Capitalogix

An Epic Time-Lapse Map of Europe and the Middle East Over the Past 1,000 Years

The temporary nature of things is once again highlighted as Britain considers leaving the European Union.

Here is a fascinating look at a thousand years of history (via border changes).  Watch as the empires, nations, kingdoms, armies and republics come-and-go in fast forward.

   

 

via YouTube.

For a different look, click here or here.

Whether through geo-politics or military actions ... Change appears to be the only constant.

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Oh well, the hour we lost this weekend was the one I planned to use to go to the gym.  Maybe next year?.

 

via Someecards.com.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Tomorrow's Advance Man. Marc Andreessen’s plan to win the future. (NewYorker)
• Want Your Children to Survive the Future? Send Them to Art School. (Medium)
• Uber Teams Up with Airbus for On-Demand Helicopter Service. (TPG)
• The 'Hidden Airport' Travel Hack Could Save You As Much As 80% On Flights. (TI)
• A Spanish man didn’t report to work for six years, and no one noticed until he won an award. (National Post)

 

Trading Links:

• The Exchanges Are Eating Your Returns. (Bloomberg)
• Artificial Intelligence Market Worth 5.05 Billion USD by 2020. (MarketWatch)
• What Does This Mean?  IBM Revenue Fell for 15th Straight Quarter. (Fox)
• Why Are Corporations Hoarding Trillions? (New York Times)
• China's $34 Trillion Experiment Is Blowing Up - Kyle Bass. (ValueWalk)

After a Quick Rally, The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at Resistance

Impressive rally ... Now what?

Here is a weekly chart of the DJIA.  Price has rallied to the overhead support/resistance level and its 40-week moving average (which is also its 200-day moving average).

 

via StockCharts.

 

Meanwhile, according to StockCharts, the percent of NYSE stocks trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages is soaring. Currently, 73% are above their 50-day lines (which is close to the level hit during the November peak) ... and 34% are above their 50-day lines. That reflects the short-term improvement gained during the last month in major stock indexes.

What happens here, at the resistance barrier, will help determine if the short-term rally has more staying power.

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

A reminder ... Every morning you have two choices: continue to sleep with your dreams, or wake up and chase them.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Michael Bloomberg Could Make Donald Trump President. (Slate)
• Why People Are Confused About What Experts Really Think. (NYTimes)
• "Memory Hackers" Shows The Future Of Memory Manipulation. (FastCo)
• Malcolm Gladwell: This Is How You Develop True Expertise. (Inc)
• Artificial Intelligence. Computers are being taught to learn, reason and recognize emotions. In these talks, look for insights -- as well as warnings. (TED Playlist)

Trading Links:

• VC Expects that Most Companies Will Eventually Pay an Amazon 'Tax'. (Insider)
• The Hottest A.I. Companies Making Waves Across Industries. (LTP)
• U.S. Budget Deficit Falls to Lowest Level Since August 2008. (WSJ)
• How Soon We Forget: Investors Lost $1.78 Trillion In Year's First Six Weeks. (Time)
• A Financial Road Map For 2016: "The Potential For Chaotic Fluctuations Is Greater Than Ever". (ZeroHedge)

Is Trump the Inevitable GOP Nominee?

Trump at once seems like the inevitable GOP nominee and an impossible one.

He is "winning, winning, winning the country" ... while the media is freaking out.

Can he still be stopped?  Probably not.

Interesting one-minute video.

 

Is Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee? by NowThis 

 

Death & Taxes 2016 - A Visual Guide to Where Your Federal Tax Dollars Go

This year, the Federal Budget is over a trillion dollars.  Where does the money go? 

To answer this, just take a look at this year's 'Death and Taxes' infographic.

The FY2016 budget chart contains over 500 departments, agencies, programs (and just about everything else the government can spend money on).

It is a mind-blowing record of government spending.  Click here to see a much bigger version. 

 

 

The poster is six square feet. You can get it here.

Trading After Groundhog Day

On Groundhog Day, Bespoke put out these charts and comments (with minor edits).

 

When Punxsutawney Phil Speaks, People Listen

 

Forget about EF Hutton, or for that matter Warren Buffett.  If you really want to know where stock prices are going and can’t wait until the Super Bowl, look no further than the Oracle of Punxsutawney, Phil the groundhog!  Given his ‘perfect’ record at predicting the weather, we wanted to check up on the groundhog’s ability to predict the direction of the stock market.

