Capitalogix

Tick ... Tock ... The Doomsday Clock Is Ticking

With North Korea flexing their nuclear muscles and threatening to strike Guam, and Donald Trump threatening to unleash "Fire and Fury" in retaliation, alarm towards the possibility of military conflict becomes more prevalent.

Could there be a second Cold War? Or, is there really a chance someone pushes the button?

Regardless, it's just another green tick mark on the doomsday clock according to the "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" who post a yearly update to our doomsday clock (and have for 70 years). 

The Doomsday Clock is a globally-recognized model of our planet's health and safety - but who knew it was an actual thing based off of a range of factors?

Now - they want you to donate, and so there's a level of fearmongering, but they do provide some solid data on nuclear stockpiles, global temperature differences and more.

 

via The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

 

You can see their full article on this year's prediction here.

And if you're actually worried about North Korea - even if they now have the ability to hit the U.S., I think we need to be asking if they have a real desire to do so?

North Korea thrives off of the status quo - keeping people placated with propaganda and love for their glorious leader. 

Despite how it may seem sometimes - It's unlikely Kim Jong Un is trying to start a war with America. It just isn't smart.

But, we know that emotion is not often based on logic. 

Which brings us to the Markets.  For the first time ever, the S&P 500 Index has moved less than 0.3% for 13 consecutive days. 

Meaning, despite all the fervor in the media, and fear/elation surrounding the presidency, not much is happening.

Traders are essentially paralyzed with indecision ... a Cold War of sorts  -- or the calm before the storm?

Related articles

Trump just said the scariest thing of his presidency and this has gotten totally out of control

Report: North Korea is Seriously Considering Attacking Guam, Where 6,000 US Troops Are Stationed

Guam's residents 'unnerved' as island wakes up to North Korea's threats

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 4th, 2017

A poorly thought-out plan, executed perfectly, is better than a perfectly designed plan that never gets executed. 

 

via Calvin and Hobbes 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• NFL in Talks with Jerry Jones, Yankees to Combine Event, Hospitality Business. (BR)
• How to Boost Your Mental Health with Nootropics. (PickTheBrain)
• Study Says It's the Cuddling, More Than the Sex, that Makes You Happy. (Flipboard)
• Fukushima Disaster Evacuees Told to Return to Abandoned Homes. (TheGuardian)
• Someone Asked Their Amazon Echo If It Was Connected to the CIA. the Response Was Not Reassuring. (SomeEcards)

Trading Links:

• The Secret Economic Lives of Animals. (Bloomberg)
• Bill Gates Invests in Veggie Burger that Bleeds' like Beef to Feed the Masses and Save the Planet. (GeekWire)
• Alan Greenspan: the Bubble is in Bonds, Not Stocks. (Apple)
• Why the Post Office Gives Amazon Special Delivery. (Wall Street Journal)
• U.S. Farmers, Who Once Fed the World, are Overtaken by New Powers. (Wall Street Journal)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 28th, 2017

Talent is great,  but you can have a lot of success without it ...

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What is an Impact Filter? (StrategicCoach)
• Morning Routines and Strategies. (Tim)
• Why Some Smart People Make Foolish Decisions. (Digest)
• How Wellness' Became an Epidemic. (TheCut)
• Trump Reportedly Asked Legal Team about His Power to Pardon Aides, Family, Even Himself. (Slate)

Trading Links:

• Apple is Once Again the Most Profitable Company'. (iPhoneHacks)
• The Trump Administration Can't Stop China from Becoming an AI Superpower. (Wired)
• AI Could Revolutionize War as Much as Nukes. (Wired)
• Era of Biological Annihilation' is Underway, Scientists Warn. (New York Times)
• Gold and Silver are down 8% and 21% over the Trailing Year. Blame Bitcoin? (Fool)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 16th, 2017

Science, Art, or "PooPoo De Toro"...

  

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Ray Kurzweil: There's a Blueprint for the Master Algorithm in Our Brains (Futurism)
• Brain-training Games Don't Really Train Brains, a New Study Suggests. (WashPost)
• Why Men Don't Live as Long as Women. (Nautilus)
• What a Hunter-Gatherer Diet Does to the Body in Just Three Days. (CNN)
• Is Philosophy Simply Harder Than Science? (TLS)

Trading Links:

• Return of the Day Traders. (Forbes)
• The Unexpected Economic Consequences of Video Games. (Vox)
• Why Elon Musk's Early Adopters Take Risks. (Forbes)
• Nvidia Heads 50 Companies that Will Change the World. (Alphr)
• This is the Future of Investing, and You Probably Can't Afford It. (BizInsider)

Paul McCulley: "The Coming War between Trump & The Fed"

I just got back from an economic summit in Wyoming where I spent some time with Paul McCulley.  He is an economist and former managing director at PIMCO.   

 

He is the guy that coined the terms "Minsky moment" and "shadow banking system". 

Recently, he put together this explanatory cartoon about the relationship between Trump & The Fed.

