Capitalogix

Defining A Meaningful Life - Howard Getson on The American Dreams Show

Recently, I was interviewed on The American Dreams Show. with Alan Olsen.

Alan is a wealth manager to the ultra-wealthy.  His American Dreams show is very popular in Silicon Valley.

It's a show about finding your path in life, and making businesses thrive through adversity and challenging economic times. 

We talked about my career path and how I went from a young lawyer to spending over 25 years running tech companies ... and we talked about the lessons I learned along the way.

It is different than other interviews I've done.  Take a look.

 

via The American Dream (transcript is here) 

I also encourage you to check out some of the other American Dream interviews.

Good stuff!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 8th, 2017

 Old people and their joints ... it's becoming an issue. 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Culture Doesn't Just Beat Strategy, It Must Be the Strategy. (Inc)
• Google Reveals the Top Things People Want to Find out How To' Do. (TechCrunch)
• Pain Leads to Empathy and Self-preservation: Should We Make Robots Feel' It? (Aeon)
• Gartner's Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Adds 5G and Deep Learning. (Forbes)
• Hostile Terrain: Tank Traps, Fake Towns & Secret Tunnels of the Korean Borderlands. (99PercentInvisible)

Trading Links:

• Seventy-Eight Billion Reasons Why Bitcoin Is the New Gold. (Globe&Mail)
• Amazon Wants to Open a $5 Billion Second HQ in North America. (CNN)
• Has Disruption from E-commerce Run Its Course? (Latest)
• Who Vladimir Putin Thinks Will Rule the World. (CNN)
• Employees at the World's Largest Hedge Fund Use iPads to Rate Each Other's Performance in Real-Time – See How It Works. (Insider)

Gartner's 2017 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Identifies Innovations Worth Monitoring

There's a lot of "hype" these days.  Social media and tools like Kickstarter would have you believe that every new idea is the "next big new thing".

In contrast, Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct, contextually understandable, snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit on the hype cycle.

Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and  "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"

 

What's a "Hype Cycle"?

 

As technology advances, it is human-nature to get excited about the possibilities we imagine ... and then to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met. 

At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity. 

At this point in time, Machine Learning/Deep Learning and Connected Homes are at the peak of their hype cycles ... Meanwhile, Augmented Reality and Blockchain have matured past the hype phase (with Self-Driving Cars following close behind).  

This year, according to Gartner, there are three overarching "mega-trends" to watch. 

• AI Everywhere shows the transition towards a ubiquitous AI experience, from self-driving cars, to machine learning, and to smart robots.  Consider the impact on traffic/accidents with the adoption of autonomous vehicles, or the ability of machine learning to process more data faster. 
• Transparently Immersive Experiences shows our transition towards human-centric contextual and fluid technological experiences.  - like Connected Homes or Virtual Reality. Consider the impact of Augmented Reality on advertisements or gamification. 
• Digital Platforms shows the transition of emergent platforms into adoption. Platforms like Blockchain, IoT,  and Quantum Computing. Consider the effects of bitcoin and other blockchain initiatives, as well as the opportunity for new business models centered around these platforms.

 

Here is the chart. You can click the image to see it larger. 

 

via Gartner

For comparison, here is the chart from last year; and you can check out my article on 2015's hype cycle here.

via Gartner

The hype cycle gives us an idea of which of these technologies will likely survive the market hype and have a potential to become a part of our daily life. 

Here are the five regions of Gartner's Hype Cycle framework:

1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

  

Which technologies do you think are over-hyped ... and which ones might survive the hype?

I find this stuff fascinating.  Consider some of the interesting technologies just starting their hype cycle:

• Human Augmentation has the potential to enhance our bodies and minds using electrical currents, chips, or exoskeletons, but also raises ethical and legal questions. 
• Quantum Computing is still in its infancy, but could theoretically solve certain problems far faster than classical computers. 
• Smart Dust opens up the possibility of monitoring essentially everything by creating a vast network of minuscule sensors that can detect various inputs. 
• 4D Printing would theoretically allow us to print objects that reshape or self-assemble over time. 

We live in amazing times! 

Onwards. 

How Many People Lie To You On Social Media?

Social Media often becomes a "best-of" reel of our lives ... carefully curated to show off our best selves. 

Imagine what that leads to for us and our children ... ??

It is tough to live up to your social media standards (let alone to keep up with others').

This  Instagram model (apparently, that's a thing now) with over half a million followers took to changing her captions to display the falsehoods. 

 

via The Guardian

 

How tempting is it to photoshop (or embellish) a little?  In a recent survey of 2000 British people, more than 75% admitted to lying about themselves on social profiles.

