Capitalogix

Do We Still Need Humans?

In my office, we use a lot of what seems like "futuristic" artificial intelligence approaches to understanding financial markets. Most of my team are technical or data-science specialists that develop and drive the systems that create our systems. 

Pretty soon, we may start to question where using humans is still smart or cost-effective. 

In the meantime, I'm fascinated by what is becoming possible ... and how, even when the A.I. is little more than an elegant use of brute force, incredible results are becoming commonplace.

MIT has been looking at work by many different organizations - including Google Brain - who are working on AI that can develop machine learning software. 

In many cases, the results coming from machines coding other machines are matching or exceeding work done by humans. 

 As a point of reference, virtually all of our training techniques were developed or created by an A.I. process.

AI creating AI has many benefits.

But, at this point in time, it still requires lots of human input and insight. 

I suspect that won't be true for long.

  When that is true, what jobs will humans be doing?

 I have some thoughts, but I'd love to hear yours.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - January 20th, 2017

With technology becoming more ubiquitous ... perhaps Tweeting shouldn't be ... 

  

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Ringling Bros. Circus to Close after 146 Years. (Washington Post)
• Why Your Brain Makes New Year's Resolutions Impossible to Keep. (Popular Science)
• When the Picky Eater is a Grown-Up. (New York Times)
• Your Dog Knows Exactly What You’re Saying. (National Geographic)
• Nestle Claims a Scientific Breakthrough and Chocolate Will Never Be the Same Again. (Inc)

Trading Links:

• The End of Cloud Computing. (A16z)
• Rethinking Global Finance. (Wired)
• All World Maps Lie. So Which One Should We Use? (FastCoD)
• Why Rich People Set up Trust Funds for Their Pets. (Flipboard)
• Apple Sells Nearly 400 IPhones Per Minute, and Other Insane Stats. (Insider)

Millenials: Can't Live With 'Em ... And Can't Kill 'Em Either

Simon Sinek is a best-selling author (Start With Why), and gave a Ted Talk on how great leaders inspire action (that got 30 million views). 

Recently, in an interview with Tom Bilyeu (co-founder of Quest Nutrition), he addresses the issue of  Millennials – and why they seem lazy and unfocused.

 

 

 

Sinek points to four characteristics that help "create" this issue:

• Parenting,
• Technology,
• Impatience, and
• Environment.

Sinek suggests that this generation is a product of failed parenting strategies ... being told they're special without effort, being told they can have anything they want, and being handed trophies for showing up.

Next, add technology to the mix.

Before millennials, interaction happened in person much more frequently ... meaningful trust-based relationships were built with time and effort, and when you were at dinner with friends, or watching a movie, you were at a dinner with friends ... not on your phone.

For added irritation, next add impatience (which is a byproduct of instant gratification).  

Why wait for amusement when it's a text away?  You've got Netflix making video rental a thing of the past, Tinder making dating as easy as "swiping right" and Amazon making it so you don’t have to checkout when you go to a store.

Is it any wonder that these kids have short attention spans?

Now, put those kids in an environment where they're forced to realize you can't rush success, and you can't force meaningful relationships. 

It's a recipe that has often terminated without a happy ending.

I thought it would be fun to ask one of them, what they thought about it ...

So I asked my son, Zachary.  Here are his thoughts.

 

I was born in 1993. When I was in elementary school, I was already using a computer almost daily, and a lot of my education and entertainment was computer-centric. 

As such, I am a textbook “Millennial.”

I use Snapchat too much, I relax by playing video games, and at times I can be unacceptably lazy.

Because of that, I found this interview with Simon Sinek particularly interesting.

I’ve been lucky. My dad did a good job of forcing me to work hard, and valued my efforts more than my results.  So, while I'm constantly reminded that I'm lucky I'm not working 80 hour days (and being forced to get a haircut every week) I do feel as if I'm a step ahead of many of my peers.

I still find myself falling in to a lot of the "traps" Sinek describes – I'm reliant on social media;  I'm frustrated when my effort doesn't transfer in to immediate impact; and I struggle to not take my phone out in social situations. 

I do think the issue is bigger than millennials. It's not just our generation that takes their phones out at meetings and ignores who they're with for someone on their phone. If you pay attention I'll bet you'll notice you do it as well.

The difference, I think, is that millennials spent their formative years in this environment.

This does effect the way we see and interact with the world.

Will we ever measure up to your expectations?

Perhaps not ... because our generations approach the world the world so differently.

Nonetheless, we are still capable of great things.  We are still driven to create and pursue great things.  It's just that we are playing a different game and keeping score a little differently.

Understanding that, in and of itself, can help to close the gap.

 

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the subject, and any tips you might have for someone relatively new to the corporate world. You can e-mail me at [email protected].

Thanks.

The Internet in 1973

Here's a map of the entire "Internet" in 1973:

 

Reddit via @WorkerGnome.

Wonder what that map would look like today?

Oftentimes, a small breakthrough has awesome and immense consequences.