Truth, Humor, and a Unique Perspective ... Worth a watch.

 

 

Ultimately, he is fairly bullish ... but cautious.  He says: "After eight good years on Wall Street, it's bound to end soon.  Don't be greedy."

The Bezos Empire: Amazon, Whole Foods and More

Jeff Bezos is has acquired a lot of businesses since starting Amazon - Zappos, Audible, IMDB, and most recently Whole Foods (for $13.7 billion dollars).

On top of acquiring those businesses for Amazon - he also has diversified his own interests through Bezos Expeditions and as an angel investor. 

Here is a chart to put things in perspective.  Click on the image to see the whole infographic.

 

via VisualCapitalist

 

To grow the business, their customer base, and their competitive advantage ... Amazon and Bezos re-invest heavily by aggressively acquiring companies and technologies - even though that strategy virtually eliminates Amazon's profit.

Despite minimal profits (literally less than a handful of profitable quarters since it started in 1994), Amazon has a market cap of roughly $470 billion in market capitalization.  They've shown that there's a new algorithm for success - it's about vision and market domination. It is a long game with big stakes ... and it looks like he's winning.

They've shown that there's a new algorithm for success - it's about vision and market domination. It is a long game with big stakes ... and it looks like he's winning.

But You'd Still Call Them A Success

"Bezos recently told shareholders that the goal is to 'experiment patiently, accept failures, plant seeds, protect saplings, and double down when you see customer delight.'" 

via Forbes

It's a similar idea to one that I've adopted - though on a different scale.

When people first look at Capitalogix they see a hedge fund – but that is just an application of our core capabilities.  Internally, we know that we are an innovation engine that uses domain expertise in algorithmic trading, data science, and high-performance computing to generate something new. 

Edges decay or disappear faster than ever before - that's what drives our pursuit of more ways to win.

When changing the way people play a game -  you can't play by the same rules people used to.

You Can Call Me Old Glory - Weekly Reading Links - July 7th, 2017

Hope you had a happy 4th of July - grilled out, saw some fireworks. Here's a video of Robin Williams reminding us that it's never a bad time to feel patriotism.

Here is a peek at what I've been reading lately. These are the links I saved this week. Hope you find some interesting and enjoyable tidbits. Let me know if you read something I'd like ... Or if there are other sources I should add to my weekly reading. Thanks.

Lighter Links:

Will Artificial Intelligence Replace Human Intelligence, Not Just Our Processes? (Burrus) 6 Findings after Researching 1,000 Self-Help Articles.(IntelligentChange) Clean Meat: a Bold Prediction May Finally Come True. (Forbes) Language Alters Our Experience of Time. (The Conversation) Pump Action: the Heart-stopping History of Cardiac Surgery.(NewStatesman) This Emotional Intelligence Test Was So Accurate It Was Creepy.(FastCompany) Neuroscientists Figure out How to Wipe Individual Memories from the Brain of a Snail. (DT) The ABCs and Ds of Whether to Get Prostate Cancer Screening. (NYT) The Top 21 Natural Testosterone Booster Ingredients. (Visual) What Duck Sex Reveals about Human Nature. (Spiegel) The Impossible Mathematics of the Real World. (Nautilus) What is Space? (Nautilus) The Shah of Iran: An Interview with Mohammad Reza Pahlevi.(NewRepublic) From Russia with Blood. (BuzzFeed) Here's the Easiest Way to Eat More Vegetables. (Time) Crash Override: Malware that Took Down a Power Grid May Have Been a Test Run. (Networkworld) Hume's Theory of Ideas. (AutodidactPhilosophy) A Crack in an Antarctic Ice Shelf is 8 Miles from Creating an Iceberg the Size of Delaware. (NYTimes) Athens, Sparta and Rome: The Ancient Election. (TLS) Why are Artists Now Able to Create "Photo Realistic" Paintings and Pencil Drawing that Totally Blow Classic Painters, like Rembrandt and Da Vinci, out of the Water in Terms of Detail and Realism? (Quora)

Market-Related Links

Hedge Fund Launches Back on the Rise. (Institutional Investor) The Median Price of New Homes Hits a Record High. (WSJ) Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos May Be Single-handedly Killing Inflation.(CNBC) Technological Change and the Future of Financial Intermediation.(JohnKay) China to Promote Wealth Management Investment in Commodities - Regulator. (Reuters) Debunking the Fintech is Failing' Nonsense. (TheFinancialBrand) Should Your Company Be Profitable? (AVC) On Currency. (JPKoning) This is How Big Oil Will Die. (Shift) How Vertical Farming Reinvents Agriculture. (BBC) Quantopian's Army of Analysts is Defining the Future of Investment.(Inc) The Stars are Starting to Align for Gold Bulls. (BusinessInsider) Is a $2.7 Million Lunch with Warren Buffett a Bargain? (Bloomberg) 4 Indications that Make It Painfully Obvious Trumpcare is in Deep Trouble. (Fool) North Korea behind WannaCry Ransomware Attack, British Intelligence Claims. (BGR) Mobile Data Consumption Will Soon Surpass Fixed Broadband.(Axios) How Behavioral Finance Can Help Investors in Today's Market.(ValueWalk) JPMorgan's Massive Guide to Machine Learning Jobs in Finance.(EFinancialCareers) Amazon, Whole Foods, and the Future of the (Old) New Economy.(HBR) IBM's Watson Supercomputer is Getting into Wall Street Stock-picking. (CNBC)

