Capitalogix

An Early Look At The Upcoming Election

You know it's election season when Jon Stewart steps back in to host The Daily Show. 

Unsurprisingly, the antagonism and hatred from both sides of the fence are still in full force - now with extra boosts from fake news and AI's influence. 

Surprisingly (to me), the frontrunners are still Biden and Trump, despite them being 81 and 77, respectively ... or despite Trump's several cases against him and Biden's horrible approval ratings ... or ... (it seems like we could keep finding reasons to be surprised).

Truthfully, I am surprised neither party is running someone "better" in this election. 

It feels like almost everyone I talk with is voting for the "lesser of two evils," even though they know it may not serve the greater good.

Here is a chart showing third-year approval ratings of first-term Presidents since WWII.

 

I thought the last Presidential election was pretty interesting, but this one's shaping up to be even more so. If it were fiction, no one would believe it.

The most popular issue on people's minds is the economy, but we also have controversial issues around trust in the government, immigration, abortion, foreign policy, and even the fate of Democracy in America itself. 

For all the economic woes and complaints, the unemployment rate remains low, GDP growth is strong, and the S&P 500 recently hit record highs. Yet, Americans are still feeling it in their pockets as the price of goods has gone up. 

It is a good reminder that the "facts" are often less important than how it feels. 

It is still early, but what do you think will happen?

Going With The Flow: Functional Mapping

There’s a concept in design and transportation called Desire Paths. 

The desired path is the path that users take despite the intended path by the builder of a community or application. 

Here’s a great example. 

Reddit via itstartswithani

And, here’s a whole community forum focused on desire paths. 

It’s often easier to take advantage of human nature ... or just nature ... than fight against it. 

To that effect, I shot a short video on how this relates to your business and tech adoption.  I call it functional mapping.  Check it out. 

 

Understanding the natural path for both technology and your clients makes it easier to understand and anticipate the capabilities, constraints, and milestones that define your path forward.   That means you actually have to understand the different types of users and what they expect to do.

Each stage is really about the opportunity to scale desired capabilities and automation.

It isn’t really about building the technology; rather, it is about supporting the desire.

You don’t have to get it right.  You just have to create momentum in the right direction.  This means that if you understand what is coming, you don’t have to build it … but you should figure out where you want to build something that will move things in the right direction.

You’ve probably heard me talk about how Capabilities become Prototypes.  Then, Prototypes become Products.  And ultimately, Products become Platforms.

This model is fractal.  That means it works on many levels of magnification or iteration.

What first looks like a product is later seen as a prototype for something bigger.

SpaceX’s goal to get to Mars feels like their North Star right now ... but once it’s achieved, it becomes the foundation for new goals.

This Framework helps you validate capabilities before sinking resources into them. 

It helps you anticipate which potential outcomes you want to accelerate.  Rather than simply figuring out the easiest next step … you have to figure out which path is the best next step to your desired outcome.

The world is changing fast!  I hope you’re riding the wave instead of getting caught in the riptide!

Natural Technologies

Nature can be pretty cool. 

It turns out that a lot of what we think humans "invented" was so "natural" that nature created it first.

For example, the British Planthopper has mechanical gears in its legs.

 

Or the fact that the T4 Bacteriophage looks like a lunar lander and has 20 sides.

via biology4u

Interestingly, some of man's greatest inventions are so innate that natural selection (or intelligent design) created them before we did. 

Want another example?

Hospital-acquired infections are diseases caught due to organisms people are exposed to at a hospital (or other healthcare-related areas). They account for over 99,000 deaths a year.

Because of that, R&D worked extensively to find bacteria-killing surfaces …. It turns out Dragonflies have been doing it for centuries.

Research companies (and dragonflies) have used nano-textured surfaces to create a "bed of nails" that destroys bacteria by puncturing the cell wall. 

If you like stuff like this, Check out this link on order vs. chaos.

 There is always opportunity around you … You just have to know where to look.

New Beginnings or Evolutionary Growth

Last week, I started getting “Happy Work Anniversary!” messages on LinkedIn ... and I was a bit confused because people kept mentioning 24 years. 

Twenty-four years ... That can’t be right.  Can it?

For context, here’s what I looked like around that time.

 

My eldest son (who’s now married with a baby) was in middle school.  I was just out of the events I described in my TEDx talk. 

