Capitalogix

A Day of Atonement and Kintsugi

Thursday was Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement and one of the High Holy Days in the Jewish religion.

As part of the holiday, participants read a list of sins (available here), apologize for those committed, and ask for forgiveness.  Read the list ... much has changed, apparently, human nature hasn't.  

Even if you have managed to stay on the right side of the Ten Commandments and haven’t killed or stolen … you have most likely been frivolous, stubborn, hurtful, dismissive, or judgmental (I know I have …).  

To help mark the importance of the day, participants read a poem called the Unetaneh Tokef. Below is a brief excerpt that captures the spirit. 

Who will rest and who will wander, who will live in harmony and who will be harried, who will enjoy tranquillity and who will suffer, who will be impoverished and who will be enriched, who will be degraded and who will be exalted.

On one hand, you can read that and pray for Divine intervention (or perhaps favor) or you can recognize that we each have a choice about who we want to be, how we show up, and what we make things mean.  Your choices about these things have very real power to create the experience and environment you will live in during the next year.

This year, the sermon at my local synagogue added an interesting idea. It discussed the Japanese art of Kintsugi. In Kintsugi, the Japanese mend broken pottery by gilding the fractures with gold, silver, or platinum.  This treats the breaks and damage as an element that adds value and enhances the beauty of an object (preserving a part of its history) - rather than something that simply diminishes the object. 

This concept is a great reminder as we unpack the "trauma" of COVID-19 and 2020 and move on both as individuals and as a society. Our steps backward are just as much a part of our journey as our steps forward. As you heal, it is also important to remember to heal the world around you as well. In the Jewish faith, that concept is called Tikkun Olam. 

One of the themes of Yom Kippur is that you're only ever one good deed from tipping the scale towards good for yourself and others.  As you recognize and repent for your sins, it's important to appreciate the good you did (and do) as well. 

100 Days Left

There are just over 100 days before the start of 2022. Many will spend those 100 days stressing about the upcoming elections, grumbling about how 2020 sucked, and pretending it's the universe's fault they didn't accomplish what they set their mind to ... yet, 100 days is enough time to sprint, to make a change, and to end the year on a high note. 

There is plenty of time to make this your best year yet. What can you do? What will you do?

I hope you all experience growth in your mental state, your relationships, and your businesses.  

Best wishes for a great day, and an even better year!

Learning from What Pro Sports Teams Do Right

I am writing this while flying back from watching a Cincinnati Reds game in their Owner’s Box.

It was a great experience – and reminded me of how much you can learn from watching what professional sports teams do.  

Frankly, the whole business of professional sports fascinates me.  

They have to do so many things right … just to compete. This includes how they build and manage their team, cultivate their brand, support their communities and causes … as well as how well they handle the practical realities of the logistical, operational, and financial challenges they deal with constantly.  

It is more than a business.  For the most successful, it is a mission or stewardship.

Personally, I pay attention to football more than other sports.

In 2017, I lightheartedly questioned the future of the NFL as a result of bad press around concussions, crimes, and more.  I questioned it as a fan that's been a season ticket holder for as long as I can remember.  My Dad and I had season tickets to the Eagles when I was young, and to the Patriots when I was a teenager. Recently, I’ve been a Cowboys season ticket holder for over 30 years. I questioned it knowing that the NFL wasn't really at risk. To support that assessment of the NFL’s stability, consider that (despite quarantine) the league-wise Season Ticket renewal rate is at 92%… equaling a 5-yr high. 

Part of the stability stems from doing so many things right (or at least well).  Which takes us back to the point that you can learn a lot from how sports teams thrive. 

There's a lot to learn not only from the NFL's longevity, but from what it's like to be a part of a team, from the coaching, and the management side of things. 

Some of these lessons stem back to youth football ... which I’m reminded of each time I get to  watch a Dallas Cowboys practice at The Star.

Think about it, even in middle school, the coaches have a game plan. There are team practices and individual drills. They have a depth chart, which lists the first, second, and third choice to fill certain roles. In short, they focus on the fundamentals in a way that most businesses don't.

The picture, below, is of my brother's high school team way back in 1989.

 

Is it possible that most businesses are less prepared to win than an 8th-grade football team? At first, that may sound like hyperbole, but if you think about it ... it's likely true. 

