Capitalogix

Why You Can't Predict March Madness

Last year, I shared some facts about March Madness. For example, the chances of a perfect bracket are  at 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. For those who don't wanna do the math that's 9.2 quintillions. 

This year, 16-seed UMBC (The Chesapeake Bay Retrievers) beat 1-seed Virginia, and left no perfect brackets after only 28 Games. 

As we came into the Elite Eight, nobody picked all eight. Almost nobody predicted No. 3 Texas Tech making it this far ... and there were 17,304,320 digital brackets this year. 

Is there any way to accurately predict something with this many potentialities and this much discord?

Different factors can feel like they provide an edge ... knowing the history of teams, their ranks, how often they've been to the Final Four, or how great their coach is ... but even that knowledge can lead you astray. You'd think an NCAA analyst might have a better shot at a perfect bracket than your grandma or co-worker, but several of the highest-ranked brackets this year were guesses. 

via ESPN

It's fun guessing when you're making bets on college basketball, but what if this is your livelihood ...

Prediction is hard ... especially about the future.

The way people fill out their brackets often mimics the way investors pick trades or allocate assets. Some use gut feel, some base their decisions on rank and past performance, and some use predictive models ... and some of us get disappointed when Duke loses.

 Apparently, humans aren't as great at prediction as we think we are. 

How Blockchain Will Eventually Disrupt Every Industry

Recently, I shared an infographic with 25 notable cryptocurrencies and restated that the support technologies for coins (specifically, blockchain and smart contracts) are more exciting than any individual currency. 

Blockchain is radically changing the future of transaction-based industries. Industry leaders are fervently evaluating and exploring blockchain to determine its potential for disruption, and for developing a long-term strategic advantage over their competitors.  

Blockchain is disruptive because of its ability to digitize, decentralize, and secure the validation of "transactions".  Everywhere there's a hand-off of information or goods, blockchain has the opportunity to improve that process. 

Imagine being able to see the entire history of a property, and know it's accurate. Imagine being able to track individual shipments globally through your supply-chain with ease. Imagine being able to enter/exit countries without the elongated passport check-ins. 

The list goes on ... Aviation, Big Pharma, Manufacturing, Finance, SaaS ... In the same way that artificial intelligence is transforming what's done by humans and what's done by machines, the blockchain is transforming security and how we transfer data. If data is the new currency, blockchain is the banking system. 

Blockchain enables transparency and accountability on a radically bigger scale. 

Here are 36 companies already using blockchain to innovate, and here's a simple infographic for some of the basic applications of blockchain in non-financial industries.

 

NewCoShift via Crowd Companies

 

I've said this before, but it's worth echoing ...  Some of what was once Impossible becomes Possible.   Some of what became Possible becomes Probable.  And, and some of what became Probable becomes Inevitable.

Blockchain is happening.  Technological shifts,  like this, require you to think about your industry and your potential opportunity differently.

Change is happening faster (and creating bigger edges) than ever before. 

What a great time to be an entrepreneur.

Seize the Edge!

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - March 11th, 2018

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Google Teaches AI to Fool Humans So It Can Learn from Our Mistakes. (TheNextWeb)
• Bill Gates and Warren Buffett Explain a Simple Way to Build an Inner Circle that Helps You Be Great. (Inc)
• The Moon is Getting a Reliable 4G Connection before Certain Parts of the UK. (Alphr)
• Ce*sored! China Bans Letter N (Briefly) from Internet as Xi Jinping Extends Grip on Power. (TheGuardian)
• Here's the One Thing that Would Make Oprah Run for President. (Huffington Post)

 

Trading Links:

• Does Anne Hathaway News Drive Berkshire Hathaway's Stock? (The Atlantic)
• Billionaires Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio Agree on What to Do in a Volatile Market. (USAToday)
• Who is a Better Insider Trader, Gary Cohn, Carl Icahn, or the Folks at the SEC? (ComplianceX)
• Opening a Bank is a Genius Move for Amazon. (TheNextWeb)
• S&P Global Buys Startup in Artificial-Intelligence Push. (Wall Street Journal)

What Are The Most Notable Cryptocurrencies?

