Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 9th, 2025

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• OpenAI's Deep Research Smashes Records for the World's Hardest AI Exam, With ChatGPT O3-Mini and DeepSeek Left in Its Wake. (TechRadar)
• You Can Try DeepSeek’s R1 Through Perplexity—without the Security Risk. (FastCompany)
• The Recruitment Effort that Helped Build Elon Musk’s DOGE Army. (Wired)
• Humans are Evolving Before Our Eyes on the Tibetan Plateau. (ScienceAlert)
• How to Naturally Boost Your Dopamine, Oxytocin, Serotonin, and Endorphins. (FastCompany)

 

 

Trading Links:

• The True Cost of a Super Bowl Ad? You Don’t Want to Know. (FastCompany)
• Trump Says America Was at Its Richest in the Late 1800s. Is That True? (MarketWatch)
• The “5 Types of Wealth”: Why You’re Wealthier Than You Think. (BigThink)
• America’s Most Generous Philanthropists 2025. (Forbes)
• Why the AI World is Suddenly Obsessed With a 160-Year-Old Economics Paradox. What Is It – And What Does It Mean Today? (NPR)

 

 

Betting On The Super Bowl Champion ...

Are you trying to get rich quickly? Do you want to know if the markets will be bull or bear this year?

Look no further than the “Super Bowl Indicator”. It has to be real; the winning percentage is high, and there’s even a Wikipedia page about it.

 

Image via NFL/Getty Images.

The theory is that a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market, and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. So, for those who care more about markets than football, you’d be rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles. 

There is one big caveat (among lots of others) ... it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that’s where they got their start. 

If you accept that, the Super Bowl Indicator has about a 68% success rate. Sounds good, right?

Come on ... you know better.

Here are some other “fun” stock market indicators:

• January Indicator
• Aspirin Count Theory
• Hemline Indicator
• Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Indicator
• Men’s Underwear Index
• Big Mac Index

 

Back to Reality

Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have nothing in common. We also probably intuitively understand correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order, and look for signs that make markets seem slightly more predictable.

The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful. 

Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator.

More people than you would hope (or guess) attempt to forecast the market based on gut instinct, ancient wisdom, or prayers.

While hope and prayer are good things ... they aren’t good trading strategies.

As goofy as it sounds, some of these “far-fetched” theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience.

To get a better perspective, here is a thought experiment to try. 

What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 in any given year?

... Then, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?

The answer is that, on average, less than 33% of active managers beat the S&P in any given year. Last year, 43% beat the Index. Even more interesting is that over a 15-year period, the numbers drop much further. Depending on who is measured, only 12% of active managers and about 5% of U.S. Equity Funds beat the S&P over a 15-year period.

Here are a couple of things to consider when you evaluate those statistics. First, market statistics represent predominantly bull market periods (and underperformance tends to spike during bear markets). Second, the statistics mentioned were for professional traders and funds (and most retail traders do considerably worse than that). Third, and perhaps most importantly, the implication is that professional traders’ “intelligent” choices often turn out worse than chance. That means something they’re doing is hurting performance (rather than helping it). 

via Gaping Void

There’s simply too much information out there for us to digest, process, rank, and use appropriately.

There will never be less data or slower markets.

The only thing you can predict confidently about the markets is that volatility and noise will increase.

There are people beating the markets — not by using the Super Bowl Indicator ... they’re doing it with more algorithms and better technology.

Let me know if you want to learn more about that.

Onwards.

Are you trying to get rich quickly? Do you want to know if the markets will be bull or bear this year?

Look no further than the “Super Bowl Indicator”. It has to be real; the winning percentage is high, and there’s even a Wikipedia page about it.

 

Image via NFL/Getty Images.

The theory is that a Super Bowl win for a team from the AFC foretells a decline in the stock market, and a win for the NFC means the stock market will rise in the coming year. So, for those who care more about markets than football, you’d be rooting for the Philadelphia Eagles. 

There is one big caveat (among lots of others) ... it counts the Pittsburgh Steelers as NFC because that’s where they got their start. 

