Capitalogix

2023 In Review

Last week, we asked how markets did in 2023.  This week, I want to highlight some of the significant events that occurred in 2023.   

Here is a Visual Capitalist infographic to help.

2023 was defined by two major themes, the first being geopolitical strife, and the second being the proliferation of artificial intelligence. 

What geopolitical strife, you ask?  Seemingly everywhere you looked (from China and Taiwan to Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East, or even the happenings in  Britain and the U.S.) ... This was an interesting year. 

Of course, there were other types of significant events, too, like the collapse of several Silicon Valley/Crypto banks. 

Many of the trends we've seen in 2023 will have aftershocks in 2024.  Still, the only thing constant is change ... and it will be interesting to see what changes.  I think we've seen increased caution as a result of the last few years, but I think people are now getting used to the new normal. 

Do you expect 2024 to be better?

Time will tell.

Don't forget the Trump trials and that it is an election year ... or that crypto is making a comeback – and AI will only accelerate.

We live in interesting times!

The World's Top 25 Defense Companies

What's happening in the Middle East with the Israel-Hamas war is incredibly complicated and polarizing.  On top of the long history, partisan interpretations, chronic conflict, and acute suffering, you're seeing propaganda being used at a scale beyond what we've seen before. 

Technology is a big driver of misinformation - and what is happening now provides an early warning of what's to come in future wars and political contests. 

While the topic of Israel and Hamas is beyond the purview of this blog/newsletter - the impact of war on markets is not.

My heart is with all impacted, and I'm never rooting for war or the death of innocent civilians. 

With that said, war seems to be a fact of life.

The most powerful countries in the world spend billions of dollars on defense a year. 

In light of this, VisualCapitalist put together a chart identifying the top 25 defense companies in the world.  Many of these have seen massive spikes in price in the past few months.  I was surprised by how many of the companies I didn't recognize.

 via VisualCapitalist

The U.S. unsurprisingly tops the list, with Lockheed and RTX (formerly Raytheon) taking the top two spots. 

While we don't usually think of some of these companies as defense contractors, Airbus produces multiple drones and transports, Rolls Royce is a supplier of aircraft and naval engines, and Honeywell is actually involved not just in aerospace - but actual space. 

Understanding where and how companies generate revenue (as well as comprehending the relevant competitive landscapes and cooperative ecosystems) are crucial activities regardless of investment strategy.

I believe it's easier to predict human nature than it is to predict technology.  There is a reason that new technology often flows into porn, gambling, and military earlier than other areas ... the reason is that it's so easy to monetize there. We know opportunity often rises from pain and conflict - so it's still valuable to understand these concepts and figures. 

Hope that helps. 

Entrepreneurship Over The Last 30 Years

I've been an entrepreneur ever since I can remember.  I sold tadpoles and frogs in elementary school, colored sand terrariums in middle school, stereos and sound systems in high school and college, and I started a database development company in business school. 

But it wasn't until the early 90s that I made being an entrepreneur my career.

I quickly realized I needed peer groups and advisors to help take my businesses to the next level. 

Verne Harnish was one of the first people I found.  I joined the Young Entrepreneur's Organization (but so many of us have lost our "Y" that it's now just called the Entrepreneurs' Organization.) Among many entrepreneurial endeavors, Verne founded EO, Gazelles (a global executive education and coaching company), and Birthing of Giants (now called the Entrepreneurial Masters Program at MIT).  

I was recently at a party with him in Arizona.  While there, I asked him, "What's changed about entrepreneurship over the last 30 years?".  Here is a short video with his response. 

 

I was happy to hear that the answer was "Nothing".  While the hot industries, technologies, and players have changed, many of the winning principles are timeless. 

This is a helpful reminder that, even when innovating, we should focus on what doesn't change - rather than what does. 

Verne has lots of insights.  I recommend you check out his books - Scaling Up,  Mastering The Rockefeller Habits, and The Greatest Business Decisions of All Time.

He also offers some great one-page tools that you can download here.

Good Stuff ... Hope it Helps!

Artificial Intelligence Meets "Woo-Woo"

As someone who has been in tech and Artificial Intelligence for over 30 years, my personality and thought processes are centered around facts and reason. 

With that said, I've always had a soft spot for "arts" over sciences. I appreciate meditation and mindfulness practices.  Unquestionably, I've found that technology helps me do that quicker, better, and with more certainty about the results.

I am fascinated by both Neuro-Linguistic Programming and Natural Language Processing. 

That's what made this conversation with Joshua Pellicer so great. 

Joshua has lots of experience using AI tools and techniques and getting the most from generative AI.

