Capitalogix

The Age of AI: How Far Is Too Far?

Let's take a break from talking about the Coronavirus to talk about something else that will affect the global population. 

Of course, it's the pace of innovation and the effects of AI. I've been on the record for years saying things like

• AI will transform the planet much like electricity did
• Data will be more valuable than oil 
• And, the only thing more impressive than our population growth is our technology growth 
• Or, from the precautionary side, Artificial intelligence isn't a substitute for lack of the real thing

It can be difficult to have a nuanced discussion around AI online. There's a lot of PopSci around it, people conflate a very diverse range of algorithms and intentions into the general "AI", and realistically when you get too in-depth into what algorithms are best for what problems, most people lose interest. 

That's why I'm personally a proponent of any discussions around AI. Awareness is important, and if more people can understand the basics, then some subset of them will become better educated... rinse and repeat. 

Robert Downey Jr. and YouTube partnered for an 8-part docuseries on the Age of AI. I've only watched one episode, but that episode did a decent job of addressing the highest-level issues with AI. 

 

via YouTube Originals

I won't go through the whole video with you - because  you're quarantined and I think it's worth watching, but there are a couple of points I wanted to re-emphasize. 

Your Data Is Becoming More Important, Not Less Important

"Everyone's concerned about identity theft. Meanwhile, they're giving all their data for free on the internet. I'm what I like. I'm what I don't like. I'm where I go, I'm who I know. I'm what I search. I'm my thumbprint. I am my data" - will.i.am

My son, Zach, has ultimately given up on privacy - his argument is that everyone's information is out there anyway. Even my eldest son, Ben, who is a cybersecurity expert, has semi-resigned himself to his data being out there. He takes many precautionary measures but recognizes that he's not truly anonymous. 

In the video, Will.I.Am is getting an authentic reproduction of his face, mannerisms, and voice - they even got the pimple he had during the day of filming. In doing so, he specifically asks for the voice to be a bit robotic. He does this "for his mom" but in reality, it's to make clear - this is a robot, not me. It's avoiding the Uncanny Valley. 

We're at an intersection where it's going to become harder to decide what's real and what's fake. With deepfake video and audio, protecting your personal brand and identity becomes difficult, and simultaneously more important. 

The Path Forward

The road to AI supremacy is long and fraught with booby traps, potential missteps, and ethical issues. Questions like "how far is too far?" will have to be answered, and countries will likely strive to unite around shared rules of ethical AI. 

If there's anything that makes me confident about our ability to successfully travel that road, it's looking at humanity's ability to adapt. The reality is, we've been working symbiotically with "machines" since the very beginning, but our definition of the machine simply continues to improve. It's fractal, and each time the technology we're adopting gets bigger, so does the eventual positive effect on day to day life. 

AI adoption is a big step, but the positive effect it can have on our lives is astronomical. 

Onwards!

Here's to Rebirth and Spring Cleaning

Happy Holidays!  I hope you had a great weekend.

For Christians, today is Easter Sunday - the holiday celebrating the Resurrection. 

For Jews, it's still  Passover - the holiday recounting the Exodus from Egypt. 

The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, a Passover Seder, and last meal Jesus ate before his crucifixion.  

For both, it's a holy and family-centric time. A reminder to appreciate what we have, and how we stand on the shoulders of our ancestors. 

One of the memorable phrases from Exodus is when Moses says "Let my people go!"  For generations, people assumed he was talking to the Pharoh about his people's freedom. After a week of eating clogging matzoh, matzoh balls, and even fried matzoh ... for many Jews "Let my people go" takes on a different meaning.

For Jews, a notable part of the ritual Seder dinner is naming each of the 10 plagues that rained over Egypt and saying "never again".

Perhaps, this year, COVID-19 gets added the list? 

Yet, just like the Jews making it through slavery, the plagues, and 40 years wandering through the wilderness and desert before entering the Promised Land ... we too will make it through this. 

With that said, some of what happened is good.  Mine your experience for the things you want to keep doing (or continue not doing) once things go back to "normal".  In addition, some of those close to me continue to remind me that being sheltered-in-place is a great excuse to do both a physical and mental spring cleaning. 

Hope you had a great weekend. 

Onwards!

