Last week, ESPN televised a blow-out of Ohio's Bishop Sycamore high school football program by Florida's IMG Academy. The score was 58-0. But that has little to do with this story.
The supposed school in Colombus, Ohio, is not recognized by the state's athletic association … and the department of education doesn't list a school with that name. Despite that, they somehow scammed ESPN into scheduling the game.
Here are some of the troubling data-points.
The head coach of the team, Roy Johnson, has an active warrant out for his arrest
They falsely claimed they had multiple Division 1 college prospects
ESPN couldn't verify any of the players in their scouting databases.
The director of Bishop Sycamore claims the school is not a scam, and his son is in the program. On the other hand, the “school” currently doesn't even have a working website.
It's impressive that in this era of information access, a school could defraud the nation, not once, but twice.
I even heard that Cam Newton got picked up by Bishop Sycamore after getting dropped from the Patriots.
Not really … but this is an interesting story – and reflects how easy it is for “fake” things and get real coverage.
Recently, however, it seems that we are increasingly presented with issues divided into polar opposite points of view, with little to no tolerance for disagreement.
Nonetheless, not all topics need to be debated or negotiated.
Sometimes, a fact is a fact.
Hopefully, this video won't step on any toes - but if you're a "flat earther," I wouldn't watch.
Here's a clip from Behind The Curve (a documentary on the flat earth society) that I think perfectly shows confirmation bias.
Start with the evidence and then form a conclusion. Doing that in reverse doesn't tend to work out as well.
As a polite reminder, if a conspiracy relies on millions of people (as well as different countries and organizations) to all commit to the disinformation campaign ... it's not likely true.
As Occam's razor states, the simplest explanation is often the correct one.
While the calculation is based on five factors, the primary conditions indicate a big disagreement about market conditions.
For example, two of the conditions are that a substantial number of stocks have to be at yearly highs, while a substantial number of stocks have to be at new annual lows. Ultimately, it is hard for those two conditions to be met in a short period of time unless there's uncertainty in the market. Moreover, after a rally, uncertainty is often a precursor to a decline.
In addition, technically (for the pattern to be complete), a second sighting of the five elements must occur within 36 days. Logically, lingering uncertainty is a momentum killer.
Should I Be Worried?
This week, Cumberland Advisors' shared the following from Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations for UBS Financial Services at the New York Stock Exchange.
Art had this to say:
“I had told Carl Quintanilla on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street in an interview about 10:20 that I thought the chatroom bears were turning a bit more aggressive. Several were trying to point out that we had had two Hindenburg Omens in a row. In case you had forgotten, a Hindenburg Omen is rather arcane indicator that takes as a measurement the ratio or relationship between the new 52-week highs and the new 52-week lows. It is quite unusual to have two days back-to-back with new Hindenburg Omens.
Now, you have to be a little bit careful about the Hindenburg Omen because, over the last 35 or 40 years, we haven’t had a market ‘crash’ without the presence of the Hindenburg Omen, and that is what chatroom bears were pushing. You have to remember the other part of that, which is while there has always been a Hindenburg Omen before a crash, there has not been a crash after every Hindenburg Omen. To use a rather poor analogy, it is almost like saying, we have never had a flood without rain. But, then again, every time it rains, it doesn’t mean it is going to flood.
So, it was, nevertheless, an effective tool among the chatroom types just to make people nervous. I am not sure how many have bought into the Hindenburg aspect, but it was one of those ‘Wait a minute – should I be aggressive on the buy-side or should I wait and hold back here?’ I think it had some of that effect.” - Art Cashin
From my perspective, while this pattern may have correctly predicted every big stock market swoon of the past two decades (including the October 2008 decline), not every Hindenburg Omen has been followed by a crash. Resorting to a geometry analogy: All rectangles are squares, but not all squares are rectangles.
Times are strange - and there's reason to be wary of the markets, but indicators like this are a reason to be cautious, not a basis for trading decisions.