A few months ago, it seemed like everyone was asking about Bitcoin (and many were investing heavily). While it's still a common topic of discussion, the sentiment has definitely flattened out.

Making sense of cryptocurrencies is tough. There are over 1000 currencies out there – and the list is growing.  But it isn't just about first-mover advantages or features.  You have to consider government policies and regulations, and a host of other issues.

Consequently, it's hard to recommend putting money in any coin, as an investment.

Trading is a different conversation.

There is a lot of momentum and interest in this space.  If it seems worth learning more, here's an infographic on some of the more notable currencies. 

 

nickwb via Reddit 

Each currency has it's own strengths and weaknesses, but I stay much more bullish on the underlying technologies (like Blockchain) than any individual coin.

What about you? 

Ikigai - A Japanese Concept About Finding Life's Purpose

I just read that they sell more adult diapers than baby diapers in Japan.

Getting old is tough, and it gets tougher the older you get.   As a result, finding your 'reasons for being' and joy in life becomes even more important. 

Many people (all over the world) struggle to get up in the morning. 

There's a Japanese concept called Ikigai that may help.

 

via InformationIsBeautiful

Finding your "reason to be" and living with purpose is a key to making the most of your time.

The graphic highlights something interesting (yet almost counter-intuitive) ... When two areas intersect, it creates a something positive (e.g., a passion or a mission).   However, where three areas intersect, it creates a pain point (for example it could be what you're good at, you love doing it, the world needs it ... but it doesn't make you any money – so now you're struggling).

Worth examining and thinking about for a bit.

On a related note, here is a TEDx talk about the 9 common diet and lifestyle habits that help people live past 100.

 

TED-ED via YouTube

Live long and Prosper!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 25th, 2018

Sometimes it is nice to be reminded that  great works are often performed by perseverance rather than strength.

 

via BrainyQuote

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• 5 Ways Blockchain is Changing the Face of Innovation of 2018. (Forbes)

• Singularity's Top 50 Breakthrough Tech Predictions. (Diamandis)

• Don't Be Fooled: Russia Attacked U.S. Troops in Syria. (Bloomberg)

• Not the End of the World:  The Return of Dubai's Ultimate Folly. (TheGuardian)

• The Price Per Square Inch of Pizza at 8 Major US Pizza Chains. (Visual)

 

Trading Links:

• It's Getting Harder to Tell Banks from Tech Companies. (Bloomberg)

• In Praise of Elon Musk. (NationalReview)

• It's Time to Make Every Road a Toll Road. (Wired)

• No End in Sight for Amazon's Wild Ride. (Wall Street Journal)

• Apple Sold More Watches Than Rolex, Swatch, and the Rest of the Swiss Watch Industry Combined. (Insider)

Making Peace With Massage Chairs and Robot Toilets

Even though my company specializes in automating things that people used to do, I have to admit that I was a little disappointed when I found out Japan Airlines no longer offers massages in their First Class Lounge. Instead, they have replaced the people with massage chairs.

I fly through Japan several times a year – and I had come to look forward to the quick massage between flights.  I’d rush from the plane to the club to make sure that I got on the list (and would feel slighted if there wasn’t enough buffer time between flights to accommodate this indulgence).  So, I was somewhat skeptical about the switch to massage chairs.

The reason was history – I bought my first massage chair in the mid-1990s ... and it was not very good.  Things have come a long way.

Here is a picture of me overcoming my reservations about technology (yet again).

 

 

It presses, stretches, rolls … and (most importantly) works. I was relaxed, refreshed, and tempted to press the button to do it again.

Sure, I didn’t understand the remote.  But, I didn’t understand the massage attendant either.

On a related note, the club has robot toilets as well.  What I mean is that a “washlet” guidance and targeting system automatically cleans the mess you made.  Disconcerting the first time you use it … but, I want one.

Imagine the testing and QA process to get that right.  Glad all we have to do is engineer trading systems to make and keep money.

Why Elon Musk's SpaceX Launch Is So Important

Last Tuesday, Musk launched his Tesla Roadster and it's passenger "Starman" into space on his Falcon Heavy rocket. 

Cool?  Clever Marketing?  Or Both?

 

Space via Twitter

This feat is exciting for a number of reasons.

