Jim Simons is a mathematician and cryptographer who realized that the complex math he used to break codes could help explain financial patterns – and he made billions with those ideas in his notoriously secretive hedge fund firm, Renaissance Technologies.
Though he stepped down in 2021, I still think his legacy is fascinating, not just for its impacts on the Hedge Fund industry - but on trading as a whole.
He is famous not only for the duration of his success and the size of his results … but also for the way he made his money (with much lower volatility and risk than his peers and competitors).
His background is impressive. Simons taught at Harvard and MIT and worked with the NSA. Here is a video where he shares some thoughts in a 2015 TED talk interview. It's worth a watch.
Despite advanced math still being a mystery to many, we rely on it more than ever as the foundation of many exponential technologies.
The Heart of AI is Still in Humans
Simons built a team of mathematicians whose motivation was doing exciting mathematics and science (rather than hired guns who could be lured away by money or pure trading quants, biased by the industry).
This hits on something important.
Humans are still important ... and companies that pursue exponential thinking and exponential technologies still have to champion integrity, culture, and purpose.
Better Math is a Competitive Advantage - So is More and Better Data
We stayed ahead of the pack by finding other approaches and shorter-term approaches to some extent … but the real thing was to gather a tremendous amount of data
– Jim Simons
On top of his intelligent hiring and novel approach to trading, Jim Simons recognized that an impressive data pipeline - and the technological infrastructure to digest and analyze that data was a moat to competitors.
It is hard to have an edge if you use the same process and the same data as your competitors.
As the flywheels of commerce spin faster, edges will emerge and decay faster. Finding a solution is only a step in an ongoing process.
Robust, reliable, and repeatable innovation at scale is a meaningful competitive advantage. That implies that idea factories will become as important (if not more so) than factories that produce material products. Likewise, innovation funnels will become more important than sales funnels.
The world changes at the speed of thought ... and as technology continues to improve ... even faster.
2023 was defined by two major themes, the first being geopolitical strife, and the second being the proliferation of artificial intelligence.
What geopolitical strife, you ask? Seemingly everywhere you looked (from China and Taiwan to Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East, or even the happenings in Britain and the U.S.) ... This was an interesting year.
Many of the trends we've seen in 2023 will have aftershocks in 2024. Still, the only thing constant is change ... and it will be interesting to see what changes. I think we've seen increased caution as a result of the last few years, but I think people are now getting used to the new normal.
Do you expect 2024 to be better?
Time will tell.
Don't forget the Trump trials and that it is an election year ... or that crypto is making a comeback – and AI will only accelerate.
Overall, markets improved, which is unsurprising after the year we had in 2022. With Energy seeing such a massive boom last year, it recessed a little, but real estate and technology both saw strong gains.
Here is a more global look at return by asset class.
Japan saw significant growth, partly driven by China’s Real Estate issues.
Oil, commodities, and Chinese equities all lost, but that loss in oil and commodities could be driven by China’s woes.
In 2022, I said it was unlikely that the trends would continue into 2023, which wasn’t much of a prediction ...
On one level, I try not to think about or predict markets, because I know better. On the other hand, it is an election year, and my opinion matters as a proxy for what people like me think or feel in an election year. So, with that in mind, I predict that we see a brief market correction blamed on various geopolitical instabilities and partisan weaknesses, followed by a long and steady push higher as we approach the November elections.
What do you expect for 2024?
Do you think the continued investment into generative AI will impact these trends?
What's happening in the Middle East with the Israel-Hamas war is incredibly complicated and polarizing. On top of the long history, partisan interpretations, chronic conflict, and acute suffering, you're seeing propaganda being used at a scale beyond what we've seen before.
Technology is a big driver of misinformation - and what is happening now provides an early warning of what's to come in future wars and political contests.
While the topic of Israel and Hamas is beyond the purview of this blog/newsletter - the impact of war on markets is not.
My heart is with all impacted, and I'm never rooting for war or the death of innocent civilians.
With that said, war seems to be a fact of life.
The most powerful countries in the world spend billions of dollars on defense a year.
