When Beethoven was at the peak of his career, several of his contemporaries struggled to deal with the realization that they may never create anything that lived up to his creations. Brahms, for example, refused to make a symphony for 21 years. Schubert is quoted as saying, “Who can ever do anything after Beethoven?”
We’re seeing the same effect as a result of Artificial Intelligence.
The gap between human and machine reasoning is narrowing fast. I remember when AlphaGo, an AI program created by Google’s DeepMind, finally got better than humanity at Go. It was a big deal, and it prompted us to think seriously about competition in a post-AI world. If you can’t be the best, is it still worth competing? To one former Go champion, it wasn’t. He retired after “declaring AI invincible.”
Over the past few years, AI systems have advanced rapidly, surpassing humans in many more tasks. Much like Beethoven, AI is discouraging competition.
Was Lee Sedol, the former Go champ, wrong to quit? It’s hard to say ... but as AI gets better at more activities, it’s an issue we’ll encounter more often.
There’s always someone (or something) better. Taking a purely utilitarian approach isn’t always necessary or productive. It often helps to take a longer view of the issue.
Sometimes, it's okay to just do something because you enjoy doing it.
Sometimes you have to “embrace the suck” and be willing to put in the work to learn, grow, and progress.
Sometimes, you need to invest effort in understanding a process better to determine whether others (or automation) are achieving the right results.
The most successful people I know don’t try to avoid things with powerful potential. Instead, they leverage those things to achieve more and become better.
I advocate intelligently adopting AI, in part, because I expect the scale of AI’s “wins” will skyrocket. That means I know AI will soon be better than I am at things I do now.
It doesn’t mean I should give up. It means I have to raise the bar to stay competitive.
I have another belief that helps here. What if you believed, “The game isn’t over until I win ...”? With that belief in place, I won’t let a 2nd place ceiling stop me if something gives me energy. AI may change how I play the game ... or even what game I choose to play ... but I will still choose to play.
What Happens to Human Work When Machines Get Smarter?
This past week, several prominent CEOs publicly mandated AI use, marking a shift to “AI-first” work culture, which prioritizes and integrates AI into the core of an organization’s strategy, operations, and overall culture.
Here is what I think (and you've probably heard me say this before):
At this point, AI won't likely replace you ... but someone who uses AI better might.
Let’s face it, doing more with less is a core goal and strategy in business.
But that doesn’t mean humans are doomed. There are lots of historical parallels between AI integration and past technological revolutions. If you think about AI as a transformative force, you can hear the echoes of historical shifts that redefined work practices and intellectual labor (like the printing press, the calculator, or the internet).
We’re seeing significant changes in how we work. Instead of just having a mix of people working from home or the office (a hybrid workplace), we’re moving to a situation where people are working alongside smart computer programs, called AI agents (a hybrid workforce).
In the age of AI, success doesn’t come from battling technology — it comes from embracing our uniquely human powers and building systems that let those powers shine.
AI is coming - but it doesn’t have to be joy-sucking. Ideally, it should free you up to do MORE of the things that bring you joy, energy, and satisfaction.
Next Sunday is Easter, but yesterday was the first night of Passover - an 8-day long Jewish holiday that recounts the story of Exodus.
The overlap can be seen in DaVinci's Last Supper, depicting a Passover Seder and Jesus's last meal before his crucifixion.
Part of the Passover Seder tradition involves discussing how to share the story in ways that connect with different types of people, recognizing that everyone understands and relates to things differently.
To do this, we examine the Passover story through the lens of four archetypal children — the Wise Child, the Wicked Child, the Simple Child, and the Child Who Does Not Know How to Ask.
The four children reflect different learning styles — intellectual (Wise), skeptical (Wicked), curious (Simple), and passive (Silent) — and highlight how we must adapt communication to the diverse personalities and developmental stages of our audience.
This seems even more relevant today, as we struggle to come to a consensus on what to believe and how to communicate with people who think differently.