1. Falcon Heavy is cheaper than other heavy lift rockets – yet, it is twice as powerful. 
2. This means we can ship payloads to Mars (or potentially farther). 
3. The boosters landed back on their platform to be reused.
4. And, ultimately, it's inspiring and momentum building to a new age of future space explorers.

When I was growing up, the space race caught the public's hearts and minds.  I was a kid, but I still remember watching the lunar landing.  It was a big deal! 

Likewise, I remember when astronauts were positioned as national heroes.  Now, we're more jaded.

In the past decade, rockets, space-stations, satellites, etc. were often just an afterthought or a small filler news item.  Meanwhile, A.I., Cloning, Voice Recognition, 3D Printing, Drones, and other technological advances were the sexy attention-getting topics. 

Recently, that has changed.  The space race is getting hot again.  Resources are pouring into this area, and SpaceX's launch is proof that we are making progress (and probably altering life's history). 

Take a look. 

 

 

This was supposed to be captivating.  Teachers can show their students a rocket launch where a man shot a car into space ... then they can watch the car float through space.  It's taking what we're used to only seeing in movies ... and making it real. 

Passion in the sciences is important, and successes like this can ignite passion in our future, in more than just space exploration. 

We live in exciting times. 

Onwards!

Will I Survive the AI Revolution?

The adoption of Artificial Intelligence by more industries, and it's subsequent advances, raise a lot of questions. 

For example, Saudi Arabia recently gave "Sophia the Robot" citizenship. That makes Saudi Arabia the first country to grant a robot citizenship.  This isn't the first time non-persons have been granted the rights of a citizen, but it does raise questions. 

Another question I hear more often is:

 

How long until the machines are better at my job than me? 

 

Automation used to mean big, bulky machines doing manual and repetitive work, but today, automation can land aircraft, diagnose cancer and trade. 

Kurzgesagt, a YouTube channel specializing in explaining things "in a nutshell" took on the new wave of automation. It's a little long at 11 minutes, but it's worth watching.

  

Kurzgesagt via Youtube

Kurzesegast asserts that in the past, innovation created new industries or allowed increased scale ... but the number of jobs the internet and Artificial Intelligence create aren't matching the number of jobs they're making obsolete. 

According to this study, approximately 50% of jobs will be automated by 2034.

Personally, I believe that freeing us to do more has always been a boon to society.  Electricity put a lot of people out of work as well.  Nonetheless, look what it made possible.

To date, human progress has been based on the division of labor. As our society progressed, our jobs have become more and more specialized.  Now, machines will be able to break-down complex jobs into simple parts and complete them faster than we can.  

Machine Learning is being done faster and better.  And you can bet that will only become more true.  So, yes, the same technology that's  currently creating opportunities could eventually put you out of a job ... but it also creates an opportunity for something new.

Basic concepts (like what constitutes a person and which things are alive) are not so basic anymore.  And the implications are fascinating as well.  For example, people are discussing the taxation of robots, a Universal Basic Income, and even One-Child Policies. 

There's a lot of change coming, and that can be scary, but there's plenty of reason to be excited as well.

We live in a golden era of innovation, and we have longer life-expectancies than ever before. 

We truly live in interesting times!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 4th, 2018

Cloning primates ... What could go wrong?

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• U.S. Soldiers are Revealing Sensitive and Dangerous Information by Jogging. (WashPo)
• Billionaire Saudi Prince, Alwaleed Bin Talal, Freed from Detention. (New York Times)
• Science You Might Have Missed in 2017. (Bloomberg)
• Yale's Most Popular Class Ever: Happiness. (New York Times)
• Machiavelli's Advice for Nice Guys. (YouTube)

 

Trading Links:

• Apple Buying Tesla Doesn't Sound like a Crazy Idea Anymore Here's Why. (Insider)
• Every One of the World's Big Economies is Now Growing. (New York Times)
• We are on the Verge of a Consumer M&A Avalanche. (TechCrunch)
• Blockchain Will Transform and Reinvent Organizations, Ecosystems and Economies. (Forbes)
• One Brutal Chart from the Biggest Hedge Fund in the World Explains Everything. (BusinessInsider)