Capitalogix

Wealth Formula - Howard Getson and Buck Joffrey Talk The Future of Trading

I'm excited ... because I've been at Joe Polish's Genius Network Annual Event this weekend.

Genius Network is a business group that also serves as an advisory board, counselor's office, and idea factory. 

It brings brilliant minds and industry transformers together in a forum focused on innovation, creative disruption, and possibility. 

Peer groups, like this, help you set (and raise) standards. 

They help bring new capabilities, but also new possibilities, new found energies and a reconnection to your purpose, mission, and values. 

This is a great place to meet extraordinary people. 

Buck Joffrey is one of them. He is a doctor, an international best selling author, member of Genius Network, and host of WealthFormula (which is a podcast where he educates professionals on how to build lasting wealth). 

 

Buck recently interviewed me for WealthFormula.  We talked about old-world trading versus new-world trading ... and where I think A.I and Machine Learning have the best opportunities to add alpha and help investors make and keep more money.

You can listen to it below (or subscribe to his podcast on iTunes, Android, or RSS).

WFP-077-Howard_Getson

 

How Much Debt Does Your Country Have Per Person? An Exercise in Understanding Large Numbers

Debt often enables governments to run smoothly. But sometimes you can have too much of a good thing.

The US recently passed $20 trillion in debt for the first time.  To put that in perspective, I am going to reference an article I wrote in 2011 ... when the debt was approaching $15 trillion. 

Here is what the $15 trillion U.S. debt looked like when it is piled up in stacks of $100 bills.

To put it in context, do you see the tiny tractor trailer?  Squint, and you can see the barely visible human in front of it. 

via WTFNOWAY

The United States has a net wealth of approximately $300 trillion.  Nonetheless, the statistics are sobering. 

Take a look at the list of country debt as a percentage of GDP.   Apparently, Japan has embraced its inner borrower. 

OECD via World Economic Forum 

According to the World Economic Forum, if the Japanese wanted to pay off their national debt, each individual would owe approximately $90,345. For comparison, US citizens would owe $61,539 a person. 

It's also worth noting that lower debt levels don't translate to safety on a global scale. Yugoslavia had very low government debt until its breakup. 

If you want to see an updated, interactive version of the U.S. Debt Clock, just click here.  It is worth spending a little time to watch the pace the numbers turn.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 15th, 2017

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

 

Lighter Links:

• Radical Candor Will Help Managers Balance Accountability and Empathy. (SmallBizTrends)
• Pretending to Be Batman Helps Kids Stay on Task. (Digest)
• The Secrets of Disneyland: a Company Vet Explains How the Magic Happens. (FastCompany)
• What Actually Happens When You Pull a Muscle? (Popular Science)
• Now that Anyone Can Hack BiologyShould We Be Afraid? (SingularityHub)

Trading Links:

• How to Destroy Our Economy. (Forbes)
• Bulldozers Can Show You Where the Economy's Going before the Official Data Do. (Bloomberg)
• JPMORGAN: Here's What Could Cause the next Financial Crisis. (BusinessInsider)
• Goldman Sachs to Explore Starting Bitcoin Trading Venture. (Bloomberg)
• AI Will Eliminate 1.8M Jobs but Create 2.3M by 2020, Claims Gartner. (TechRepublic)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 8th, 2017

 Old people and their joints ... it's becoming an issue. 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Culture Doesn't Just Beat Strategy, It Must Be the Strategy. (Inc)
• Google Reveals the Top Things People Want to Find out How To' Do. (TechCrunch)
• Pain Leads to Empathy and Self-preservation: Should We Make Robots Feel' It? (Aeon)
• Gartner's Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Adds 5G and Deep Learning. (Forbes)
• Hostile Terrain: Tank Traps, Fake Towns & Secret Tunnels of the Korean Borderlands. (99PercentInvisible)

Trading Links:

• Seventy-Eight Billion Reasons Why Bitcoin Is the New Gold. (Globe&Mail)
• Amazon Wants to Open a $5 Billion Second HQ in North America. (CNN)
• Has Disruption from E-commerce Run Its Course? (Latest)
• Who Vladimir Putin Thinks Will Rule the World. (CNN)
• Employees at the World's Largest Hedge Fund Use iPads to Rate Each Other's Performance in Real-Time – See How It Works. (Insider)

Gartner's 2017 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Identifies Innovations Worth Monitoring

There's a lot of "hype" these days.  Social media and tools like Kickstarter would have you believe that every new idea is the "next big new thing".

