I just shared an updated article on the difference between Skill and Luck.
Serendipitously, this article showed up in my feed from 2012. Instead of updating it, I want to share it as I wrote it, because it's still relevant, and it might lose some of its magic if I update it.
So, here it is:
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Title: Some Thoughts On Whether Luck Is Something You Create
Date: November 3rd, 2012
Doing the same things, the same ways, has predictable results. Sometimes, it is important to do things differently.
Here is a photo of me at the National Society of Black Engineers' Professional Development Conference, where I had the opportunity to present and participate in several panel discussions.
That is me, the Mitchell brothers, and Steadman Graham
I'm neither black, nor an engineer, and they aren't traders; so why would they ask me to present... and why would I say yes?
Value is often added at the edges. Likewise, good things often happen when you travel outside your comfort or habit zone.
I gained a lot from the experience. For example, I had a discussion with a nuclear physicist who talked about how they use computer simulations to model the effects of a nuclear explosion. That gave me great ideas about how to measure the effect of a particular trading system or algorithm on a market.
Luck does favor the prepared. That conversation could just as easily have been me simply saying 'hello,' shaking hands and moving on to the next person. To some extent, the ability to take advantage of opportunities comes from the intent to find them.
Is Luck Something That You Can Maximize, Or Would You Consider It Random?
It's possible that luck is both random and something you can maximize.
Here is an example. Many people consider the stock market to be random. Nonetheless, there are groups of people who consistently beat the market and trade profitably. How is that possible?
To explain, let's examine the decision to purchase Apple Computer stock. Regardless of whether that decision was based on gut instinct, fundamental analysis, or a technical chart pattern ... whether the price moves up or down the moment after that purchase is for the most part random.
However, if you make 10,000 trades over time, then your ability to make and keep money is about how you manage risk and opportunity. At that point, your system is not necessarily random. Consequently, it is something that you can improve.
Transform Results By Getting Un-Stuck.
Improvement means getting better and different results. And, as you already know, it doesn't make sense to continue to do the same thing, yet expect different results. So, a key skill is learning to recognize when things are "stuck" in a rut.
The trouble with many "ruts" is that you don't know you're in one, while you're in one. Consequently, it often takes a different perspective to become aware of new possibilities, opportunities, or best next steps.
Implications.
The interesting thing that this implies is that those opportunities were always there ... they just weren't there for you in your current state of awareness.
Similarly, recognize that many of the processes that we rely on limit our "luck" or opportunities precisely because they limit our choices. When this is done consciously it can be helpful. However, when it's an unconscious act, it can be dangerous.
In general, you can categorize many tools as either being multipliers or diminishers. Neither one is good or bad in and of itself. The trick is to recognize that you have a choice and that not choosing is still a choice.
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I think it holds up. What do you think?
Why You Need Patents ...
I shared an article titled “Who’s The Most Innovative?” a few weeks ago. That post alluded to the power of patents. Here, we'll discuss the importance and value of intellectual property in more detail.
Historically, profitable companies often built or sold some tangible product. Consequently, the Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, landowners, etc.
However, over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, the leaders are in tech, intellectual property, and other intangible assets.
As business becomes more digital, you will see an increasing shift towards creating and protecting intellectual property.
When most people hear that, they probably think about patents. So, let's start there.
Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors ... but they’re more than that. They help you create partnerships and an ecosystem. Ecosystems & communities have proven to be the difference between legacy businesses and flash-in-the-pans. It’s the difference between having a product and having a platform.
Patents add dimensionality and revenue streams.
Take Tesla. They’re not just in the business of making cars or pushing the proliferation of electronic vehicles. They’re creating a suite of capabilities that are patentable and licensable. In the future, they can license the self-driving capability (because why would someone build it when they can license it?). They can license the ability to update a car’s operating system over the Internet (or by their Starlink Satellite offering). They can also grow into a clean energy business. I’m sure there are other strategic byproducts I’m missing – but you get the idea.
As they develop these tools and create intellectual property, these same inventions can also become a weighing and measuring tool to find out where people are interested, and identify where people are spending time, money, and energy. Here is a 60-second video that explains the concept.
Patents make the intangible, tangible.
They provide a concrete form to innovative concepts, enabling businesses to protect and capitalize on their intellectual property.
This mindset also creates the infrastructure for change and anticipating future needs, and ensures companies remain adaptable and positioned for long-term sustained growth.
Getting Started
When I help people understand how to move forward with AI, the first thing I ask them is “What’s your why?”. I ask that because as soon as you lose sight of why you built your business in the first place, you’re lost.
After you understand yourself and your business, you have to understand the industry-wide ecosystems, and where the low-hanging fruit are.
If you know the low-hanging fruit, your problem statement, your value proposition, and your “why” you’re in a great place to move forward.
You can use that understanding to stack some easy wins and create bandwidth for larger endeavors.
The effort-to-impact ratio is a great way to think of how you get started. As you begin thinking about staking ground, you don’t want to do the flashy and cost-intensive stuff first. You want to keep a low profile and start to create walls that will help you in the future.
You can use trade secrets, instead of patents, when you don't want to disclose what you do and how you do it. A trade secret is any non-public information that provides a business with a competitive edge and is subject to reasonable steps taken by the business to keep it secret. The protection of trade secrets does not require registration or disclosure to the public. The information remains protected as long as it is kept secret and continues to provide a competitive advantage.
You can also use your intellectual property as part of an attraction strategy to find potential partners or collaborators – creating what Dan Sullivan calls the “Freezone Frontier”.
Final Thoughts
In essence, patents are not just legal safeguards—they are strategic instruments that can shape the future trajectory of businesses. By embracing a holistic approach that combines legal protection, market intelligence, and strategic foresight, companies can harness the full potential of patents, unlocking new dimensions of success in an ever-evolving business landscape.
Posted at 11:41 AM in Business, Current Affairs, Gadgets, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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