On a lighter note, one of the memorable phrases from Exodus is when Moses says, "Let my people go!" For generations, people assumed he was talking to the Pharoah about his people's freedom. But after a week of eating clogging food like matzoh, matzoh balls, and even fried matzoh … for many Jews, "Let my people go" takes on a different meaning.
After Passover, and as we enter a new season, it's a great time for a mental and physical 'Spring Cleaning,' and delve into your experiences to cultivate more of what you desire and less of what you don't.
Almost every event I go to nowadays ends up focused on AI. At a recent event, conversations ranged from use cases for generative AI (and the ethics of AI image creators) to the long-term effects of AI and its adoption.
Before I could chime in, the conversation had gone to the various comparisons from past generations. When electricity was harnessed, articles claimed that it would never catch on, it would hurt productivity – and woe be unto the artisans it would potentially put out of business if it were to gain traction.
When the radio or TV was released, the older generation was sure it would lead to the death of productivity, have horrible ramifications, and ultimately lead to the next generation's failure.
People resist change. We're wired to avoid harm more than to seek pleasure. The reason is that, evolutionarily, you have to survive to have fun.
On the other hand, my grandmother used to say: "It's easy to get used to nice things."
Here's a transcript of some of my comments during that discussion:
With AI, getting from "Zero-to-One" was a surprisingly long and difficult process. Meaning, getting AI tools and capabilities to the point where normal people felt called to use it because they believed it would be useful or necessary was a long and winding road. But now that everybody thinks it's useful, AI use will no longer be "special". Instead, it will become part of the playing field. And because of that, deciding to use AI is no longer a strategy. It becomes table stakes.
But that creates a potential problem and distraction. Why? Because, for most of us, our unique ability is not based on our ability to use ChatGPT or some other AI tool of the day. As more people focus on what a particular tool can do, they risk losing sight of what really matters for their real business.
Right now, ChatGPT is hot! But, if you go back to the beginning of the Internet, MySpace or Netscape (or some other tools that were first and big) aren't necessarily the things that caught on and became standards.
I'm not saying that OpenAI and ChatGPT aren't important. But what I believe is more important is that we passed a turning point where, all of a sudden, tons of people started to use something new. That means there will be an increase of focus, resources, and activity concentrated on getting to next in that space.
You don't have to predict the technology; it is often easier and better to predict human nature instead. We're going to find opportunities and challenges we wouldn't because of the concentration of energy, focus, and effort. Consequently, AI, business, and life will evolve.
For most of us, what that means is that over the next five years, our success will not be tied to how well we use a tool that exists today, but rather on how we develop our capabilities to leverage tools like that to grow our business and improve our lives.
Realize that your success will not be determined by how well you learn to use ChatGPT. It will be determined by how well you envision your future and recognize opportunities to use tools to start making progress toward the things you really want and to become more and more of who you really are. Right?
So, think about your long-term bigger future. Pick a time 5, 10, or even 20 years from now. What does your desired bigger future look like? Can you create a vivid vision where you describe in detail what you'd like to happen in your personal, professional, and business life? Once you've done that, try to imagine what a likely midpoint might look like. And then, using that as a directional compass, try to imagine what you can do in this coming year that aligns your actions with the path you've chosen.
Ultimately, as you start finding ways to use emerging technologies in a way that excites you, the fear and gloom fade.
The best way to break through a wall isn't with a wide net ... but with a sharp blow. You should be decisive and focused.
Commit to using AI in ways that give you energy, which may be entirely different from how you use it now.
So much of what we do now is anchored in the past. This is an opportunity to transcend the old ways you did things and to shape and transform your future (and perhaps even what you believe is possible).
I was an entrepreneur in the late 90s (during the DotCom Bubble). And I remember watching people start to emulate Steve Jobs ... wearing black faux-turtlenecks and talking about how they were transforming their business to be in an Internet company – or which Internet company would be the "next big thing." Looking back, an early sign that a crash was coming was that seemingly everybody had an opinion about what would be hot, and too many people were overly confident in their views because seemingly everyone was saying the same things.
