Capitalogix

Swarm Intelligence: The Power of Ants in Hurricane Harvey

Houston, Texas is currently recovering from Hurricane Harvey (which dropped an average of 30 inches of rain, and up to 51.88 inches in Cedar Bayou). 

To put it in perspective, if they weren't evacuating, residents were told to write their name and social security numbers in sharpie on their arms. 

Nature is the great equalizer, and in a disaster like this you the fight is for survival and escape ... and not just by humans. 

Check out this "raft" of ants banding together to survive the storm.

 

NBCNews via Youtube

An ant is pretty cool. It can lift more than 50 times its weight and handle pressures up to 5000 times its weight. 

But, what makes ants interesting is what they do when there's a colony (or swarm) of them. 

An ant can only be "so" smart - their heads are tiny - but a colony of ants is a superorganism whose collective intelligence is much greater than the sum of its parts. 

Ants release pheromones from glands all over their bodies that can tell their colony an array of things. It can tell them how many ants they need to accomplish a task, it can tell them where there's food or danger, and it can even be used to relocate their whole colony to a new geography.

Clearly, it can also be used to communicate that the best way to survive danger is to create a mass of each other and allow the most possible to survive ... there's no fear or greed, only what's best for the colony. 

In a very real sense, this is where technology and trading are starting to move.  I say starting, but swarm intelligence has been an area of research in technology since the late 80's.

There are many simple applications of swarm intelligence in creating CGI crowds, telecommunication networks and more, but technological advances are drastically increasing the power and uses of swarms. 

Using the communication of various systems in order to gain real-time data from their actions and interactions will create hidden opportunities that we couldn't capitalize on previously.

We're in a golden age of innovation ... How cool is that?

 

 

NFL - Boom or Bust

Are you ready for some Football?

This chart may explain why my foreign friends prefer a different form of "football" ... It shows how many Super Bowl Championships each region has.

 

 

The regular season is about to start, and the buzz is building ... but, not all of it is good. 

Violence ... drugs ... concussions ... There has been a lot of bad press surrounding the NFL lately.

The Cowboys, alone, have somewhere between  4 to 7 players (depending on appeals) subject to miss games due to league suspensions for misconduct.  

 

The Teflon League:  NFL Revenues and Viewership Are Up.

 

Currently, the NFL is the 11th most important private company in the USA according to Fortune, and has the highest revenue of any sports league worldwide. 

via howmuch

While critics contend that something needs to be done about the various issues surrounding the NFL, it's hard to conclude that those issues affect viewership.  The NFL currently dominates attendance per game, viewership, and revenue.

In an experience economy, the NFL puts out an extraordinary product.

Long term may prove to be a different story, however.  Each year there are less high-school football players and more competition. 

I guess we'll see.

Regardless ... "How About Them Cowboys!"

 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 20th, 2017

Change is the only constant.

 

  

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• AI Beats the World's Best Gamers after Just Two Weeks of Learning. (NewAtlas)
• Russia-linked Hackers Targeted Hotel Guests across Europe: Security Firm. (Reuters)
• One Year after Rio: What's Left behind after the Flame Goes Out. (ESPN)
• Humans and Robots are on the Cusp of a Sexual Intimacy We May Never Reverse. (Quartz)
• Elon Musk Just Shared His 4-Step Plan for Mars - Colonists Should Be "Prepared to Die". (ScienceAlert)

 

Trading Links:

• Ray Dalio Urges Investors to Hedge Against Possible North Korea War. (FN)
• There Has Never, Ever, Been this Many Trades Betting on VIX. (ZH)
• Amazon Could Start Selling Event Tickets in the U.S. (TechCrunch)
• South Korea Introduces World's First Robot Tax. (ZeroHedge)
• The Number of Cash Payments Dipped 11 Per Cent Last Year - But It's Still the Most Used Payment Method. (CityAM)

Who Can You Trust? Ranking Your News Sources

Fake news this ... phony sources that ...

It is harder than ever to know what to trust.

"Noise Reduction" is important in this volatile geo-political climate.

The chart, below,  lists the least and most trusted news sources.

 

via RJI

As someone who reads a lot, this was interesting.

As a side note,  I was a little surprised to see the "Internet" on the list as source itself.  Darwin would be somewhat comforted to see that people don't trust everything they see on the internet. 

The following chart is a bit outdated (it's from 2014), but it's a good study with diverse leanings.  It presents the trust levels of various news sources by ideological group.   

 

via Journalism

Which of your news sources do you follow? Were they as trusted as you expected?

Another question worth asking yourself is "Am I getting an idea of what the other side is thinking?"  In trading, I always want to understand what the other side sees.

Finally, let me know if there are resources you think I should look at.  

You are either growing or dying.

Tick ... Tock ... The Doomsday Clock Is Ticking

With North Korea flexing their nuclear muscles and threatening to strike Guam, and Donald Trump threatening to unleash "Fire and Fury" in retaliation, alarm towards the possibility of military conflict becomes more prevalent.

Could there be a second Cold War? Or, is there really a chance someone pushes the button?

Regardless, it's just another green tick mark on the doomsday clock according to the "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" who post a yearly update to our doomsday clock (and have for 70 years). 

The Doomsday Clock is a globally-recognized model of our planet's health and safety - but who knew it was an actual thing based off of a range of factors?

Now - they want you to donate, and so there's a level of fearmongering, but they do provide some solid data on nuclear stockpiles, global temperature differences and more.

 

via The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

 

You can see their full article on this year's prediction here.

And if you're actually worried about North Korea - even if they now have the ability to hit the U.S., I think we need to be asking if they have a real desire to do so?

