It's unsurprising that Google and social media top the list, but it is interesting to see OpenAI becoming the 17th most visited site last month - with 1.8 billion visits - despite being very new to the scene in comparison to its competitors.
Easy to forget, but also unsurprising is the prevalence of adult websites on this list. One of my most popular articles ever was titled "How Long Does It Take To Get To 50 Million Users?" in it, the takeaway was that Pornhub did it 19 days - faster than anyone else ... up until ChatGPT. Part of the popularity of that article is because Pornhub has very in-depth statistics about its yearly use.
The World Government Summit put together a helpful interactive website where you can test your knowledge on the trajectory of key statistical indicators for the development of society over the past decade. It is more challenging than I imagined. Here is the text from their opening screen.
Can we estimate how much the world has changed in a decade? Or do our own experiences impact the perception of progress? This work challenges the assumptions we make about how key statistical indicators regarding Health, the Environment, or Education evolve through the years.
You can click on the image below to test your knowledge of key issues shaping the world (like oil dependency, pollution, literacy, economic freedom, etc.) by answering some questions at "The Shape of Change."
Capitalogix started in my home. The first employee sat at a tiny desk behind me. Their job was to exit the trades I entered. This was an early attempt to avoid the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes that humans bring to the business of trading.
We started to grow ... and somehow got to 23 people working in my home. It literally overtook my office, dining room, and the entire upstairs. Neighbors noticed (and expressed their displeasure).
Looking back, it seems crazy (and my wife seems Saintly). But somehow, at the time, it felt natural.
Incubating the company in my home, and growing it the way we did, resulted in a closeness (a feeling much like family) that pays dividends, even today.
There is a concept in business expressed by the phrase "measure twice and cut once." It's much easier to do something the right way from the beginning rather than trying to fix it after you mess it up.
It saves time and creates a better end result.
Beginning with the end in mind is powerful. I often spend what looks like "too much" time imagining the bigger future. What will things look like when we are ten times bigger? Who will we serve? What dangers will keep me up at night? What opportunities will we be trying to attract or capture? What strengths will give us confidence? Who will we be collaborating with ... and about what? It helps build a roadmap that makes it easier to understand whether particular activities are aligned with our future (or just something we are doing now).
I prefer to optimize on the longer term rather than the shorter term. That isn't always possible or practical, but that is my preference when it is.
Pace is important - and a focus on "what's the best next step" is an important driver at Capitalogix, but sometimes in order to go fast, you have to go slow. You may miss out on something, but the ultimate payoff is often worth it.
It's a good lesson for personal growth as well. There is no right timeline. No one size fits all. Take your time. Find your path.
I was at an event last week where (unsurprisingly) we focused heavily on AI. Conversations ranged from use cases for generative AI (and the ethics of AI image creators) to the long-term effects of AI and its adoption.
Before I could chime in, the conversation had gone to the various comparisons from past generations. When electricity was harnessed, articles claimed that it would never catch on, it would hurt productivity, and what of the artisans it would potentially put out of business if it were to gain traction.
When the radio or TV was released, the older generation was sure it would lead to the death of productivity, have horrible ramifications, and ultimately lead to the next generation's failure.
People resist change. We're wired to avoid harm more than to seek pleasure. The reason is that, evolutionarily, you have to survive to have fun.
On the other hand, my grandmother used to say: "It's easy to get used to nice things."
Here's a transcript of some of my response to the discussion:
With AI, getting from "Zero-to-One" was a surprisingly long and difficult process. Meaning, getting AI tools and capabilities to the point where normal people felt called to use it because they believed it would be useful or necessary was a long and winding road. But now that everybody thinks it's useful, AI use will no longer be "special". Instead, it will become part of the playing field. And because of that, deciding to use AI is no longer a strategy. It's now table stakes.
But that creates a potential problem and distraction. Why? Because, for most of us, our unique ability is not based on our ability to use ChatGPT or some other AI tool of the day. As more people focus on what a particular tool can do, they risk losing sight of what really matters for their real business.