If you accept that, the Super Bowl Indicator has about a 68% success rate. Sounds good, right?

Come on ... you know better.

Here are some other “fun” stock market indicators:

• January Indicator
• Aspirin Count Theory
• Hemline Indicator
• Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Indicator
• Men’s Underwear Index
• Big Mac Index

 

Back to Reality

Rationally, we understand that football and the stock market have nothing in common. We also probably intuitively understand correlation ≠ causation. Yet, we crave order, and look for signs that make markets seem slightly more predictable.

The problem with randomness is that it can appear meaningful. 

Wall Street is, unfortunately, inundated with theories that attempt to predict the performance of the stock market and the economy. The only difference between this and other theories is that we openly recognize the ridiculousness of this indicator.

More people than you would hope (or guess) attempt to forecast the market based on gut instinct, ancient wisdom, or prayers.

While hope and prayer are good things ... they aren’t good trading strategies.

As goofy as it sounds, some of these “far-fetched” theories perform better than professional money managers with immense capital, research teams, and decades of experience.

To get a better perspective, here is a thought experiment to try. 

What percentage of active managers beat the S&P 500 in any given year?

... Then, what percentage beat the S&P 500 over 15 years?

The answer is that, on average, less than 33% of active managers beat the S&P in any given year. Last year, 43% beat the Index. Even more interesting is that over a 15-year period, the numbers drop much further. Depending on who is measured, only 12% of active managers and about 5% of U.S. Equity Funds beat the S&P over a 15-year period.

Here are a couple of things to consider when you evaluate those statistics. First, market statistics represent predominantly bull market periods (and underperformance tends to spike during bear markets). Second, the statistics mentioned were for professional traders and funds (and most retail traders do considerably worse than that). Third, and perhaps most importantly, the implication is that professional traders’ “intelligent” choices often turn out worse than chance. That means something they’re doing is hurting performance (rather than helping it). 

via Gaping Void

There’s simply too much information out there for us to digest, process, rank, and use appropriately.

There will never be less data or slower markets.

The only thing you can predict confidently about the markets is that volatility and noise will increase.

There are people beating the markets — not by using the Super Bowl Indicator ... they’re doing it with more algorithms and better technology.

Let me know if you want to learn more about that.

Onwards.

Happy Birthday, Mom

Yesterday was my Mother's 85th birthday. 

Her children surprised her with over 60 family and friends at dinner last night. Here is a photo of us with her at the party.

My mom is quite the woman. She went to Cornell, taught Spanish Literature at Temple University, and has volunteered for countless good causes. At 40, as her kids became more self-sufficient, she decided to go to law school and become a lawyer to help those who needed it most. That doesn't even begin to capture it! For example, she still serves as a museum docent and is an active member of many clubs and organizations. In addition, after my Dad died, she chose to serve as a hospice counselor to help families going through that difficult time. After doing that for a while, she decided that she wanted to continue – but in a more positive way. So, to help make things better and easier to bear, she became a clown to bring light to people struggling. That is not a sentence I imagined writing a few years ago.

My mom also loves poems, wordplay, and puzzles.

As part of her celebration, we had everyone (OK, almost everyone) write poems for her. 

I did not write a poem (though I did write something) ... and I also chose not to use ChatGPT (or any other large language model) to help with what I wrote. 

I feel like I should explain that. What I did write, came from the heart.

If my goal had simply been to come up with a poem, I would have used ChatGPT or one of its competitors. The truth is, many people at the event did exactly that, and I was surprised at the quality of their output.

With that said, there's something meaningful about the process of thinking deeply about something (in this case, my Mother) and choosing which things to highlight (or set aside), what to poke fun at, and which things to express gratitude for. The act of thinking and writing is valuable ... separate and apart from the output generated.

The same is true for your life as well. Being and Doing are both important. 

Your identity and strategies combine to create the life you are living. Said a different way, the things you choose to focus on (and what you make them mean) shape your perspective and guide your actions. 