However, depending on your definition, the 24th anniversary can be true or false.  Legally, the Capitalogix that exists today is distinct from the initial iteration.  Additionally, the company has expanded, its direction has shifted, and what was once a one-person operation has grown into a team of over 20 individuals focused on advancing and commercializing the field of Artificial Intelligence through something we call Amplified Intelligence (which is the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually improve performance).

Thinking back on the effort, the ideas, the people, the inventions, and even the purpose ... in some respects, it feels like change is the only constant.  However, there are certain things that remain unchanged.  It is by observing these unaltered elements that you can truly understand the essence of the thing itself.

It reminds me of the Ship of Theseus (also known as Theseus’ Paradox), which is a philosophical thought experiment that poses the question of whether an object that has had all of its parts replaced is still considered to be the same object.  It raises issues of identity, continuity, and change over time.  The concept can be applied to physical objects, living organisms, and even organizations or businesses.  It challenges our understanding of what it means for something to be fundamentally the same, and if an object can remain unchanged despite undergoing significant changes over time.

The name “Capitalogix” originated in 2000, and a surprising amount of the original “North Star” purpose still exists.  Looking back at my early notes and plans, I’m surprised by how much holds up despite 20+ years of passing ... but almost all of it has needed some course correction to adjust to changing tides.  

Regardless, it’s staggering to think about how long I’ve worked in A.I. (since 1991, when it was hard to spell A.I.) and how far we’ve come. 

If I had known how difficult it was going to be at the beginning, I would have probably never pursued it.  However, after experiencing the challenges and realizing how hard it is to make meaningful progress, I feel better that I did.  This is because I now know that we didn’t just create a competitive advantage – we learned how to create a sustainable competitive advantage.

It’s easy for people to focus on a capability; it’s another to make it industrial-grade, robust, reliable, and able to work in challenging conditions. 

They say that things that don’t kill you make you stronger.  It’s true for people, but it’s also true for technologies.  

Life (and Business) constantly expose us to conditions and opportunities that lead to new beginnings and evolutionary growth.

As I write this, I see it at Capitalogix as we pursue new possibilities and probabilities. 

We didn’t come this far — just to come this far!

What about you?

Onwards!

Ranking The Most Popular AI Tools

Last week, I shared some of the tools I've been using recently to help run my business and life. 

As we all know, several AI tools are taking the world by storm - notably ChatGPT, but others as well. 

It only took ChatGPT 5 days to reach a million users. But the whole AI tools market is growing at a surprising rate.

VisualCapitalist put together a nice infographic on the most popular AI tools of 2023. 

via VisualCapitalist.

I am familiar with some of the apps mentioned (such as Quillbot, Character.ai, or Hugging Face), but I don't use them. On the other hand, I had no prior knowledge of others (such as NovelAI, Janitor AI, and Civitai).  

It's remarkable how much of the market ChatGPT currently controls on its own. In 2023, it is estimated that ChatGPT attracted 14.6 billion visitors, or more than 60% of all AI tool visits.

With that said, it's a marathon, not a sprint. The "feel" of this AI market reminds me of the dot-com bubble times of the late 90s and early 2000s. Many products took the world by storm only to be overthrown by a more robust competitor. For example, consider how few early web browsers or search engines still exist. I suspect that will be true of many early leaders here, too.

It isn't sexy, but it is a safe bet that Google's Bard and Microsoft's Copilot will continue to grow because of investment, acquisition, and distribution.

Remember, new technologies lead to new products and new platforms ... and the current crop of these AI tools are still only at the beginning of their cycles. I anticipate that many innovative frontstage products like ChatGPT will gain greater importance and profitability (albeit with less prominence) as they move backstage to become the backbone or plumbing infrastructure of various other products and services.

The development of new technologies brings about the emergence of new products and platforms. 

AI capabilities and adoption are growing exponentially. It will be interesting to see what else stays on the list three years from now. 

Posts like these are helpful reminders to consider technology adoption and hype cycles.

It's only the beginning ... Onwards!

Predictions for 2024

At the beginning of 2022, I shared VisualCapitalist's predictions for the year, and then at the end of the year, we checked to see how well they did. 

Since they posted a 2024 version, I figured, why not do it again? 

via VisualCapitalist.

