Sometimes it pays not to be an early adopter.
Here is a Saturday Night Live parody of early Google Glass use.
or try this version (because the SNL link was down for a while).
The Google Glass Stare does not seem natural yet. Not sure how long it will take to get used to. For example, imagine having someone like this in a meeting dealing with sensitive data. A little creepy?
via White Men Wearing Google Glass.
Are you getting a pair?
Certainty is a 'funny' thing. Just because you know the 'right' answer doesn't mean there isn't a different answer that might seem even more correct.
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
You probably heard that a fake Tweet (claiming that something happened in Washington DC) caused the market to have a mini flash crash this past week. Within minutes of that Tweet on Tuesday, more than $130 billion disappeared from the value of US stocks trading on Wall Street.
Who is to blame ... hackers, Twitter, or perhaps algorithmic traders? I don't think so.
After looking at the data, here is a different perspective on what happened ... and what I think it means for the future.
Let's assume that a trading algorithm was able
to identify a potential risk (or opportunity) and make a trade based on that information. Once that trade becomes visible to other traders through the open-market system, it's going to trigger a series of causes and effects.
This is no different than when a local on the floor of an exchange places in order during slow market periods to clean out the stops. A spike down beneath people's risk tolerance creates a desire to sell. However, if there is no further selling pressure, the market will rise as traders suspect a 'bargain'. Does that constitute is a micro flash crash also?
The point is that markets are becoming faster and more volatile. It doesn't make sense to complain every time something like this happens. It's going to happen with increasing frequency.
This is now part of the market; consequently, it is time to figure out what to do with it. Some traders will move to faster and more responsive algorithms. Other traders will increase the time-frame that they focus on in order to filter out the "noise" and small variations like this constitute.
Whining about it and calling for increased regulation may be missing the point as well. Why? Because there is a financial incentive for algorithmic traders to become better at correcting these errors themselves. Frankly, it's too expensive to be wrong for long (especially when your trading large-size). As a result, the algorithms are going to get better at the 'two steps forward, one step back' testing and evaluation process. It's inevitable.
Trading isn't about predicting the future. It's about calculating the probabilities better. By doing this you can know faster and act
faster. This will likely result in smaller errors - and (if you care) the markets will seem more orderly. Nevertheless, what it really means is more ways to win for people who can spot the opportunities quick enough to take advantage of them.
Whether it is time to lose weight or gain some new skill or capability ... stop telling yourself you will 'try'. Here are your options (according to Yoda).
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
Fit or Fat? Data Says ... "Fatter than Ever".
It’s no secret that the US has a weight problem, but did you realize how fast the country got fat?
The U.S. has gone from a relatively thin country to a place where the norm in many areas is to be overweight or even obese.
Look How Fast It Happened. The chart starts in 1985.
via The Atlantic
This animated map is jaw-dropping (or belt-busting). Notice the how the rate of change accelerates when it reaches the 2000s … many states burst from around a 20% obesity level to over 30%.
It is interesting to note that Colorado remains the only state (in blue) with less than 20% obesity.
Meanwhile, Gallop recently released their Well-Being Index of 189 metro areas. In 2012, obesity rates in all but two areas were above 15%.
Here are the Fittest and Fattest Communities in the U.S.:
If you live in Charlottesville VA or Boulder CO, you’re probably looking good.
Tragedies often sound a clarion call that get people to band together and be their best selves.
But how long will the good behavior last? Like exercise or showers, while it is good to do ... it is better to repeat.
It is time to take an honest look at ourselves ... and take appropriate action.
The 3 minute video below highlights some tough issues. The hard truth is that progress starts with honesty.
Do you think this painted an accurate picture of the current United States?
There was finally an uptick in securities reaching new 52-week lows this week. Don't get excited; but it had been more than 100 days since we'd seen at least 3% of issues on the NYSE tick at a 52-week low.
Meanwhile, other indicators of where we are on the risk-on/risk-off spectrum have been pointing 'bearish'. For example, the following chart shows that the Russell 2000 Index is under-performing the S&P 500 on a relative basis.
via Chartsetcetera
So new highs were met with lower momentum, and indicators show the bulls are lagging ... Are you thinking "Sell in May?"
It was cool that they found the bombers so fast. Yet, I have mixed feelings about what that implies about the 'surveillance society' we live in.
Sometimes things just don't seem to make sense ... other times they do.
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
Trend-Following 101 says figure out if a market is trending higher or lower ... then evaluate how strong the trend is.
Metals, as a whole, are giving a pretty strong bearish signal.
We use the Trend Level indicator to quantify the true power behind the trends demonstrated by individual markets.
In general, Trend Level (TL) Level scores fall into three zones:
Based on those standards, all six Metal markets are trending lower.
Here is the Trend Level Chart for Metals.
Obviously, Gold is leading the bearish pack downwards. Traders may note that Gold has support at 1472.90 (with more support at 1382.92). Its most recent close was 1501.40.
Are the New Market Highs the Start of Something Bigger?
The Markets are in rarefied territory.
Have you been waiting around to "buy the dip" on this latest stock market rally? If so, you have been waiting a long time.
The Dow and the S&P 500 surpassed their all-time highs.
How Strong is the Up-Trend?The chart below compares equity markets to their three year highs. Thus, if a market is shown to be at 100%, then it's currently at a new three year equity high. If not, then the percentage number indicates how close it is to reaching a new equity high.
Looks pretty strong, globally; doesn't it?
Also visit the Drawdowns Metric page to view historic equity high watermark charts.
Does the economic, valuation, and political background support the budding euphoria? It just doesn't matter. Traders know that when Markets go up on bad news ... that is bullish.
No Pull-Backs to Speak Of - That is Bullish Too.
Risk can be defined in many ways ... the two Russell 2000 charts below focus on a variety of drawdown risk measures that provide prospective on past risk and potential opportunity.
The Russell 2000, shown as a black line in each chart, is making new highs. In the chart below, the pink curve, shows the draw-downs from prior high water marks. The green diamonds (at the zero line) show new highs. This chart shows the past three years.
Drawdown Definitions
to Risk, defined as Maximum Drawdown.
To get a different perspective, the next chart smoothes the Under-Water Index (drawdown curve), by taking a twelve week moving average of it. It is a good way to identify potential turning points for the Russell 2000.
The Blue circles and Green squares signify possible tops and bottom for the market.
One of the ways to use the rolling UVI chart is as a longer-term trend based indicator by watching the general direction of the UVI. If it's moving higher we might expect bullish systems to fare better, while if it's trending lower we might look for bearish systems to trade more effectively.
Right now there is a negative divergence. It is underwater while the market makes new highs. This is where buying should come in ... if not, then this is an early warning.
To see this indicator on other markets, click here.
The Trend is your friend ... until it isn't. But that is pretty easy to tell based on support and resistance levels and indicators like this. Till then, enjoy it while you've got it.
Posted at 09:04 PM in Current Affairs, Market Commentary, Trading, Trading Tools | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
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