Capitalogix

Seasons of the Economic Cycle

Just re-looked at this chart depicting the four seasons of our basic economic cycle. 

 

Pretty clear where we are. 

 

 

LPL Mid-Year Outlook via Josh Brown.

 

I like maps (like this one) because they help you anticipate, rather than simply react to what happens. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

The virus on your computer is NOT Ebola.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• If Brainstorming Doesn't Work … Try This Technique Instead. (FastCompany)
• 5 Radical Business Quotes from Tesla Motors, Inc.'s CEO, Elon Musk. (M-Fool)
• Bill Gates's Favorite Business Book. (Wall Street Journal)
• 10 Malware Removal Apps Tested: Malwarebytes Comes out on Top. (Lifehacker)
• Which Country Does The Most Good For The World? (TED Talk Video)

 

Trading Links:

• Netflix Surpasses HBO in Subscriber Revenue. (Mashable)
• Harry Dent Predicts Central Banker Economies Will Collapse, Including Ours. (M-Oracle)
• New ETF Tracks the Billionaire Dream Team. (Bloomberg)
• USPS: 3D Printing Could Increase Shipping Revenue by Hundreds of Millions. (GigaOM)
• Math Nerds Are Taking Over Wall Street. (Money)

The Difference Between Rich and MegaRich

You've probably heard that the rich get richer.

Recently, there was much attention paid to the 1%.  Perhaps, the 1% of the 1% is even more interesting.

Here is a chart that shows how much the disparity between the rich and the really rich has widened over the past few decades.

 

Source: Mother Jones via Barry Ritholtz.

 

The average real income of the top 1 percent has increased more than 175 percent as the bottom 90 percent merely treads water.

Meanwhile, during the same period, the top earners -- the 1 percent of the 1 percent – have gained about 500 percent.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Sometimes the News cycle is worse than the news itself.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Google's 'Perfect Human' Project Isn't Evil, It's Business. (TheVerge)
• Human Workers Report Feeling Most Productive When Led By Artificial Intelligence. (PBS)
• How the NSA Built Its Own Secret Google. (First Look)
• Welcome to the New U.S. Digital Service: Geeks wanted, no stodgy suits required. (GeekWire)
• Software Shows What Children Will Look Like In 70 Years, With Unprecedented Accuracy. (Popular Science)

 

Trading Links:

• Wall Street's Revenge of the Nerds Means Fooling All The People All the Time. (Guardian)
• Crazy Prediction. Why You Should Expect More Quantitative Easing. (Joe Fahmy)
• Whopping 35% Have Debt in Collection in America: Where Is It? (GlobalEcon)
• Microsoft Has Lost About $1.7 Billion On Surface - So Far ... (CiteWorld)
• Goldman Sachs - On Crash Risk: The Simple Reason We're Probably Not About to Have Another Huge Crash. (Business Insider)

Are You Expecting More Selling - Or a Buying Opportunity

"Insider Selling Mounts as Markets Hit All-Time Highs" screamed the headline.

A glance at the charts showed that the S&P 500 Index tested below its 50-Day Moving Average for the first time in a long time.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 index experienced what technical analysts call a “Death Cross” ... where the near-term 50-day moving average dips below its long-term 200-day moving average.

 

 

What does it mean?

The "worry" is that this move is the beginning of a new bearish trend ... and the long-term moving average is seen as the new resistance level.

So far this year, small-cap stocks have underperformed their larger counterparts. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 is down almost 3% while the S&P 500 has gained over 7%.

Moreover, the small-cap index has been weakening and is off almost 7% from its all-time high set at the start of July, while the large companies in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have been hitting new highs.

The main issue is that small caps are under-performing and traders wonder what that says about the strength and breadth of the recent rally.

Nevertheless, the last time the Russell 2000 formed a death cross in July 2012, no significant sell-off followed as the index recovered and continued an uptrend.  My guess is that this pattern would get far less media attention if it was named "Phlarg" or a "50/200 Crossover".