What Can My Dogs Teach Us About Trading?

I wrote this back in 2008. With minor updates, it seems relevant again.

Some dogs run fast; other dogs do tricks … my 100-pound lab, Duke's best talent was his ability to remain immobile in almost any situation (some call it "laziness" … I prefer "calm" or being "even-tempered").

At the other end of the spectrum are our two small dogs, Boo and Jasper. Boo, our 20-pound mix between a Beagle and a Boston terrier. Let's just say that he has a higher metabolism than Duke. 

When Boo hears a noise, he lets out an involuntary, barely audible, sound.  His body becomes rigid and his head cocks.  He becomes alert and carefully tunes his ears to their most sensitive setting, seeking any information that will help identify the "danger." He's now primed for the next intrusion.

Usually, there are no other disturbances to follow, and the noise is cataloged and soon forgotten. His alertness level slowly subsides over the next 10-15 minutes or so.  He'll go back to napping, a little more fitfully this time … and just a little bit on edge.

Things get a little more interesting when another noise surfaces shortly after the first one.  What could once be dismissed now must be treated as a threat – and just to be safe, a threat of the highest order.  Now the appropriate response is a series of barks, nervous glances, pacing, rushing off in the direction of the noise to investigate, and a barrage of barks meant to sound more menacing than the source of the noise.  Who or what is it? How much harm can they cause? How grave is the threat?

Jasper, our high-anxiety mutt, is never off alert. He doesn't know what's a threat, and what's not, so he's always creating threats out of nothing and riling up our other dogs. 

Duke is a different story.  Nothing upsets Duke more than Boo or Jasper getting on high alert.  The same noise that prompted Jasper and Boo to become alert does nothing to Duke.  However, the first time that they make noise,  Duke becomes alert. The second time they make noise, Duke starts vocalizing; and the third time, all 4 of our dogs start yapping. Once they start yapping, then the neighbor's dogs start yapping, and suddenly our neighborhood is a cacophony of dog barks.

The same thing happens in the market with people.

In the market, it is the second noise - and subsequent noises - that creates the equivalent of the Homeland Security "Red Alert." Once an elevated level of alertness has been established, it takes a long period of relative calm for it to subside.  And when on "Red Alert" … any additional noises (for example, the responses of the other market participants) - big or small - will highlight, magnify, and further validate the issue.

But, like in the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf," even legitimate threats are ignored after too many false alarms (or prolonged periods of constant alert).  So, bad news about the economy isn't as likely to get people excited after the past few weeks.

As people (or bots) become "used" to today's new normal, It'll be interesting to see what sprouts up. The longer away from the initial episode, the more real the effect can be attributed. 

The unfortunate reality is that the Boo and Jasper style "overreaction" to a crisis can exacerbate the long-term effects of the crisis. To balance that, on the macro level, a stronger pandemic response has been shown to increase economic recovery.

This has been the theme from the beginning. Don't personally panic, but respond aggressively on the city, state, and national level. 

Food for thought. 

Building Your New Normal

Last week, I introduced the idea of a new normal. 

As a small business owner, in the midst of this pandemic, I'm not thinking about what's necessary to continue doing what I was doing yesterday. I'm focused on what I can do to prepare for tomorrow. Things won't go back to the way they were, but they will go back to normal. Only, it will be a new normal. It's a good lesson in being attached to a result, not a medium for a result. 

The "new normal" is a topic that has been coming up in a lot of different places, because of the situation in which we all find ourselves. 

These Are Not Unprecedented Times

I've heard a lot of people use the phrase "these are unprecedented times" but they're not. Ignoring how many different industry-disrupting era's we've had (think the Dot Com Bubble), we've also had numerous pandemics, and we're better prepared to handle them today than at any other time in history.  

Here is a short video from Simon Sinek that I thought was relevant, well-done, and inspiring. I encourage you to watch it.

 

via Simon Sinek

What Comes Next?

"I'm not worried about what I do, I'm worried about why I do it." - Simon Sinek

After some time, things will go back to "normal." Your goal for today should be to sow the seeds to today that prepare you for that day. I'll backtrack a step and acknowledge, if you're struggling to survive, survival comes first. Regardless, you need to make sure you're asking yourself the right questions.

