Capitalogix

The Past Ten Years - Apple Then and Now

Apple reported its earnings this week.  Over the past 12 months, they made a net profit of more than $53 billion.

That is significant, not just because it is a lot ... It also is more than any other company has ever made in a single year.  

The previous record of $45.2 billion was set by ExxonMobil in 2008.

As the chart illustrates, the company’s profits have increased more than 40-fold since 2005, helping Apple to become the biggest brand and the most valuable company on the planet.

via Statista. 

 

Talk about compounding edges!

By the way, recently, Steve Ballmer said: Saving Apple in 1997 was the 'Craziest Thing' Microsoft ever did.

Map Showing the Aging of the World's Population

It isn't hard to predict the number of 18-year-olds in 2030.  You start by counting the 3-year-olds today.

Likewise, certain huge macro-economic forces are easy to see.

The chart below shows the aging of the World's population.  The small image at the top shows the current snapshot.  The larger image shows the world in 2050.

 

 

via BofAML.

Countries with a low birth to death ratio will continue to get older and suffer the consequences of attempting to pay for the care of the many through the efforts of the few.

Based on this, you can start to get a sense of where the more promising emerging markets will come from.

Perhaps Investors Aren't as Scared as They Should Be?

As we close the books on September, it's a good time to review some weekly charts.

The VIX is regarded as the "Fear Index" by many.  Recently, it screamed "Fear" (jumping to levels not seen since the 2008 crash.

However, the alert was short-lived.  Things have calmed down quickly (too quickly?).

 

via stockcharts.com.

Given where we are, perhaps the lack of fear is a sign of potential danger?

The market has been in the midst of a solid correction for the past six weeks; but, so far, the broad stock market indices are testing and holding key levels.

On the other hand, it won't take much to push things over the line -- and trigger a lot of selling.

Take a look at the S&P 500 weekly chart, below, which is currently holding at the bullish up-trend support line. Many traders will identify this area as a dividing line between a correction within a continuing bull market and a bear market.

 

Chart via The Informed Trader, courtesy of Stockcharts.com.

 

Viewed another way, this is where Bulls will likely try to defend the up-trend. 

So, will the market attract buyers ... or sellers?

Personally, I expect volatility.  

Why?  

Because markets exist to trade.  And it tends to generate those trades by 'shaking' the weak holders.  

A big move up, here, will trigger a lot of buying (and short-covering by weak bears).  

While a big move down will trigger a lot of selling (as Bulls fear the long-anticipated next leg down).

With the election in front of us, this is likely the line-in-the-sand to watch.

It wouldn't be surprising if the battle raged here (for a bit) before resolving.

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

You be the judge ... Here is a Trump - Who Wore It Better Challenge.

 

 

Winning!

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting. 

 

Lighter Links:

• The State of Artificial Intelligence in Six Visuals. (Medium)
• How Will Artificial Intelligence Affect Religion In Our Lifetime? (DailyDot)
• Turns Out Sarcastic People Really Are Better at Everything. (Esquire)
• Hamas Arrested a Dolphin Accused of Being an Israeli Spy. (The Week)
• The Married Kama Sutra ... Funny. (The New Yorker)

 

Trading Links:

• America's Richest Hedge Fund Managers - Forbes. (Forbes)
• Smart Minds in FinTech Discuss How Wall Street Is Going to Change. (BI)
• Yale to Be Paid Interest on Dutch Water Authority Bond From 1648. (Bloomberg)
• Goldman Calls On Fed to Launch Another Q.E. Plan. (MarketWatch)
• The "Great Accumulation" Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World's Central Banks Has Arrived. (ZeroHedge)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

The new 'Female Viagra' may have side-effects ... but not headaches.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The 50 Smartest Companies 2015 - from Tesla to Uber. (MIT Tech Review)
• Big Data and Predictive Analytics: Hope or Hype? (HiddenBrains)
• Ray Kurzweil's Mind-Boggling Predictions for the Next 25 Years. (Singularity)
• Can We Design Trust Between Humans and Artificial Intelligence? (FastCo)
• One-Armed Robot Beats Samurai In Sword Competition. (PopSci)

 

Trading Links:

• Data Analytics Technology: The New Game Changer. (Forbes)
• Hackers Target Hedge Funds to Manipulate Trading Algorithms. (SCM)
• Insights from a Founding Father of Behavioral Finance. (USAT)
• Google's Latest Project: Reinventing Cities. (LATimes)
• The Most Important Insights from Mary Meeker’s 2015 Internet Trends Report. (TechCrunch)

Last Quarter, the iPhone Generated More Revenue than Google, eBay & Facebook Combined

Did you buy the new iPhone?

