Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Do you know what this is a picture of?

 

 

 

While, it isn't a Mother's Day present ... it does represent my hope that you had a fun Cinco de Mayo.

 

Living in Texas, it wasn't hard to find a place to celebrate.  At this time of year, the State motto might as well be:

 

 

 

 via someecards.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• What Research Tells Us About Making Accurate Predictions? (HBR)
• Gartner's Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015. (Forbes)
• Why Scientists Believe Dogs Are Smarter Than We Give Them Credit For. (Vox)
• Healthy in a Falling Apart Sort of Way. (Well)
• Most Exclusive Golf Clubs in the U.S. (Business Insider)

 

Trading Links:

• China Has Overtaken the U.S. as the World’s Largest Economy. (Vanity Fair)
• The Outlook for Global Growth in 2015. (McKinsey)
• For Hedge Fund Managers, The Only Thing Worse Than Divorce Is Marriage. (BI)
• Technology’s Evolving Role in Wealth Management.  (Performance)
• 5 Things We Learned About Amazon’s Cloud from Its First Earnings Report. (NetworkWorld)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

You probably heard that Russians hacked into President Obama's e-mail.  Here's what it might have looked like.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Problem with Positive Thinking. (NYTimes)
• How to Invent the Future. (HBR)
• 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2015. (MIT Technology Review)
• Lutheran Insulter:  List of Insults. (ErgoFabulous)
• The Death of Textbooks?  A.I. software is reshaping traditional teaching materials.  (The Atlantic)

 

Trading Links:

• How Many Mutual Funds Routinely Rout the Market? Zero. (NYTimes)
• These Will Be the World's 20 Largest Economies in 2030. (Bloomberg)
• A Sign of the Times? Austria to No Longer Guarantee Bank Deposits. (Goldcore)
• A Look Back at Dallas Fed Fisher’s Flashiest Quotes. (WSJ)
• Santelli Stunned As Janet Yellen Admits "Cash Is Not A Store Of Value". (ZeroHedge)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Are we evolving ... or getting dumber?

 

via Scott Adams.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Ultimate List of 20 Motivational Tools for Every Entrepreneur. (Read)
• Gartner Predicts Three Big Data Trends for Business Intelligence. (Forbes)
• 6 Google Flights Tricks That Are Better Than Any Travel Agent. (Huffington Post)
• How Terrible In-Flight Wi-Fi Will Finally Become A Thing Of The Past. (FastCompany)
• The Speech President Nixon Would Have Given If Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin Had Died on the Moon. (Vox)

 

Trading Links:

• How Many Mutual Funds Routinely Rout the Market?  Zero. (NYTimes)
• These Will Be the World's 20 Largest Economies in 2030. (Bloomberg)
• A Sign of the Times? Austria to No Longer Guarantee Bank Deposits. (Goldcore)
• A Look Back at Dallas Fed Fisher’s Flashiest Quotes. (WSJ)
• Santelli Stunned as Janet Yellen Admits "Cash Is Not A Store Of Value". (ZeroHedge)

There is a growing disconnect in the stock market

On Thursday, the Nasdaq closed at its highest since March 2000.

On Friday, the S&P 500 Index traded at its intraday high (above 2120).

So, all is good ... right?  We should 'party like it's 1999'.

Some traders are noticing the disconnect between price and money flow in the US stock market.

 

via Business Insider.

A Bank of America/Merrill Lynch survey points out that US investors pulled $79B out of equities, year to date — including net outflows in 9 of the past 10 weeks — despite stock prices continuing to break new record highs.

As this imbalance grows, are we in danger of a correction?

What do you think?

Related articles

BOFAML: Hedge Funds Go Net Short S&P, Buy Gold, SIlver & Oil

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Did you have fun filling out your taxes?

