone before.  It was approximately 6 billion kilometers away from Earth.  At that point, the Voyager 1 was “told” by Carl Sagan to turn around and take one last photo of the Earth ... a pale blue dot. 

The resulting photo is impressive precisely because it shows so little in so much.

“Every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there--on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.” – Carl Sagan

Earth is in the far right sunbeam – a little below halfway down the image.  This image (and the ability to send it back to Earth) was the culmination of years of effort, the advancement of technology, and the dreams of humankind.

The resulting speech from Carl Sagan is still profound, moving, and worth a listen. 

 

via Carl Sagan

Here’s the transcript: 

_____

Look again at that dot.  That’s here.  That’s home.  That’s us.  On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.  The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every “superstar,” every “supreme leader,” every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there--on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.

The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena.  Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot.  Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner, how frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds.

Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the Universe, are challenged by this point of pale light.  Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark.  In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves.

The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life.  At least in the near future, there is nowhere else to which our species could migrate.  Visit, yes.  Settle, not yet.  Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand.

It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience.  There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world.  To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we’ve ever known.

____ 

Today, we have people living in space, posting videos from the ISS, and high-resolution images of space and galaxies near and far. 

We take for granted the immense phase shift in technology.  You have more computing power in your pocket than we first used to go to the moon.

As humans, we’re wired to think locally and linearly.  We evolved to live in small groups, fear outsiders, and stay in a general region until we die.  We’re not wired to think about the billions and billions of individuals on our planet, or the rate of technological growth - or the minuteness of that all in regard to the expanse of space.  

However, today’s reality necessitates thinking about the world, our impact, and what’s now possible.

We created better and faster ways to travel, we’ve created instantaneous communication networks across vast distances, and we’ve created megacities.  Our tribes have gotten much bigger - and with that, our ability to enact massive change has grown as well. 

Space was the first bastion of today’s innovation, but today, we can look toward AI, medicine, epigenetics, and more. 

It’s hard to comprehend the scale of the universe and the scale of our potential ... but that’s what makes it worth exploring!

Onwards!

The Doomsday Clock Is Ticking

There are a number of destabilizing events that make me hope for peace, love, and prosperity.  There are increasingly dangerous active military conflicts, a contentious election in front of us, and a host of other issues related to the promise or peril associated with the clash between exponential technologies and human fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.

With that said, random worry isn't a good strategy.  I like to measure subjective things as objectively as possible.  With that in mind, this post discusses something called the Doomsday Clock.

The History of the Doomsday Clock

The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 (following the successful testing of the first atomic bomb by the United States) to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

In 1953, after both the US and Soviet Union tested hydrogen bombs, the clock was set at two minutes to midnight, which is the closest it has ever been to a global catastrophe.  In recent years, the clock has taken into account not only nuclear weapons but also climate change and other emerging threats.

The Significance of the Doomsday Clock in Modern Times

Today, the Doomsday Clock remains an important symbol of humanity's vulnerability and the need for urgent action to prevent a global disaster.  The clock serves as a reminder that we must work together as a global community to address existential threats facing our planet.

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board determines where to set the clock each year based on international events and scientific advancements.  As such, it provides an objective measure of how close we are to destruction.

Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the most significant existential threats to humanity includes:

1. Nuclear War: The threat of atomic weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not adequately regulated and controlled.

5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive.  Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.  But, this year, 2024, there was no shift. 

Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

via flowingdata

The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act. 

And necessity is often the mother of invention.

We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges. 

With collaboration among the brightest minds across the globe and private industry, we can solve even the world's most significant problems.