North Korea thrives off of the status quo - keeping people placated with propaganda and love for their glorious leader. 

Despite how it may seem sometimes - It's unlikely Kim Jong Un is trying to start a war with America. It just isn't smart.

But, we know that emotion is not often based on logic. 

Which brings us to the Markets.  For the first time ever, the S&P 500 Index has moved less than 0.3% for 13 consecutive days. 

Meaning, despite all the fervor in the media, and fear/elation surrounding the presidency, not much is happening.

Traders are essentially paralyzed with indecision ... a Cold War of sorts  -- or the calm before the storm?

Related articles

Trump just said the scariest thing of his presidency and this has gotten totally out of control

Report: North Korea is Seriously Considering Attacking Guam, Where 6,000 US Troops Are Stationed

Guam's residents 'unnerved' as island wakes up to North Korea's threats

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 4th, 2017

A poorly thought-out plan, executed perfectly, is better than a perfectly designed plan that never gets executed. 

 

via Calvin and Hobbes 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• NFL in Talks with Jerry Jones, Yankees to Combine Event, Hospitality Business. (BR)
• How to Boost Your Mental Health with Nootropics. (PickTheBrain)
• Study Says It's the Cuddling, More Than the Sex, that Makes You Happy. (Flipboard)
• Fukushima Disaster Evacuees Told to Return to Abandoned Homes. (TheGuardian)
• Someone Asked Their Amazon Echo If It Was Connected to the CIA. the Response Was Not Reassuring. (SomeEcards)

Trading Links:

• The Secret Economic Lives of Animals. (Bloomberg)
• Bill Gates Invests in Veggie Burger that Bleeds' like Beef to Feed the Masses and Save the Planet. (GeekWire)
• Alan Greenspan: the Bubble is in Bonds, Not Stocks. (Apple)
• Why the Post Office Gives Amazon Special Delivery. (Wall Street Journal)
• U.S. Farmers, Who Once Fed the World, are Overtaken by New Powers. (Wall Street Journal)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 28th, 2017

Talent is great,  but you can have a lot of success without it ...

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What is an Impact Filter? (StrategicCoach)
• Morning Routines and Strategies. (Tim)
• Why Some Smart People Make Foolish Decisions. (Digest)
• How Wellness' Became an Epidemic. (TheCut)
• Trump Reportedly Asked Legal Team about His Power to Pardon Aides, Family, Even Himself. (Slate)

Trading Links:

• Apple is Once Again the Most Profitable Company'. (iPhoneHacks)
• The Trump Administration Can't Stop China from Becoming an AI Superpower. (Wired)
• AI Could Revolutionize War as Much as Nukes. (Wired)
• Era of Biological Annihilation' is Underway, Scientists Warn. (New York Times)
• Gold and Silver are down 8% and 21% over the Trailing Year. Blame Bitcoin? (Fool)

The Experience Economy: Man Vs. Food Edition

I recently drove several hours (to the middle of nowhere) in order to try the Burger you see below.  And, yes, I know you don't have to capitalize the word "burger" ... But, in this case, it deserved it!  Take a look.

 

 

If you are curious, the restaurant is Big Jud's in Rexburg, Idaho.  And the monstrosity is Big Jud.  No, sorry, it is their "Man Versus Food Burger" (which was featured on the TV show Man V. Food).

It's got 4 pounds of meat and all the accouterments ... It's the type of burger that makes  you say "Holy Cow!"  Even the knife they give you to eat it with is scary. 

Obviously, it is not the type of burger you eat because you're hungry ... you eat it because you want the experience.

The idea of an Experience Economy isn't new.  

Rich people know it makes sense to spend money on experiences.  

And smart businesses know that it makes sense to avoid competing on a commodity, and to create something unique. For example, think about Cowboys Stadium (Click to read about the Experience).

Even millennials are spending more on experiences than on physical products.

Something to think about ... How would your business be different if you prioritized the experience?  

Just another way to win.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 23rd, 2017

Apparently, Trump has been asking lawyers if he's able to pardon himself from the Russia Investigation. No president has ever attempted it, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Clever.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Recent Poll: Hillary Clinton Is Still Less Popular Than Trump. (Slate)
• I've Read over 100 Productivity Books and Summarized the 15 Most Important Tips. (LifeHack)
• Unraveling Death in Game of Thrones. (Visual.Ly)
• Could Congress Put Horsemeat Back on the Menu in America? (Washington Post)
• 50 Companies Leading the AI Revolution, Detailed. (KDNuggets)

Trading Links:

• Robotic Hogwash! Artificial Intelligence Will Not Take over Wall Street. (WSJ)
• Cryptocurrency Market Nears 50% Decline from All-Time High. (CoinDesk)
• Mark Zuckerberg's Net Worth Soars $3.5 Billion to Record High. (Forbes)
• Jeff Bezos: the 'Obsessive' Amazon Founder and World's next Richest Man. (TheGuardian)
• Tony Robbins: How to Suffer Less (And Invest Intelligently). (TimFerriss)

AI Isn't Just Crawling Forward ... Now It's Learning To Walk

The pace of AI progress is awe inspiring.

We are entering a golden age of innovation, disruption, and new possibilities.

Here is a small example.  It's not the first time computers have learned to walk, but Google's DeepMind taught itself to walk with no human interaction.

Here is a video.

 

 

With very little structure around their knowledge, it's interesting to see how they developed movement - and where it seems distinctly artificial. 

For a more instructional video, you can check out "Flexible Muscle-Based Locomotion for Bipedal Creatures" from 2013.  It shows the generational differences between their bots as well. 

AI is getting smarter, faster.  Soon it'll have knowledge that we don't understand. And that will still only be the beginning.

Cool stuff!