These are the types of "early warning signs" you should watch.  However, they are just early warning signs ... until they prove themselves to be more.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Alibaba's IPO debut roared ... and its shares soared 38%. 

 

 

In many ways, the IPO was surprisingly big.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Can Technology Really Change Your Habits? (FastCompany)
• The 10,000 Hours Myth: Practice Predicts Only 12% of Performance. (Spring)
• The Man Who Created The First Pop-Up Ad Says 'Sorry'. (TheVerge)
• Do Dogs Really Feel Shame and Guilt? (Psychology Today)
• China Says New Supersonic Sub Would Reach San Francisco In 100 Minutes. (Sploid)

 

Trading Links:

• Apple's Secret War Against Samsung is Working. (MacObserver)
• Microsoft Still Doesn't Get Why the iPhone Succeeded. (TUAW)
• The Dark, Disturbing World of the Visa-For-Sale Program. (Fortune)
• U.S. Hikes Fee to Renounce Citizenship By 422%. (Forbes)
• Here's How Much Aid The U.S. Wants To Send Foreign Countries In 2015, and Why. (INFOGRAPHIC)

Four of the world's most valuable internet companies are now based in China.

Four of the world's most valuable internet companies are based in China. 

 

 

 

$BIDU $JD $TENCENT $BABA -  via StockTwits

Related articles

Alibaba IPO will make it biggest internet company in China and third biggest in the world

Alibaba IPO is wake-up call for Silicon Valley

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

The U.S. is supposed to be the model for free market economics.  So, why do we have the highest corporate tax rate in the world?

 

Here are ten posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• These Are Some of Best Time-Saving Hacks for A Productive Day. (AlltopStartups)
• There are Now 50 Colleges that Charge More Than $60,000 Per Year [List]. (Insider)
• If Logos Had Honest Slogans ... (TwistedSifter)
• Amazon Tests Kindle Unlimited, Its Own E-book Subscription Service. (FastCompany)
• Dad Claims Kingdom So 7-Year-Old Can Be Real Princess. (HuffingtonPost)

 

Trading Links:

• The Moneyball of Quality Investing. (ResearchAffiliates)
• The Difference Between a Good and a Bad Trader: What Brain Imaging Reveals. (ZH)
• Central Bank Exec Says Stocks Are 'Irrational'; China Poised To Crash. (BizInsider)
• A Cheat Sheet for Understanding the Different Schools of Economics. (Pragcap)
• 5 Everyday Products Whose Prices Are Hitting All-Time Highs. (Fool)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

What's been good for ALS, but bad for your Facebook stream?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Ask This Small Question To Make Big Changes. (FastCo)
• The Next Twenty Years Are Going to Make This Last Twenty Years Just Pale. (CDixon)
• Hackers reverse-engineer NSA's leaked bugging devices. (NewScientist)
• Masters of Love. Science says lasting relationships come down to these two things. (Atlantic)
• How Our Delusions Keep Us Sane: The Psychology of Our Essential Self-Enhancement Bias. (BrainPickings)

 

Trading Links:

• The Hockey Stick of Human Prosperity. (MarginalRevolution)
• America's Top 10 Fastest-Moving Housing Markets. (Forbes)
• Mind-Blowing Fact Of The Day: China Has Over 52 Million Vacant Homes. (ZH)
• Offshore Accounts. Far-reaching new rules aim to catch overseas tax cheats. (WSJ)
• Echo Boom. There are more 23-year olds than any other age group in the US today (BusinessInsider)

This Is Why I Let Machines Trade ...

Humans make baffling decisions.  And fear is a powerful motivator. 

My shoulder has been inflamed since having surgery a few months ago.  I've tried being patient, rehab, etc.  However, nothing seemed to work.

I joked that I would try anything.

I don't like pills, needles, or doctors (fear is a powerful inhibitor too).  Nonetheless, I'm trying accupuncture.

 

 

Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn sometimes.  It seems to be working.

Watch out, though, I think one of the side-effects is that it causes hair growth.