When you ask better questions, you get better answers. 

What will you need when it's back to business as usual? How can you help others better themselves through this period? Who can you help?

If the theme for right now is building a new normal, one of my life's themes is the belief in moonshots and exponential thinking. 

Your response to this pandemic should be the same as your response to disruptive innovation. 

You should be attracted to a result, not a medium, and paying attention to how you can capitalize on the wave. 

Blockbuster, RadioShack, Kodak, all went out of business due to shortsighted myopia in the face of change. 

Opportunity or Chaos ... You get to decide!

Onward!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 29th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How the Pandemic Will End. (The Atlantic)
• A New Way to Explain Explanation. (TED)
• 20 New Technology Trends We Will See in the 2020s. (ScienceFocus)
• Smile? Results from the 2020 World Happiness Report are In. (New York Times)
• Warren Buffett's Brilliant 25/5 Rule Was Fake. Here's What He Really Said about Achieving Success. (Inc)

 

Trading Links:

• Disneyland and Disney World Will Remain Closed Indefinitely. (CNet)
• The Dow Just Had Its Best Week since 1938. It's Time to Go Shopping for Beaten-Up Stocks.(Barrons)
• Dollar Falls during Coronavirus Pandemic, Biggest Weekly Drop since 2009. (FoxBusiness)
• Understanding the Economic Shock of Coronavirus. (HBR)
• Paul Tudor Jones Says Stocks Could Retest Lows as Virus Peaks but Will Be Higher in 3 to 5 Months.(HedgeCo)

4 Secrets To Self-Isolation Success With Astronaut Chris Hadfield

People are beginning to struggle with self-isolation as more states order people to stay home or at least attempt to restrict interaction. 

Perhaps no one on earth has a better perspective on isolation than Chris Hadfield, who stayed in space for 166 days. 

Here's his 2-minute video on staying sane. 

via Chris Hadfield 

His first takeaway is to know the actual risk.  We've seen a lot of amplified paranoia.

There are real risks with COVID-19 and real steps you need to take. Panicking is not one of those steps. 

For extra reading, here are more tips on surviving quarantine from:

• A Prisoner who has spent 27 years in Solitary Confinement
• More astronauts including Scott Kelly and Peggy Whitson

How are you holding up?

Turning Trials Into Triumphs

Many of our best decisions, timeliest course corrections, or most significant innovations take place after a seemingly disastrous occurrence. That's why many psychologists and self-help gurus encourage people to focus on the hidden gift that many of these experiences provide.

It's there if you look for it. That painful event becomes the catalyst for either something new, a better way, or a level up. 

Of course, that's not the case for everyone or every event ... It takes the right mindset and the right actions to turn a trial into a triumph. 

As we experience massive real-world and market turmoil, I think back to 2008 and how a prior incarnation of algorithms fared against it (spoiler alert: not nearly as well as this time).  They say the things that don't kill you make you stronger. Here's my trial into triumph story about that. 

 

 

Too many people become a victim of their circumstances instead of choosing to be the master of their destiny. 

Life's harder for people that live a life of least resistance. Doing the hard things, and making the most of bad times, makes your life not only better ... but, ultimately, easier. 

Tony Robbins calls this Threshold of Control. If you push through the fear and the struggle ... as you persevere, eventually, what was scary becomes easy. You've increased your threshold, and that's often a permanent improvement.  

Examining several instances from my past, Here is a list of the seven steps I use to transform almost any situation.

Seven Best Practices for Uncertain Times.

1. Accept Reality: We are where we are. Focus on being complete with what happened before this, and think about this as a new beginning with an even bigger future.
2. Do Something Positive: Take action and build momentum and confidence. Big wins are great. Yet, in scary times, even small items are worth noting, building upon, and stacking. Let progress build positive momentum for you.
3. Take Care of Yourself: Increase your physical activity, meditation, and massage. Take time to eat and sleep well. Many studies show decision-making suffers when you're stressed. Taking care of yourself goes a long way to making a lot of other things better.
4. Communicate More: The natural tendency is to hide or to recuperate in private. Instead, be open and receptive to help and ideas from friends, partners, or wherever it may come.
5. Creative Destruction: The old game and the old ways of thinking are over.  Shift your energy to what is working. Commit to the result you want, rather than the process.
6. Increase Your Options: It often takes a different level of thinking to solve a problem than the level of thinking that got you there in the first place. So, be open to new opportunities, new possibilities, and more ways to win.
7. Choose a Bigger Future: Instead of resigning yourself to playing small and doing with less, recognize that a clearing creates space for something even better. Choose what you want and call it into existence through your thoughts and actions.

