Capitalogix

Your Weekend Reading Linkfest

Lots of good stuff this week to distract you from the bad.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Why it’s Not All Bad to Be Bored. (NYTimes)
• Alec Baldwin Puts the 'Fear' Into Christmas with Glengarry Christmas Spoof. (CX)
• Spotify's 10 Most Popular Tracks of 2012. (TheWeek)
• The Purpose Of War? Thought provoking commentary. (ABC)
• Human Modification. Scientists are experimenting with different ways to enhance humans. What's possible? (TheBrowser)

 

Trading Links:

• The World’s 200 Richest People. (Bloomberg)
• Investors’ 10 Most Common Behavioral Biases. (RPSeawright)
• Market Data Firm Spots the Tracks of Bizarre Robot Traders. (TheAtlantic)
• Book Recommendations from Nassim Taleb. (FarnamStreet)
• With Profits Dropping, High-Speed Trading Cools Down. (NYTimes)

Listen In as Michael Covel and David Stendahl Discuss Trading Strategies

Michael Covel is the President TrendFollowing.com and TurtleTrader.com. 

In addition, he has a popular interview series where he talks with great traders and about a wide range of topics.  We are honored that he chose to interview our portfolio manager, David Stendahl.  Here is a link to the Interview.

 

 

The interview is simple enough for a novice, but nuanced enough for advanced traders.  Some of the topics include:

• Stendahl's world is 100% systematic, and he has been involved in conceptualizing and thinking up systematic approaches to trading the market for decades. But what is a system? Stendahl's explanation may surprise you.
• Stendahl's approach is that a system should have as few moving parts as possible; it should be simple enough to be explained on the back of a cocktail napkin.
• Stendahl explains that your system doesn't have to be complex to work. Sometimes the best system can be only four lines of code.
• Covel and Stendahl make an analogy to cars, and how you can easily fix a simpler car in your garage as opposed to a complex Lexus.
• Stendahl explains that everyone is using a system in one way or another: every time you make a decision to buy or liquidate, whether it's based on a real system or based on advice from someone on the television, it's systematic in some regard.
• If you can talk it, you should be able to quantify it. If you can't quantify it, it might not really be there.
• Find out how Stendahl's dyslexia played a role in his technical trading, and how he turned this disadvantage into an advantage.
• Covel and Stendahl discuss Ray Dalio of Bridgewater, who says that he is 100% systematic, but doesn't use any technical information.
• Covel and Stendahl also discuss position sizing and money management, and how you can approach this systematically.

 

There is a lot of good stuff in the interview.  Hope you enjoy it.

Here is a review of Trend Following and the post on Trend Commandments.

See the list of all Covel's Trend Following Manifesto Podcasts in iTunes and here for a more complete description of each recording.  Check it out; he has produced a bunch of terrific interviews that are worth listening to because of their educational content, and because they will make you think.

 

Related articles

• Listen In As Michael Covel and Howard Getson Discuss Trading Strategies (capitalogix.typepad.com)

Procrastinate! Why Waiting to Decide May Be Better for You.

Frank Partnoy ex-Wall Street derivative trader and self-confessed procrastinator, reveals the science behind our decision-making disasters and successes, and argues that decisions of all kinds, whether 'snap' or long-term, benefit from being made at the last possible moment.

The art of knowing how long you can afford to delay before committing is at the heart of many a great decision.

 

 

Listen to the podcast of the full event including audience Q&A.

Related articles

• Procrastinate until your heart's content: we make better decisions when we take our time (blogs.lse.ac.uk)
• Book Review: Wait: The Art of Procrastination (blogs.lse.ac.uk)
• Wait: The Art and Science of Delay (ritholtz.com)

212° - The Extra Degree (a motivational video)

Too many times, a brainstorming session to figure-out how to do something turns into a discussion about how or why it can't be done.

Here's to getting it done anyway!

Sometimes a little extra is all it takes.

It's the extra degree of effort that often separates the good from the great.

For example, at 211°, water is hot. At 212°, it boils.

The one extra degree makes the difference. It's that extra degree that can power a locomotive.