Each year I look forward to Camp Kotok, or as I like to call it Economists in Nature. It's basically 5 days of canoeing, fishing, and dining with economists, wealth managers, traders, investors and more.
One of few chances for people from these backgrounds to come together and talk about the world, big trends, investing, economics, politics, and more ... in an open and safe forum. The event goes by the Chatham House Rule - which basically means you can share the information you receive, but not who said it.
This year we talked about everything from China, digital currencies, the pandemic, and the state of markets.
Interestingly, for all the takeaways I could focus on, the main takeaway was uncertainty.
For all the intelligent and "in-the-know" people in the room, very few people had clear opinions of what was going to happen. There were too many variables at play, and while they posited a lot of potential paths, it feels like the general census was we're at a crossroads with many potential futures in front of us.
Despite the general uncertainty in the room, it wasn't fear-laden. The general mood was optimistic, and for the most part, everyone sees paths toward economic success post-COVID.
With that said, when and what "post-COVID" means is another issue.
One of the other key discussions that came up often was the new generation of workers and their changing relationship with work. It's plain to see the rate of quitting is higher, that wages are rising, and it's getting hard to fill minimum wage jobs. It's hard to get employees back in an office space, and many are willing to take pay cuts or switch to other companies to stay at home.
The long-term impact on our economy (and our culture) is yet to be seen.
At a mastermind meeting last week, Landon Downs from 1Qbit spoke on the state of technology. Landon and I agree on a lot of things - and one of those things he emphasized heavily. AI is in a period of massive innovation. It's a renaissance, or springtime, or whatever euphemism you want to use. But it's only springtime for AI if you can take advantage of it.
Adding to that, he explained that a current constraint might become a big short-term limitation to how widespread AI can grow. The constraint is that there is a global chip shortage (and it could be an issue until 2023).
The chip shortage is probably a bigger problem than you imagine because microchips are in everything from refrigerators to toothbrushes - not just high-tech computers. This has the potential to be a massive disruptor, especially in the tech industry.
Building and running smart AI systems takes a lot of computing power, and as more competitors enter the scene, not only will the cost to play increase, but so will the potential you get turned away at the door.
To a certain extent, the AI arms race becomes a chip arms race.
As I thought about the chip shortage, and its impact on the next few years, it also made me brainstorm what else I thought would be the most influential shifts that would influence me and my business (and potentially the world).
Here's my top 5, and I'd love to hear yours.
Compute Power is going to increase, and the ability to brute force problems will create new possibilities. Quantum computing will become more important and likely available for commercial use.
New and better AI platforms will transition AI from a tool for specialists to a commodity for everyday people - it won't just be Artificial Intelligence, it will be Amplified Intelligence (helping people make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually measure and improve performance).
Blockchain and authenticated provenance are going to become more important as the world becomes increasingly digital. Trust and transparency will be important as indelible logs are needed for finance, medical, armies, etc.
IoT will become more pervasive, enabling near digital omniscience as everything becomes a sensor that transmits data up the chain.
Mass customization will become the norm instead of simple mass production as hardware, data, and AI continues to improve products, medicine, custom supplements, and just about everything else.
The mood was pretty optimistic and bullish. As you might expect, there was a growing interest in crypto and blockchain … and a growing sense of “us versus them” directed at China and Russia. We live in interesting times!
If you want to download my presentation slides, you can do that here.
Happiness is a complex concept comprised of positive emotions, lack of negative emotions, comfort, freedom, wealth, and more.
Regardless of how hard it is to quantify ... humans strive for it.
Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting.
Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report does a good job with its annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses). Click the image below to view the Report.
In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health.
As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there was a significant increase in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed. Moreover, the decline in mental health was higher in groups that already had mental health problems - women, young people, and poorer people.
What's interesting about this is the resilience and bounce-back seen within the data. Considering the amount of disruption to households this past year, it's remarkable how stable the averages for countries have been.