Losing to an 8th-Grade Team

 

Even middle school and high school teams have a playbook for offense, defense, and special teams.  They scout opponents and create game plans.  They think about how to improve and coach the team … and each player.  They strategize and drill to perform well each game.  Meanwhile, they also work to string together wins to achieve a higher goal. 

Contrast that with many businesses.

Entrepreneurs often get myopic ... they get focused on today (or survival), and they often lose sight of the bigger picture and how all the pieces fit together. 

The amount of thought that goes into football - which is ultimately a game - is a valuable lesson for business. 

If an 8th-grade football team is equivalent to a normal business, what would happen to a business that operated similar to an NFL team?

Practice Makes Perfect

How you do one thing is how you do everything. So, they try to do everything right. 

Each time I've watched a Cowboys practice session, I've come away impressed by the amount of preparation, effort, and skill displayed.

During practice, there's a scheduled agenda. The practice is broken into chunks, and each chunk has a designed purpose and a desired intensity. There's a rhythm, even to the breaks.

Every minute is scripted. There's a long-term plan to handle the season ... but, there was also a focus on the short-term details and their current opponent.

They alternate between individual and group drills. Moreover, the drills run fast ... but for shorter time periods than you'd guess. It is bang-bang-bang – never longer than a millennial's attention span. And they move from drill to drill – working not just on plays, but the skillsets as well (where are you looking, which foot do you plant, how do you best use your hands, etc.).

They use advanced technology (including advanced player monitoring, biometric tracking, and medical recovery devices ... but also things like robotic tackling dummies and virtual reality headsets). 

They don't just film games, they film the practices ... and each individual drill. Coaches and players get a cut of the film on their tablets as soon as they leave. It is a process of constant feedback, constant improvement, or constant renewal. Everything has the potential to be a lesson. 

Beyond The Snap

The focus is not just internal, on the team. They focus on the competition as well. Before a game, the coaches prepare a game plan and have the team watch tape of their opponent in order to understand the tendencies and mentally prepare for what's going to happen.

During the game, changes in personnel groups and schemes keep competitors on their toes and allow the team to identify coverages and predict plays. If the offense realizes a play has been predicted, they call an audible based on what they see in front of them. Coaches from different hierarchies work in tandem to respond faster to new problems. 

After the game, the film is reviewed in detail. Each person gets a grade on each play, and the coaches make notes for each person about what they did well and what they could do better.

Think about it ... everyone knows what game they are playing ... and for the most part, everybody understands the rules, and how to keep score (and even where they are in the standings). Even the coaches get feedback based on performance, and they look to others for guidance. 

Imagine how easy that would be to do in business. Imagine how much better things could be if you did those things.

Challenge accepted!

Confirmation Bias 101

Echo chambers and confirmation bias aren't new.

Recently, however, it seems that we are increasingly presented with issues divided into polar opposite points of view, with little to no tolerance for disagreement. 

Nonetheless, not all topics need to be debated or negotiated. 

Sometimes, a fact is a fact.

Hopefully, this video won't step on any toes - but if you're a "flat earther," I wouldn't watch. 

Here's a clip from Behind The Curve (a documentary on the flat earth society) that I think perfectly shows confirmation bias. 

 

via Behind The Curve

Start with the evidence and then form a conclusion. Doing that in reverse doesn't tend to work out as well.

As a polite reminder, if a conspiracy relies on millions of people (as well as different countries and organizations) to all commit to the disinformation campaign ... it's not likely true.

As Occam's razor states, the simplest explanation is often the correct one. 

Speaking At The 13th Annual Rocky Mountain Economic Summit

The Rocky Mountain Economic Summit is one of my favorite events to attend each year.  It is hosted by the Global Interdependence Center and the Bronze Buffalo Club just outside Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 

Major media outlets like Bloomberg, Forbes, and Reuters cover the event live.

This year, some of the key speakers included Paul Ryan, Megan Greene, David Kotok, John Silvia, and Paul McCulley. 

I had the pleasure of speaking during their session on Cybersecurity and AI. The Global Interdependence Center also recorded our session, so I'm thankful to share it with you here. Let me know what you think. 

 

The mood was pretty optimistic and bullish. As you might expect, there was a growing interest in crypto and blockchain … and a growing sense of “us versus them” directed at China and Russia. We live in interesting times!

If you want to download my presentation slides, you can do that here. 

World Happiness Levels in 2021

Happiness is a complex concept comprised of positive emotions, lack of negative emotions, comfort, freedom, wealth, and more. 

Regardless of how hard it is to quantify ... humans strive for it.

Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting. 

Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report does a good job with its annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses).  Click the image below to view the Report.

via World Health Report

In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. 

As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there was a significant increase in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed. Moreover, the decline in mental health was higher in groups that already had mental health problems - women, young people, and poorer people. 

What's interesting about this is the resilience and bounce-back seen within the data. Considering the amount of disruption to households this past year, it's remarkable how stable the averages for countries have been. 

Ultimately, globally, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health. 

Despite the changes in emotions in 2020, overall life satisfaction rebounded quickly after March of 2020. 

via Visual Capitalist

While there was a decrease in overall happiness, the relative balance in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or set point of happiness. I'm always impressed by what people can get used to, and how you can find pockets of joy in even the hardest times ... or how people with everything they could ever ask for can still feel profound unhappiness. 

It's oddly beautiful and a great reminder that happiness comes from within. Obviously, our environment and circumstances play a part. It's easier to be content with a roof over your head and a stable job. But, after a certain point, it's on us to create our realities. 

Onwards!

What Comes Next With Sébastien Toutant

The opening ceremonies for the Tokyo Olympics started on Friday. 

While the Olympics are more controversial this year than normal, I think most of us can appreciate watching the best athletes performing at their peak. We can also laugh at the cardboard "anti-sex" beds they put in the Olympic Village.

With that, I thought I'd bring back a video I shot with Sébastien Toutant who won a gold medal at the most recent winter Olympics. I met Sébastien while leaving an F1 race in Montréal. I had a chance to talk to him about what makes him tick and where he sees his future.

It's a great case study in self-actualization after you've reached the top of your proverbial mountain top. 

There are multiple factors at work in high performance and in keeping yourself passionate and motivated. 

1. Find Your Unique Ability

"Snowboarding is my passion. I was doing it every day ... Over time, It's my job, but it's still my passion. Every time I strap in on my board, I love it. You have to balance it. You have to keep the fun alive." 

Unique Ability is where there's superior skill and it gives you energy, instead of taking energy. When you have to grind every day to become the best, and it's taking energy away from you, you're not going to stick with it. 

When it lights you up, there's no limit to the hours or years you can commit to it. 

2. Maintain Good Habits and Build New Skills 

"Keep Snowboarding. Keep Training. Keep Trying New Tricks.  The sport is moving so much, so you always have to improve your riding and invent new tricks. Push the sport to the next level." 

Success is a war of attrition. You gain it every day through consistent habits and hard work. It's easy to talk the talk, but it's harder to set yourself up for success. Structure your life, and your environment in a way that makes success the default.

3. Stay Focused on the Future

"You have to make sacrifices to make it there. But it's worth it."

At my office, we practice the idea of "Measure Backwards, Plan Forwards". 

To us that means it's important to take time to appreciate how far you've come ... yet, it's also important to stay focused on what you can still accomplish. 

Your edge is decaying faster than ever before. Competition is growing not just from your competitors but from technology as well.  Stay focused on next. 

By the way, there is one other lesson this encounter reminded me about – opportunity is all around you ... waiting for you to notice and act!  It would have been easy for me to filter out the "kid" standing behind me in a line after an event.  Luck favors the prepared.  Stay focused on what you want and keep your eyes, ears, and mind open for ways to get it!

Onwards!

Mindset Matters – When the Revolution Comes Knocking

Last week, we talked about the future of AI and the potential for AI to start taking over some jobs (freeing humans to raise their chins and do something better and more meaningful).

One of the key factors I talked about was "mindset." For example, consider whether you’re in a scarcity or abundance mindset? If you are in a scarcity mindset, that probably means you see life as a finite pie with only so many slices ... and if someone else gets a big slice (or something new interrupts you getting your slice), you worry that you might not get what you deserve.  On the other hand, an abundance mindset recognizes that there’s plenty out there for everybody, and if there’s no more pie, we can always create new pies (or something better).

I have a picture in my conference room that says energy might be the most important thing to measure.

via GapingVoid

Yes, it means what it sounds like - but, for us, it also means more. 

We use A.I. to trade.  So, measuring performance is important.  But so are all sorts of production, efficiency, and effectiveness measures. 

There are hundreds of important metrics we track day-to-day.  Energy impacts many of them (and absolutely affects your ability to respond to change). 

Energy affects how you feel, what you do, and what you make things mean.  Consequently, energy is an effective way to measure your values too.