You can find forecasts anywhere ... but since they're basically guesswork and I don't know what data they are using or excluding, I don't spend much time on them.

That said, I found this infographic easy to look at and think about. So, it's as good a place to start as any. Also, VC draws from a database of 700 expert forecasts to make this chart. 

Some are pretty easy to predict - like GenAI's shift to text-to-video. Or, an increase in lawsuits and regulations around AI. Others are questionable. In the past few months, we've seen TikTok investing heavily in the growth of its e-commerce business. Insiders have stated they believe they're trying to compete with Amazon. We'll see how that goes?

On a positive note, it seems like most are predicting positive effects on the market & economy, including a decrease in inflation and interest rates, bonds on the way back, and record highs in the S&P 500.

I'd love to hear your predictions. What do you think?

Some New AI Tools I've Been Hearing Good Things About

At the core of Capitalogix's existence is a commitment to systemization and automation. 

Consequently, I play with a lot of tools.  I think of this as research, discovery, and skill-building.  There is a place for that in my day or week.  However, few of those tools make it into my real work routine.

Here is a list of some of the tools that I recommend.  I'm not saying I use them regularly ... but in some cases, I should (it reminds me of some exercise equipment I have). 

Since the late 90's, I've been collecting tools to make my business more efficient and my life easier. 

It's a little embarrassing, but my most popular YouTube video is an explainer video on Dragon NaturallySpeaking from 13 years ago.  It was (and still is) dictation software, but from a time before your phone gave you that capability. 

Today, I have more tools than I know what to do with, but here are a few that keep coming up in conversations. 

Daily.AI - AI Newsletters

We've launched a new newsletter that is AI-curated by Daily.ai.  It matches the tone and style of my newsletters, gets good engagement, and (honestly) looks much better than what we put out.

Our handwritten newsletters still do better on some metrics - but it's a nice addition and a promising technology. 

For transparency, our handwritten newsletters get around 45% opens, and 10% click-throughs and our new AI newsletter is averaging around 38% opens but around 30% click-throughs.  Our normal newsletter isn't focused on links - which is why the click-through isn't as good. 

That said, Daily.AI is a great tool that creates compelling two-way communication with your audience way easier and cheaper (time, money, and effort) than something similar done manually.

This is an example of how people won't get replaced by AI ... people will get replaced by people who use AI better. 

Opus.pro - AI Video Repurposing 

Opus.pro takes your long-form video content and cuts it into short-form content that you can post as teasers to other channels like YouTube Shorts, TikTok, or Instagram Reels. 

For me, I tend to do more long-form content naturally.  I go on a podcast, speak at a conference, or to a mastermind group.  I end up with a 30-minute+ video that I don't have the time or interest in using.  This tool allows me to find the best parts quickly - and still allows editing to make it perfect. 

For someone interested in really pursuing video, it's not worth it.  If you're interested in being present online, and not worried about making it your career, this is a great tool to streamline and systematize your process. 

Type.AI 

Type.AI is an interesting AI-first document editing tool.  At its core, Type is a faster, better, and easier way to write.

A lot of people are using chat GPT for some editing.  Type is a good example of a next-generation tool that incorporates ChatGPT and other LLMs under the surface.  It is aware of what you are doing and lets you know what it can do. 

Type jumpstarts the creative process and banishes the blank page.  Underneath its gorgeous UI are powerful features for generating ideas, querying your document, experimenting with different models, and easily formatting your work.

The point is that with a tool like this, you don't have to be good at prompt engineering.  The tool does that for you – so you can focus on the writing.

GetVoila.AI 

Voilà is an all-in-one AI assistant in a browser extension.  That means it goes with you everywhere you go on the web and supercharges your browser by making it use ChatGPT to do what it does best without you having to do more than check what is available.

 

Voilà simplifies the process of working with the content of websites and URLs, making it easy to convert them into various types of content, summarize them, or extract key information.  For example, if I am watching a YouTube video, I can right-click and choose "Summarize" - it creates a short video summary from the transcript.  Or, while writing this sentence, a simple right-click lets me choose: Improve, Fix grammar, Make longer, Make shorter, Summarize, Simplify, Rephrase, or Translate.