This simple analogy reflects the ultimate definition of excellence. Because it's the one extra degree of effort, in business and life, that can separate the good from the great.

Here is a video.

 

212: The Extra Degree.

It is from Mac Anderson's Simple Truths. I'm a fan of their work, which takes a simple idea and presents it in a memorable way ... with lots of great quotes and stories to illustrate the concept even better.

Yes, they have an iPhone/iPad app.

It's your life ... You are responsible for your results. It's time to turn up the heat!  Are you content with just being pretty good? Or are you ready to go the extra degree?

Related articles

• Executive Coach's Tip: Problems ... What Problems? (careersuccess.typepad.com)
• TGIF ~ Another Superb Inspirational Movie (rainsoftottawa.wordpress.com)

Michael Covel's Trend Commandments

Michael Covel was the keynote speaker at this year's Market Technicians Association Annual Symposium.

Covel has made a name for himself as a chronicler of the Turtle Trading experiment and an outspoken proponent of trend following.  Here is a photo of him and me at the Symposium.

 

  

Truth be told, I often sit through presentations at a trading conference feeling skeptical, and looking for an idea that rings true or at least seems worth investigating further. 

This was much better than that.

Covel claims that market profit is about the right mentoring and practice, not genetic gifts, inborn talents, or Asperger's memory brilliance.  You simply need a winning philosophy and strategy, backed by proven positive results that you can execute.

Unlike some industry experts who hint at elusive secrets, Covel's unabashedly open about what he believes works and the things that he's learned from winning traders. He also sprinkles in wisdom from the ages, like this quote from the ancient Greek trend follower, Epictetus.

Do not strive for things occurring to occur as you wish, but wish the things occurring as they occur, and you will flow well.

The audience at an MTA event is filled with an impressive group of people ... you'll meet portfolio managers, strategists, analysts, quants, and traders who rely on technical analysis. Talk of oscillators, histograms and regression testing fills the air. So, it was refreshing to hear Covel challenge the room. Covel loves to poke technicians who talk about quant trading; he claims that systematic trend following is the only quant strategy that actually works.

He said that what he does is real technical analysis because despite what anyone else thinks, he's skeptical that any of the complex strategies being discussed consistently beats the technique he's talking about. The proof, he says, is in the evidence. In this case, it's the detailed trading records of dozens of systematic trend traders who have produced consistent results that dramatically outperform the markets, year-in-and-year-out for decades.

Simple Is Often Better.

If you asked someone who builds trading systems to describe a trading system, they'd probably focus on inputs and technique (e.g., what indicators does it use; is it a momentum strategy; does it seek to profit from artbitrage, reversion to the mean; does it use a simple crossover technique?). In contrast, Covel starts with a proverb:

If you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and quitting time.

Going a little deeper, Covel says a system should confidently deal with these questions.

1. What market do you buy or sell at any time?
2. How much of a market do you buy or sell at any time?
3. When do you buy or sell a market?
4. When do you get out of a losing position?
5. When do you get out of a winning position?

However, he cautions that trend following starts with knowing when to do nothing. If the market is screaming like a spoiled brat ... Step to the side. That’s your first play. Cash is a legitimate position.

Learning More.

Covel is an engaging speaker and writer. In addition to the keynote, I had an opportunity to sit down with him and have a real conversation. I'm happy to say that he has a terrific grasp on trading, traders, and an interesting perspective on what works.

Covel has a new book called Trend Commandments: Trading for Exceptional Returns. He claims it is for those who know deep down that there is a real way to make money in the markets, but just do not know how yet. 

As a result of our conversation, I bought a copy. Since I had already read several of his other books, including Trend Following and The Complete Turtle Trader, I didn't expect much new information.  However, just as he promised, this book has a different tone and is chock-full of insights and tradable ideas.

If your're curious, here's my post on his earlier books.

Covel offers an interesting collection of Podcasts. Click here to check them out.

And, here is the slide he ends with.

• Do not run with the pack.
• Collaborate with meaningful people.
• Be guided by beauty. It is a beautiful thing to solve problems and do things right. 
• Do not give up.
• Hope for some good luck.

Sounds good.