Here is a chart ranking the most common topics people are most dishonest about.

 

via 10Awesome

 

Fake photos, fake ownership, and relationship lies top the list.  

There was something magical about taking a trip back before everything was a camera.

What Is Machine Learning?

Machine Learning is a broad term ... Essentially, it's a method of data analysis that automates the process of building models.

That means instead of having a programmer figure out how to solve a problem, you have the program figure out how to solve the problem. 

While you probably know the basics, wisdom comes from making finer distinctions. 

So, here is a chart that sheds some light on the current state of Machine Learning.

 

via techleer

Also, if you are interested, here is a list of some other good visual summaries and articles about AI and Machine Learning:

• Understanding Machine Learning (Futurism)
• Machine Learning Cheat Sheet (DataScienceCentral)
• The Periodic Table Of AI (XPrize)
• Difference between Machine Learning, Data Science, AI, Deep Learning, and Statistics (DSC)
• A Visual Introduction to Machine Learning (r2d3)

 

How Amazon's AI Is Changing How You Stock A 'Pantry'

Normally, we see stores and warehouses organized by section - Cereals, Cheese, Fruit. This makes sense because as humans, it's easier to find everything if it's organized logically for us. 

Amazon is changing that. 

Their new service, "Prime Now," promises thousands of items delivered to you in around an hour.

That level of immediacy and activity creates an interesting set of logistical problems.  For example, how would you organize the warehouse to enable that level of service?  The answer might surprise you.

 

Tech Insider via Yahoo

The answer is you don't.  If you walked into one of Amazon's PrimeNow warehouses, you'd see a bunch of pods with random items next to each other.  You might find cleaning supplies next to a children's toy, or maybe even an adult toy. 

While this may seem weird or counter-intuitive ... with numerous "shoppers" all going through the warehouse at the same time, if the warehouse was organized by category or popularity,  the result would be traffic jam bottlenecks and less throughput. 

By organizing items randomly, and having the list of items ready ahead of time, Amazon's computers can create an optimum path for each "shopper" that takes into account the position of the items, where the checkout is, and where other shoppers are grabbing items.  

That optimum path is critical in getting your order on time.   This is another example of organized chaos – where human logic (or common sense) is not the most efficient or effective path to an optimal solution.

Pretty Cool!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 25th, 2017

Interesting week in the Twit-o-Sphere as Steph Curry and Donald Trump feud, and Ted Cruz is "caught" liking porn on Twitter. 

Who would have guessed Twitter would play such a strong a role in today's political climate?

I believe that everyone deserves the right to my opinion (as much as anyone) ... Still, sometimes silence is the best policy.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• This Company Wants to Grow A.I. by Using Blockchain. (CNBC)
• New Neuroscience Reveals 4 Rituals that Will Make You Happy. (TheLadders)
• Google Wants You to Know What Data It Has on You. (Fortune)
• Marriage vs. the Single Life: Who Has It Better? (PsychologyToday)
• Hackers Could Program Sex Robots to Kill. (NYPost)

Trading Links:

• One-Tenth of Global GDP is Now Held in Offshore Tax Havens. (ZeroHedge)
• Goldman Sachs Thinks Fintech Has As Much Potential as Trading. (Quartz)
• Cowboys Are World's Most Valuable Team at $4.8 Billion. (AP News)
• Social Finance: Where Wealth and Values Meet. (Forbes)
• Obama Goes from White House to Wall Street in Less Than One Year. (Bloomberg)

The A.I. Revolution: Humans Need Not Apply?

We're in the midst of a revolution, and no, I don't mean a political one. 

Artificial Intelligence has been around since the 1950's.  But, we are at an inflection point.  It is no longer an "if" ... it is a "when".  And the answer is probably "Now!"

AI technologies are expanding into broad and diverse markets.

Artificial Intelligence is no longer seen as a massive R&D effort – it is becoming a core competency.

Here is a chart showing  AI adoption in various industries. (replace image with non-blurry one)

 

McKinsey Global Institute via Vox

While AI is promising on many fronts, this "revolution" elicits fear from many.

For example, Elon Musk told the National Governors Association that the risks posed by A.I. are so great that it needs to be proactively regulated before it's too late. 

What about you?  Are you afraid of Skynet turning on, becoming self-aware and setting out to destroy the human race.? Or, are you looking to benefit from the new capabilities and possibilities AI creates for us?