Going back to 1944, when Groundhog Day resumed following a brief pause during World War II, Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow on the morning of February 2nd 59 times and seen no shadow just 13 times.  The table and chart below summarize the performance of the S&P 500 from Groundhog Day through the first day of Spring in each year based on whether or not Phil sees his shadow or not. (Disclaimer: If you are reading and still think this post is meant in any way to be taken seriously, it is not.)

  

 

 

On years when Phil sees his shadow, it not only means we are in for a longer winter but also sub-par stock returns.  In the 59 years where Phil has seen his shadow, indicating a long winter is in store, the S&P 500’s median return from that day up until the first day of spring has been a gain of 0.54% with gains 54% of the time.  Those returns don’t sound so bad, but they are actually below average.  That’s because in the thirteen years where Phil did not see his shadow the S&P 500 saw a median gain of 3.01% with positive returns more than three-quarters of the time.  

As shown in the lower chart, there are only three years (1997, 2007, and 2011) since 1944 than Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow and the S&P 500 declined from Groundhog Day through the first day of spring.  Of those three years, the worst decline was 2.17%.  With the S&P 500 already down 1.6% today, the S&P 500 has some digging out to do if it is going to continue its trend of winning ways following those days when the groundhog doesn’t see his shadow.  It’s so easy a groundhog can do it!

 

Right ... so, you know that was poo poo de moo moo. Punxsutawney Phill doesn't predict markets.

This year started with an 11 % drop.  While that is the steepest drop to start a year,  I'm pretty sure that doesn't mean much either.  With similar numbers, the market ultimately went down 32 % in 2008 -- and up 33 % in 2009.

Markets go up - and markets go down.  It's not what happens, it's what you do that matters.

Jimmy Kimmel Ghostwrote a Children's Book for Donald Trump Titled 'Winners Aren't Losers'

Donald Trump has accomplished a lot in his career.  

He built a real estate empire and wrote 12 books -- but, there is something he hasn't done.

 

Appearing on Jimmy Kimmel Live! recently, Trump admitted he wanted to give authoring a kids' book a try, but hadn't yet.  Fortunately, host Jimmy Kimmel revealed he ghostwrote one for the presidential hopeful.

 

Authored and illustrated in the style of a Dr. Seuss book, Winners Aren't Losers tells the story of an inspiring Trump trying to direct children and animals to be winners instead of—you guessed it—losers.

 

 

 

 

Jimmy Kimmel via YouTube.

 

"Winners aren't losers. They're winners—like me! A loser's a loser. Which one will you be?" Kimmel read from the book. "Winners do deals and winners get rich, while sad little losers just sit there and bitch."

 

"This should be a big seller," Trump joked.

 

Here is the full text of the 'book'.

 

The Financial Race Towards the Presidency

The race for the White House is always a race for funds. Last week's Iowa caucus sheds a spotlight on the correlation of fund-raising success and success at the polls.

This chart ranks possible US presidential candidates by the amount of funding they had raised by the end of 2015.

 

via Statista.

 

While he didn’t come out on top in the Iowa Caucus, Donald Trump surely has proven he knows how to make the biggest bang for the buck. While he isn’t even in the top ten of the best funded candidates (of both parties) ... He still achieved a second place showing in the Republican candidates in Iowa.

The Republican winner was Ted Cruz, who is the second best funded in the GOP camp.  

In contrast, while Jeb Bush is the best funded Republican candidate (second overall after Democrat Hillary Clinton), he only managed a sixth place finish against the Republicans in the Iowa caucus.

While Cruz has a comfortable lead over Trump in the caucus in the Republican camp, Democratic hopeful Clinton has the most money of all candidates, democratic and overall. She virtually tied with second best funded Democrat Bernie Sanders in the caucus, who’s only in fifth place of the best funded overall.

Is a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity Drying-Up?

People are afraid abandoned 'zombie ships' are an early sign of global economic collapse.

 

 Image Credit: Sometimes Interesting. 

 

If you are looking for insight into global supply and demand trends, the Baltic Dry Index is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It offers a real-time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand, as well as the supply of ships available to move this type of cargo.

Unfortunately, it is sinking faster than a ship.

 

 via StockCharts.com

The low is troubling because this Index is often interpreted as a reliable indicator of demand.

The Index moved higher from 2003 to 2008. Since then, we have seen a series of lower highs and lower lows (in other words, it has been trending downwards since then).

 

The low is troubling because this Index is often interpreted as a reliable indicator of demand.

The Index moved higher from 2003 to 2008. Since then, we have seen a series of lower highs and lower lows (in other words, it has been trending downwards since then).