We’ve seen numerous inflection points in the past with the introduction of electricity, and then the assembly line and the industrial revolution, with the internet, and now with AI.

There’s always disruption, and there’s always pain, but your mindset and energy can radically change what that means to you ... and what you choose to do.

AI is coming.  Disruption is coming!  It's no longer simply possible; it's not even just probable; it is inevitable.   With that said, what you make it mean and how you respond is up to you.

In a prior post, I shared a mindset scorecard I created at Genius Network.

Normally, Genius Network is private, and these recordings are for internal use only; but I asked permission to share my impromptu session with you. 

Check it out. In the first 5 minutes, I introduce the scorecard concept. For the next 10 minutes, you'll get an extra look at the resulting group discussion. 

 

Think of each comparison as a spectrum. They're not necessarily "one-or-the-other," but they can help identify where you are on the scale of "what to avoid" versus "what you want."

• Blaming <-----> Encouraging
• Insistent <-----> Inspirational
• Fearful <-----> Abundant
• Steadfast <-----> Curious
• Clogging <-----> Cleansing
• Resentful <-----> Grateful
• Zero-Sum <-----> Relational
• Small-Minded <-----> Visionary

These words mean something to me, but they may need tooling to work for you. Changing the names, the order of the comparisons, the number of comparisons, etc., can have a profound effect on the usefulness of this scorecard to you. 

I encourage you to think about how you could use this scorecard and how you can bring attention to those people and actions that best embody the traits that are important to you or your business.

Identifying the words you want to embody and the person you want to be can help make you responsive to change and a better version of yourself.

Hope that helps.

Learning To Live (and Work) With Millennials

Simon Sinek is a best-selling author (Start With Why) and gave a Ted Talk on how great leaders inspire action (that got 30 million views). 

In an interview with Tom Bilyeu (co-founder of Quest Nutrition), he addresses the issue of managing Millennials – and why they seem lazy, entitled, and unfocused.

 

via Inside Quest

Sinek points to four characteristics that help "create" this issue:

• Parenting,
• Technology,
• Impatience, and
• Environment.

Sinek suggests that this generation is a product of failed parenting strategies ... being told they're special without effort, being told they can have anything they want, and being handed trophies for showing up.

Next, add technology to the mix.

Before millennials, interaction happened in person much more frequently ... meaningful trust-based relationships were built with time and effort, and when you were at dinner with friends or watching a movie, you were living in the moment, not distracted by your phone.

For added irritation, next add impatience (which is a byproduct of instant gratification).  

Why wait for amusement when it's a text away?  You've got Netflix making video rental a thing of the past, Tinder making dating as easy as "swiping right" and Amazon making it so you don’t have to check out when you go to a store.

Is it any wonder that these kids have short attention spans? Now imagine the Gen Z kids forced into quarantine where their only companionship was online?

Now put those kids in an environment where they're forced to realize you can't rush success, and you can't force meaningful relationships. Where they have to put in the effort and stay focused for extended periods of time

It's a story that often doesn't have a happy ending.

I thought it would be fun to ask one of them what they thought about it ... So I asked my son, Zachary.  Here are his thoughts.

I was born in 1993. When I was in elementary school, I was already using a computer almost daily, and a lot of my education and entertainment was computer-centric. 

As such, I am a textbook “Millennial.”

I use Snapchat too much, I often relax by playing games on my phone, and I am easily distracted. Because of that, I found this interview with Simon Sinek particularly interesting.

I’m lucky. My dad forced me to work hard and valued my efforts more than my results.  So, while I'm constantly reminded that I'm lucky I'm not working 80-hour days (and being forced to get a haircut every week), I do feel as if I'm a step ahead of many of my peers.

I still find myself falling into a lot of the "traps" Sinek describes – I'm reliant on social media; I'm frustrated when my effort doesn't transfer into immediate impact; and I struggle to not take my phone out whenever there's not another stimulus keeping me occupied. 

That being said, I do think the issue is bigger than millennials. It's not just our generation that takes their phones out at meetings and ignores who they're with for someone on their phone. If you pay attention, I'll bet you'll notice that you do it as well. To me, it seems more like a trapping of the era than of a generation. 

The difference, I think, is that millennials spent their formative years in this environment. This does affect the way we see and interact with the world. But you can watch each generation chastise the youth for the same things as they get older. 

    "This new generation has no respect! They're too reliant on technology, and don't know how to do anything themselves! Lazy and entitled!