Human nature has remained stubbornly consistent through many waves of technology.
The point is that almost nobody talks about the Internet with the focus and intensity they did in the late 90s ... in part because the Internet is now part of the fabric of society. At this point, it would be weird if somebody didn't use the Internet. And you don't really even have to think about how to use the Internet anymore because there's a WHO to do almost all those HOWs (and many of them are digital WHOs that do those HOWs for you without you even knowing they were needed or being done).
The same is going to be true for AI. Like with any technology, it will suffer from all the same hype-cycle blues of inflated expectations and then disillusionment. But, when we come out the other side, AI will be better for it ... and so will society.
Understanding the Possibility Scale
It helps to understand how we bring things into existence. To start, it's nearly impossible to manifest something you can't first imagine. And there is a moment just before something happens - when it becomes inevitable.
I created this Possibility Scale to help envision the stages of becoming.
As an aside, before today, I would not have attempted to create an image for a post like this. While I love thinking and writing, image creation was outside my area of expertise or unique ability. But now things are different. Today, I simply asked ChatGPT to create that image. Yes, it took me four tries ... each retry starting with "that was great, now help me improve the prompt to (fix the thing I wanted done differently)." At the end, I asked it to give me the complete prompt I could reuse. Contact me if you want the prompt.
Earlier, I mentioned how long it took to get from "Zero-to-One" with AI. But don't fret; things are speeding up, and we're just at the beginning of the process. If I created a scale to show the capabilities of AI, and set the endpoint at 100 to represent AI's potential when I die - even though I'm in my early 60s, I'd put us at only a 3 or 4 on that 100-point scale. Meaning, we are at the beginning of one of the biggest and most asymptotic curves that you can imagine. That also means that you're not late. You're early! Even the fact that you're thinking about stuff like this now means that you are massively ahead of most.
The trick isn't to figure out how to use AI or some AI tool. The trick is to keep the main thing the main thing. Build your ability to recognize when and how to use these new capabilities to bring the future forward faster.
Investing resources into your company is one thing. Realize that there are 1000s of these tools out there, and many more coming. You don't have to build something yourself. It is often faster and better to acquire a tool than it is to spend money on developing and building it.
Think of the Medici family. They invested in people, which in turn triggered the Renaissance. A key to moving forward in the Age of AI will be to invest in the right WHOs, seeking to create the kind of world you want to see or the types of capabilities you desire. Think of this as a strategic investment into creators and entrepreneurs with a vision or who are on a path that aligns with yours.
As you get better and better at doing that, you'll see increasing opportunities to use tools to engage people to collaborate with and create joint ventures. Ultimately, you will collaborate with technology (like it's your thought partner and then your business partner). We are entering exciting times where AI, automation, and innovation will make extraordinary things possible for people looking for opportunities to do extraordinary things.
As my grandmother said, it's easy to get used to nice things.
Twice this week, I heard someone say, “Start with Why.”
As a tech entrepreneur, I often ignore that aphorism.
Someone who embodies it (and made it famous) is Simon Sinek. He is a motivational speaker and organizational consultant who gained widespread recognition after his 2009 TED Talk, “How Great Leaders Inspire Action,” which remains one of the most-viewed TED Talks ever, with almost 70 million views.
This talk introduced his core framework: The Golden Circle, the concept that catapulted him to fame. It is a simple but powerful model for understanding why some leaders and organizations inspire while others don’t. It consists of three concentric circles, like a bullseye. At the center is Why, the middle ring is How, and the outermost ring is What.
Most people and organizations focus on the outermost circle first—what they do—and then work inward. Sinek flips this approach, arguing that great leaders and companies start from the inside out: start with Why.
Why Start with Why?