When I asked him what use cases he was most excited and optimistic about, he answered "Manifestation". 

That is not what I expected ... but it made sense after discussing it. Check it out. 

 

Manifestation doesn't cause the universe to hand your dreams to you on a golden platter. It does help you maintain a positive mindset and focus on what you want (instead of avoiding what you don't want). 

ChatGPT (and other similar tools, like Microsoft's Co-Pilot, Google's Bard, Anthropic's Claude, Perplexity, and Quora's Poe can help create a guide and an image to help you better ideate and actualize your dreams. 

AI is only as good as what you use it for ... I think this is an example of a clever and powerful use of generative AI. 

What do you think?

Why You Need Patents ...

I shared an article titled “Who’s The Most Innovative?” a few weeks ago.  That post alluded to the power of patents.  Here, we'll discuss the importance and value of intellectual property in more detail.

Historically, profitable companies often built or sold some tangible product. Consequently, the Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, landowners, etc.

However, over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, the leaders are in tech, intellectual property, and other intangible assets.

As business becomes more digital, you will see an increasing shift towards creating and protecting intellectual property.

When most people hear that, they probably think about patents.  So, let's start there.

A patent is property ... meaning it is an asset.  Technically, it is a legal right granted by the government to an inventor, giving them the exclusive right to make, use, sell, and import an invention for a limited period (typically 20 years from the filing date) in exchange for public disclosure of the invention. To obtain a patent, an inventor must apply and prove that their invention is new, non-obvious, and useful. In addition, the application process involves disclosing the details of the invention so that others can learn from it.

Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors ... but they’re more than that. They help you create partnerships and an ecosystem. Ecosystems & communities have proven to be the difference between legacy businesses and flash-in-the-pans. It’s the difference between having a product and having a platform.

Patents add dimensionality and revenue streams.

Take Tesla. They’re not just in the business of making cars or pushing the proliferation of electronic vehicles. They’re creating a suite of capabilities that are patentable and licensable. In the future, they can license the self-driving capability (because why would someone build it when they can license it?). They can license the ability to update a car’s operating system over the Internet (or by their Starlink Satellite offering). They can also grow into a clean energy business. I’m sure there are other strategic byproducts I’m missing – but you get the idea.

As they develop these tools and create intellectual property, these same inventions can also become a weighing and measuring tool to find out where people are interested, and identify where people are spending time, money, and energy.  Here is a 60-second video that explains the concept.

 

Patents make the intangible, tangible.

They provide a concrete form to innovative concepts, enabling businesses to protect and capitalize on their intellectual property.

This mindset also creates the infrastructure for change and anticipating future needs, and ensures companies remain adaptable and positioned for long-term sustained growth.

Getting Started

When I help people understand how to move forward with AI, the first thing I ask them is “What’s your why?”. I ask that because as soon as you lose sight of why you built your business in the first place, you’re lost.  

After you understand yourself and your business, you have to understand the industry-wide ecosystems, and where the low-hanging fruit are.

If you know the low-hanging fruit, your problem statement, your value proposition, and your “why” you’re in a great place to move forward.

You can use that understanding to stack some easy wins and create bandwidth for larger endeavors.

The effort-to-impact ratio is a great way to think of how you get started. As you begin thinking about staking ground, you don’t want to do the flashy and cost-intensive stuff first. You want to keep a low profile and start to create walls that will help you in the future.  

You can use trade secrets, instead of patents, when you don't want to disclose what you do and how you do it.  A trade secret is any non-public information that provides a business with a competitive edge and is subject to reasonable steps taken by the business to keep it secret. The protection of trade secrets does not require registration or disclosure to the public. The information remains protected as long as it is kept secret and continues to provide a competitive advantage.

Other common forms of intellectual property are copyrights and trademarks.

You can also use your intellectual property as part of an attraction strategy to find potential partners or collaborators – creating what Dan Sullivan calls the “Freezone Frontier”.

Final Thoughts

In essence, patents are not just legal safeguards—they are strategic instruments that can shape the future trajectory of businesses. By embracing a holistic approach that combines legal protection, market intelligence, and strategic foresight, companies can harness the full potential of patents, unlocking new dimensions of success in an ever-evolving business landscape.

Is Luck Something You Create?

I just shared an updated article on the difference between Skill and Luck. 

Serendipitously, this article showed up in my feed from 2012. Instead of updating it, I want to share it as I wrote it, because it's still relevant, and it might lose some of its magic if I update it.