I'm positive I can find similar rhetoric levied against Generation X, Boomers, and more. There's always been resistance to new technologies and the belief that the new generation takes what they're blessed with for granted. I even catch myself judging Gen Z for the same things I remember being judged for as a teenager. 

Will we ever measure up to your expectations? Perhaps not ... because our generations approach the world the world so differently.

Nonetheless, we are still capable of greatness.  We are still driven to pursue growth, to create new things, and to provide value to our communities.  It's just that we are playing a different game and keeping score a little differently. 2020 brought a lot of that to the forefront of the conversation. 

Understanding that, in and of itself, can help to close the gap. As we mature and become the main working force, as we become managers and leaders, I think you'll find that a lot of our failings were the symptoms of youth – and have dissipated with age. 

There's plenty more I want to say, but I don't want to go on for too long.   I'm happy to have a more in-depth conversation offline. You can e-mail me at [email protected] with any thoughts on the subject, any questions, or just to say hello. 

Thanks. 

 

 

Humans Need Not Apply

While we all know that pop culture representations of AI aren't accurate - I'm still surprised how often I see people who are against Artificial Intelligence. It seems that many people are focus on science fiction's dystopian depictions of sentience and omniscience, while the reality is exciting (and much less scary). 

In my office, we use a lot of what seems like "futuristic" artificial intelligence approaches to understanding financial markets and enhancing decision-making. Most of my team are technical or data-science specialists that develop and drive the systems that create our systems. Despite the exponential growth of AI and its supporting technologies, I still believe the heart of AI is human.

 

 

Of course, I'm not sure how long that will be true.  But I'd bet it remains true for the next 25 years.

The video below was shot in 2014 and gives a great perspective on how quickly automation, robots, and eventually autonomous robots, are becoming pervasive. 

 

via CGPGrey

Automation used to mean big, bulky machines doing manual and repetitive work. Today, however, automation can land an aircraft, diagnose cancer, and trade. I'm fascinated by what is becoming possible ... and how, even when the A.I. is little more than an elegant use of brute force, incredible results are becoming commonplace.

In many cases, the results coming from machines coding other machines are matching or exceeding the work done by humans. 

And it's only getting better. 

In the past, innovation created new industries or allowed increased scale ... nonetheless, people are worried that the number of jobs the internet and Artificial Intelligence create isn't matching the number of jobs they're making obsolete. 

According to this study, approximately 50% of jobs will be automated by 2034.

Personally, I believe that freeing us to elevate our perspective and do more has always been a boon to society. Electricity put a lot of people out of work as well. Nonetheless, look what it made possible.

To date, human progress has been based on the division of labor. As our society progressed, our jobs have become increasingly specialized. Now, machines will be able to break down complex jobs into simple parts and complete them faster than we can. 

So, yes, the same technology that's currently creating opportunities could eventually put you out of a job ... but it also creates an opportunity for something new.

There's a lot of change coming, and that can be scary, but there's reason to be excited as well.

We live in a golden era of innovation, and we have longer life expectancies than ever before. Humans are immensely adaptable, and I'm sure we'll continue to grow to meet the challenges and opportunities we face. 

The reality is, we've been working symbiotically with "machines" since the very beginning.  Our definition of a "machine" simply continues to improve. It's fractal, and each time the technology we're adopting gets bigger, so does the eventual positive effect on day-to-day life. 

AI adoption is a big step, but the positive effect it can have on our lives is astronomical. 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - June 27th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why is Cognitive Flexibility Important and How Can You Improve It? (WEForum)
• The Perfect Number of Hours to Work Every Day? Five. (Wired)
• Artist Sells Invisible Sculpture for Over $18K. (NYPost)
• Check Out the Rotation of the Earth from a Whole New Perspective. (Flipboard)
• CRISPR Injected into the Blood Treats a Genetic Disease for First Time. (ScienceMag)

 

 

Trading Links:

• The Global IPO Market Has Never Been Hotter Than It is Right Now. (Bloomberg)
• Banks Will Double Their Capital Return After Successful Stress Test, No. 1 Analyst Mayo Says. (CNBC)
• Hotels and Restaurants' Rebound Summer Held Back by Shortages of Everything. (Wall Street Journal)
• Feds Accelerating Crypto World Crackdown. (FoxBusiness)
• Virgin Galactic Gets Official Clearance to Start Flying Paying Customers to Space. (Gizmodo)