Let me know what you think. Thanks. Click Here To Join My Mailing List

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 17th, 2017

The new normal.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Putin Implies the U.S. is ‘Stupid’, Talks about NATO ‘Falling Apart’. (ValueWalk)
• Anti-Semitic Incidents Rose a Whopping 86% in the First 3 Months of 2017. (Apple)
• Beyond Alt: Understanding the New Far Right. (NYMag)
• Malcolm Gladwell on Why We Shouldn’t Value Speed Over Power. (Heleo)
• Learning to Distinguish “Fear” from “Fear of Fear” is Key to Leading a Happy Life. (Quartz)

Trading Links:

• Puerto Rico Votes in Favor of Statehood. (TheHill)
• Trump Tweets and the Efficient Market Hypothesis. (SSRN)
• Tony Robbins: What I Learned from the World's Greatest Investors. (Time)
• The World's Highest-Paid Musicians of 2016 - Pg.1. (Forbes)
• For Aramco Insiders, Prince’s $2 Trillion IPO Valuation Doesn’t Add Up. (WSJ)

JIM ROGERS: "The Worst Crash In Our Lifetime Is Coming"

Jim Rogers knows a thing or two about markets.  He is a successful investor and businessman (and was a co-founder of the Quantum Funds).

He recently talked about his expectations for the next couple of years.  It's worth watching.

 

Jim predicts a crash within the next year (due to the bubble on many stocks popping). 

There are many things that could be the catalyst for the fall, but he predicts it will be not only the worst in your lifetime, but also in his lifetime (and he's pretty old!).

 

Blodget: Can anybody rescue us?

Rogers: They will try. What’s going to happen is they’re going to raise interest rates some more. Then when things start going really bad, people are going to call and say, "You must save me. It’s Western civilization. It’s going to collapse." And the Fed, who is made up of bureaucrats and politicians, will say, "Well, we better do something." And they’ll try, but it won’t work. It’ll cause some rallies, but it won’t work this time.

Blodget: And we are in a situation where Western civilization already seems to be possibly collapsing, even with the market going up all the time. Often when you do have a financial calamity, you get huge turmoil in the political system. What happens politically if that happens?

Rogers: Well, that’s why I moved to Asia. My children speak Mandarin because of what’s coming.

You’re going to see governments fail. You’re going to see countries fail, this time around. Iceland failed last time. Other countries fail. You’re going to see more of that.

You’re going to see parties disappear. You’re going to see institutions that have been around for a long time -- Lehman Brothers had been around over 150 years. Gone. Not even a memory for most people. You’re going to see a lot more of that next around, whether it’s museums or hospitals or universities or financial firms.

 

Scary stuff.

What do you think is going to happen?

If our current actions are leading us towards a crash, what will stop it?

How will Algo trading help or hurt the outcome for the masses (and the few)?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 9th, 2017

The Comey situation is nuanced ... No, confusing.

It doesn't matter which side you're on, there's stuff to support and stuff to oppose.

Nonetheless, the result is no longer in contention.  Trump won the first battle. Comey isn't the Director of the FBI. 

Comey may still be trying to win the war.  Last week, he testified in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

My favorite quote of the night was: ""The statue of justice has a blindfold on because you're not supposed to be peeking out to see if your patron is pleased with what you're doing."

Watching the selective belief in Comey's statements is interesting. Sometimes it seems that Liberals only hear how Trump mishandled Flynn ... while Conservatives only hear the lack of investigation into Trump's Russia ties. 

At the end of the day, Trump felt finally vindicated from the left's accusations.

So, is the situation nuanced ... or just plain confusing?

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Cavaliers Still Send Paychecks to Warriors Coach Mike Brown. (ESPN)
• Dalai Lama: Behind Our Anxiety, the Fear of Being Unneeded. (New York Times)
• Bill Gates Has Seven Predictions for the Future. (Futurism)
• SNL Just Came up with a Hilarious Version of Alexa Designed for Senior Citizens. (TechCrunch)
• TCU’s First Little Genius Graduates with Physics Degree at 14 Years Old. (DallasNews)

Trading Links:

• Former Mozilla CEO Raises $35M in under 30 Seconds for His Browser Startup Brave. (TechCrunch)
• The Hunger Bonds – A Modern Dilemma (Project-Syndicate)
• Meet the 9 Hedge Fund Managers Who Made the Most Money in 2016. (BusinessInsider)
• Dying Malls in the US Should Take Note of How China is Approaching Retail. (BI)
• Why Amazon is Eating the World. (TechCrunch)