In contrast, Gartner's Hype Cycle Report is a considered analysis of market excitement, maturity, and the benefit of various technologies.  It aggregates data and distills more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct, contextually understandable, snapshot of where various emerging technologies sit on the hype cycle.

Understanding this hype cycle framework enables you to ask important questions like "How will these technologies impact my business?" and  "Which technologies can I trust to stay relevant in 5 years?"

 

What's a "Hype Cycle"?

 

As technology advances, it is human-nature to get excited about the possibilities we imagine ... and then to get disappointed when those expectations aren't met. 

At its core, the Hype Cycle tells us where in the product's timeline we are, and how long it will take the technology to hit maturity. 

At this point in time, Machine Learning/Deep Learning and Connected Homes are at the peak of their hype cycles ... Meanwhile, Augmented Reality and Blockchain have matured past the hype phase (with Self-Driving Cars following close behind).  

This year, according to Gartner, there are three overarching "mega-trends" to watch. 

• AI Everywhere shows the transition towards a ubiquitous AI experience, from self-driving cars, to machine learning, and to smart robots.  Consider the impact on traffic/accidents with the adoption of autonomous vehicles, or the ability of machine learning to process more data faster. 
• Transparently Immersive Experiences shows our transition towards human-centric contextual and fluid technological experiences.  - like Connected Homes or Virtual Reality. Consider the impact of Augmented Reality on advertisements or gamification. 
• Digital Platforms shows the transition of emergent platforms into adoption. Platforms like Blockchain, IoT,  and Quantum Computing. Consider the effects of bitcoin and other blockchain initiatives, as well as the opportunity for new business models centered around these platforms.

 

Here is the chart. You can click the image to see it larger. 

 

via Gartner

For comparison, here is the chart from last year; and you can check out my article on 2015's hype cycle here.

via Gartner

The hype cycle gives us an idea of which of these technologies will likely survive the market hype and have a potential to become a part of our daily life. 

Here are the five regions of Gartner's Hype Cycle framework:

1. Innovation Trigger (potential technology breakthrough kicks off),
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations (Success stories through early publicity),
3. Trough of Disillusionment (waning interest),
4. Slope of Enlightenment (2nd & 3rd generation products appear), and
5. Plateau of Productivity (Mainstream adoption starts). 

  

Which technologies do you think are over-hyped ... and which ones might survive the hype?

I find this stuff fascinating.  Consider some of the interesting technologies just starting their hype cycle:

• Human Augmentation has the potential to enhance our bodies and minds using electrical currents, chips, or exoskeletons, but also raises ethical and legal questions. 
• Quantum Computing is still in its infancy, but could theoretically solve certain problems far faster than classical computers. 
• Smart Dust opens up the possibility of monitoring essentially everything by creating a vast network of minuscule sensors that can detect various inputs. 
• 4D Printing would theoretically allow us to print objects that reshape or self-assemble over time. 

We live in amazing times! 

Onwards. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 25th, 2017

Interesting week in the Twit-o-Sphere as Steph Curry and Donald Trump feud, and Ted Cruz is "caught" liking porn on Twitter. 

Who would have guessed Twitter would play such a strong a role in today's political climate?

I believe that everyone deserves the right to my opinion (as much as anyone) ... Still, sometimes silence is the best policy.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• This Company Wants to Grow A.I. by Using Blockchain. (CNBC)
• New Neuroscience Reveals 4 Rituals that Will Make You Happy. (TheLadders)
• Google Wants You to Know What Data It Has on You. (Fortune)
• Marriage vs. the Single Life: Who Has It Better? (PsychologyToday)
• Hackers Could Program Sex Robots to Kill. (NYPost)

Trading Links:

• One-Tenth of Global GDP is Now Held in Offshore Tax Havens. (ZeroHedge)
• Goldman Sachs Thinks Fintech Has As Much Potential as Trading. (Quartz)
• Cowboys Are World's Most Valuable Team at $4.8 Billion. (AP News)
• Social Finance: Where Wealth and Values Meet. (Forbes)
• Obama Goes from White House to Wall Street in Less Than One Year. (Bloomberg)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - September 17th, 2017