Related articles

• Howard Getson Unvarnished on Michael Covel Presentation at Market Technicians Association Event in NYC (michaelcovel.com)
• The Man In the Mirror Is Not Where Most Investors Look (michaelcovel.com)
• Props to IBM for the Trojan Horse Trend Following Lesson (michaelcovel.com)

A Little Monday Morning Motivation - The Power of Pause

I spent part of this week at the First Rate Performance Conference. It was held at the Four Seasons resort in Las Colinas, Texas (which is a pretty nice place for a retreat).

In addition to hearing industry experts and company representatives talking about equations, risk management, and regulatory compliance, the conference featured Terry Hershey, who wrote a book called The Power of Pause (Becoming More by Doing Less).

In the book, Terry counters the modern cultural decree of More-Bigger-Faster.  His message was simple (and perhaps even easy). 

One of the takeaways was that some things are tactical, some things are strategic, and some things are transformational. All of these things can be good ... but the quality of your life and the results results you get change as you spend less time with the tactical and move towards the transformational.

Hershey is a story-teller.  Here is one of them:

 

A teacher gave her class an assignment to name the seven wonders of the world.

Each student came up with a list and shared with the class. As you might guess, students called out entries like the Pyramids, the Amazon River, the Grand Canyon, or the Taj Mahal. The teacher cheered them on and told them what a great job they were doing.

But one girl stayed silent. The teacher asked her about her list, and the girl answered, "I don't think I understand the assignment."

"Why?"

"I don't have any of the right answers."

"Well, why don't you tell us which you wrote on your paper, and we'll help you."

"Okay," said the girl, "I think the seven wonders of the world are ... to see, to hear, to touch, to smell, to feel, to love, and to belong."

 

Somewhere along the way, we tend to forget what we used to know.

How much of our daily experience is defined by what we shoot for and what we measure?

Life can be so "daily". That's a problem, isn't it?  No wonder we're easily tempted by things that are urgent, rather than important. But it doesn't have to be that way ... and the first step is recognizing that it doesn't have to be that way. The second step is figuring out how you want it to be instead.

To see some of his messages in video format, click this link.

Related articles

• Harvard Business: The Power of Pause (blogs.hbr.org)

A Little Monday Morning Motivation

I spent part of last week at the Inc. Magazine GROWCO Conference.

If you're not still learning ... your dying.  So, consider continuing education part of your perpetual youth plan.

Plus, there are plenty worse places to be then New Orleans ...

With that said, I know I'm getting older because after walking through the French Quarter - the part of me I most wanted rubbed were my feet. (I wish I was joking).

The first speaker was the Mayor of New Orleans.  He explained that one of the key decisions they made after Katrina wasn't to re-build the city ... instead, it was to build the city they always wanted New Orleans to be.

Bill Clinton was there, too.  He was articulate, charismatic and clever. But the star of the show (based on audience response and the rush of people to get his autograph) was Daymond John (of FUBU and Shark Tank fame).

 

 

Daymond talked about his five Shark Rules:  1. Set Goals; 2. Do your Homework; 3. Always do what you love; 4. Remember you are the brand; and 5. Keep moving.

He stressed that the secret to power is to be decisive.

He also shared that the money they invest on the Shark Tank show really comes from each of them; however, only about 20% of the deals actually get to a closing. 

Daymond said that he invests in people, not companies.  Moreover, he claims that each of Sharks know who they will invest in within the first minute of the presentation (and he suspects that is how most business-people make decisions).  Interesting.

 

Related articles

• 6 Inspirations from GrowCo (inc.com)
• Daymond John: From FUBU to Business Marketing Mogul (hubspot.com)
• Your Quick and Dirty Guide to Sharktank (blogmaverick.com)
• Daymond John: Why I Invest in People, Not Companies (inc.com)
• Ten Lessons I Learned from Shark Tank (techcrunch.com)

Why Did the Clint Eastwood "It's Halftime America" Ad Cause Such a Stir?

Did you see the Clint Eastwood "It's Halftime America" video that ran during halftime of the Super Bowl?

It starts with Clint Eastwood's voice and an image  of a lone man casting a big shadow as he walks down a darkened football stadium corridor.