Ultimately, globally, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health.
Despite the changes in emotions in 2020, overall life satisfaction rebounded quickly after March of 2020.
While there was a decrease in overall happiness, the relative balance in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or set point of happiness. I'm always impressed by what people can get used to, and how you can find pockets of joy in even the hardest times ... or how people with everything they could ever ask for can still feel profound unhappiness.
It's oddly beautiful and a great reminder that happiness comes from within. Obviously, our environment and circumstances play a part. It's easier to be content with a roof over your head and a stable job. But, after a certain point, it's on us to create our realities.
Last week, we talked about the future of AI and the potential for AI to start taking over some jobs (freeing humans to raise their chins and do something better and more meaningful).
One of the key factors I talked about was "mindset." For example, consider whether you’re in a scarcity or abundance mindset? If you are in a scarcity mindset, that probably means you see life as a finite pie with only so many slices ... and if someone else gets a big slice (or something new interrupts you getting your slice), you worry that you might not get what you deserve. On the other hand, an abundance mindset recognizes that there’s plenty out there for everybody, and if there’s no more pie, we can always create new pies (or something better).
I have a picture in my conference room that says energy might be the most important thing to measure.
Yes, it means what it sounds like - but, for us, it also means more.
We use A.I. to trade. So, measuring performance is important. But so are all sorts of production, efficiency, and effectiveness measures.
There are hundreds of important metrics we track day-to-day. Energy impacts many of them (and absolutely affects your ability to respond to change).
Energy affects how you feel, what you do, and what you make things mean. Consequently, energy is an effective way to measure your values too.
We’ve seen numerous inflection points in the past with the introduction of electricity, and then the assembly line and the industrial revolution, with the internet, and now with AI.
There’s always disruption, and there’s always pain, but your mindset and energy can radically change what that means to you ... and what you choose to do.
AI is coming. Disruption is coming! It's no longer simply possible; it's not even just probable; it is inevitable. With that said, what you make it mean and how you respond is up to you.
In a prior post, I shared a mindset scorecard I created at Genius Network.
Normally, Genius Network is private, and these recordings are for internal use only; but I asked permission to share my impromptu session with you.
Check it out. In the first 5 minutes, I introduce the scorecard concept. For the next 10 minutes, you'll get an extra look at the resulting group discussion.
Think of each comparison as a spectrum. They're not necessarily "one-or-the-other," but they can help identify where you are on the scale of "what to avoid" versus "what you want."
Blaming <-----> Encouraging
Insistent <-----> Inspirational
Fearful <-----> Abundant
Steadfast <-----> Curious
Clogging <-----> Cleansing
Resentful <-----> Grateful
Zero-Sum <-----> Relational
Small-Minded <-----> Visionary
These words mean something to me, but they may need tooling to work for you. Changing the names, the order of the comparisons, the number of comparisons, etc., can have a profound effect on the usefulness of this scorecard to you.
I encourage you to think about how you could use this scorecard and how you can bring attention to those people and actions that best embody the traits that are important to you or your business.
Identifying the words you want to embody and the person you want to be can help make you responsive to change and a better version of yourself.
In an interview with Tom Bilyeu (co-founder of Quest Nutrition), he addresses the issue of managing Millennials – and why they seem lazy, entitled, and unfocused.
via Inside Quest
Sinek points to four characteristics that help "create" this issue:
Parenting,
Technology,
Impatience, and
Environment.
Sinek suggests that this generation is a product of failed parenting strategies ... being told they're special without effort, being told they can have anything they want, and being handed trophies for showing up.
Next, add technology to the mix.
Before millennials, interaction happened in person much more frequently ... meaningful trust-based relationships were built with time and effort, and when you were at dinner with friends or watching a movie, you were living in the moment, not distracted by your phone.
For added irritation, next add impatience (which is a byproduct of instant gratification).
