Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - December 18th, 2016

It was cold in Dallas this weekend ... below freezing.

In contrast, it's officially colder than Mars in Canada

Don't stick your tongue on any flag poles. 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Clinton Campaign to Participate in the Wisconsin Recount — Plus Michigan and Pennsylvania If They Happen. (TW)
• America’s Top Spy Talks Snowden Leaks and Our Ominous Future. (Pocket)
• The Strange Psychology of Stress and Burnout. (Pocket)
• A New Program Judges If You’re a Criminal from Your Facial Features. (MotherBoard)
• 3 New, Must-Read Quotes from Tesla Motors, Inc. CEO Elon Musk. (FoxBusiness)

 

Trading Links:

• How Apple Lost China to Two Unknown Local Smartphone Makers. (Bloomberg)
• ‘A Rude Shock’: Indians Describe Life after Narendra Modi’s Currency Ban. (New York Times)
• NASA's New 'Intruder Alert' System Spots an Incoming Asteroid. (NPR)
• Is the Age of Asset Management Over? (FinanceMagnates)
• Immigration, World Poverty and Gumballs. (YouTube)

What My Dogs Can Teach Us About Markets

 Some dogs run fast; other dogs do tricks … my 100 pound lab, Duke's best talent is his ability to remain immobile in almost any situation (some call it "laziness" … I prefer "calm" or "even-tempered").

At the other end of the spectrum is Boo, our 20 pound mix between a Beagle and a Boston terrier. Let's just say that he has higher metabolism than Duke. 

When Boo hears a noise, he lets out an involuntary, barely audible, sound.  His body becomes rigid and his head cocks.  He becomes alert and carefully tunes his ears to their most sensitive setting, seeking any information that will help identify the "danger." And now he's waiting for the next intrusion.

Usually there are no other disturbances to follow, and the noise is cataloged and soon forgotten. His alertness level slowly subsides over the next 10-15 minutes or so.  He'll go back to napping, a little more fitfully this time … and just a little bit on edge.

Things get a little more interesting when another noise surfaces shortly after the first one.  What could once be dismissed now must be treated as a threat - and just to be safe, a threat of the highest order.  Now the appropriate response is a series of barks, nervous glances, pacing, rushing off in the direction of the noise to investigate, and a barrage of barks meant to sound more menacing than the source of the noise.  Who or what is it? How much harm can they cause? How grave is the threat?

Duke is a different story.  Nothing upsets Duke more than Boo.  The same noise that prompted Boo to become alert does nothing to Duke.  However the first time that Boo makes noise, that makes Duke alert. And the second time Boo makes noise, Duke starts vocalizing, and the third time, well now both of them start yapping and when they both start yapping, then other dogs in the neighborhood start yapping.

I realized that the same thing happens in the market with people.

In the market, it is the second noise - and subsequent noises - that creates the equivalent of the Homeland Security "Red Alert." Once an elevated level of alertness has been established, it takes a long period of relative calm for it to subside.  And when on "Red Alert" … any additional noises (for example, the responses of the other market participants) - big or small - will highlight, magnify and further validate the issue.

But, like in the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf," even legitimate threats are ignored after too many false alarms (or prolonged periods of constant alert).  So, bad news about the economy isn't as likely to get people excited after the past few weeks.

Feeling Thankful is a Weak Substitute for Being Thankful

Thanksgiving is a holiday where we're encouraged to feel thankful for all the bounties in our life – and to appreciate those around us. 

I enjoyed spending time with my kids, watching the Cowboys win, and eating too much.

  

 

That's a great start; but, feeling thankful is different that being thankful.

Think of it as the difference between passive voice and active living.  

It reminds me of an idea called "Tikkun Olam" (or – healing the world).

Even if you're not Jewish, I think we can all agree the world needs a little of that. 

For example, instead of just feeling thankful, what could you do to make the life of someone around you better?  Likewise, how can you let others know that you're thankful for them?

Transformational change is often easier than incremental change (because you don't have to drag the past forward).

So, what can you do that would trigger 10X results?   Will you?

My Son Is Disgusting ...

This Thanksgiving, my son Zach made a stupid bet with himself – that he could gain 10 pounds in one day.

His mom and I both tried to tell him not to do it;  but we forgot a golden rule: Never tell a Getson they can't do something. 

The image speaks for itself.

  

 

He gained over 13 pounds.

Even considering the weight normally gained on a Thanksgiving, that's "disgusticating" (worthy of a made-up word).

Hope you enjoyed your holiday too!

