The fear of a robot-dominated future is mounting ... But, is there a basis for that fear?
It's a common trope in film, but as we all know, media is meant to capture attention - not emulate reality.
Michael Osborne and Carl Frey, from Oxford University, calculated how susceptible various jobs are to automation. They based their results on nine key skills:
- social perceptiveness
- negotiation
- persuasion
- assisting and caring for others
- originality
- fine arts
- finger dexterity
- manual dexterity
- and the need to work in a cramped area
via Michael Osborne & Carl Frey (Click For A Comprehensive Infographic)
There are various statistics about the rate of change for robots taking jobs. Many expect that ~50% of current jobs will be automated by 2035. Turns out, that statistic is from Michael and Carl, and the numbers were 47% by 20341.
Realize that statistic actually refers to the risk of them being automated. That number doesn't take into account the realities of cost, regulation, politics, social pressure, preference, or the actual work and progress necessary to automate something – so it's unlikely the full 47% will be realized.
via The Economist
Nonetheless, many use that quote to point toward a dystopian future of joblessness and an increasing lack of middle-class mobility.
Mr. Frey isn't a proponent of that belief … and neither am I.
Automation and innovation free us to focus on what matters most (or what can create the most value). The goal is not to have machines let us be fat, dumb, and lazy … it is to free us to focus on bigger and better things.
Industrialization created short-term strife – but vastly increased the economic pie over the long term. So did electricity or the internet. It's likely that future automation will have similar effects, but it's possible to minimize the pain and potential negative impacts if we learn from previous iterations of this cycle. The fact that we're so far along technologically in comparison to previous revolutions means we're in a better position to proactively handle the transition periods.
New tech comes with both “promise” and “peril”. We must manage the short-term consequences of the new tech – because it is inevitable. With that said, by embracing innovation, we can make sure it is a boon to the middle-class (and all of society) and not the bane of their existence.
Throughout history, technology has always created more jobs than it has destroyed.
Progress means the restructuring of society’s norms … not the destruction of society.
When we first started using technology, that progress allowed humans to stop acting like robots (think farming and manufacturing). As technology improved, we have "robots" that seem to act more like humans. They can play chess, or shoot a basketball, etc.
The truth is that humans didn’t act like robots. They did what they had to to survive. As technology improved, we look back and have trouble imagining a time when humans had to do those things. Technology often focuses on the most pressing “constraint” or “pain." It isn’t getting more human, it is simply more capable … which frees us to ascend as well.
There are many aspects of humanity that robots can't yet replace. But as we move forward, technology will continue to free us to be more human (which I assume means to be more creative, more caring, more empathetic, and more original).
Doom and gloom sell. It's much easier to convince people something's going to be painful than amazing (because we're creatures of habit, and our monkey brains fear pain much more than they enjoy pleasure).
Our attitudes and actions play a pivotal role in how the world impacts us.
We are positioned not only to survive the revolution but to take advantage of it.
AI is a gold rush, but you don't have to be a miner to strike it rich. You can provide the picks and shovels, the amenities, or a map that helps people find treasures.
Onwards!
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[1] Frey, Carl & Osborne, Michael. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?
Global Happiness Levels in 2022
Happiness is a complex concept comprised of conditions that highlight positive emotions over negative ones – bolstered by the support of comfort, freedom, wealth, and other things people aspire to experience.
Regardless of how hard it is to describe (let alone quantify) ... humans strive for happiness.
Likewise, it is hard to imagine a well-balanced and objective "Happiness Report" because so much of the data required to compile it seems subjective and requires self-reporting.
Nonetheless, the World Happiness Report takes an annual look at quantifiable factors (like health, wealth, GDP, and life expectancy) and more intangible factors (like social support, generosity, emotions, and perceptions of local government and businesses). Click the image below to view the Report.
via visualcapitalist
In their 2021 report, there was a significant focus on the effect of COVID-19 on happiness levels and mental health. Much of that continued into the 2022 report.
As you might expect, the pandemic caused a significant increase in negative emotions reported. Specifically, there were substantial increases in reports of worry and sadness across the ninety-five countries surveyed. The decline in mental health was higher in groups prone to disenfranchisement or other particular challenges – e.g., women, young people, and poorer people.
It is remarkable how resilient and stable the scores have been globally considering the amount of uncertainty, stress, and disruption households experienced this past year.
Ultimately, humans persevered in the face of economic insecurity, anxiety, and challenges to mental and physical health.
This year, the average score improved slightly compared to 2021 - though worry and stress have continued to rise.
There has been a decrease in overall happiness compared to pre-pandemic scores. Yet, the relative balance demonstrated in the face of such adversity may point towards the existence of a hedonic treadmill - or a set-point of happiness.
Regardless of the circumstances, people can focus on what they choose, define what it means to them, and choose their actions.
I'm still surprised by what people can get used to ... and how some people find pockets of joy in even the hardest of times. Conversely, other people use the same ability to feel profound unhappiness, even when they have seemingly everything.
It's an oddly beautiful reminder that happiness comes from within.
Another bright spot, worth mentioning, has been the massive global upsurge in benevolence. People are supporting others, communities have stepped up, more money is being donated to charity, and more people are volunteering.
Onwards!
Posted at 01:59 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Religion, Science, Trading, Travel | Permalink | Comments (0)
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