Why wait for amusement when it's a text away? You've got Netflix making video rental a thing of the past, Tinder making dating as easy as "swiping right" and Amazon making it so you don’t have to check out when you go to a store.
Is it any wonder that these kids have short attention spans? Now imagine the Gen Z kids forced into quarantine where their only companionship was online?
Now put those kids in an environment where they're forced to realize you can't rush success, and you can't force meaningful relationships. Where they have to put in the effort and stay focused for extended periods of time
It's a story that often doesn't have a happy ending.
I thought it would be fun to ask one of them what they thought about it ... So I asked my son, Zachary. Here are his thoughts.
I was born in 1993. When I was in elementary school, I was already using a computer almost daily, and a lot of my education and entertainment was computer-centric.
As such, I am a textbook “Millennial.”
I use Snapchat too much, I often relax by playing games on my phone, and I am easily distracted. Because of that, I found this interview with Simon Sinek particularly interesting.
I’m lucky. My dad forced me to work hard and valued my efforts more than my results. So, while I'm constantly reminded that I'm lucky I'm not working 80-hour days (and being forced to get a haircut every week), I do feel as if I'm a step ahead of many of my peers.
I still find myself falling into a lot of the "traps" Sinek describes – I'm reliant on social media; I'm frustrated when my effort doesn't transfer into immediate impact; and I struggle to not take my phone out whenever there's not another stimulus keeping me occupied.
That being said, I do think the issue is bigger than millennials. It's not just our generation that takes their phones out at meetings and ignores who they're with for someone on their phone. If you pay attention, I'll bet you'll notice that you do it as well. To me, it seems more like a trapping of the era than of a generation.
The difference, I think, is that millennials spent their formative years in this environment. This does affect the way we see and interact with the world. But you can watch each generation chastise the youth for the same things as they get older.
"This new generation has no respect! They're too reliant on technology, and don't know how to do anything themselves! Lazy and entitled!
I'm positive I can find similar rhetoric levied against Generation X, Boomers, and more. There's always been resistance to new technologies and the belief that the new generation takes what they're blessed with for granted. I even catch myself judging Gen Z for the same things I remember being judged for as a teenager.
Will we ever measure up to your expectations? Perhaps not ... because our generations approach the world the world so differently.
Nonetheless, we are still capable of greatness. We are still driven to pursue growth, to create new things, and to provide value to our communities. It's just that we are playing a different game and keeping score a little differently. 2020 brought a lot of that to the forefront of the conversation.
Understanding that, in and of itself, can help to close the gap. As we mature and become the main working force, as we become managers and leaders, I think you'll find that a lot of our failings were the symptoms of youth – and have dissipated with age.
There's plenty more I want to say, but I don't want to go on for too long. I'm happy to have a more in-depth conversation offline. You can e-mail me at [email protected] with any thoughts on the subject, any questions, or just to say hello.
That's B.S. ... I mean Bishop Sycamore
Last week, ESPN televised a blow-out of Ohio's Bishop Sycamore high school football program by Florida's IMG Academy. The score was 58-0. But that has little to do with this story.
Why do you care, and why am I writing about this? Because the story is crazy – and Bishop Sycamore is now under investigation for fraud.
The supposed school in Colombus, Ohio, is not recognized by the state's athletic association … and the department of education doesn't list a school with that name. Despite that, they somehow scammed ESPN into scheduling the game.
Here are some of the troubling data-points.
The director of Bishop Sycamore claims the school is not a scam, and his son is in the program. On the other hand, the “school” currently doesn't even have a working website.
It's impressive that in this era of information access, a school could defraud the nation, not once, but twice.
I even heard that Cam Newton got picked up by Bishop Sycamore after getting dropped from the Patriots.
Not really … but this is an interesting story – and reflects how easy it is for “fake” things and get real coverage.
Posted at 04:12 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Games, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Sports, Television, Trading | Permalink | Comments (0)
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