Capitalogix

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Hope you are having a Happy New Year!

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• How to Form a Habit:  A Scientific Approach. (Sqwiggle)
• What Peter Drucker Knew About 2020. (Harvard Business Review)
• The Unusual Books That Shaped Billionaires and Prodigies. (Tim Ferriss)
• Kermit the Frog Gives a TEDx Talk, and Twitter Loves It. (TED)
• Why Sadness Lasts Longer Than Other Emotions. (BPS Research Digest)

 

Trading Links:

• 2014 Portfolio Review: What Strategies Worked & What Didn’t? (PragCap)
• David Tepper Warns 2015 Is Poised To Be Like 1999. (ValueWalk)
• Saudis Tell Shale Industry It Will Break Them; Plans to Keep Pumping. (NakedCap)
• The Leading Robo-Advisers Now Manage $19 Billion and Continue to Grow. (BI)
• Florida Becomes 3rd Largest State Following CA & TX, NY Drops to 4th; Political Implications. (Global Economic Analysis)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

This cartoon made me chuckle. Perhaps you know someone like this?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Lockheed Martin's New Fusion Reactor Might Change Humanity Forever. (Sploid)
• Which Technologies Will Dominate in 2022? (Wired)
• The Odds, Continually Updated. A surprisingly understandable look at Statistics. (NYTimes)
• Mind Expanding: 7 ways to fine-tune your brain. (New Scientist)
• How Pixar Uses Math to Make Characters Look Perfect. (Gizmodo)

 

Trading Links:

• Big Banks Manipulate Physical Market Prices. (The Big Picture)
• Tony Robbins: Mastering the Game of Money. (Interview)
• The Decline and Fall of Fund Managers. (WSJ)
• Future Opportunities, Future Shocks. 6 Trends Reshaping the World Economy (Citi)
• Attack of the CyberMen. Sophisticated viruses will be the workhorses of 21st-century spying. But there should be rules. (Economist)

A Look at Black Swan Market Risks - Or Not

Have you noticed that people keep using the term "Selfie" to describe tons of pictures that aren't selfies?

Same with "Spoiler Alert" ... People use the term to mean a variety of things now ... few of which are actually spoiler alerts.

There is something similar happening in the financial world. People have latched on to the term "Black Swan".

Here is an example. 

Wall Street was up for the sixth straight week, despite the oil rout.

What could go wrong?  What are the "potential Black Swan events"?

To annswer, Société Générale releases a quarterly chart  of "Black Swan" risks. 

The most recent example is below.

 

 via BusinessInsider.

The concept of a "Black Swan" event takes its name from Nassim Taleb's 2007 book "The Black Swan."

But there's a slight problem with the chart above: acknowledging an event's possibility means it can't be a Black Swan.

The chart suggests that further deterioration in the economic situation in Europe poses a risk to the market. However, a "Black Swan" is an event or occurrence — a tail event, as Nassim Taleb would call it — that is so remote that it is completely unforeseen. 

In his book, Taleb uses the Thanksgiving turkey as an example.

"Consider a turkey that is fed every day," Taleb writes. "Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,' as a politician would say.

"On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."

Here's what it looks like in chart form. 

 

 

This is basically the book's entire message wrapped up in one graphic. 

"Consider that [the turkey's] feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!" Taleb writes.

"But the problem is even more general than that; it strikes at the nature of empirical knowledge itself. Something has worked in the past, until — well, it unexpectedly no longer does, and what we have learned from the past turns out to be at best irrelevant or false, at worst viciously misleading."

And this is really what the problem of Black Swans is all about. 

It isn't that we can't know the future, but that we delude ourselves into thinking we can ... making forecasts about events that are inherently unforecastable and giving us false belief about what can (or will, or might) happen in the future. 

When a Black Swan event occurs, it seems outside what had previously seemed possible.

However, Taleb suggests, the event only seems outside previous beliefs about what was possible because of how we arrived at those possibilities ... by using the past to forecast the future.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The 25 Best Inventions of 2014. (Time)
• Peter Thiel's Very Negative - And Very Useful - Advice For Entrepreneurs. (Fortune)
• Google Glass Failed, but Here’s the Path Its Successors Will Take. (MIT TReview)
• Why Do People Believe in Conspiracy Theories? (Scientific American)
• Will NFL Broadcasts Ever Embrace Advanced Stats? Sabermetrics changed pro baseball. Now comes football. (MMQB)

 

Trading Links:

• The Science Behind Casino Profits. (The Week)
• Facebook 'Newspaper' Spells Trouble For Media. (BusinessInsider)
• U.S. Economy: Four Indicators Paint Very Negative Picture. (Business2Community)
• USPS Takes on FedEx and UPS with 7-day Delivery This Holiday Season. (B2C)
• Black Friday Online Sales Up 8.5% Over Last Year, 20% Of Sales Came From iOS. (TechCrunch)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

The virus on your computer is NOT Ebola.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• If Brainstorming Doesn't Work … Try This Technique Instead. (FastCompany)
• 5 Radical Business Quotes from Tesla Motors, Inc.'s CEO, Elon Musk. (M-Fool)
• Bill Gates's Favorite Business Book. (Wall Street Journal)
• 10 Malware Removal Apps Tested: Malwarebytes Comes out on Top. (Lifehacker)
• Which Country Does The Most Good For The World? (TED Talk Video)

 

Trading Links:

• Netflix Surpasses HBO in Subscriber Revenue. (Mashable)
• Harry Dent Predicts Central Banker Economies Will Collapse, Including Ours. (M-Oracle)
• New ETF Tracks the Billionaire Dream Team. (Bloomberg)
• USPS: 3D Printing Could Increase Shipping Revenue by Hundreds of Millions. (GigaOM)
• Math Nerds Are Taking Over Wall Street. (Money)

Wisdom in the Age of Information: The Future of Story-Telling

“We live in a world awash of information, but we seem to face a growing scarcity of wisdom,” states Maria Popova, Founder of the website Brain Pickings.