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 17th, 2017

Hillary is now on a book tour for her new book "What Happened" ... I haven't read it, but Politifact has. 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Hackers Have Already Started to Weaponize Artificial Intelligence. (Gizmodo)
• Your Future Sex Robot Could Be Hacked and Programmed to Murder You. (BGR)
• You Can Actually Be Allergic to Exercise. (Popular Science)
• Multivitamins a Waste of Money and Just Create 'Very Expensive Urine'. (TheGuardian)
• iPhone X Impressions: 'Striking' Display and 'Sensational-Looking' Design Make High Price Worth It. (MacRumors)

Trading Links:

• In China's Hinterlands, Workers Mine Bitcoin for a Digital Fortune. (New York Times)
• Janet Yellen Has Reached Breakfast-With-The-President's-Daughter Levels of Job Insecurity. (DealBreaker)
• Finance: How It Made Civilization Possible. (CFAInstitute)
• The Blockchain Will Do to Banks and Law Firms What the Internet Did to Media. (HBR)
• 16 Quotes from Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's Right-Hand Man. (BInsider)

Actions Have Consequences - Weekly Reading List - September 15th, 2017

I've always enjoyed the aphorism: "Everyone is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid." Last week, I saw a different version of that ... and thought it was worth sharing.

Here is a peek at what I've been reading lately. These are the links I saved this week. Hope you find some interesting and enjoyable tidbits. Let me know if you read something I'd like ... Or if there are other sources I should add to my weekly reading. Thanks.

Lighter Links:

Mind-Reading AI is the Newest Defense against Cyber Attacks. (TNW) New Apple Watch May Be a Bigger Upgrade Than the iPhone. (NYPost) How to Explore a City like a Local Using Your Smartphone. (New York Times) Humans Obtain 80% of Info through Vision, and Computers are Following the Trend. (ValueWalk) The Drive for Perfect Children Gets a Little Scary. (Bloomberg) We are Nowhere Close to the Limits of Athletic Performance. (Nautilus) Fear and Loathing at Effective Altruism Global 2017. (SlateStarCodex) Transforming to Win Future Wars. (TheStrategyBridge) Siri vs Google Assistant vs Cortana vs Alexa: Battle of the AI Assistants.(T3) Scientists Make Step Towards Humans Guiding Robots by Telepathy. (FT) Kick Ass like a Russian Spy. (OZY) What Does the Future of Democracy Look Like? (Scout) What Science Fiction like 'Westworld' and 'Black Mirror' Tells Us about Our Near Future. (Business Insider) Edge Computing Will Blow Away the Cloud. (CIO) See a Haunting Vision of the War Machines of the Future. (Futurism) Meet the Startup That's Boot-Strapping Robot Learning with Human BrainPower. (TechReview) Scientists Find Out How Much Pee is Really in the Swimming Pool. (HuffPo) The Next-Generation Operating Model for the Digital World. (McKinsey) Microsoft's Azure Stack' for On-premises Servers Will Use Pay-as-you-go Cloud Pricing Model. (GeekWire) AI and the End of Truth. (Medium)

Market-Related Links

Ultra High Net Worth Families Are Moving Towards Riskier Asset Classes as Investment Performance Bounced-Back Last Year. (CityAM) Apple Unveils IPhone X and 8 Models as It Upgrades TV Set-Top Box.(NYT) America's Fiscal Doomsday Machine. (DailyReckoning) Swarm Fund Launches ICO for Alternative Platform. (Wealthadviser) JAMIE DIMON: Bitcoin is a Fraud That's 'Worse Than Tulip Bulbs'. (BI) Catching up on the Chinese Economy. (BaldingsWorld) The Rise and Fall of Historical World Economies. (BizInsider) A Sentimental Warning for Bulls and Bears. (HumbleStudentOfTheMarkets) Google is Acquiring Data Science Community Kaggle. (TechCrunch) Congress Just Passed a Bill that Tells NASA to Send People to Mars by 2033. (BI) Clean Disruption - Why Energy & Transportation Will Be Obsolete by 2030.(YouTube) JPM: "We See Increasing Risk of Sell-Off in the near Term". (ZeroHedge) VIX: the Truth about a Very Misunderstood Index. (Barrons) IBM, Salesforce Join AI Forces with Watson, Einstein. (USAToday) Silicon Valley and Venture Capital Firms Bet on Ag Start-Ups. (Agriculture) Global Reflation Need Not Mean Higher Inflation in 2017. (FT) Warren Buffett Shares How to Get Rich During Turbulent Times. (Mic) The World's Biggest Gamblers. (Economist) S&P 500 Records 3rd Most Overbought Reading in 10 Years. (SeeItMarket) Why Markets are Inefficient: a Gambling Theory' of Financial Markets for Practitioners and Theorists. (SSRN)

 

Let me know what you think. Thanks. - Howard