That is also why it's vitally important to consciously create a compelling future that calls you forward (and keep score by tracking your progress in ways that resonate with your values).

Here is a small excerpt from my love note to my Mother.

The Golden rule says “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” But sometimes, it’s important to remember to be as kind to yourself as you are to others.

As I think about you and what I wish for you, Mom, it’s that you’re as kind and understanding to yourself as you’ve been to those around you.

It’s important to recognize the progress you’ve made with the good you’ve done, rather than what could have or should have happened - or how many things you still feel the need to do.

I think one of the most useful definitions of “intelligence” is that it is the ability to get more of what you want - and for you, Mom, I think that is a sense of happiness, contentment, and purpose. In your words - a Happy Heart.

Happy Birthday, Mom … and many more! 

I suspect we all know the power of purpose. With a big enough WHY, the HOWs don't seem to matter.

The average age at this party was probably 80 – and at least one of them was 100! Think how important it is for them to have a sense of purpose and accomplishment!!

But if it is important for them ... it is probably more important to you because of something I call The Time Value of Life (which we'll discuss next week).

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 12th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Incarcerated Firefighters Play Key Role in Battling Los Angeles Wildfires. (Particle)
• Transition 2025: A Report the Incoming Trump Administration Should Read. (CFR)
• What Happened to Justin Trudeau? (RollingStone)
• How OpenAI’s Sam Altman is Thinking About AGI and Superintelligence in 2025. (Time)
• AI Could Crack Unsolvable Problems — And Humans Won't Be Able to Understand the Results. (LiveScience)

Trading Links:

• The Insurance Apocalypse – Fire, Money, and Who Gets Burned. (TheBulwark)
• US Top Court Leans Towards TikTok Ban Over Security Concerns. (BBC)
• VCs Say AI Companies Need Proprietary Data to Stand Out From the Pack. (TechCrunch)
• Wall Street Just Got Another Sign that Dealmaking is on the Rebound. (Finance)
• Dow Sees Worst Start to a Year Since 2016 as Fed Rate-Cut Hopes Fade for 2025. (MarketWatch)

How'd Markets Do In 2024

At the beginning of 2024, I asked the question - how did markets do in 2023?

It makes sense to ask the same question as we start 2025. 

Before I get started, it’s worth stating that the market is not the economy ... but with Trump about to step into office, I know people are wondering. 

I still think about the often-quoted quip “It's the economy, stupid” - coined by James Carville, a strategist in Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 U.S. presidential election against incumbent George H. W. Bush.

2022 was the worst year for the U.S. stock market since the 2008 financial crisis.

2023 was much better, but much of the gains came in concentrated sectors.  

2024 saw nearly every sector posting gains - driven primarily by AI enthusiasm and a robust U.S. economy. 

To help you get a sense of 2024 returns, VisualCapitalist put together a few helpful infographics.

 

via visualcapitalist

66% of companies on the S&P ended up in positive territory this year. The S&P also had its best two-year stretch since the late 90s. 

Communication Services usurped IT’s #1 spot, driven primarily by Meta & Google. Strong consumer spending and digital ad revenue brought ad spending to almost $400 billion. 

Materials was the only sector to see negative returns, hampered by China’s economic slowdown and increased interest rates. 

Here is a more global look at return by asset class.

 

via visualcapitalist

Driven by that end-of-year run, Bitcoin surged to all-time highs, and gold also saw its best performance in 14 years. Meanwhile, bonds suffered heavily amid reflationary concerns and a potential widening deficit under the Trump administration.

In 2024, I predicted a brief market correction, blamed on various geopolitical instabilities and partisan weaknesses, followed by a long and steady push higher as the November elections approached.

How did that prediction hold up? I'd say pretty well. 

On one level, I try not to think about or predict markets (because I know better). On another level, sometimes I can’t help myself ...

Part of me is so bullish about AI (and its impact on other things) that it’s hard to maintain objectivity. With that said, I think we’ll have another decent year. However, I expect increased volatility and noise.