In light of this, VisualCapitalist put together a chart identifying the top 25 defense companies in the world. Many of these have seen massive spikes in price in the past few months. I was surprised by how many of the companies I didn't recognize.
The U.S. unsurprisingly tops the list, with Lockheed and RTX (formerly Raytheon) taking the top two spots.
While we don't usually think of some of these companies as defense contractors, Airbus produces multiple drones and transports, Rolls Royce is a supplier of aircraft and naval engines, and Honeywell is actually involved not just in aerospace - but actual space.
Understanding where and how companies generate revenue (as well as comprehending the relevant competitive landscapes and cooperative ecosystems) are crucial activities regardless of investment strategy.
I believe it's easier to predict human nature than it is to predict technology. There is a reason that new technology often flows into porn, gambling, and military earlier than other areas ... the reason is that it's so easy to monetize there. We know opportunity often rises from pain and conflict - so it's still valuable to understand these concepts and figures.
I've been an entrepreneur ever since I can remember. I sold tadpoles and frogs in elementary school, colored sand terrariums in middle school, stereos and sound systems in high school and college, and I started a database development company in business school.
But it wasn't until the early 90s that I made being an entrepreneur my career.
I quickly realized I needed peer groups and advisors to help take my businesses to the next level.
Verne Harnish was one of the first people I found. I joined the Young Entrepreneur's Organization (but so many of us have lost our "Y" that it's now just called the Entrepreneurs' Organization.) Among many entrepreneurial endeavors, Verne founded EO, Gazelles (a global executive education and coaching company), and Birthing of Giants (now called the Entrepreneurial Masters Program at MIT).
I was recently at a party with him in Arizona. While there, I asked him, "What's changed about entrepreneurship over the last 30 years?". Here is a short video with his response.
I was happy to hear that the answer was "Nothing". While the hot industries, technologies, and players have changed, many of the winning principles are timeless.
This is a helpful reminder that, even when innovating, we should focus on what doesn't change - rather than what does.
I shared an article titled “Who’s The Most Innovative?” a few weeks ago. That post alluded to the power of patents. Here, we'll discuss the importance and value of intellectual property in more detail.
Historically, profitable companies often built or sold some tangible product. Consequently, the Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, landowners, etc.
However, over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, the leaders are in tech, intellectual property, and other intangible assets.
As business becomes more digital, you will see an increasing shift towards creating and protecting intellectual property.
When most people hear that, they probably think about patents. So, let's start there.
A patent is property ... meaning it is an asset. Technically, it is a legal right granted by the government to an inventor, giving them the exclusive right to make, use, sell, and import an invention for a limited period (typically 20 years from the filing date) in exchange for public disclosure of the invention. To obtain a patent, an inventor must apply and prove that their invention is new, non-obvious, and useful. In addition, the application process involves disclosing the details of the invention so that others can learn from it.
Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors ... but they’re more than that. They help you create partnerships and an ecosystem. Ecosystems & communities have proven to be the difference between legacy businesses and flash-in-the-pans. It’s the difference between having a product and having a platform.
Patents add dimensionality and revenue streams.
Take Tesla. They’re not just in the business of making cars or pushing the proliferation of electronic vehicles. They’re creating a suite of capabilities that are patentable and licensable. In the future, they can license the self-driving capability (because why would someone build it when they can license it?). They can license the ability to update a car’s operating system over the Internet (or by their Starlink Satellite offering). They can also grow into a clean energy business. I’m sure there are other strategic byproducts I’m missing – but you get the idea.
As they develop these tools and create intellectual property, these same inventions can also become a weighing and measuring tool to find out where people are interested, and identify where people are spending time, money, and energy. Here is a 60-second video that explains the concept.
Patents make the intangible, tangible.
They provide a concrete form to innovative concepts, enabling businesses to protect and capitalize on their intellectual property.
This mindset also creates the infrastructure for change and anticipating future needs, and ensures companies remain adaptable and positioned for long-term sustained growth.
Getting Started
When I help people understand how to move forward with AI, the first thing I ask them is “What’s your why?”. I ask that because as soon as you lose sight of why you built your business in the first place, you’re lost.
