Capitalogix

Why Are The Patriots So Good?

Some things speak for themselves.

The Patriots just came back from a 25-point second-half deficit to win the Super Bowl.

There is a difference between 'luck' and 'skill'.

Nonetheless ... luck favors the prepared.

And, in life as in sports, hard work beats talent, when talent fails to work hard.

The Patriots, under Bill Belichick, epitomize that. 

Belichick has been a coach in 10 of 51 Super Bowls (seven of them with Tom Brady).

When you see this picture from the 2000 NFL Combine, it's hard to believe that Tom Brady would be a 3-time Superbowl MVP taking the Patriots to their 5th under his reign.

 

via CBS Sports.

It didn't happen by accident.

The Patriots are a well-oiled machine, and it's not because their players are better than the rest.  

Keep in mind, the NFL is a league at the top of the food chain (their athletes are the best of the best).  Moreover, the NFL actively creates rules designed to level the playing field and create parity.

So, it is hard to create a team that 'can't be beaten' –  When it happens, it happens because of culture, coaching, and process.  Ultimately, somehow, winners find a way to win. 

Bill isn't known as the friendliest (and he's certainly not known for dishing out praise) – but he is known for discipline (and lauding hard work when it's deserved). 

More importantly, Belichick created a framework of success that isn't reliant on the individual - and it is that which allows the individual to shine. 

Frameworks create the structure that allows, focus, specialty, and the freedom to improvise.

The System is the 'system'; but, within it, you can measure what works, who contributes, and use it to identify the best things to try next.

Win, lose, or draw ... some things speak for themselves.

NFL - Bad Lip Reading

Hope you have enjoyed Super Bowl weekend so far.

Here is an oldy, but goodie.

It is kind of the opposite of one of those old Kung Fu movies where the dubbed words you hear aren't synched with the mouth movement. 

Here it looks like they are saying what you hear ... it's just that someone changed the words.  You could call it "So THAT'S what they were saying ..."

 This video works for the same reason trading often doesn't ... Humans are great at finding patterns (even when there isn't really a pattern to find).

Regardless, this was fun (and it's gotten almost 70 million views on YouTube).

 

 

Recently, they also did one with clips from Trump's Inauguration.  

Pretty funny. 

The Dow Just Broke 20,000

In 2016, we saw some decent pull-backs and volatility.

Then Donald Trump was elected President.  

On November 22nd, the Dow reached 19,000 ... and in only 42 days, it's broken 20,000. That's the second-fastest rise ever.

Coincidence?

 

 via WSJ

With 30 components providing point value ... the 5 "heavyweights" this year are: Boeing, IBM, 3m, United Healthcare and Home Depot.

Are the markets  responding to Trump's consistency with his campaign messages?  Just happy to have some hope in change?

So, as the presidency continues, will the trend keep going up?

What do you think?

 

Related articles

Dow hits 20000 on revived Trump rally, earnings

The internet is fact-checking Trump's first UK interview

The Inauguration of Donald Trump by Vice News

Market Confidence Remains High Despite Glitch

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - January 29th, 2017

With the explosion of Alternative Facts and Fake News ... It's important to remember to verify what you read. 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Why Each Side of the Partisan Divide Thinks the Other is Living in an Alternate Reality. (The Conversation)
• Check out this Automated Resume Builder (It Could Help Former President Obama Get a Job). (Inc)
• Cybersecurity is Everybody’s Business. (Burrus)
• 25 CEO’s List 20 Things that Keep Them up at Night. (LeadershipFreak)
• Japanese Toilet Industry Agrees to Standardize Complex Bidet Controls. (TheVerge)

 

 

Trading Links:

• What Does the World Expect of a Trump Presidency? (The Conversation)
• The SEC's Reaction to High Frequency Trading. (QuantNews)
• US Jobless Claims down to 1970S Levels at 234,000 - about as Good as It Gets. (Forbes)
• SpaceX’s Leaked Finances Show Elon Musk is Betting Big on Satellite Internet. (Quartz)
• Fed's Yellen Says She's Upbeat about Short-term Economic Outlook. (Reuters)

Do We Still Need Humans?

In my office, we use a lot of what seems like "futuristic" artificial intelligence approaches to understanding financial markets. Most of my team are technical or data-science specialists that develop and drive the systems that create our systems. 

Pretty soon, we may start to question where using humans is still smart or cost-effective. 

In the meantime, I'm fascinated by what is becoming possible ... and how, even when the A.I. is little more than an elegant use of brute force, incredible results are becoming commonplace.

MIT has been looking at work by many different organizations - including Google Brain - who are working on AI that can develop machine learning software. 

In many cases, the results coming from machines coding other machines are matching or exceeding work done by humans. 

 As a point of reference, virtually all of our training techniques were developed or created by an A.I. process.

AI creating AI has many benefits.

But, at this point in time, it still requires lots of human input and insight. 

I suspect that won't be true for long.

  When that is true, what jobs will humans be doing?

 I have some thoughts, but I'd love to hear yours.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - January 20th, 2017

With technology becoming more ubiquitous ... perhaps Tweeting shouldn't be ... 