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Expansive Qualities of Genius. (Evoking Genius)
• The Art of Performance Management and KPIs. (BCG Perspectives)
• Scientists Discovered How Much Sex Happy Couples Have Every Month. (Insider)
• Why We Love Back Rubs, Chili Peppers, and the Sex from “50 Shades”. (Salon)
• 20 of Steven Wright's Funniest Jokes. (MentalFloss)

 

Trading Links:

• Bull Session: How to De-Risk in a Bull Market. (Institutional Investor)
• AT&T dumped by Dow. Time to buy?  History suggests it's worth a look. (A.M.)
• Why American Airlines Just Landed In The S&P 500 Index. (ValueWalk)
• Hotels Near Record Occupancy Levels.  Is that a Good Sign for the Economy? (CalculatedRisk)
• Wall Street's Biggest Banks May Have To Make Good On $26 Billion In Oil Hedges. (ZeroHedge)

Asset Class Scoreboard Q1

A look back at the first quarter of 2015 shows that Managed Futures is relatively strong YTD.

Attain Capital posted this chart showing the comparative performance of eight asset classes.

via Attain Capital.

It will be interesting to see how the next three quarters play out.

Is Margin Debt Growth Something to Worry About - Or Celebrate?

Margin debt hit a record of almost $465 billion on the New York Stock Exchange in February, as investors borrowed more money than ever to buy into the post-financial-crisis bull market.

On one hand, that’s a good thing, for now, because it shows confidence. But, on the other hand, some traders believe that rapidly rising margin debt can be an early indicator of a market top.

This chart compares the percentage growth of Margin Debt to the S&P 500 Index going back to 1995, based on real (inflation-adjusted) data.

 

via D. Short in Advisor's Perspective.

 

Is it a coincidence that the "tops" align?

Margin debt grew at a rate comparable to the market from 1995 to late summer of 2000 before soaring into the stratosphere. The two synchronized in their rate of contraction in early 2001. But with recovery after the Tech Crash, margin debt gradually returned to a growth rate closer to its former self in the second half of the 1990s rather than the more restrained real growth of the S&P 500. But by September of 2006, margin again went ballistic. It finally peaked in the summer of 2007, about three months before the market.

So, where are we now?

Note that NYSE only releases margin statistics after a six-week delay; so it is tough to trade off them directly.

Thoughts from the Market Technicians Association Conference

I recently attended the Market Technicians Association's Annual Symposium in New York City.

It's always interesting for me to hang around with the leaders in our industry and to talk with other technical traders.

This picture is with Barry Ritholtz, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of RWM.

 

 

Barry did a great job on stage at the event. He also does a great job with his blog, The Big Picture.

Several people asked about the market sentiment expressed amongst the attendees. I think it's fair to say that most people were cautiously bullish. On one hand, that means that most people there recognize that the trend is up, and that the trend remains up until price proves otherwise.  On the other hand, most people were surprised that price has held up, this well, considering the political, economic, and social factors that can affect market prices.

On a different topic, algorithmic trading is still not mainstream. By that, I mean that currently neither algorithmic trading nor quantitative trading is part of the core practice or thought process of a group like this.

It reminds me of how most market participants considered technical analysis in the late 90s or early 2000's.

My sense is that these topics will grow in importance (to a group like the MTA) quickly as an increasing percentage of trades are based on this area of domain expertise and practice.

Stocks are the Most Expensive They've Ever Been

For what it is worth, the median stock in the S&P 500 is the most expensive it has even been.  Moreover, many valuation indicators are now at "the highest ever, except 2000". 

 

 

Perhaps when the economy is truly booming, that might make sense ... or be considered a good sign. 

At this point, it is more likely a good sign for short-sellers.

 

Traders understand that the prevailing trend has been up (and will remain that way, despite logic or argument, until price proves otherwise).

 

Related articles

What's Driving Performance During This Rally?

The Biggest Threat To The S&P 500 In The Next Month: "Biggest Buyer Of Stocks In 2015" Enters Blackout Period

Rising Bullish Optimism Reaching Extreme Levels

The S&P 500 Is Too Expensive Buy Nasdaq Instead, Goldman Recommends

A Different Look at Things

This video was taken at the SXSW conference.  While it seems a little silly, the video illustrates an interesting point.

 

 

via TimeSlice Films, pioneers in multi-camera array imaging.

 

Perspective is important. 

Being able to see the 'invisible' makes the 'impossible' possible

 

via Flug.

New technology seems like magic until you understand how it is done.