Capitalogix

Spicing Up Valentine's Day

Valentine's Day is coming up. 

Does it matter?  Could it? 

Are you at least planning on having a little fun?

 

 

Love is an interesting concept. It can be a noun (a "thing") or a verb (an "action").  Perhaps it can be both ...  an emotion that you act on? 

Likewise, the words "I love you" can be a declaration of how you feel to someone ... or a command to yourself to treat a person with love.

On a practical note, I found a gift that really worked for me.  It's called "Lovebox" ... and, no, it's not a sex toy. 

via GIPHY

Lovebox is a tool to deepen emotional connections.  It consists of a lidded wooden box with a heart attached to the front and a phone app for you to use to compose your messages.  Inside the Lovebox is a screen, a wifi connection, and a little motor.  When you send the box a message, the heart spins to notify the recipient that they have a message.

 

The Lovebox gives me an opportunity to send special messages to my wife whether I'm home or away. I know that she loves seeing the heart spinning (and I believe that it makes us a bit closer each time she lifts the lid to see her message).  Lovebox creates anticipation.

I was unsure how my wife would respond  ... But she LOVES it ... and looks forward to receiving messages (and reminds me if I forget or seem to be running late with them). 

With that said, she made it clear she didn't want me pre-writing messages and having the app drip them to her like a marketing campaign.  So, of course, my next message was "A robot wrote this."

We've been using Lovebox for over six months and it still seems fresh and fun.  Another example of how technology can improve human lives.

Hope you  (and your special someone) have a Happy Valentine's Day.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 9th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Humans are Hardwired to Dismiss Facts that Don't Fit Their Worldview. (FastCompany)
• Timeless Truths about Disruptive Innovation. (Forbes)
• 98.6 Degrees Fahrenheit Isn't the Average Anymore. (Wall Street Journal)
• Apps Could Soon Predict When You'll Die: the Science of How. (Inverse)
• Google Keeps a Scary Amount of Data on You. Here's How to Find and Delete It. (CNet)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Why We're Failing to Regulate the Most Powerful Tech We've Ever Faced. (VentureBeat)
• Goldman Sachs and Amazon May Soon Be in the Banking Business. (Quartz)
• Intercontinental Exchange Makes Takeover Offer for EBay.(Wall Street Journal)
• Macy's to Close 125 Stores and Slash 2,000 Jobs Over Next Three Years. (USAToday)
• Godfather' of Technical Analysis Says Stock-market Downturn is Going to Get Worse: I am Looking at a 10% Drop Maybe a Little Bit More'. (MarketWatch)

 

 

 

Mummy, I've Lost My Voice

Some applications of technology are just ... strange. That being said, I think there's something beautiful about science being done "just to see if we can". 

Not every experiment needs to be in pursuit of some grand truth or miracle cure... Sometimes it's nice just to be curious. 

In that regard, the researchers who recreated a 3,000-Year-Old Egyptian mummy's voice might "take the cake" (or "drop the mic"). 

 

Nature via Leeds Teaching Hospitals (Click To Learn More)

The mummy's name is Nesyamun. They used a 3D printer and an electronic larynx to create the sound. They didn't recreate his tongue - so his voice doesn't take that into account. From what I can tell, all they've gotten "him" to say is "ehh". Very mummy-like. 

Here's a link to the sound. 

For what it's worth, they did test this methodology on a living human to validate it before going to some 3000-year-old dead guy.

Here's an interview with one of the scientists on BBC's Inside Science. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading, February 2nd, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• MIT Professors Sound Alarm on US Falling Behind on AI. (CA)
• Doomsday Clock Moves to 100 Seconds to Midnight - Closest Point to Nuclear Annihilation Since Cold War. (FoxNews)
• The Bill Belichick Trade Turns 20 on Monday. (ProFootballTalk)
• Incentive Competitions and the Challenge of Space Exploration. (Interesting Engineering)
• How Time-Travel Works in Fiction: a Concise Breakdown of How Time Travel Functions in Popular Movies, Books & TV Shows. (OpenCulture)

 

Trading Links:

• Peter Diamandis: in the next 10 Years, We'll Reinvent Every Industry'. (TheGuardian)
• 5,000 Years of Interest Rates. (DailyReckoning)
• Will We Ever Stop Talking about the VIX? (RCM Alternatives)
• How to Make a Billion Dollars on Horse Racing. (Bloomberg)
• Tesla is More Valuable Than GM, Ford CombinedDespite Selling 98% Fewer Cars. (Observer)

 

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 26th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• 8 AI Trends We're Watching in 2020. (O)
• Navigation Apps Changed the Politics of Traffic. (CityLab)
• There's No 'Going Dark:' Always-On Surveillance Posing Risks to US Covert Operations. (TD)
• 6 Predictions About Data in 2020 and the Coming Decade. (Forbes)
• Data is Only the Beginning. Connecting the Dots Creates Knowledge. However, It is Wisdom Which Translates Insights into Impactful Decisions. (LinkedIn)

 

Trading Links:

• How 5 Big Tech Companies Really Make Money. (Infographic)
• Capitalism Draws Fire, Despite Strong Global Economy. (Wall Street Journal)
• Immune Discovery 'May Treat All Cancer'. (BBC)
• How to Raise a Billionaire: Maye Musk on Where Elon Gets His Drive. (Forbes)
• Toyota Invests $394 Million in Electric Air Taxi Company Joby Aviation. (Forbes)

 

 

Super Bowl 2020

A friend has two tickets for the 2020 SUPER BOWL — both box seats. He paid $2,500 for each ticket, but didn't realize last year when he bought them that it was going to be on the same day as his wedding. If you are interested, he is looking for someone to take his place — it’s at St. Dominic's Church in San Francisco at 3pm. Her name is Melissa . She's 5'7 about 140 lbs. She's a good cook, too. She'll be the one in the white dress.