 

"It's halftime ... Both teams are in their locker room discussing what they can do to win this game in the second half. It's halftime in America, too."

 

 

 
Well, it got noticed ... and it's causing a controversy in some circles.

So much so that SNL made fun of the issue in this spoof.

 

 

 

"I don't care if Obama runs the ball, or Romney throws a touchdown, or Ron Paul kicks a field goal with his tiny little chicken legs," Hader-as-Eastwood warns. "I tell you right now, though, I ain't puttin' Santorum in the game. He can stand on the sideline doin' cheers in his little sweater vest."

 

Sometimes it seems that we become so focused on pointing fingers and finding fault that we forget our real purpose.

To paraphrase Freud, sometimes an ad is just an ad. 

And in this case, it could simply be an inspiring ad paid for by Chrysler (perhaps to say " we faced some hard times, but showed resiliancy and resolve ... and the best is yet to come.")

On a related note, check-out Bob Buford's book, Halftime: Moving from Success to SignificanceHalftime: Moving from Success to Significance. It is about making the second half of your life better than the first.

Buford reminds that in order to have a better second half, you must first figure-out what you
want.

In Halftime, Buford focuses on 'transition'---the time when, he says, a person moves beyond the first half of the game of life. It's a time of revitalization and for catching a new vision for living the second half, the half where life can be lived at its most rewarding. Halftime doesn't have to be a time of crisis. It can be a catalyst for purpose, impact, and growth. It can be about setting a new course away from mere success to true significance---and something better.

This message applies to the market and our economy as well.  What if we are half-way there?  What do you really want?  Where are you committed to go?  What adjustments are needed?  What do you want to do more of? What do you want to do less of?  What do you need to start doing?

It's half-time, and the best is yet to come.

 

Related articles

• Clint Eastwood: I am not 'politically affiliated with Mr Obama' (thegrio.com)
• 'Halftime in America': Clint Eastwood Hates Car Company Bailouts, but Loves Car Company Commercials (minyanville.com)
• A Better "Halftime In America" Commercial (zerohedge.com)

Interesting Links for Your Weekend Reading

Don't get into a fight you can't win.

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• 8 Dangers of Collaboration. (Yes & Know)
• Brad Feld’s New List of Books for Entrepreneurship. (Feld)
• A List of the Articles Most-Shared on Facebook in 2011. (Facebook)
• Bionic Contact Lens 'To Project Emails Before Eyes'. Just what you need. (BBC)
• A New Trend? Tech Firm Outlaws Email Because It Wastes Too Much Time. (Newser)

Trading Links:

• Goldman’s Top Investing Picks for 2012. (FinancialPost) 
• Stock & Pony Show: The Toothless Ban On Congressional Insider Trading. (TheDaily) 
• Can Facebook Raise $10 Billion at a $100 Billion Valuation in Its IPO? (WSJ)
• CEO Outlook: 15 Predictions about 2012. (Chief Executive Magazine)
• Speculation or Trepidation? Fear is More Powerful than Greed. (Economist)

What Good Interview Questions Are Actually Trying to Discover

Image via CrunchBase

When you interview someone for a job, what are you trying to find out?

I've seen and used models that assess how someone likely will fit the Culture, and whether they are Organized, Competent, and Motivated?

Seth Godin often has an interesting perspective on business.  Here is what he shared about this topic.

What good interview questions are actually trying to discover.

• How long are you willing to keep pushing on a good project until you give up?
• How hard is it to get you to change your mind when you're wrong?
• How much do you learn from failing?
• How long does it take you to learn something new?
• How hard is it for you to let someone else take the lead?
• How much do you care?

The rest is merely commentary, either that or they're interviewing someone for a job that's not as good as they deserve. For those jobs, the only question they're really focusing on is, "will they fit in around here?"

If you like that, you might like this too.

What Matters Now - eBook from Seth Godin

The book highlights more than seventy big thinkers, each sharing an idea for you to think about. From bestselling author Elizabeth Gilbert to brilliant tech thinker Kevin Kelly, from publisher Tim O'Reilly to radio host Dave Ramsey, there are some important people riffing about important ideas here.

Download it here.