  

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Ringling Bros. Circus to Close after 146 Years. (Washington Post)
• Why Your Brain Makes New Year's Resolutions Impossible to Keep. (Popular Science)
• When the Picky Eater is a Grown-Up. (New York Times)
• Your Dog Knows Exactly What You’re Saying. (National Geographic)
• Nestle Claims a Scientific Breakthrough and Chocolate Will Never Be the Same Again. (Inc)

Trading Links:

• The End of Cloud Computing. (A16z)
• Rethinking Global Finance. (Wired)
• All World Maps Lie. So Which One Should We Use? (FastCoD)
• Why Rich People Set up Trust Funds for Their Pets. (Flipboard)
• Apple Sells Nearly 400 IPhones Per Minute, and Other Insane Stats. (Insider)

Millenials: Can't Live With 'Em ... And Can't Kill 'Em Either

Simon Sinek is a best-selling author (Start With Why), and gave a Ted Talk on how great leaders inspire action (that got 30 million views). 

Recently, in an interview with Tom Bilyeu (co-founder of Quest Nutrition), he addresses the issue of  Millennials – and why they seem lazy and unfocused.

 

 

 

Sinek points to four characteristics that help "create" this issue:

• Parenting,
• Technology,
• Impatience, and
• Environment.

Sinek suggests that this generation is a product of failed parenting strategies ... being told they're special without effort, being told they can have anything they want, and being handed trophies for showing up.

Next, add technology to the mix.

Before millennials, interaction happened in person much more frequently ... meaningful trust-based relationships were built with time and effort, and when you were at dinner with friends, or watching a movie, you were at a dinner with friends ... not on your phone.

For added irritation, next add impatience (which is a byproduct of instant gratification).  

Why wait for amusement when it's a text away?  You've got Netflix making video rental a thing of the past, Tinder making dating as easy as "swiping right" and Amazon making it so you don’t have to checkout when you go to a store.

Is it any wonder that these kids have short attention spans?

Now, put those kids in an environment where they're forced to realize you can't rush success, and you can't force meaningful relationships. 

It's a recipe that has often terminated without a happy ending.

I thought it would be fun to ask one of them, what they thought about it ...

So I asked my son, Zachary.  Here are his thoughts.

 

I was born in 1993. When I was in elementary school, I was already using a computer almost daily, and a lot of my education and entertainment was computer-centric. 

As such, I am a textbook “Millennial.”

I use Snapchat too much, I relax by playing video games, and at times I can be unacceptably lazy.

Because of that, I found this interview with Simon Sinek particularly interesting.

I’ve been lucky. My dad did a good job of forcing me to work hard, and valued my efforts more than my results.  So, while I'm constantly reminded that I'm lucky I'm not working 80 hour days (and being forced to get a haircut every week) I do feel as if I'm a step ahead of many of my peers.

I still find myself falling in to a lot of the "traps" Sinek describes – I'm reliant on social media;  I'm frustrated when my effort doesn't transfer in to immediate impact; and I struggle to not take my phone out in social situations. 

I do think the issue is bigger than millennials. It's not just our generation that takes their phones out at meetings and ignores who they're with for someone on their phone. If you pay attention I'll bet you'll notice you do it as well.

The difference, I think, is that millennials spent their formative years in this environment.

This does effect the way we see and interact with the world.

Will we ever measure up to your expectations?

Perhaps not ... because our generations approach the world the world so differently.

Nonetheless, we are still capable of great things.  We are still driven to create and pursue great things.  It's just that we are playing a different game and keeping score a little differently.

Understanding that, in and of itself, can help to close the gap.

 

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the subject, and any tips you might have for someone relatively new to the corporate world. You can e-mail me at [email protected].

Thanks.

The Internet in 1973

Here's a map of the entire "Internet" in 1973:

 

Reddit via @WorkerGnome.

Wonder what that map would look like today?

Oftentimes, a small breakthrough has awesome and immense consequences.

Onwards!

You Just Dodged a Bullet: The Holidays And Cardiac Mortality

On Christmas, I saw Rogue One with my family, and was impressed at what Disney had done to bring back the likenesses of Peter Cushing and Carrie Fisher. 

Peter Cushing played Grand Moff Tarkin, a character who they couldn't just cut from a movie featuring the Death Star so heavily (despite Cushing being dead since 1994).  In addition, the likeness of Carrie Fisher was brought back to play a young Leia.

At the time, I didn't know Carrie Fisher would be dead 2 days later, from heart attack complications.  Only a few days later, her mother, Debbie Reynolds died as well (presumably due to a broken heart).

Here is a chart showing cardiac mortality around the holidays.

  

via the American Heart Association.

Good news – if you are reading this, you are on the right side of the daisies.

Let's keep it that way!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading -- December 31st, 2016

Any bold predictions for 2017?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently.

Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Top 10 TED Talks of 2016. (YouTube)
• The Year in Pictures 2016. (Nyti)
• The 12 Key Science Moments of 2016. (TheGuardian)
• How I Process a Massive Amount Of Content. (Medium)
• The Top Jerry Jones Quotes of 2016: Ugly Babies, Jumping off Buildings and Circumcising Mosquitos. (SportsDay)

 

Trading Links:

• Who Benefits from Market Speed Bumps? The Exchanges. (New York Times)
• Where are They Now? the 12 Members of the 1896 Dow Jones Industrial Average. (BizInsider)
• It's So Hard to Get Cash in India that Some People are Ordering It Online. (Money)
• Percentage of Young Americans Living with Parents Rises to 75-Year High. (WSJ)
• Contrarian Views for 2017, Seven Dos and Don’ts for Your Portfolio, and Trump's Market Mirage (Globe and Mail)