 

As for the Super Bowl, it seems like this will be a good matchup. The KC Chiefs are in it for the first time in 50 years (and have an amazing offense), while the 49ers are coming off a series of tough seasons (but have an amazing defense). It will also be a Super Bowl without Bill Belichick's scowl gracing our screens. 

It's not just the fans that are excited about the matchup, it's also the bookies. Two years ago, gamblers set a record by placing $158.6 million in Super Bowl bets. Expect more of the same with gambling now legalized in an additional 13 states beyond Nevada. 

 

If you're still looking for a bet – there's another wishful thinking approach you could take to find one ... it is called the "Super Bowl Indicator."

 

 

The theory is that a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. So, if you're hoping for a strong S&P you'd be rooting for 49ers. 

There's one big caveat ... it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that's where they got their start (or as a data scientist would caution ... they did that to fit the data better). 

With that "adjustment," at one point the SBI was "right" 33 years out of 41 - an 80% success rate. Sounds good, right?

Come on ... you know better. It's been wrong four of the last four years ... another sign of spurious correlation if you weren't sure. 

Here are some other "fun" stock market fallacies:

• January Indicator
• Aspirin Count Theory
• Hemline Indicator
• Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Indicator
• Men's Underwear Index

 

Back to Reality

Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have little in common, and we probably intuitively understand that correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order and look for signs that make markets seem a little bit more predictable.

The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful. 

Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator. More people than you would hope, or guess,  attempt to forecast the market based on gut, ancient wisdom, and prayers.

While hope and prayer are good things ... they aren’t good trading strategies.

As goofy as it sounds, some of these "far-fetched" theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience...

I have a thought experiment I sometimes ask people. 

What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 any given year?

... Now, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?

Recently, the answer is about 5% (and that's in a predominantly bull market).  For the record, that's significantly worse than chance. Perhaps that means something they're doing is hurting, not helping. 

 

 via Gaping Void

There's simply too much information out there for us to digest, process, rank, and use appropriately.

Every second you spend looking at a market is a second wasted.

There are people beating the markets — not by using the Super Bowl Indicator ... they're doing it with more algorithms and better technology. 

There will never be less data or slower markets. A good reminder that if you don't know what your edge is ... you don't have one!

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 19th, 2020

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Artificial Intelligence: How to Measure the I' in AI. (TheNextWeb)
• Samsung Sheds Light on Its 'Artificial Human' Project. (EnGadget)
• Secrets from a Former FBI Negotiator on How to Get What You Want. (TheLadders)
• Here's the Advice Mark Cuban Would Give His 20-Year-old Self. (CNBC)
• Want to Grow 10X? Here are 17 Books about Business and Life You Should Read in 2020. (TheLadders)

 

Trading Links:

• The Decade of the "Young Old" Begins. (WorldIn)
• 2019 A Year to Forget for Hedge Funds. (Benzinga)
• Fortnite Made $1.8 Billion in 2019. (CNN)
• Amazon Partners with Lamborghini, Rivian to Offer Alexa Voice Assistant in Vehicles. (CNBC)
• Apple Made Investors Half a Trillion Dollars Last Year. Time to Hedge Your Bets. (Barrons)

Law of Diminishing Returns

At some point, more of the same stops paying off ...

 

via Sketchplanations

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much you get injured, when you drink too much water you get poisoned, etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

 

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... too much of a good thing is a bad thing. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 12th, 2020

As the Australian wildfires rage on - an inestimable number of animals have died.

If you wish to donate to help relief efforts, you can do so with any of these trusted sources. 

• The Australian Red Cross
• GIVIT - Donating Essential items to Victims
• St. Vincent De Paul Society
• The Nature Conservancy Australia

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• 20-year-old McDonald's Burger Still Looks Brand New, Smells like Cardboard. (FoxNews)
• Japanese Woman Turns 117 Years Old, Extends Record as World's Oldest Person. (Reuters)
• China Quietly Confirms a Third CRISPR-Edited Baby Has Been Born. (ScienceAlert)
• Pope Francis Apologizes for Losing His Patience after Slapping Woman's Hand. (FoxNews)
• Fresh Cambridge Analytica Leak Shows Global Manipulation is Out of Control'. (TheGuardian)

 

Trading Links:

• Jeff Bezos is Still the Richest Person in the World. (CNN)
• 4 High-Potential Sectors for AI and ML Startup Success. (Readwrite)
• Tesla Delivered 367,500 Cars Last Year. (CNN)
• The Market Surged Last Year. Don't Expect the Same in 2020. (New York Times)
• It Was a Dismal Year for Hedge Funds: Here Are 2019'S Fund Closures and Family-Office Conversions. (ZeroHedge)

 

Happy Hanukkah! (and Happy Holidays!)

It's that time of year again.  Wow, how time flies. End of the year and the first night of Chanukah - the Jewish festival of lights. 

We light the Menorah (Chanukah candles), eat latkas (potato pancakes), exchange gifts, spin the Dreidel (a gambling toy), and enjoy a sense of family togetherness for 8 days and nights.

That's a long time right?! Sometimes it seems even longer with my family. 

As a gift to all of you, here is "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler on Saturday Night Live.  It became an instant classic (and he since released a second, third, and fourth version.)

Here is the video. And, if you're feeling left out - here's Adam Sandler's Christmas Song.

 

via SNL

It's not too different from Christmas. 

The cynic in me believes the gift part of the holiday was invented by merchants.

Regardless, the Capitalogix team has been in a festive mood and the office has been filled with holiday cheer.

 From my family to yours, Happy Holidays!