The scope and scale of Apple's iPhone business creates an amazing competitive advantage.

It is Apple’s largest cash cow ... and accounted for 69 percent of the company’s revenue in the 2014 holiday quarter.

But how big is BIG?  This chart compares Apple's iPhone revenue (by itself) to the total revenue of other tech companies in the most recently reported fiscal quarter.

 

via Statista.

 

For context, in the past Quarter, Apple generated more revenue selling iPhones than Google, eBay and Facebook did combined.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

The Bank of China bought billboards advertising the RMB as the 'New Choice" for the World's Reserve Currency.

 

 

This one is just outside the airport in Bangkok Thailand.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Persistence, Not Patience, Key To Entrepreneurship. (Mashable)
• 20 Inspirational Stephen Hawking Quotes. (Lifehack)
• 600 Years Of Global War & Peace [Chart]. (ZeroHedge)
• Why Artificial Intelligence Will Not Obliterate Humanity. (PopSci)
• OneGo Will Offer Unlimited West Coast Flights for $1,500 a Month. (TechCrunch)

 

Trading Links:

• China’s Yuan Has ‘Long March’ To Reserve-Currency Status. (Marketwatch)
• Why China Devalues Its Currency | Stratfor. (Stratfor)
• ETFs Have Overtaken Hedge Funds as an Investment Vehicle. (Economist)
• GOLDMAN: ETF Assets Will Double To $6 Trillion by 2020. (BI)
• Exponential Finance: Ray Kurzweil Stresses Humanity’s ‘Moral Imperative' in Developing Artificial Intelligence. (Singularity Hub)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

The six-year bull market has been getting carved up lately.

 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• 100 Motivational Quotes from Successful Entrepreneurs. (FN)
• Siri, How Many Questions Do You Answer Per Minute? (USAToday)
• Will You Fall in Love With Your Sex Robot? (DisInfo)
• We're Doomed: Robots Can Now Learn To Adapt To Injuries. (FC)
• Cowboys to Use Virtual Reality to Help Players in Film Study. (ESPN)

 

 

Trading Links:

• Scientists Show Future Events Decide What Happens in the Past. (SN)
• Experimenting With Virtual Reality, Financial Services Enter The Matrix. (TC)
• Real Madrid, Dallas Cowboys Top Forbes Sport Value List. (Sports)
• George Soros Says America Needs To Make Friends With China. (Insider)
• China's Building the Most Extensive Global Commercial-Military Empire In History. (Qz)

 

Here is a Map Showing Countries Scaled Based on the Size of Their Stock Markets

There has been a lot of news lately about global markets ... and how something that happens in one affects the others.

This chart is interesting because it puts the world's markets in a different perspective.

It shows the world according to free-float equity market capitalization in billions of dollars measured by the MSCI. 

   

 

From BofAML’s Transforming World Atlas. 

The US, with a market cap of $19.8 trillion, is the biggest and represents 52% of the world's market cap. Japan is in second place at $3 trillion, followed by the UK at $2.7 trillion, and then France at $1.3 trillion.

Notably, Hong Kong's market cap is nearly the same size of China (both of which are significantly smaller than countries like the US and Japan). 

Meanwhile, Russia, which has a bigger surface area than Pluto, is about the same size as Finland in terms of market cap.

Interesting.

Putting This Market Decline in Perspective

How bad was the recent decline?  It was the biggest since 2011.

To put it in better perspective, here is a chart (based on daily closes) showing significant S&P 500 Index declines since the all-time high prior to the 2008 Bear Market.

The area with the pink background highlights the "Bear Market" area beyond the 20% decline mark.

    

via Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives.

 

Buy and Hold investors must stomach significant drawdowns to get their returns — even in 'good' years.

The chart below shows S&P 500 intra-year declines compared with calendar year returns. The bars represent year-end returns since 1980, while the reddish dots mark each year's market low.

 

 

via JPMorgan Guide to the Markets.

 

According to Business Insider, here are the historical frequencies of certain market correction levels.

Since 1900, we've seen:

• 5% market corrections: 3x per year.
• 10% market corrections: Once per year.
• 20% market corrections: Once every 3.5 years.

The point is that 10-15% pull-backs are normal (and perhaps even healthy) for the market.

Interesting.