Here’s an analogy: Think of a magnet. The strongest force comes from its core. Similarly, in leadership and business, the Why is your core—it’s what attracts people to you. It’s not just about selling a product; it’s about sharing a belief or vision that resonates emotionally with others.
For example:
Apple doesn’t just sell computers (What). They believe in challenging the status quo and thinking differently (Why). Their How—innovative design and user-friendly technology—flows naturally from this belief.
Martin Luther King Jr. didn’t say, “I have a plan.” He said, “I have a dream.” His Why inspired millions because it connected with their values and emotions.
The Biological Connection
Sinek ties this idea to how our brains work. The outer layer of the brain (the neocortex) processes logical information like facts and figures (What), but decisions are driven by the limbic brain, which controls emotions and instincts (Why). When you lead with Why, you speak directly to people’s feelings, inspiring trust and loyalty.
Simplified Takeaway
Think of it like this: If you want people to join your cause or buy into your vision, don’t just tell them what you’re selling or how great it is. Tell them why it matters—to you and to them. Starting with Why connects hearts before minds, creating a lasting impact.
In short, the Golden Circle isn’t just a business strategy; it’s a way to inspire action by leading with purpose.
I met Simon through friends before his first book came out.
Then, in 2009, he gave a speech to the Dallas Chapter of EO, and then visited my office to speak with our team afterwards. I still remember how well-received he was. It was right at the beginning of his meteoric rise, two short months after the release of his famous book "Start With Why."
Who do you believe will do a better job, someone who takes a job because of the salary and benefits ... or someone truly inspired to accomplish the job's purpose?
Phrased that way, of course, you know the answer. Still, how can you leverage this to better select customers and employees?
For example, Simon uses the story of Sir Ernest Shackleton to illustrate this concept. Shackleton was preparing to lead the first expedition across Antarctica in 1914. Legend has it that when seeking crew members for his journey, Shackleton placed the following ad in a newspaper:
"MEN WANTED FOR HAZARDOUS JOURNEY. SMALL WAGES, BITTER COLD, LONG MONTHS OF COMPLETE DARKNESS, CONSTANT DANGER, SAFE RETURN DOUBTFUL. HONOUR AND RECOGNITION IN CASE OF SUCCESS. - SIR ERNEST SHACKLETON"
When the expedition became stuck in the ice and could not be rescued for 22 months, not a single man was lost. The reason Simon gave for their unlikely survival was that Shackleton hired survivors that could deal with the situation and were aligned with the mission and purpose.
Can you imagine writing an ad like that to attract the right people to your cause?
Watch This Video.
Here is a video of Simon speaking at a TED Conference. It is an excellent intro to his stuff.
Other Resources:
Here is a link to Simon's Blog. (2023 Note: this now links to his old blog, which is poorly formatted but interesting to see. His new website/blog can be found here.)
It's now more than ten years later, and Simon is one of the most prominent leaders in leadership development and has published five books, to much acclaim.
Part of his success is the charisma and pith with which Simon speaks and writes - but a large part is his focus on what makes humans human. He's not preaching a leadership mantra focused on the bottom line and revenue; he's focused on the aspects of human nature that don't change. He's focused on purpose and the elements of leadership that apply to everyone - not just CEOs.
As we move into an era of increased volatility – both in markets and business - these leadership principles will become more important.
Understanding your "WHY" is vital if you want to make a difference (and not be replaced by an AI). It’s also vital in making discipline the easier choice.
It's interesting to consider how drastically this changes supply chain management. People now expect free and fast shipping and the ability to return items if they don't work out (instead of trying them in-store). Meanwhile, brands have high fixed costs due to their existing retail locations, yet they need to keep most of their stock in warehouses instead of their box stores to deal with the surplus of online orders.
Michael Masterson wrote a book called Ready Fire Aim: Zero to $100 Million In No Time Flat. It is a practical guide for entrepreneurs and business leaders, focusing on the different stages of business growth and the key challenges and priorities at each stage.