After you understand yourself and your business, you have to understand the industry-wide ecosystems, and where the low-hanging fruit are.
If you know the low-hanging fruit, your problem statement, your value proposition, and your “why” you’re in a great place to move forward.
You can use that understanding to stack some easy wins and create bandwidth for larger endeavors.
The effort-to-impact ratio is a great way to think of how you get started. As you begin thinking about staking ground, you don’t want to do the flashy and cost-intensive stuff first. You want to keep a low profile and start to create walls that will help you in the future.
You can use trade secrets, instead of patents, when you don't want to disclose what you do and how you do it. A trade secret is any non-public information that provides a business with a competitive edge and is subject to reasonable steps taken by the business to keep it secret. The protection of trade secrets does not require registration or disclosure to the public. The information remains protected as long as it is kept secret and continues to provide a competitive advantage.
You can also use your intellectual property as part of an attraction strategy to find potential partners or collaborators – creating what Dan Sullivan calls the “Freezone Frontier”.
Final Thoughts
In essence, patents are not just legal safeguards—they are strategic instruments that can shape the future trajectory of businesses. By embracing a holistic approach that combines legal protection, market intelligence, and strategic foresight, companies can harness the full potential of patents, unlocking new dimensions of success in an ever-evolving business landscape.
Nine years in front of entertainment devices - another 10.5 years spent working. You get the idea.
If you have goals you want to accomplish, aspirational travel, and lifestyle plans - this really puts the idea of finding and living your passion in perspective.
Do you have the time to waste it?
VisualCapitalist put together a chart projecting longevity based on 2020 mortality rates.
I turned 60 this July, so I only have 20 years left, according to this calculator. I expect more!
There are some interesting statistical facts in this; for example, an average American baby boy can expect to live until 74 ... but if that boy turns 21, his life expectancy jumps to over 75.
While these numbers seem pretty high, there are two things to consider. First, COVID heavily reduced these numbers because mortality rates went up. That likely won't continue (though it will likely continue to affect your insurance premiums and pension benefits).
Also, remember that these numbers are based on 2020 averages, which likely differ from you (specifically considering your race, income, location, etc.). These numbers also don't take into account expected medical and technology advances, etc.
Finally, I think Purpose is one of the most important catalysts of longevity. People often die when they retire ... not because they're done working, but because they're done striving.
This year, Joe Polish interviewed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at the conference. To make it didn't seem like a political event, they didn't tell people he was coming until after the event was sold out.
Kennedy stayed to have dinner with a few members later that night. At the dinner, he answered questions from the attendees.
RFK is an interesting guy ... he's a newly declared Independent who was a lifelong Democrat. Democrats think he's a conservative. Conservatives think he's a liberal.
It is a little confusing. And most people probably don't know what to think.
I'll be frank. He did much better than I expected. He's undoubtedly a politician. Answers were prudent; he gave nuanced opinions to avoid stepping on too many toes. He was clearly knowledgeable about foreign policy and history. He was sharp. And it is easy to argue that he is more coherent than some of our other options.
I'm still making my own decisions about who I'll vote for in the coming election. But I hope there's a space in modern politics for comment sense and bipartisanship - something I think RFK offers.
At this point in history, can decent ideas and a centrist approach from an Independent gain any real traction?
I voted for Ross Perot, but if you remember, he got 0 electoral college votes, despite getting approximately 20% of America to vote for him. Could this be another situation like that?
Politics has always been divisive, and the internet and technology have made it more so. On the one hand, it's very hard for a moderate opinion to gain traction. On the other hand, both parties are largely sick of their options.
Do you think he has a chance?
On a lighter note, the dinner was hosted at Tom Mello's house, who has bought replicas of K.I.T.T., Herbie, and the Delorean from Back To The Future.
I couldn't help myself. I had to make this video.
Buckle-Up ... Instead of heading Back to the Future, we are headed for an election year.
Honestly, the fact that we’re at the top of the food chain is pretty miraculous.
We’re slow, we’re weak, and we’re famously bad at understanding large numbers and exponential growth.