If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 18th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• OpenAI's Product Page for Sora – Their AI Model That Creates Video From Text (with Examples). (OpenAI)
• You Are Not Late to Artificial Intelligence. (TheAlgorithmicBridge)
• ‘Mental Time Travel' Can Help You Make Better Decisions. (LifeHacker)
• ‘The Alternative' is Just the Book Economists Should Read — And Won't. (Washington Post)
• Musk Says Putin Can't Lose in Ukraine, Opposes Further Funding – “Prolonging the War Does Not Help Ukraine.” (Bloomberg)

 

Trading Links:

• OpenAI Staff Granted Permission to Liquidate Shares at Astounding $86 Billion Valuation - Insider Report. (Cryptopolitan)
• What Sam Altman's Chimerical Trillions Say About AI Hype. (Axios)
• The US-China Chip War is Escalating. (Apricitas)
• In Memory of Byron Wien, Here Is a 2024 "Ten Surprises" Tribute. (BlueFoxAdvisors)
• How Big Is the Commercial Real Estate Mess in the U.S.? Expect Losses in the Trillions of Dollars Over Time. (TheInstitutionalRiskAnalyst)

 

An Early Look At The Upcoming Election

You know it's election season when Jon Stewart steps back in to host The Daily Show. 

Unsurprisingly, the antagonism and hatred from both sides of the fence are still in full force - now with extra boosts from fake news and AI's influence. 

Surprisingly (to me), the frontrunners are still Biden and Trump, despite them being 81 and 77, respectively ... or despite Trump's several cases against him and Biden's horrible approval ratings ... or ... (it seems like we could keep finding reasons to be surprised).

Truthfully, I am surprised neither party is running someone "better" in this election. 

It feels like almost everyone I talk with is voting for the "lesser of two evils," even though they know it may not serve the greater good.

Here is a chart showing third-year approval ratings of first-term Presidents since WWII.

 

I thought the last Presidential election was pretty interesting, but this one's shaping up to be even more so. If it were fiction, no one would believe it.

The most popular issue on people's minds is the economy, but we also have controversial issues around trust in the government, immigration, abortion, foreign policy, and even the fate of Democracy in America itself. 

For all the economic woes and complaints, the unemployment rate remains low, GDP growth is strong, and the S&P 500 recently hit record highs. Yet, Americans are still feeling it in their pockets as the price of goods has gone up. 

It is a good reminder that the "facts" are often less important than how it feels. 

It is still early, but what do you think will happen?

Going With The Flow: Functional Mapping

There’s a concept in design and transportation called Desire Paths. 

The desired path is the path that users take despite the intended path by the builder of a community or application. 

Here’s a great example. 

Reddit via itstartswithani

And, here’s a whole community forum focused on desire paths. 

It’s often easier to take advantage of human nature ... or just nature ... than fight against it. 

To that effect, I shot a short video on how this relates to your business and tech adoption.  I call it functional mapping.  Check it out. 

 

Understanding the natural path for both technology and your clients makes it easier to understand and anticipate the capabilities, constraints, and milestones that define your path forward.   That means you actually have to understand the different types of users and what they expect to do.

Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desired capabilities and automation.

It isn’t really about building the technology; rather, it is about supporting the desire.

You don’t have to get it right.  You just have to create momentum in the right direction.  This means that if you understand what is coming, you don’t have to build it … but you should figure out where you want to build something that will move things in the right direction.

You’ve probably heard me talk about how Capabilities become Prototypes.  Then, Prototypes become Products.  And ultimately, Products become Platforms.

This model is fractal.  That means it works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

SpaceX’s goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now ... but once it’s achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

It helps you anticipate which potential outcomes you want to accelerate.  Rather than simply figuring out the easiest next step … you have to figure out which path is the best next step to your desired outcome.

The world is changing fast!  I hope you’re riding the wave instead of getting caught in the riptide!

Natural Technologies

Nature can be pretty cool. 

It turns out that a lot of what we think humans "invented" was so "natural" that nature created it first.

For example, the British Planthopper has mechanical gears in its legs.

 

Or the fact that the T4 Bacteriophage looks like a lunar lander and has 20 sides.

via biology4u

Interestingly, some of man's greatest inventions are so innate that natural selection (or intelligent design) created them before we did. 

Want another example?

Hospital-acquired infections are diseases caught due to organisms people are exposed to at a hospital (or other healthcare-related areas). They account for over 99,000 deaths a year.

Because of that, R&D worked extensively to find bacteria-killing surfaces …. It turns out Dragonflies have been doing it for centuries.

Research companies (and dragonflies) have used nano-textured surfaces to create a "bed of nails" that destroys bacteria by puncturing the cell wall. 

If you like stuff like this, Check out this link on order vs. chaos.

 There is always opportunity around you … You just have to know where to look.