A core message of the book is to start taking action quickly (instead of getting bogged down in over-planning) and use rapid iteration and real-world feedback to refine strategies.
The concept is presented in the context of growing a business – yet the lessons apply broadly.
Swift action should be your focus ... not over-planning or perfect timing.
Too many companies get stuck in a cycle of brainstorming, getting internal feedback, making changes, and failing to release the product.
Even for released products, too many fail because they took too long to launch or ignored market feedback.
Masterson stresses that the value of live performance is that it helps you course-correct. He also cautions that there is no such thing as perfect timing. The best timing is almost always ‘Now!’
Now, let’s extrapolate.
Let’s say you’re pondering a tricky work problem. You know you need to figure it out before the end of the week ... but your brain keeps going in circles.
You don’t believe you can take decisive action and course-correct because you feel you have to get it right.
So, what can you do? Write it out. Write out the potential paths, ramifications, and worst-case scenarios as holistically as possible.
You’ll find that simply by writing it out instead of just ‘thinking,’ you end up more creative with more insight.
Writing aids in organizing and clarifying your thoughts.
AI As Your ‘Action’ Partner
AI can make this process easier, faster, and more manageable. Tools like ChatGPT can help you explore complex topics, run scenarios for you, and provide external feedback.
It’s not the same as real-world feedback, but it can shorten the ‘Aim’ part of the process.
As you externalize your thoughts in writing them to whatever AI you choose, you also get the same benefit you did writing your thoughts out in our previous example.
The business environment is changing faster than ever. Technology is advancing faster, adoption is getting easier, and the average Joe is becoming bullish on AI. Because of that, Masterson’s book is even more relevant now than it was in 2007. Here are a few of the other key takeaways from Ready, Fire, Aim.
Adapt Your Role: As a company scales, leaders must shift from “doing” to guiding and from tactics to strategy.
Be Sales-Focused: Keep revenue generation as a core priority, especially in the early stages.
Build Scalable Systems: Invest in operations and leadership at the right time to support sustainable growth.
Innovate Continuously: Avoid complacency by fostering an organizational culture that balances efficiency with creativity.
AI and exponential technologies are going to compress cycle types. What used to be long-term planning will just be planning. You have to act fast, not only to capitalize on these trends but also to avoid being wiped out by them.
This article was created using a unique process compared to our usual approach. To test ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice capabilities, I decided to talk with it while walking around my neighborhood. I wanted to explore if it could help me be productive while getting fresh air and exercise.
What follows is the transcript, with only some light editing and formatting to better provide insight into the process and its outputs.
The embedded mini-article that ChatGPT produced isn’t the main takeaway here. What interests me is the quality of the article, considering how little effort went into creating it. It was so painless and quick that I found myself contemplating how easily I could use this process for other types of productive output. In fact, that concept is a key focus of the mini-article below.
That said, this is just a snapshot of AI’s current capabilities. If I were to repeat this experiment in six months or a year, I’m confident the results would be even more impressive. I'm also confident that if I'd asked it to flesh out the article, I would have been more impressed as well.
I’d probably consider this article “good enough” if I weren’t someone who takes pride in my writing and thinking. Nonetheless, I believe it’s a solid starting point. For the record, my son (who helps write these weekly commentaries) disagrees. He liked our article and its premise – but "hated" what ChatGPT produced.
Sure, some additional work and deeper reflection could make it meaningfully better ... but it’s impressive how quickly and easily we came up with something valuable (that could become even more valuable with a little extra effort).
In conclusion, these content creation capabilities represent a key shift: the content bar will rise, and the minimum standard for what’s acceptable will get higher. But as the bar for “acceptable” rises, I think fewer people will strive for greatness. That’s where you can extend your edge ... if you’re willing to do the extra work.
Here is the Chat.
“Hello.”
00:00
Hey there! How’s it going?
