Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Sometimes things are stuck.  Other times they are not.  Here is all you need to know.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• How to Make Your Willpower Stronger -- According to Science. (Io9)
• Fear Artificial Stupidity, Not Artificial Intelligence. (New Scientist)
• Commonly Misspelled or Misused Words.  [infographic]
• 100 Ideas That Changed the Web. (BrainPickings)
• How The World Will Look In 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 Years Time. (FC)

 

Trading Links:

• Google Searches for a Way to Avoid Microsoft’s Fate. (The Guardian)
• Apple Pay Is Already Much Bigger Than You Thought. (BGR)
• 122 Things Everyone Should Know About Investing and the Economy. (Motley Fool)
• 5 Future Scenarios That Will Change How You Think About Money. (MarketWatch)
• The New Reality. China just 3D-printed an entire mansion. Here’s what it looks like. (TechInAsia)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Seeming profound is easier than being profound.

 

 

Just saying ...

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Famous Business Books Summarized in One Sentence. (Business Insider)
• Windows 10 Upgrades Will Be Free for Existing Windows Users. (Infoworld)
• Sign of the Times: Sports Illustrated Lays Off All Staff Photographers. (NPPA)
• Compilation Video of People Using Exercise Equipment Wrong. (Facebook)
• World's Saddest Service Offers Make-Believe Mate.  For $25 you get 100 text messages, 10 voice mails, one handwritten note & a lifetime of secret shame. (ValleyWag)

 

Trading Links:

• Apple Now Sells More iPhones in China than the U.S. (Cult of Mac)
• Google 'To Take On Uber with Driverless Cars'. (Telegraph)
• CME To Close Open Outcry Futures Trading Pits By This Summer. (B.I.)
• Seattle Gets a Marijuana Vending Machine. (USA Today)
• The Best Investment Advice from 20 of the World's Top Market Minds. (Forbes)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Most people say they want the unpleasant truth, rather than the comforting lie ...

 

 

What do you think?

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking Warn of Artificial Intelligence Dangers. (Mashable)
• An Open Letter to Everyone Tricked Into Fearing Artificial Intelligence. (Popular Science)
• 70's Rock Legends In Their Parents' Homes! [Photos]. (Peewee)
• The Hair of Men: What Hairstyle is Best for You. [infographic]
• How Exercise Changes Our DNA. (NYTimes)

 

Trading Links:

• US Debt Soared By $100 Billion on Last Day of 2014, Hit Record $18.14 Trillion. (ZH)
• Chinese Attacks Cost U.S. Defense Department Over $100M. (GigaOM)
• The Real Story Behind Saudi Arabia's Oil Games. (Money)
• After Warning About 2008, Yale's Robert Shiller Has Another Concern. (Valuewalk)
• Countries Begin The Race To Repatriate Their Gold. Are They Concerned About a Potential Financial Crisis? (Valuewalk)

Is a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity Drying-Up?

If you are looking for insight into global supply and demand trends, the Baltic Dry Index is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity.

It offers a real-time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand, as well as the supply of ships available to move this type of cargo.

 

 

The low is troubling because this Index is often interpreted as a reliable indicator of demand. The Index moved higher from 2003 to 2008. Since then, we have seen a series of lower highs and lower lows.

The only positive I see is the divergence of the momentum indicator (at the bottom), which is higher - even though price is lower. 

However, with stock markets around the world near all time highs ... and demand for bulk commodity movements at all time lows, the paradoxical position is staggering.

For commodity followers, low prices are one thing but some of that can be attributed to a soaring $USD.

The Baltic Dry Index tells us how much demand there is for movement of the commodities. It is clearly indicating global weakness and the Central Banks around the world dropping their interest rates ahead of the analysts in almost every market suggests all is not well.

There is always a way to be a little better!

I was in Phoenix for a meeting this past week. 

Usually, the highlight of a trip like that entails desert vistas.  This time, however, I had a chance to visit the stadium where the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl was held (and thanks to some friends at Infusionsoft, got to see a game there too).

 

 

It was kind of cool to watch a celebration of those just a little better than who they play against.

There is always a way to be a little better!

Annualized Returns for Major Asset Classes

Research Affiliates takes a look back at the last ten years and calculates the annualized return of a classic 60% equity / 40% fixed income portfolio versus 16 pure asset classes on their own.

 

The 60/40 portfolio generated 7.2% annual returns (nominal) from 2005 through the end of 2014, edging out 9 of the 16 asset classes in their data set and with significantly less volatility than most as well.

 

 

 

via Research Affiliates.

 

How does that compare to what you expected?

 

Click this link to to see more about this.

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Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Déjà vu?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• 5 Tips for Finding Flow: A High Performance User's Guide for the New Year. (Forbes)
• Science Says This Personality Trait Predicts Job Performance. What's your guess? (BI)
• Why Airlines Want to Make You Suffer. (NewYorker)
• CIA Predictions for 2015 from the Year 2000. (Business Insider)
• Coming Data Deluge Means You’ll Know Anything You Want, Anytime, Anywhere. (SingularityHub)

 

Trading Links:

• 10 Legendary Investment Rules from Legendary Investors. (Zero Hedge)
• Big Banks Manipulate Physical Market Prices | The Big Picture. (Ritholtz)
• Information in Financial Markets: Who Gets It First? (Papers)
• High-Frequency Trading Payoff Tied to News. (MarketWatch)
• Oil Companies’ Predicament: Who Should Cut Production? (Wall Street Journal)

Chart Showing U.S. Bull and Bear Markets Since the 1920s

At this point, the S&P 500 is up over 200% from its March 2009 low.

This bull market has lasted 68 months, which seems like a long time ... until you compare it to the length and strength of other bull runs.

This chart shows the history of Bull and Bear Markets in the U.S.

 

via @jerrykerns.

The blue areas represent past bull market durations and returns (total and annualized). The red areas represent past bear markets.

 

Note: this chart is a little dated - it was originally published in May.

 

Nonetheless, it is a good reminder of the bigger picture.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Hope you are having a Happy New Year!

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• How to Form a Habit:  A Scientific Approach. (Sqwiggle)
• What Peter Drucker Knew About 2020. (Harvard Business Review)
• The Unusual Books That Shaped Billionaires and Prodigies. (Tim Ferriss)
• Kermit the Frog Gives a TEDx Talk, and Twitter Loves It. (TED)
• Why Sadness Lasts Longer Than Other Emotions. (BPS Research Digest)

 

Trading Links:

• 2014 Portfolio Review: What Strategies Worked & What Didn’t? (PragCap)
• David Tepper Warns 2015 Is Poised To Be Like 1999. (ValueWalk)
• Saudis Tell Shale Industry It Will Break Them; Plans to Keep Pumping. (NakedCap)
• The Leading Robo-Advisers Now Manage $19 Billion and Continue to Grow. (BI)
• Florida Becomes 3rd Largest State Following CA & TX, NY Drops to 4th; Political Implications. (Global Economic Analysis)

What Happens to the Best Old Traders?

I visited the trading floor of the CME this week with Bobby Schwartz.

 

 

Notice his badge number. He used to be one of the largest volume traders on the exchange.

While there, Bobby quickly slipped into his old rhythm, and I had a chance to experience his old persona.  He showed me the hand signals he used on the floor. It was complex, fast-moving, and cool to see.

On one hand, the mastery was undeniable. On the other hand, it's a reminder how fast things change. It doesn't matter how good you are, or what your edge was ... times change, markets change, and so does what a trader must do to make money consistently.

Bobby is a great example of that. He now runs one of the largest IBs and has shown, many times, that adapting quickly is the way to survive - and thrive.