Our brains are hardwired to think locally and linearly.
It’s a monumental task for us to fathom exponential growth … let alone its implications.
Think how many companies have failed due to that inability … RadioShack didn’t foresee a future where shopping was done online. Kodak didn’t think digital cameras would replace good ol’ film. Blockbuster dismissed a future where people would want movies in their mailboxes because they were anchored to the belief that “part of the joy is seeing all your options!” They didn’t even make it long enough to see “Netflix and Chill” become a thing.
Innovation is a reminder that you can’t be medium-obsessed. Kodak’s goal was to preserve memories. It wasn’t to sell film. Blockbuster’s goal wasn’t to get people in their stores; it was to get movies in homes.
Henry Ford famously said: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Steve Jobs was famous for spending all his time with customers but never asking them what they wanted.
Two of our greatest innovators realized something that many never do. Being conscientious of your consumers doesn’t necessarily mean listening to them. It means thinking about and anticipating their wants and future needs.
Tech and AI are creating tectonic forces throughout industry and the world. It is time to embrace and leverage what that makes possible. History has many prior examples of Creative Destruction (and what gets left in the dust).
I tend to focus on the themes that are impacting industry and the world ... but when I started this blog back in 2008, I was much more focused on investment themes ... why were markets doing what they were doing, both on the micro and the macro scale?
Based on data from Morgan Stanley, visualcapitalist just put together a chart that looks at the key investment themes from each decade since 1950. It's a great retrospective.
In the 1950s, we saw a post-war boom in European stocks, followed by a shift into "blue chip stocks."
When I grew up, my grandparents advocated for blue chip stocks, and they held their investments until the day they died ...
By the 1990s, when I started paying attention to markets, tech startups were taking over, and stocks weren't primarily held for years and years. Instead, they were getting calculated in weeks and months; people were trying to capitalize on a "quick trend."
Now, a quick trend can last under a day, and the average holding time for a stock (based on trading volume) is calculated in seconds.
Where will investments go in the '20s? We're currently seeing massive investment in tech, specifically the platforms that enable burgeoning tech, like NVIDIA. We also see a disconnect in U.S. equity markets, with 43% of global investment, but 26% of the world's economic output.
I think that, plus the growth in emerging markets, will result in a massive shift. Time will tell.
A Look At Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies
Jim Simons is a mathematician and cryptographer who realized that the complex math he used to break codes could help explain financial patterns – and he made billions with those ideas in his notoriously secretive hedge fund firm, Renaissance Technologies.
Though he stepped down in 2021, I still think his legacy is fascinating, not just for its impacts on the Hedge Fund industry - but on trading as a whole.
He is famous not only for the duration of his success and the size of his results … but also for the way he made his money (with much lower volatility and risk than his peers and competitors).
His background is impressive. Simons taught at Harvard and MIT and worked with the NSA. Here is a video where he shares some thoughts in a 2015 TED talk interview. It's worth a watch.
TED via YouTube
Despite advanced math still being a mystery to many, we rely on it more than ever as the foundation of many exponential technologies.
The Heart of AI is Still in Humans
Simons built a team of mathematicians whose motivation was doing exciting mathematics and science (rather than hired guns who could be lured away by money or pure trading quants, biased by the industry).
This hits on something important.
Humans are still important ... and companies that pursue exponential thinking and exponential technologies still have to champion integrity, culture, and purpose.
Better Math is a Competitive Advantage - So is More and Better Data
On top of his intelligent hiring and novel approach to trading, Jim Simons recognized that an impressive data pipeline - and the technological infrastructure to digest and analyze that data was a moat to competitors.
It is hard to have an edge if you use the same process and the same data as your competitors.
As the flywheels of commerce spin faster, edges will emerge and decay faster. Finding a solution is only a step in an ongoing process.
Robust, reliable, and repeatable innovation at scale is a meaningful competitive advantage. That implies that idea factories will become as important (if not more so) than factories that produce material products. Likewise, innovation funnels will become more important than sales funnels.
The world changes at the speed of thought ... and as technology continues to improve ... even faster.
Onwards!
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