What do you expect for 2025?

Do you think the continued investment into generative AI will impact these trends?

Will cryptocurrency continue to explode? What scenarios do you think have the potential to be force multipliers?

How To Achieve Your Personal Goals in 2025

A few weeks ago, I shared an article about annual planning (and how Capitalogix does it.) 

This week, I want to discuss setting and meeting goals. 

I'm a big-picture guy, and I spend a lot of my time thinking about longer-term possibilities, but it's also important to think about your strategy for the coming year. I tend to break that up by Quarters. Lower timeframes than that are more tactical, and I consider that short-term planning or scheduling.

I think of it like using a map. To find the best route, you must start by figuring out where you are and where you want to be.

 

 

Activity, alone, isn't as important as many people hope. Think of it this way ... from where you are, there are infinite potential paths – but motion in a particular direction isn't "progress" if it doesn't take you toward your desired destination.

The right action is far more valuable than merely taking action ... and that means beginning with the end in mind. You are unlikely to hit the target if you aren't aiming at it.

Resolutions only work if you actually "want" to make them happen. It's one thing to hope that something happens; it's another to commit to making it happen. 

With that said, here are some tips. 

• Focus on What You Want.
• Focus on Why You Want It.
• Focus on Ways You Might Get it.
• Focus on Evidence of Progress.

Below, I'll take you through an example of each of the four steps.

Moving Towards a Solution, Rather Than Suffering From the Problem.

Like many people, I have three distinct collections of clothes: my "fat clothes," what I'm currently wearing, and my aspirational wardrobe. This personal reality reflects how our current state often sits between where we've been and where we want to go. Before I started getting healthy, my first instinct was to think, "I need to lose weight." Knowing that "you're fat" isn't helpful … my head quickly translated that to something a tad more positive yet generic, like: "I choose to be healthy and vital and to live a healthy lifestyle."

Blah, blah … They are just words. What I needed was something specific, measurable, and actionable. How about: "I will lose 15 pounds and stop eating after dinner?" OK, but that isn't inspiring, and there isn't much for me to do. I can do better than that—and I need to—if I want to commit to the outcome.

Figure-Out a Big Enough WHY, Rather Than Worrying about the HOW's.

This post isn't about health and fitness; it is about the mindset and techniques for setting empowering goals and plans in any situation.

So, while I could list many ways to lose weight (and I might even remember to do some of them), leveraging a driving force creates momentum. In other words, the first step in "Doing" is knowing WHY you want something.

I really do want to be healthy, fit, and vital (it sure beats the alternatives), and I want to have the energy and confidence to live and enjoy my life fully. The world is my playground, and I want to take advantage of more opportunities to play with family and friends. However, to do those things, I must find better and more sustainable ways to live a healthy lifestyle.

The WHYs are just as important for business goals, too.

Focus on Potential Solutions Rather than Problems or Challenges.

Obstacles Exist. The bad news: I don't eat fish, and I don't like vegetables (unless French Fries are vegetables). My joints aren't close to healthy from years of violent contact sports. I rarely get 7 hours of sleep, and being the CEO of a startup is stressful. The good news: none of those things matter, and even if they did, it just would mean that I have a lot of room for progress.

It is natural to focus on obstacles, but most obstacles are surmountable—with a big enough WHY, I might even choose to start eating vegetables. Instead of dwelling on limitations, use them as a reminder to focus on potential solutions. They are beacons pointing the way.

How do you do it? To focus on solutions, you can make two action-based lists: one is of things To-Do ... and another is of things Not-To-Do.

Here are some of the sample To-Do Items:

• I will drink more water than coffee.
• I will stretch or do basic calisthenics on days I don't go to the gym.
• I will make a healthy shake as a meal replacement rather than a snack or mini-meal.
• I will focus on relaxation and meditation as much as I focus on strength & physical exercises.

Here is the actionable list of Not-To-Do Items.

• I will not buy bigger pants or wear stretchy pants because of an expanding waistline.
• I will not eat snacks out of their container – and will portion out what I want first.
• I will not compare my current level of fitness to what I used to be able to do. Instead, I will focus on my actions and improvement.