Right now, ChatGPT is hot! But, if you go back to the beginning of the Internet, MySpace or Netscape (or some other tools that were first and big) aren't necessarily the things that caught on and became standards.
I'm not saying that OpenAI and ChatGPT aren't important. But what I believe is more important is that we passed a turning point where, all of a sudden, tons of people started to use something new. That means there will be an increase of focus, resources, and activity concentrated on getting to next in that space.
You don't have to predict the technology; it is often easier and better to predict human nature instead. We're going to find opportunities and challenges we wouldn't because of the concentration of energy, focus, and effort. Consequently, AI, business, and life will evolve.
For most of us, what that means is that over the next five years, our success will not be tied to how well we use a tool that exists today, but rather on how we develop our capabilities to leverage tools like that to grow our business.
But your success will not be determined by how well you learn to use ChatGPT. It will be determined by how well you envision your future and recognize opportunities to use tools to start making progress toward the things you really want and to become more and more of who you really are. Right?
So, think about your long-term bigger future? Pick a time 5, 10, or even 20 years from now. What does your desired bigger future look like? Can you create a vivid vision where you describe in detail what you'd like to happen in your personal, professional, and business life? Once you've done that, then try to imagine what a likely midpoint might look like? And then, using that as a directional compass, try to imagine what you can do in this coming year that aligns your actions with the path you've chosen?
Ultimately, as soon as you start finding ways to use emerging technologies in a way that excites you, the fear and gloom fade.
The best way to break through a wall isn't with a wide net, but rather with a sharp blow. You should be decisive and focused.
I remember being an entrepreneur in the late 90s (during the DotCom Bubble). And I remember watching people start to emulate Steve Jobs ... wearing black turtlenecks and talking about which internet company would be the "next big thing" at social gatherings. Looking back, an early sign that a crash was coming was that seemingly everybody had an opinion on what was going to be hot, and too many of them were overly confident.
The point is that almost nobody talks about the Internet that way anymore ... in part because the Internet is now part of the fabric of society. At this point, it would be weird if somebody didn't use the Internet. And you don't really even have to think about how to use the Internet anymore because there's a WHO to do almost all those HOWs.
The same is going to be true for AI. Like with any technology, it will suffer from all the same hype-cycle blues ... inflated expectations and then disillusionment. But, when we come out the other side, AI will be better for it ... just like the Internet, the silver screen, or even radio stations.
Earlier, I mentioned how long it took to get from "Zero-to-One" with AI. But we're still at like three" or a "five" on a 100-point scale. Meaning, you are at the beginning of one of the biggest and most asymptotic curves that you can imagine. And you're not late … you're early! Even the fact that you're thinking about stuff like this now means that you are massively ahead.
The trick isn't to figure out how to use AI or some AI tool. The trick is to keep the main thing the main thing.
Investing resources into your company is one thing. Realize that there are 1000s of these tools out there, and many more coming. You don't have to build something yourself. It is often faster and better to acquire a tool than it is to spend money on developing and building it.
Think of the Medici family. They invested in people, which in turn triggered the Renaissance. A key to moving forward in the Age of AI will be to invest in the right people who seek to create the kind of world you want to see. Think of this as a strategic investment into creators and entrepreneurs with a vision who are on a path that aligns with yours.
As you get better and better at doing that, you'll see increasing opportunities to use tools to engage people to collaborate with and create joint ventures. Ultimately, you will collaborate with technology where it's your thought partner and then your business partner. We are entering exciting times where AI, automation, and innovation will make extraordinary things possible for people looking for opportunities to do extraordinary things.
It gets a little old talking about ChatGPT so often ... but it's rightfully taking the world by storm, and the innovations, improvements, and use cases keep coming.
This week, I'm keeping it simple.
VisualCapitalist put together a chart that helps contextualize how well ChatGPT tests on several popular placement tests.
It also shows the comparison between versions 3.5 and 4.
ChatGPT 4 improvements include plugins, access to the internet, and the ability to analyze visual inputs.