So, here it is: 

________________

Title: Some Thoughts On Whether Luck Is Something You Create

Date: November 3rd, 2012

Doing the same things, the same ways, has predictable results.  Sometimes, it is important to do things differently.

Here is a photo of me at the National Society of Black Engineers' Professional Development Conference, where I had the opportunity to present and participate in several panel discussions.

That is me, the Mitchell brothers, and Steadman Graham

I'm neither black, nor an engineer, and they aren't traders; so why would they ask me to present... and why would I say yes? 

Value is often added at the edges. Likewise, good things often happen when you travel outside your comfort or habit zone.

I gained a lot from the experience. For example, I had a discussion with a nuclear physicist who talked about how they use computer simulations to model the effects of a nuclear explosion. That gave me great ideas about how to measure the effect of a particular trading system or algorithm on a market.

Luck does favor the prepared. That conversation could just as easily have been me simply saying 'hello,' shaking hands and moving on to the next person. To some extent, the ability to take advantage of opportunities comes from the intent to find them.

Is Luck Something That You Can Maximize, Or Would You Consider It Random?

It's possible that luck is both random and something you can maximize.

Here is an example.  Many people consider the stock market to be random. Nonetheless, there are groups of people who consistently beat the market and trade profitably. How is that possible?

To explain, let's examine the decision to purchase Apple Computer stock. Regardless of whether that decision was based on gut instinct, fundamental analysis, or a technical chart pattern ... whether the price moves up or down the moment after that purchase is for the most part random.

However, if you make 10,000 trades over time, then your ability to make and keep money is about how you manage risk and opportunity. At that point, your system is not necessarily random. Consequently, it is something that you can improve.

Transform Results By Getting Un-Stuck.

Improvement means getting better and different results.  And, as you already know, it doesn't make sense to continue to do the same thing, yet expect different results.  So, a key skill is learning to recognize when things are "stuck" in a rut.

The trouble with many "ruts" is that you don't know you're in one, while you're in one. Consequently, it often takes a different perspective to become aware of new possibilities, opportunities, or best next steps.

Implications.

The interesting thing that this implies is that those opportunities were always there ... they just weren't there for you in your current state of awareness.

Similarly, recognize that many of the processes that we rely on limit our "luck" or opportunities precisely because they limit our choices. When this is done consciously it can be helpful.  However, when it's an unconscious act, it can be dangerous.

In general, you can categorize many tools as either being multipliers or diminishers. Neither one is good or bad in and of itself.  The trick is to recognize that you have a choice and that not choosing is still a choice.

_______________

I think it holds up. What do you think?

 

How Long Do You Have Left?

We only have a limited time on this earth - and a lot of it is taken by frivolous activities. 

How much time do you think the average millennial spends on their phones ... or a baby-boomer sits in front of the TV?

The answer is a lot.

via dailyinfographic

Nine years in front of entertainment devices - another 10.5 years spent working.  You get the idea.

If you have goals you want to accomplish, aspirational travel, and lifestyle plans - this really puts the idea of finding and living your passion in perspective. 

Do you have the time to waste it?

VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.

 

via visualcapitalist
 

I turned 60 this July, so I only have 20 years left, according to this calculator.   I expect more!

There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 ... but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75. 

While these numbers seem pretty high, there are two things to consider. First, COVID heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates went up. That likely won't continue (though it will likely continue to affect your insurance premiums and pension benefits). 

Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which likely differ from you (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc. 

Finally, I think Purpose is one of the most important catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire ... not because they're done working, but because they're done striving. 

If you're not growing, you're dying!

The Beatles New Song ... And Where AI Art Fails

Have you listened to the new Beatles song?  It took almost 50 years and new technology to create.

How did this happen?  An AI system, made by Peter Jackson, uncoupled the vocals from the piano on a poor-quality tape demo from the 70s.  The result – a song that would have never seen the light of day was able to bring John Lennon back from the dead to release new music for a new generation. 

You can listen to it here.

 

via The Beatles

Was it a touching tribute and closure to an extraordinary legacy?  Does it qualify as AI "art"? 

We are seeing a surge in creativity due to the rise of generative AI. 

People are doing amazing things with AI ...  and it's making entrepreneurship accessible to a new group of people.

AI is exciting, but it is also scary.  I would argue that it is a net positive.  However, there are also clear drawbacks (and potential risks).  For example, there are the obvious ones like deepfakes, art being stolen and fed into models without consent, etc.  But, there's one that many aren't talking about...

It's a lack of nuance or understanding of art. 

Here is an example of using generative AI to improve a famous art piece.