Create Healthier Habits.

It is easy to follow a routine. So, here's another tip ... make your routine better. Here are some examples of things you could do to make 'being healthier' happen with less effort.

• Pre-sort your vitamins into daily doses, and keep them by the coffee machine.
• Buy healthy snacks, like fruit, raw nuts, or organic energy bars (instead of chips).
• Enjoy listening to music or a book/podcast during your "exercise time." Dedicating time to something doesn't mean you can't be multitasking.
• Choose to walk the dogs or park at the end of the parking lot, so you get to walk.
• Meet with friends at the gym or a hiking spot rather than at a bar or restaurant.

You get the idea. Get in the habit of looking for ways to create better habits. What habits could you alter slightly to make a big difference? Which things can you automate or outsource?

For three books about the subject, I recommend Tiny Habits by B.J. Fogg, Willpower Doesn't Work by Benjamin Hardy, or Atomic Habits by James Clear. 

Focus on Your Progress.

In this case, it really is about the journey. Instead of tracking how far you have to go ... notice how far you've come. Utilize an internal locus of control. It is about creating energy, momentum, and a sense of possibility. You may have a big, hairy, audacious goal in mind. That's fine, as long as you realize that reaching each milestone along the way is still an accomplishment.

• Find shoes that don't hurt your feet.
• Pick a gym or a personal trainer that you enjoy.
• Run more than two laps without stopping.

It doesn't matter what they are ... they all count as long as you know you are moving in the right direction.

Summary

The point of this exercise was not really to focus on fitness. These techniques and goal-setting tools work in any situation. The principles are:

1. First, determine what you want and why it is important. Then, focus on only the few things that are truly important to you. 
2. Second, find something you can do right now that will move you in the right direction.
3. Third, notice which things create (rather than take) energy. Spend your time on those, and automate or create routines to take care of the rest.
4. Fourth, plan forward but measure backward. Set milestones so that you can recognize and celebrate your progress.

In my business, this translates to having a mission and vision – defining what we want, why it's important, and the basic strategy to achieve it. Then, we create yearly "Big 3" goals that move us toward that long-term vision. Then, the team creates SMARTs (goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) and KPIs (key performance indicators) or OKRs (Objectives and Key Results) that measure evidence of success. Doing those things lets the team know where to spend their time and whether they're on the right track.

It isn't magic, but it works.

Hope this helped.

If you're interested, here are a few more articles I've written on health and longevity. 

• Getting Healthy: Creating A New Normal
• Living Longer and Healthier
• Snake Oil Or Cure?

Onwards!

The Reverse Turing: Advanced AIs Trying To Figure Out Who Is Human

The Turing Test, originally called the Imitation Game, tests a machine's ability to emulate a human. Developed in 1949, it is still a relevant test for AI. The Turing Test measures both knowledge and the ability to express it in a manner indistinguishable from a human response.

There is no agreed-upon definition for intelligence, so we can only approximate what skills we test AI on. 

While many people still believe they can tell when an AI has written something, several LLMs (like ChatGPT) have passed modern versions of the Turing Test. Many, including me, would argue LLMs still can't consistently pass the test. 

But what about the alternative? Could you convince an AI that you're not human?

Recently, a video went viral, showing a human pitting himself in VR against an AI version of Aristotle, Mozart, Leonardo da Vinci, Cleopatra, and Genghis Khan (who was played by a human).

 

via Tore Knabe

To set up the test, the human scripted the beginning and end of the dialogue and gave the AI agents a full transcript of the conversation up to that point. The entire video then played out in one recording, with no cuts.

In this "reverse" Turing test, the chatbots were scripted using various LLMs, asked questions, and then challenged to guess who the human was. Tore Knabe, the virtual reality game developer who devised the test and played the Genghis Khan role, answered one of the questions with a quote from Conan the Barbarian. 

"What a leader should do is to crush his enemies, see them driven before him, and hear the lamentations of their women."