Onwards!

You Just Dodged a Bullet: The Holidays And Cardiac Mortality

On Christmas, I saw Rogue One with my family, and was impressed at what Disney had done to bring back the likenesses of Peter Cushing and Carrie Fisher. 

Peter Cushing played Grand Moff Tarkin, a character who they couldn't just cut from a movie featuring the Death Star so heavily (despite Cushing being dead since 1994).  In addition, the likeness of Carrie Fisher was brought back to play a young Leia.

At the time, I didn't know Carrie Fisher would be dead 2 days later, from heart attack complications.  Only a few days later, her mother, Debbie Reynolds died as well (presumably due to a broken heart).

Here is a chart showing cardiac mortality around the holidays.

  

via the American Heart Association.

Good news – if you are reading this, you are on the right side of the daisies.

Let's keep it that way!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading -- December 31st, 2016

Any bold predictions for 2017?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently.

Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Top 10 TED Talks of 2016. (YouTube)
• The Year in Pictures 2016. (Nyti)
• The 12 Key Science Moments of 2016. (TheGuardian)
• How I Process a Massive Amount Of Content. (Medium)
• The Top Jerry Jones Quotes of 2016: Ugly Babies, Jumping off Buildings and Circumcising Mosquitos. (SportsDay)

 

Trading Links:

• Who Benefits from Market Speed Bumps? The Exchanges. (New York Times)
• Where are They Now? the 12 Members of the 1896 Dow Jones Industrial Average. (BizInsider)
• It's So Hard to Get Cash in India that Some People are Ordering It Online. (Money)
• Percentage of Young Americans Living with Parents Rises to 75-Year High. (WSJ)
• Contrarian Views for 2017, Seven Dos and Don’ts for Your Portfolio, and Trump's Market Mirage (Globe and Mail)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - December 25th, 2016

Even Santa was hacked this year.

 

 

So, were you naughty or nice?

  

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The 10X Mindset – Life At an Exponentially Higher Level. (Medium)
• 21 Business Books Worth Reading At Least Once a Year. (Inc)
• Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030 - Stanford's 100-Year Study on AI. (AI100)
• The Magic and Power of Placebo. (FourHourWorkWeek)
• How to Create a Happy Life with Hacks from Stanford’s Famous ‘Design Your Life’ Class. (Medium)

Trading Links:

• America's next Great Metropolis is Taking Shape in Texas. (Forbes)
• “Moneyball” in Commercial Lending: from Art to Science in Pricing. (BCGPerspectives)
• The Paradox of Quant. (TheReformedBroker)
• Bill Gross Says You Should Start Buying Land and Gold. (Fortune)
• UK ‘Sailing Blindly’ into Financial Meltdown Bigger Than 2008, Think Tank Warns. (RT)

Adam Sandler Plays a New Version of His ‘The Chanukah Song’ [Video]

It is Holiday Season again ... Wow, how time flies.

To my Jewish friends, Happy Chanukah.

And, as a 'gift' to all of you, here is a new version of "The Chanukah Song," performed by comedian Adam Sandler.  It became an instant classic, in 1994, when Sandler performed it on Saturday Night Live.

   

 

via YouTube.

 

Here is the Wikipedia post about the Chanukah Song.

Here are links to the Original Video,  Version 2, and, Version 3.  

Hope you enjoy them ... and best wishes for a happy holiday season.

 

Where Does America Get It's Oil?

When people think oil, they think Middle East.  But, in reality, our biggest importer is Canada (with 3,169,ooo barrels a day imported in 2015).

The chart is a little old, but is interesting nonetheless.

 

see U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Perhaps more surprising is that America gets most of our oil internally ... with 8,796,000 barrels produced last week. 

Meanwhile, we are using approximately 19,400,000 a day.

Crazy numbers. Do you think they'll go up, or down, in 2017?

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading - December 18th, 2016

It was cold in Dallas this weekend ... below freezing.

In contrast, it's officially colder than Mars in Canada

Don't stick your tongue on any flag poles. 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Clinton Campaign to Participate in the Wisconsin Recount — Plus Michigan and Pennsylvania If They Happen. (TW)
• America’s Top Spy Talks Snowden Leaks and Our Ominous Future. (Pocket)
• The Strange Psychology of Stress and Burnout. (Pocket)
• A New Program Judges If You’re a Criminal from Your Facial Features. (MotherBoard)
• 3 New, Must-Read Quotes from Tesla Motors, Inc. CEO Elon Musk. (FoxBusiness)

 

Trading Links:

• How Apple Lost China to Two Unknown Local Smartphone Makers. (Bloomberg)
• ‘A Rude Shock’: Indians Describe Life after Narendra Modi’s Currency Ban. (New York Times)
• NASA's New 'Intruder Alert' System Spots an Incoming Asteroid. (NPR)
• Is the Age of Asset Management Over? (FinanceMagnates)
• Immigration, World Poverty and Gumballs. (YouTube)