 

This is more useful than I thought.  I use it well ... then forget about it.  When I use it again, I often find that it got better.  I think you will find that with a lot of the tools these days.

 Don't worry about how well you use tools like this.  It is enough that you get better at using tools like these to accomplish what you really want.

Explore a little.  Then, let me know what you found worth sharing.

2023 In Review

Last week, we asked how markets did in 2023.  This week, I want to highlight some of the significant events that occurred in 2023.   

Here is a Visual Capitalist infographic to help.

2023 was defined by two major themes, the first being geopolitical strife, and the second being the proliferation of artificial intelligence. 

What geopolitical strife, you ask?  Seemingly everywhere you looked (from China and Taiwan to Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East, or even the happenings in  Britain and the U.S.) ... This was an interesting year. 

Of course, there were other types of significant events, too, like the collapse of several Silicon Valley/Crypto banks. 

Many of the trends we've seen in 2023 will have aftershocks in 2024.  Still, the only thing constant is change ... and it will be interesting to see what changes.  I think we've seen increased caution as a result of the last few years, but I think people are now getting used to the new normal. 

Do you expect 2024 to be better?

Time will tell.

Don't forget the Trump trials and that it is an election year ... or that crypto is making a comeback – and AI will only accelerate.

We live in interesting times!

The World's Top 25 Defense Companies

What's happening in the Middle East with the Israel-Hamas war is incredibly complicated and polarizing.  On top of the long history, partisan interpretations, chronic conflict, and acute suffering, you're seeing propaganda being used at a scale beyond what we've seen before. 

Technology is a big driver of misinformation - and what is happening now provides an early warning of what's to come in future wars and political contests. 

While the topic of Israel and Hamas is beyond the purview of this blog/newsletter - the impact of war on markets is not.

My heart is with all impacted, and I'm never rooting for war or the death of innocent civilians. 

With that said, war seems to be a fact of life.

The most powerful countries in the world spend billions of dollars on defense a year. 

In light of this, VisualCapitalist put together a chart identifying the top 25 defense companies in the world.  Many of these have seen massive spikes in price in the past few months.  I was surprised by how many of the companies I didn't recognize.

 via VisualCapitalist

The U.S. unsurprisingly tops the list, with Lockheed and RTX (formerly Raytheon) taking the top two spots. 

While we don't usually think of some of these companies as defense contractors, Airbus produces multiple drones and transports, Rolls Royce is a supplier of aircraft and naval engines, and Honeywell is actually involved not just in aerospace - but actual space. 

Understanding where and how companies generate revenue (as well as comprehending the relevant competitive landscapes and cooperative ecosystems) are crucial activities regardless of investment strategy.

I believe it's easier to predict human nature than it is to predict technology.  There is a reason that new technology often flows into porn, gambling, and military earlier than other areas ... the reason is that it's so easy to monetize there. We know opportunity often rises from pain and conflict - so it's still valuable to understand these concepts and figures. 

Hope that helps. 

Entrepreneurship Over The Last 30 Years

I've been an entrepreneur ever since I can remember.  I sold tadpoles and frogs in elementary school, colored sand terrariums in middle school, stereos and sound systems in high school and college, and I started a database development company in business school. 

But it wasn't until the early 90s that I made being an entrepreneur my career.

I quickly realized I needed peer groups and advisors to help take my businesses to the next level. 

Verne Harnish was one of the first people I found.  I joined the Young Entrepreneur's Organization (but so many of us have lost our "Y" that it's now just called the Entrepreneurs' Organization.) Among many entrepreneurial endeavors, Verne founded EO, Gazelles (a global executive education and coaching company), and Birthing of Giants (now called the Entrepreneurial Masters Program at MIT).  

I was recently at a party with him in Arizona.  While there, I asked him, "What's changed about entrepreneurship over the last 30 years?".  Here is a short video with his response. 

 

I was happy to hear that the answer was "Nothing".  While the hot industries, technologies, and players have changed, many of the winning principles are timeless. 

This is a helpful reminder that, even when innovating, we should focus on what doesn't change - rather than what does. 

Verne has lots of insights.  I recommend you check out his books - Scaling Up,  Mastering The Rockefeller Habits, and The Greatest Business Decisions of All Time.

He also offers some great one-page tools that you can download here.

Good Stuff ... Hope it Helps!