Interestingly, there were a couple of places where version 4 didn't improve ... Regardless, it is already outperforming the average human in these scenarios.
Obviously, the ability to perform well on a test isn't a direct analog to intelligence - especially general intelligence. However, it's a sign that these tools can become important partners and assets in your business. Expect that it will take developing custom systems to truly transform your business, but there are a lot of easy wins you can stack by exploring what's out there already.
The takeaway is that you're missing out if you aren't experimenting.
Industry is changing fast. In the 1900s, the world's titans mainly produced tangible goods (or the infrastructure for them). The turn of the century brought an increasing return on intangible assets like data, software, and even brand value ... hence the rise of the influencer.
As technology increasingly changes business, jobs, and the world, intellectual property becomes an increasingly important way to set yourself apart and make your business more valuable.
While America is leading the charge in A.I., we're falling behind in creating and protecting intellectual property.
Patents can help protect your business, but they also do much more. I.P. creates inroads for partnerships with other businesses, and they can also be a moat that makes it more difficult for others to enter your space. On a small scale, this is a standard business strategy. What happens when the scale increases?
The number of patents we're seeing created is a testament to the pace of innovation in the world, but it should also be a warning to protect your innovations. Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge - so be careful with your trade secrets.
As I experiment with social media in preparation for the launch of my book "Compounding Insights: Turning Thoughts Into Things in the Age of AI," we've started producing short videos where employees ask me questions ... some dumb and some smart.
One we just released asked the question, "Does astrology work?" Here is my response.
The first answer is ... at least not the way many believers wish it would. Nonetheless, many get value from astrology because it helps them think about themselves and others from a different perspective while providing comfort and structure.
It's like a nightlight in the dark. It doesn't make you any safer, but it feels like it.
Unfortunately, like many things ... some people take it too far.
Trading is more accessible than ever before. We've gone from scrums of traders in trading pits to armchair experts investing in real estate, cryptocurrencies, options, and more from the comfort of their couches in their underwear.
With accessibility often comes misuse. And, in this specific case ... astrology.
"Mercury Is In Retrograde ... Should I Sell My Stocks?"
A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts. - Burt Malkiel, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”
My son brought to my attention an iPhone app - Bull and Moon; "Find stocks whose stars align with yours."
After you create your "astrological investor profile," their "proprietary financial astrology algorithm recommends an optimal portfolio of six stocks and shows your compatibility score with thousands more."
The picks were pedestrian: Oracle, Hasbro, American International Group, Microsoft, Yum! Brands, and FedEx.
The logic and commentary were entertaining. The choices were based on "similarities in business decisions," "shared outlooks on humanity," and "strong mutual success metrics."
Here is an excerpt:
Zach can usually let strong FedEx Corporation lead the relationship, but at the same time, Zach will invest many times over. This relationship will be full of success, understanding on many levels, and a lot of fun.
It's no secret that I've been a proponent of the proliferation and adoption of AI. I've been the CEO of AI companies since the early 90s, but it was the early 2000s when I realized what the future had in store.
A few years ago, in anticipation of where we are today, I started participating in discussions about the need for governance, ethical guidelines, and response frameworks for AI (and other exponential technologies).
Last week, I said that we shouldn't slow down the progress of generative AI ... and I stand by that, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't be working hastily to provide bumper rails to keep AI in check.
There are countless ethical concerns we should be talking about:
Bias and Discrimination - AI systems are only as objective as the data they are trained on. If the data is biased, the AI system will also be biased. Not only does that create discrimination, but it also leaves systems more susceptible.
Privacy and Data Protection - AI systems are capable of collecting vast amounts of personal data, and if this data is misused or mishandled, it could have serious consequences for individuals' privacy and security. The security of these systems needs to be managed, but also where and how they get their data.
Accountability, Explainability, and Transparency - As AI systems become increasingly complex and autonomous, it can be difficult to determine who is responsible when something goes wrong, not to mention the difficulty in understanding how public-facing systems arrive at their decisions. Explainability becomes more important for generative AI models as they're used to interface with anyone and everyone.