“Going pretty well. Today, I want to work on a blog post.”
00:06
That sounds great! What topic are you thinking about for your blog post?
“How voice agents like you can help to create articles in a new way.”
00:07
That’s a fascinating topic! Exploring how voice agents can revolutionize content creation could really capture readers’ imaginations. You could delve into how it streamlines the writing process, adds a conversational tone, and even opens up new possibilities for interactive or personalized content. What angle are you thinking of taking?
“Everything you just said, but I also want to add a piece on instant feedback.”
00:01
Fantastic! So, you could structure the blog post around how voice agents enhance the writing process by making brainstorming more dynamic, offering immediate feedback, and allowing for a more fluid, conversational tone. Is there anything else you want to explore in the post?
“An example where I’m walking around the neighborhood, but instead of simply walking, I talk to the AI agent and have it even ask me questions.”
00:16
So, while strolling through the neighborhood, you engage in a productive dialogue with the AI agent instead of just walking. It can prompt you with questions ...
“And help me consider and refine the post; yes.”
00:020
So, while strolling through the neighborhood, instead of just walking, you engage in a productive dialogue with the AI agent. It can prompt you with questions, helping you refine your ideas and shape your article, all while you’re getting some fresh air and exercise. It’s a great way to maximize productivity in otherwise idle moments. Want to include anything else?
“Yes, a couple of other examples and challenges for the reader to think about other uses of this technology that open up AI and exponential progress in ways that they haven’t thought of before.”
00:21
Great idea! You could include examples like using voice agents for language learning, where they act as conversation partners, or for project management, where they help organize tasks and deadlines through natural conversation. For challenges, invite readers to think about how voice agents might transform areas like mental health support, creative collaborations, or even scientific research. This approach could really spark some innovative thinking!
“Great. Please come up with a detailed outline for what you’re thinking.”
00:08
Introduction
Brief overview of how voice agents are changing content creation.
Mention of the growing role of AI in everyday life.
Voice Agents: A New Way to Write
How voice agents can turn walking time into productive writing sessions.
The ease of having a conversation with an AI to generate content.
Benefits of Voice Agents in Content Creation
Brainstorming: How voice agents can help generate ideas.
Instant Feedback: Getting immediate responses to refine ideas.
Conversational Tone: How speaking thoughts out loud can create a more natural writing flow.
Examples of Voice Agent Applications
Language Learning: Acting as a conversation partner.
Project Management: Organizing tasks through dialogue.
Mindfulness and Mental Health Support: Providing an outlet for expression and guidance.
Creative Collaborations: Assisting in the co-creation of stories or projects.
Challenges for the Reader
Encourage readers to think of other areas where voice agents could be transformative.
Provoke thought on the broader implications of AI in accelerating exponential progress.
Conclusion
Summarize the key points discussed.
“Okay, please write that blog post for an executive or entrepreneur audience, making it simple, engaging, and relevant to their interests.”
00:15
...Got it. Here’s the blog post:
Unlocking the Power of Voice Agents: A New Frontier in Content Creation
In today’s fast-paced world, efficiency and innovation are essential, especially for executives and entrepreneurs. One of the most exciting developments in this arena is the rise of voice agents — AI-powered assistants that are transforming how we create content. Imagine turning a simple walk around the neighborhood into a dynamic brainstorming session or a full-fledged article creation process. Let’s explore how voice agents can open up new horizons for you.
This image was created using X’s Grok AI to pair with this article.
Voice Agents: A New Way to Write
Picture this: you’re out for your morning walk, and instead of just enjoying the scenery, you’re also creating content. With a voice agent, you can do just that. Engage in a conversation with your AI assistant, and the spoken ideas seamlessly transform into written words.
Benefits of Voice Agents in Content Creation
Brainstorming
Voice agents excel at helping you brainstorm. Throw ideas at them, and they’ll help you explore different angles, often sparking new thoughts in the process.