Hillary is now on a book tour for her new book "What Happened" ... I haven't read it, but Politifact has. 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Hackers Have Already Started to Weaponize Artificial Intelligence. (Gizmodo)
• Your Future Sex Robot Could Be Hacked and Programmed to Murder You. (BGR)
• You Can Actually Be Allergic to Exercise. (Popular Science)
• Multivitamins a Waste of Money and Just Create 'Very Expensive Urine'. (TheGuardian)
• iPhone X Impressions: 'Striking' Display and 'Sensational-Looking' Design Make High Price Worth It. (MacRumors)

Trading Links:

• In China's Hinterlands, Workers Mine Bitcoin for a Digital Fortune. (New York Times)
• Janet Yellen Has Reached Breakfast-With-The-President's-Daughter Levels of Job Insecurity. (DealBreaker)
• Finance: How It Made Civilization Possible. (CFAInstitute)
• The Blockchain Will Do to Banks and Law Firms What the Internet Did to Media. (HBR)
• 16 Quotes from Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's Right-Hand Man. (BInsider)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 20th, 2017

Change is the only constant.

 

  

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• AI Beats the World's Best Gamers after Just Two Weeks of Learning. (NewAtlas)
• Russia-linked Hackers Targeted Hotel Guests across Europe: Security Firm. (Reuters)
• One Year after Rio: What's Left behind after the Flame Goes Out. (ESPN)
• Humans and Robots are on the Cusp of a Sexual Intimacy We May Never Reverse. (Quartz)
• Elon Musk Just Shared His 4-Step Plan for Mars - Colonists Should Be "Prepared to Die". (ScienceAlert)

 

Trading Links:

• Ray Dalio Urges Investors to Hedge Against Possible North Korea War. (FN)
• There Has Never, Ever, Been this Many Trades Betting on VIX. (ZH)
• Amazon Could Start Selling Event Tickets in the U.S. (TechCrunch)
• South Korea Introduces World's First Robot Tax. (ZeroHedge)
• The Number of Cash Payments Dipped 11 Per Cent Last Year - But It's Still the Most Used Payment Method. (CityAM)

Rubik's Cubes ... More than just a game.

One of my unique abilities is pattern matching.

Even if I'm not an expert in a field, based on context and patterns, I quickly see the big picture – and recognize the bottlenecks and leverage points that impact transformative results.

Perhaps that's why Rubik's Cubes fascinate me. 

A scrambled cube presents an insurmountable challenge to newbies.  It almost seems that there are infinite possibilities ... and most lead towards chaos and failure. In reality, a Rubik's cube is pretty easy to solve if you understand a few simple algorithms (and match the positions of a couple key blocks in relation to the decisions you need to make next). 

As more people learn to solve standard cubes, the game evolves.  There is new generation of "Cubers" that attempt to find new creative situations to add difficulty, solve it faster than the next person, or try crazy variations of the cube that barely resembles the original. 

 

If you're trying to learn how to solve a basic cube, here's a great resource. 

After you've learned the basic patterns, and solved a few puzzles,  you can up the ante.

Here are some examples of bigger cubes with more variables and different shapes.

 

via hananujiya

Ultimately, it is that base pattern recognition and simple solving skills (applied in the right order) that sets the stage.

It doesn't matter where you start.  As long as you continue to make progress, the result is inevitable.

Who Can You Trust? Ranking Your News Sources

Fake news this ... phony sources that ...

It is harder than ever to know what to trust.

"Noise Reduction" is important in this volatile geo-political climate.

The chart, below,  lists the least and most trusted news sources.

 

via RJI

As someone who reads a lot, this was interesting.

As a side note,  I was a little surprised to see the "Internet" on the list as source itself.  Darwin would be somewhat comforted to see that people don't trust everything they see on the internet. 

The following chart is a bit outdated (it's from 2014), but it's a good study with diverse leanings.  It presents the trust levels of various news sources by ideological group.   

 

via Journalism

Which of your news sources do you follow? Were they as trusted as you expected?

Another question worth asking yourself is "Am I getting an idea of what the other side is thinking?"  In trading, I always want to understand what the other side sees.

Finally, let me know if there are resources you think I should look at.  

You are either growing or dying.