 

@Soncharm

In my opinion, the creator completely missed the point when they tried to improve Nighthawks by Edward Hopper. 

The truth is that I don't know their intent or thought process.

However, Nighthawks is famous for a reason.  It shows a patron, presumably at a late-night diner, with a desolate urban streetscape outside.  To the right audience, it embodies the isolation of a 24-hour modern society and big cities, and the hidden changes of the 20th century.  It is a poignant composition and one of the most famous American art pieces. 

Lost in the power of Generative AI, this X (Twitter) user transformed the piece by running it through an art processor multiple times. 

First, he had AI parse the image and write a description of it.  Then, he had it regenerate the image from the description.  The setting became light.  He thought he could make it better, so he moved people outside.  He parses a description again and creates a new image again.  He did this several times. 

The result is what you see — a beautifully created composition lacking any depth. 

The AI did its job; the human did not. 

A better prompt or a more artful process would have had a better result. 

But is it art?

Once created, art is in the eye or mind of the perceiver.  So, should we care who or what creates it?

Here are some other questions worth pondering.  Is AI at its best when it's amplifying human intelligence - rather than replacing it?  Or ... is the goal simply to amplify intelligence?

The Universe often gives you increasingly painful chances to learn a lesson. 

What do you think we're supposed to take from this?

It's That Time Of Year ...

It is that time of year again. We are in the midst of our annual planning for 2024.

If you haven't started planning for your business (or yourself), now is a great time to start.

The best place to start is to analyze where you are and where you've come from. I like to begin annual planning by reviewing the past year and looking back at where we were three years ago (in order to note direction, progress, and new capabilities). 

Then it is time to look forward.

The process is relatively straightforward. We start by deciding what the company's three highest priority goals are. With those goals as the base, each department (and manager) creates a big three representing what they can do to reach the company's big three. From there, we dive into quarterly rocks, SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, actionable, relevant, and timed), as well as the explicit tactical steps it will take to accomplish what we set out to achieve. We use the Entrepreneurial Operating System (EOS) to plan and execute our meetings. 

The meetings are going well. There is a lot of back-and-forth idea sharing, negotiating, and priority setting.

We've gotten a lot better at dialogue - but for many years, what we thought was a dialogue was often multiple monologues. 

The disconnect (or misconnect) was because the participants had fundamental beliefs, at a higher level than we were discussing, that were at odds with each other. 

I shot two videos that I think help teams get to alignment.

Thinking About Your Thinking

The first video discusses several techniques to enhance your decision-making. 

One of the ideas is something called "Think, Feel, Know." It explains that you have to deal with superficial thoughts before getting to deeper feelings. Then, you must deal with those feelings before you get to "knowing." 

Another technique discussed in the video involves adding time to look for "insights" after working on something. Those insights are often the seeds for something greater.

Chunking Higher

The second video is about how to chunk high enough to start from a place of agreement. Exploring distinctions from there is relatively easy.

I'll add one more concept for good measure ... Start with the end in mind. Alignment happens in stages. To get aligned on what to do next, you first have to get agreement and alignment about where you are and where you want to go.

With that said, another important component of meaningful communication is a shared understanding of a common language. Words can mean different things to different people. Simply agreeing on a "word" is different than agreeing on a common meaning.

To summarize these concepts:

1. Make sure you have a common language
2. Begin with the end in mind
3. Start with the highest level of agreement
4. Make distinctions from there

Hope that helps. 

Who's The Most Innovative?

Innovation means a lot of different things. It changes based on where we are in history, the amount of time we're considering, and the scale. 

Language was an innovation, the piece of plastic on the edge of your shoelaces was an innovation (called the Aglet), changing time signatures in music was an innovation in history, and so is artificial intelligence. 

Defining and measuring innovation is difficult even in your business ... but the Global Innovation Index attempts to do it globally. It does so by measuring several factors, like:

• Knowledge and Technology Outputs -  patents & high-tech manufacturing
• Human Capital & Research -  number of researchers & global corporate R&D investment
• Business & Market Sophistication - knowledge-intensive employment & financing/VCs for startups
• Creative Output, Institutions, and Infrastructure - trademarks, access to resources, and policy

via visualcapitalist

By this metric, Switzerland and Sweden take the top two spots - followed by the U.S. and the U.K.

Honestly, the list surprised me some. Some names I expected to be on the list - or higher on the list - didn't crack the top ten. Though Switzerland and Sweden have dominated this list for many years. 

A topic I'm very passionate about right now is patents - and how valuable they can be to your business. Here's a previous article I wrote on the subject, but I'll revisit it soon with new ideas and distinctions.