She believes that stories—in the broadest sense of the word—shape the meaning and momentum of everyday life.

 

 

 via YouTube.

Stories will never die, but the ways we tell them are changing.

Interesting.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

The U.S. is supposed to be the model for free market economics.  So, why do we have the highest corporate tax rate in the world?

 

Here are ten posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• These Are Some of Best Time-Saving Hacks for A Productive Day. (AlltopStartups)
• There are Now 50 Colleges that Charge More Than $60,000 Per Year [List]. (Insider)
• If Logos Had Honest Slogans ... (TwistedSifter)
• Amazon Tests Kindle Unlimited, Its Own E-book Subscription Service. (FastCompany)
• Dad Claims Kingdom So 7-Year-Old Can Be Real Princess. (HuffingtonPost)

 

Trading Links:

• The Moneyball of Quality Investing. (ResearchAffiliates)
• The Difference Between a Good and a Bad Trader: What Brain Imaging Reveals. (ZH)
• Central Bank Exec Says Stocks Are 'Irrational'; China Poised To Crash. (BizInsider)
• A Cheat Sheet for Understanding the Different Schools of Economics. (Pragcap)
• 5 Everyday Products Whose Prices Are Hitting All-Time Highs. (Fool)

What Shoulder Surgery Reminded Me About Technology

History is littered with tales of once-rare resources made plentiful by innovation. The reason is pretty straightforward ... scarcity is often contextual.

Imagine a giant orange tree packed with fruit. If you pluck all the oranges from the lower branches, you are effectively out of accessible fruit.

From that limited perspective, oranges are now scarce. But once someone invents a piece of technology called a ladder, the problem is solved.

 

Shoulder Surgery Isn't What It Used to Be.

 

 

I had shoulder surgery on Wednesday to remove some calcium deposits and bone spurs, and to clean out or fix some soft tissue damage.

 

Needless to say, I wasn't looking forward to it.  And not just to the needles and knives, I was dreading the rehab.

 

Turns out, shoulder surgery isn't what it used to be.  

 

Here is a picture from inside my shoulder (unlike years ago, they didn't have to rip me open to to gain access for the picture or the repair).

 

 

Less damage, less time, less drugs, less recovery.

Bottom-Line: I went in early, and was out before lunch.  Moreover, I was able to work and go to a reception the day after the surgery ... and go to the gym this weekend. 

Whether it is minimally invasive surgical instruments, or linking big data and elastic computing ... Technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. 

Whether it is minimally invasive surgical instruments, or linking big data and elastic computing ... Technology is a resource-liberating mechanism. It can make the 'once scarce' the 'now abundant' (or 'readily accessible') ... and a lot less painful.

Pretty Cool!

Is the U.S. Stock Market Rigged?

Did you see the 60 Minutes report on Michael Lewis' new book, "Flash Boys," that reveals some of the ways that high speed traders work the stock market to their advantage.

 

 

Here is an excerpt from the intro.

 

Steve Kroft: What’s the headline here?

Michael Lewis: The Stock Market is rigged. The United States stock market, the most iconic market in global capitalism is rigged.

Steve Kroft: By whom?

Michael Lewis: By a combination of these stock exchanges, the big Wall Street banks and high-frequency traders.

Steve Kroft: Who are the victims?

Michael Lewis: Everybody who has an investment in the stock market.

 

The 60 Minutes piece has a interesting explanation of what is happening.

For an even better one, click to watch this Michael Lewis interview on Bloomberg, where he defends his claim that the market is rigged.

 

 

via Bloomberg Television's “Market Makers.”

 

Let me know if you want to talk about high frequency trading or what is likely to happen as a result of press coverage like this and the ensuing regulatory scrutiny.

 

We live in interesting times.

 

Related articles

Michael Lewis Explains How HFTs "Screw" Investors Every Day.

Big Picture - More Videos: On how the U.S. stock market is rigged?

Wall Street Pit: On How 'Rigged' The Stock Market Really Is

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Shared Wisdom: Thoughts From Some of the Industry’s Best VCs. (PandoDaily)
• How Slot Machines Raise Our Hopes, Even When We’re Losing. (NYTimes)
• Finding Value in Information Super-Abundance. (Economist)
• How Nate Silver Got It Right. It's not how much data you have, it's what you do with it. (NYBooks)
• Big Data Can Tell By Your Tweets If You’re a Psychopath. (GlobalMail)

 

Trading Links:

• Small Hedge Funds Outdo Elite Rivals. (FT)
• What If They Held a Bull Market and No One Came? Disinterest in the Dow's new high. (WS&T)
• Buffett Picks Douglas Kass as His 'Bear' for Berkshire’s Annual Meeting. (Dealbook)
• Could North Korea Really Nuke the United States? Threat of a "Preemptive Nuclear Attack" (TW)
• As Budget Cuts Loom, Austerity Kills Off Government Jobs. What effect will that have on the economy? (NYTimes)

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