They say everything happens for a reason. The secret is that you get to choose the reason, what it means to you, and what you're going to do about it. Choose well, and someday you could look back on this time as one of the best things that ever happened to you.

7 Best Practices For Uncertain Times

Mastery isn't measured by the number of bad things you eliminate ...
but by the number of times you eliminate calling them bad.

Many of our biggest innovations or course corrections take place after a seemingly disastrous occurrence. That's why lots of psychologists and self-help gurus encourage people to focus on the hidden gift that many of these experiences provide.

It's there if you look for it. 

Examining several instances from my past, Here is a list of the seven steps I use to transform almost any situation.

Seven Best Practices for Uncertain Times.

1. Accept Reality: We are where we are. Focus on being complete with what happened before this, and think about this as a new beginning with an even bigger future.
2. Do Something Positive: Take action and build momentum and confidence. Big wins are great. Yet, in scary times, even small items are worth noting and building upon.
3. Take Care of Yourself: Increase your physical activity, meditation, and massage. This is the time to eat and sleep well. Many studies show decision-making suffers when you're stressed. Taking care of yourself goes a long way to making a lot of other things better.
4. Communicate More: The natural tendency is to hide or to recuperate in private. Instead, be open and receptive to help and ideas from friends, partners, or wherever it comes from. (Though you may want to do it digitally with the COVID-19 scares)
5. Creative Destruction: The old game and the old ways of thinking are over.  Shift your energy to what is working.
6. Increase Your Options: It often takes a different level of thinking to solve a problem than the level of thinking that got you into the problem. So, be open to new opportunities and new possibilities.
7. Choose a Bigger Future: Instead of resigning yourself to playing small and doing with less, recognize that the clearing creates space for something even better. Choose what you want, plan it and stick to your process.

They say everything happens for a reason. The secret is that you get to choose the reason, what it means to you, and what you're going to do about it. Choose well, and someday you could look back on this time as one of the best things that ever happened to you.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading, February 23rd, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What It Means to Be Human in the Age of AI. (CNet)
• Mommy Can't Talk Right Now She's Dopamine Fasting. (TheCut)
• I Went to a High-End Psychedelic Retreat to Address My Anxiety. (Vice)
• Inside the World of High-End Coffee | Annals of Obsession | the New Yorker. (YouTube)
• Most Dietary Supplements Don't Do Anything. Why Do We Spend $35 Billion a Year on Them? (WashPost)

 

Trading Links:

• Why Cryptocurrency Markets Defy the Laws of Economics. (BU)
• Michael Bloomberg Has Taken Andrew Yang's Place as the Cryptocurrency Candidate. (TechReview)
• It Has Never Been Easier to Launch a New Brand. (Economist)
• Elon Musk's SpaceX to Raise $250 Million, Valuing It at $36 Billion. (Uk)
• Elon Musk Says He'll Put a Million People on Mars by 2050. (Futurism)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 16th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Growth Mindset vs. Fixed Mindset: Which One Do You Have? (Addicted2Success)
• 5 Soon-to-Be Trends in Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning. (Forbes)
• How Many Hours of Sleep is Enough? Age Chart Shows What You Need to Feel Rested. (Inverse)
• The Way the World Ends: Not with a Bang But a Paperclip. (Wired)
• Drinking Alcohol Every Day Can Speed up Brain Aging by One Week Per Session, According to a Study of More Than 17,000 People. (Insider)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Tesla Stock is Soaring. Madness or Visionary Investing? (APNews)
• The Decade That Completely Transformed Venture Capital. (Quartz)
• The 13 Hottest IPOs to Watch for in 2020. (Kiplinger)
• The Edison of the Slot Machines. (TheParisReview)
• Elon Musk's Mind-reading Technology Could Be about to Take a Big Leap Forward. (ZDNet)