Human Agency and Control - When AI systems become more sophisticated and autonomous, there is fear about their autonomy ... what amount of human control is necessary, and how do we prevent "malevolent" AI? Within human agency and control, we have two sub-topics. First, is job displacement ... do we prevent AI from taking certain jobs as one potential way to preserve jobs and the economy, or do we look at other options like universal basic income. We also have to ask where international governance comes in, and how we ensure that ethical standards are upheld to prevent misuse or abuse of the technology by bad actors.
Safety and Reliability - Ensuring the safety and reliability of AI systems is important, particularly in areas such as transportation and healthcare where the consequences of errors can be severe. Setting standards of performance is important, especially considering the outsized response when an AI system does commit an "error". Think about how many car crashes are caused by human error and negligence... and then think about the media coverage when a self-driving car causes one. If we want AI to be adopted and trusted, it's going to need to be held to much higher standards.
These are all real and present concerns that we should be aware of. However, it's not as simple as creating increasingly tight chains to limit AI. We have to be judicious in our applications of regulation and oversight. We intrinsically know the dangers of overregulation - of limiting freedoms. Not only will it stifle creativity and output, but it will only encourage bad actors to go further beyond what the law-abiding creators can do.
If you want to see one potential AI risk management framework, here's a proposition by the National Institute of Standards and Technology - it's called AI RMF 1.0. It's a nice jump-off point for you to think about internal controls and preparation for impending regulation. To be one step more explicit ... if you are a business owner or a tech creator, you should be getting a better handle on your own internal controls, as well as anticipating external influence.
In conclusion, there is a clear need for AI ethics to ensure that this transformative technology is used in a responsible and ethical manner. There are many issues we need to address as AI becomes more ubiquitous and powerful. That's not an excuse to slow down, because slowing down only lets others get ahead. If you're only scared of AI, you're not paying enough attention. You should be excited.
Since my last name is Getson, I often get "Jetson" at restaurants. As the CEO of a tech company focused on innovative technologies, it somehow feels fitting.
Despite only airing for one season (from 1962-1963), The Jetsons remains a cultural phenomenon. It supposedly takes place in 2062, but in the story, the family's patriarch (George Jetson) was born on July 31, 2022. Not too long ago.
Obviously, this is a whimsical representation of the future - spurred on by fears of the Soviet Union and the space race. But it captured the imagination of multiple generations of kids. Flying cars, talking dogs, robot maids, and food printing ... what's not to love?
I don't intend to dissect the show about what they got right or wrong, but I do want to briefly examine what they imagined based on where we are today.
For example, while flying cars aren't ubiquitous yet (like in the Jetsons), we already have driverless cars. It's likely that by 2062, driverless cars will be pervasive, even if flying cars aren't. But, frankly, who knows? That is still possible.
Meanwhile, both George and Jane work very few hours a week due to the increase in technology. While that's a future we can still envision, despite massive technological improvements, we've chosen to increase productivity (instead of working less and keeping output at 1960 levels). Even with the expected growth of AI, I still believe that humans will choose to pursue purposeful work.
The Jetsons also underemphasize the wireless nature of today's world. George still has to go into the office, and while they have video phones, it's still a piece of hardware connected to a wall, instead of mobile and wireless. 2062 is far enough away that holographic displays are still a very real possibility.
Likewise, while we don't yet have complex robot maids (like Rosie), we already have Roombas... and both AI and Robotics are improving exponentially.
Meanwhile, we are in the process of creating cheap and sustainable food printing and drone delivery services ... which makes the Jetsons look oddly prescient.
And, remember, there are still 40 years for us to continue to make progress. So, while I think it's doubtful cities will look like the spaceports portrayed in the cartoon ... I suspect that you'll be impressed by how much further we are along than even the Jetsons imagined.
Not only is the rate of innovation increasing, but so is the rate at which that rate increases. It's exponential.
Pornhub via Capitalogix Blog
Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 4th, 2023
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
Lighter Links:
Trading Links:
Posted at 09:49 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Just for Fun, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Religion, Science, Sports, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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