Listening to his stuttered response, contrasted by the clunky and verbose AI responses, makes it very apparent to us, the audience, that he's human. The machines voted three-to-one that his response wasn't "nuanced or strategic" enough to represent an AI modeled on Genghis Khan's exploits. To ease your mind about hidden variables, the AIs weren't processing his voice directly. The audio was transcribed and sent to the AIs as text. 

Ultimately, this is a flawed test, and we don't really know how much of this is an actual test (versus just entertainment). In any case, it's still an interesting thought experiment. 

Do you think you could fool an AI? What if you had time to craft a response without penalty? What if your life was on the line?

For a bonus, here's a social Turing game where you can chat with someone for two minutes and try to figure out if it is a human or an AI. 

We live in interesting times!

Making The Intangible ... Tangible

I remember getting excited when my son finally seemed smart enough that I believed he was more intelligent than our dog. For the record, it took longer than I thought it would.

Likewise, human and chimpanzee infants start out remarkably similar in their early development. But here's where it gets interesting - their developmental paths take dramatically different turns once human babies begin acquiring language. This cognitive fork in the road fundamentally shapes their future capabilities.

Language is a big domino. It allows "chunking" and makes learning new things more efficient, effective, and certain.

Language is powerful in and of itself. Using language consciously is a multiplier.

Today, I want to focus on one such use of language – the power of naming things. 

The Power Of Naming Things

“I read in a book once that a rose by any other name would smell as sweet, but I've never been able to believe it. I don't believe a rose WOULD be as nice if it was called a thistle or a skunk cabbage.” - L.M. Montgomery, Anne of Green Gables

Before I go into detail, I shot a video on the subject, with a few examples from our business. 

via Capitalogix's YouTube Channel

Having a shared language allows you to communicate, coordinate, and collaborate more efficiently. But it's hard to have a shared language when you're discussing something intangible. 

That's where naming comes in. When you name something, you make the "invisible" visible (for you, your team, and anyone else who might care). 

I've often said the first step is to bring order to chaos. Then, wisdom comes from finer distinctions. Naming is a great way to create a natural taxonomy that helps people understand where they are – and where they are going.

I like thinking of it in comparison to value ladders in marketing. 

Each stage of the value ladder is meant to bring you to the next level. By the time someone gets to the top of the value ladder, they're your ideal customer. In other words, you create a natural pathway for a stranger (meaning someone who doesn't know you well) to follow, to gain value, trust, and momentum onwards ... ultimately, ascending to become someone who believes in, and supports, what you offer and who you are. 

Ultimately, successful collaboration relies on a common language. That is part of the reason naming is so important. The act of naming something makes it real, defines its boundaries and potentialities, and is often the first step toward understanding, adoption, and support. 

Creating "Amplified Intelligence"

There are always answers. We just have to be smart enough. - John Green

Here is an example from our business. When we first started building trading systems, all we had was an idea. Then, we figured out an equation (and more of them). Next, we figured out some methods or techniques ... which became recipes for success. As we progressed, we figured out a growing collection of useful and reliable ways to test, validate, automate, and execute the things we wanted to do (or to filter ... or prevent the things we wanted to avoid or ignore).

It probably seemed chaotic to someone who didn't understand the organizing principles. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt, which inhibit potential customers and stakeholders (such as a business's employees), compound the problem.

Coming up with the right organizing principle (and name) makes it easier to understand, accept, and adopt. For example, many traders and trading firms want to amplify intelligence – meaning they want to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and ultimately perform better (which might mean making and keeping more money). To help firms amplify intelligence, we created the Capitalogix Insight Engine (which is a platform of equations, algorithms, methods, testing tools, automations, and execution capabilities). Within that platform, we have functional components (or modules) that focus on ideas like portfolio construction, sensible diversification, alpha generation, risk management, and allocation strategies. Some of those words may not mean much to you if you're not a trader, but if you are, it creates an order that makes sense and a path from the beginning to the end of the process.