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - November 20th, 2016

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• The Myths Democrats Swallowed that Cost Them the Presidential Election. (NW)
• You Can Have Emotions You Don’t Feel. (Nautil)
• Dalai Lama: Behind Our Anxiety, the Fear of Being Unneeded. (NYTimes)
• For the 4th Time in American History, the President-Elect Lost the Popular Vote. (LATimes)
• Dear Democrats, Read this If You Do Not Understand Why Trump Won. (Medium)

Trading Links:

• Clinton Lost the Economic Argument. (Slate)
• Peter Thiel Joins Donald Trump’s Transition Team. (TheVerge)
• How the Market Responded to Trump's Win Shows Wall St. Learned a Fundamental Lesson. (BI)
• Here’s How the Fed and the ECB Will React to Trump’s Victory. (Fortune)
• Hedge Funds Run by Trump Advisors Made the Most Money off His Election Win. (FB)

Periodic Table of Alternative Investments

As Trump's Presidency starts, I thought it made sense to get an overview of alternative investment options.

 

 via CoInvest.

That reminded me of something else I'd seen recently ... Check out this Periodic Table of Elements that shows what they're commonly used for. 

 

via Discover

Pretty interesting – It gives you some insight into what it takes to keep the world running.

If you ask nicely, perhaps they'll name an element after you?

Donald Trump Is the President-Elect

The election was very interesting to me.   

While Hillary Clinton deftly followed the wisdom of Napoleon: “Never interfere with the enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.”   It didn't work.

I believe Trump’s success is a direct result of a broader collective dissatisfaction and negative mood trend in America.

As unlikely as the outcome was, socioeconomics explains it well.

Socionomics is the study of how social mood motivates social actions. It studies how waves of social mood regulate changes in social behavior, including changes in the economy, political preferences, financial markets and popular culture.

Last year, if you told me 2016 would be the year that: the Cubs would win the world series, a reality TV show host would be president, and Britain would leave the EU, I'd have assumed you were on drugs.

Even three months ago I would have been surprised. 

Last week, MogIA, an AI, predicted that Donald Trump would win, making it 4 for 4.  If you had been tracking the polls, that would have felt ridiculous, but computers can be more objective than you or me. 

Trump's campaign was a polarizing affair, with massive backlash from liberals, and a mainstream media which almost completely missed the momentum Trump had.

There're massive parallels between the way the media reported this campaign, and what happened with Brexit.  The media echo chamber was pro-Clinton and ended up ignoring the feelings of a large group of voters.  In Britain it was the elderly  ...  in America, it was working-class white people.

Trump won swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan in large part due to those voters feeling ignored and attacked by Clinton. Coal and Gas are their livelihoods, and efforts towards clean renewable energy could leave them jobless.

Think of all the moving pieces that had to align for Trump to get this far. Look at the candidates in the Republican primary, look at what happened with the Democratic primary, and look at voter turnout:

via Reddit

If "Did Not Vote" was a candidate, they would have won by a landslide. 

But, people did vote – and the result is change.

So, what do you think the effect will be on America and our stock market, long term under Trump?

 

via Finviz

 

Leading into the final days of the election, you can see a steep drop in markets. Uncertainty often has that effect on a market, but since Trump's election, there's been a rebound.

In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was able to set an all-time high.

As well, Putin has expressed interest in restoring ties with the U.S.   It will be interesting to see the effects of this on the geopolitical environment. 

If there's anything to learn from this experience, it's that trying to time the market is dangerous, and that ignoring dissidents makes you out of touch and vulnerable. 

On a lighter note, here's the President-elect, Donald Trump, wrestling at Wrestlemania 23. He's a regular Ronald Reagan.

 

 

 

Related articles

Donald Trump is the oldest president elected in US history

Peter Thiel on Trump's win: 'He has an awesomely difficult task'

The reactions to Donald Trump's outrageous 2016 speech are absolutely golden

S&P 500 at Decision Zone

As the country enters its decision zone, the S&P 500 Index is at one too.

Here is a chart that shows we are at a major support-resistance zone.

 

via StockCharts.com.

 

We just saw a long string of down days. U.S. stocks just posted their longest slide since 1980 (nine straight days).

Regardless of what happens here, I expect volatility.

What about you?

Electoral Map Projection Cartoons [Humor]

Well, the Election Season is almost over!

 

via Time Magazine. 

It has been a crazy last few weeks.  Who do you think will win?

More importantly, what do you expect to happen?

 

Pic

Clown Hysteria: 2016 in a Nutshell

This summer, South Carolinians started seeing menacing clowns in the woods.

As a response to clown hysteria,Target pulled clown masks from shelves , McDonalds scaled down use of Ronald McDonald, and people everywhere have been in a fervor.

Not everyone has been affected negatively though ... Surprisingly (to me), Pornhub has seen a massive increase in clown related searches. 

 

via TNW

There you have it ... hard data.

2016 continues to surprise ... Celebrities dying, phones exploding, the election, and this.

It will be interesting to see how 2016 ends, and what the future brings.

The world changes, but human nature remains relatively constant.