Casinos only offer to play games that they expect to win. In contrast, gambling customers play even though they know the odds are against them.
Why does this happen? The rush of a win, the chance of a big win, and random reinforcement are common factors that incent people to play lotto, go to a casino, or try to trade.
Chemicals like adrenaline and dopamine play a part as well. Even in a sea of losses, your body can't help but crave the chemical reward of even a small win,
The "House" knows this and engineers an experience that takes advantage of it.
In the case of casinos, every detail is meticulously crafted to extract you from your money - from carpet patterns to the labyrinthian layouts, the music, the lights and even the games themselves.
Most people aren't gamblers ... the fear of losing big inhibits them. However, when people were instructed to "think like a trader," they showed considerably less risk-aversion when gambling.
The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics.
When you almost get it right - when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, when you just mistime a trade to get a big win - you're more likely to play longer, and place bigger bets ... because you're "so close".
It's human nature to want to feel in control.
This is why you find a lot of superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing ... if you throw the dice in this particular way ... if you check your holdings at this time every day ... you have control.
There is a big difference between causation and correlation.
It is not hard to imagine that the majority of a trader's activities do little to create a real and lasting edge.
Skill vs. Luck
There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.
In a casino, poker and blackjack are considered games of skill. In contrast, slot machines are considered a game of chance.
In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique.
Much of what we do is to figure out how to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.
In trading, "Alpha" is the measure of excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.
We believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance ... Meaning much of what we do is figure out what to ignore or avoid so that the majority of the games we play are games of skill rather than games of chance.
“The addict only needs to change one thing… their whole damn life.”— Ben Hill, Ph.D.
In one way, shape, or form, we’re all prone to some form of addiction or bad habit. Whether it’s food, adrenaline, TV, we all have a psychological or physiological “need” for something that we could probably afford less of.
Every second you spend or decision you make trying to fight that compulsion depletes your ability to say “no” to it the next time. If you want to permanently change your relationship with something ... willpower, alone, may not get you there.
That same principle applies to pursuing success or personal progress. The trick is recognizing that you can create conditions that make your success much more likely.
Benjamin Hardy is a Ph.D. candidate in Organizational Psychology, a bestselling author of "Willpower Doesn’t Work", a top writer on Medium, and a friend from Genius Network.
I spoke with him about his new book, the idea that “willpower doesn’t work” and what the lessons taught in his book can do for you or your organization. Check it out.
No matter how much internal resolve you have, changing the story you tell yourself and the environment you create for yourself, are reliable ways to make meaningful and lasting change.
Once you’ve found what you really want and created the environment to support it – willpower is secondary.
It's increasingly apparent that privacy in today's digital age is a farce.
If you want to actually stop Google from tracking location (short of selling all of your material possessions and living off the grid) turn off your device information, location history and web activity here. This will depersonalize your searches as well - so your ads will (hopefully) not know your deepest darkest secrets anymore.
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
The Psychology Behind Gambling (and Everyday Traders)
Vegas and Wall Street share a lot in common.
Over Time ... The House Wins
Casinos only offer to play games that they expect to win. In contrast, gambling customers play even though they know the odds are against them.
Why does this happen? The rush of a win, the chance of a big win, and random reinforcement are common factors that incent people to play lotto, go to a casino, or try to trade.
Chemicals like adrenaline and dopamine play a part as well. Even in a sea of losses, your body can't help but crave the chemical reward of even a small win,
The "House" knows this and engineers an experience that takes advantage of it.
In the case of casinos, every detail is meticulously crafted to extract you from your money - from carpet patterns to the labyrinthian layouts, the music, the lights and even the games themselves.
Here is an infographic that lays it out for you.
Most people aren't gamblers ... the fear of losing big inhibits them. However, when people were instructed to "think like a trader," they showed considerably less risk-aversion when gambling.
The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics.
When you almost get it right - when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, when you just mistime a trade to get a big win - you're more likely to play longer, and place bigger bets ... because you're "so close".
It's human nature to want to feel in control.
This is why you find a lot of superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing ... if you throw the dice in this particular way ... if you check your holdings at this time every day ... you have control.
There is a big difference between causation and correlation.
It is not hard to imagine that the majority of a trader's activities do little to create a real and lasting edge.
Skill vs. Luck
There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.
In a casino, poker and blackjack are considered games of skill. In contrast, slot machines are considered a game of chance.
In trading, predicting markets is much different than using math and statistics to measure the performance of a technique.
Much of what we do is to figure out how to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.
In trading, "Alpha" is the measure of excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.
We believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance ... Meaning much of what we do is figure out what to ignore or avoid so that the majority of the games we play are games of skill rather than games of chance.
Are you playing the right game?
Posted at 07:05 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Games, Healthy Lifestyle, Ideas, Market Commentary, Personal Development, Science, Sports, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (0)
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