It makes sense. It explains where we are – while informing them about what might come later.

The point is that naming things creates order, structure, and a contextual map of understanding.

It is a compass heading used to navigate and guide in uncertain territory.

On the other hand, beware of the consequences of becoming overly connected to labels. 

Hope that helps.

Are You Ready For The Holidays?

As we near the holidays, you'd think people would be getting cheerier. Jollier, you might say. 

Instead, the holidays tend to bring out the worst in people. 

Why is it often easier to be nice to a stranger (or a dog) than someone you deal with regularly? Emotional baggage is likely the answer. Things like anger, resentment, pain, fear, uncertainty, and doubt are inhibitors that can affect how we interact with others. Frustratingly, our challenges often stem directly from what we bring to each situation ourselves.

It reminded me of one of the earliest videos I shot almost 10 years ago. It highlights the importance of allowing energy to flow freely, enabling individuals to remain focused and resilient in the face of challenges. It doesn't matter what happens ... what matters is what you choose to focus on, make it mean, and choose to do.

 

Sometimes, things don't seem to go well. Despite the annoying evidence to the contrary, it's probably not them ... Which means it is probably you (or at least what you focus on). 

The antidote to negative situations is simple – focus on your progress and the reasons behind your efforts.

The recipe for success (and happiness this holiday season) isn't eggnog ... it is to choose to let energy flow and to have an unrelenting focus on your bigger future.

Bring on 2025!

Thoughts From a New Beginning

My son Zach got married this weekend. 

Watching how thoughtfully and carefully they planned the wedding to keep it intimate and meaningful was heartwarming.

The wedding was for them, with parents and siblings as the only guests. They did it at the location of their first date, had their favorite desserts, and wore non-traditional outfits. I believe they will have a party in the spring.

A wedding is a significant life event. So, I’m sharing a few of the thoughts it triggered.

Since they were born, I have been struck by how similar and different my two sons have been. My older son, Ben, is very analytical and yet surprisingly heart-centered, while Zach is very emotionally-centered and yet very intelligent. That slight difference in their center of gravity has been impactful. Ben has always been a “less is more” kind of guy, while Zach has always been a “more is more” kind of guy.

Nature is funny ... and I believe that how you do something is how you tend to do almost everything. For example, Ben always had a plan — yet, Zach was different ... until he fell in love with rugby, and everything changed. I saw him approach fitness, health, schedules, time, and almost everything differently. That exposes an interesting truth - You don’t tend to win races you don’t want to win. Something deeper has to inspire the effort. When you find something deeper, the rest becomes easier. Even in his 30s, rugby is still his passion. 

As a parent, a small part of me wished that Zach’s focus on rugby had gone to school or business or something ... But that’s not how I really felt. As a father, I knew that once I saw that he knew how to focus on what he wanted, he could focus on anything he wanted. Because once he knew how to do it for one thing, he could do it for anything.

It was like that for me when I met Jennifer – everything changed. I knew so fast. So, when I saw how everything changed for Zach when he met Sloane, I knew the same thing happened.

Here's how I knew he really loved her. Zach’s favorite food groups are cheese fries, bacon, and extra grease. So, his falling in love with a gluten-free vegan (and not only tolerating it – but defending it) showed me something massively important. For the record, he’s been protective and focused on Sloane ever since. And because of that, I know how this turns out.

I want to say how proud I am of Zachary and how happy I am for both of them as we welcome Sloane to the family.

Her love has brought out the best in Zach, and we can’t wait to see the life they’ll build together.

That reminds me of something I thought about several times during the wedding ... it is that love is both a noun and a verb. It’s a thing (a state, a feeling, or even a target) … but it’s also something that you can choose, commit to, and do. The noun without the verb is frustrating - because you couldn’t move towards it and would have to get lucky to experience it. But the verb without the noun would be exhausting because you’d always be searching without finding or driving toward something that you don’t arrive at. This perspective on love as both a state and an action resonates as a natural truth for me. It is like inhaling and exhaling ... one without the other is futile.