Instant Feedback
Gone are the days of waiting for feedback. With a voice agent, you get instant responses. As you articulate your thoughts, the AI provides real-time feedback, helping you refine your ideas on the fly. It’s like having an editor by your side, 24/7.
Conversational Tone
Speaking your thoughts can lead to a more natural, conversational tone in your writing. This style is increasingly popular, as it engages readers and makes complex topics more accessible.
Examples of Voice Agent Applications
Language Learning
Voice agents can act as conversation partners, helping you practice new languages in a low-pressure environment. They can introduce vocabulary, correct pronunciation, and even engage in dialogue, making language learning more interactive and fun.
Project Management
Organizing tasks and deadlines through natural conversation is another strength of voice agents. Discuss your project needs, and let the AI help you prioritize tasks, set reminders, and keep you on track.
Mindfulness and Mental Health Support
Voice agents can offer a safe space for expression and reflection. They can guide you through mindfulness exercises, provide mood trackers, or simply lend an empathetic ear, offering support whenever you need it.
Creative Collaborations
Imagine co-writing a story or developing a project with your AI assistant. Voice agents can contribute ideas, help you overcome creative blocks, and add a new dimension to collaborative efforts.
Some Challenges to Consider
As you consider these applications, think about other areas where voice agents could revolutionize your work or personal life. Could they streamline your decision-making processes? Might they open up new avenues for customer engagement? The potential is vast, limited only by our imagination.
Conclusion
Voice agents are changing how we create content, offering benefits beyond simple convenience. From brainstorming to project management, and from language learning to mental health support, the possibilities are endless. As we continue to integrate AI into our daily lives, voice agents will evolve into increasingly powerful tools for innovation and growth. So, the next time you head out for a walk, consider inviting your AI assistant along — you might just discover your next big idea.
“Okay, thanks.”
00:01
You’re welcome! If you need any more help, just let me know.
I’d love your feedback on this ... and I’m curious to learn how you’re using AI or want to use AI.
As I’ve said before – we live in interesting times.
When I first got interested in trading, I relied on traditional sources and old-school market wisdom. For example, I studied the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
While there is some real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions. Throw enough darts, and one might hit the bullseye.
Here’s an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer. In 1875, he released a book titled “Benner’s Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices,” where he shared the often-referenced chart called the Benner Cycle. Some claim it’s been accurately predicting market fluctuations for over 100 years. Let’s check it out.
Here’s what it gets right ... markets go up and down ... and that cycle continues. Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high ... It’s hard to call that a competitive advantage.
Mostly, you’re looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle.
However, it was close to the dotcom bust and the 2008 crash ... so even if you sold a little early, you’d have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.
We use a form of cycle analysis in our models … but it’s more rigorous, nuanced, and scientific than the Benner Cycle. The trick is figuring out what to focus on – and what to ignore.
Just as humans are good at seeing patterns, even where there are none ... they tend to see cycles that aren’t anything but coincidences.
In trading, “alpha” measures the excess return created by manager skill rather than luck or movement of the underlying market. As you might guess, both “art” and “science” are involved in that calculation. Profitable traders want to believe it’s a sign of their skill, while losing traders prefer to blame luck.
Nicholas Nassim Taleb pointed out in “Fooled by Randomness” that many successful traders, even those with decades-long careers, were likely more lucky than skillful. They just happened to be at the right firm, on the right trading desk, at the right time.
That said, I believe technology, algorithms, and AI are evolving into Amplified Intelligence - the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually improve performance. We’re about to experience a huge asymmetric advantage ... those who understand technology and science (math, statistics, game theory, etc.) will have a real edge over those relying on more primitive techniques or gut instinct.
In a sense, this is another type of cycle.
The best traders I know believe that “smart money” takes “dumb money”. While it may sound harsh, this cycle has played out repeatedly over time. Cutting-edge science can seem like magic to those who don’t understand it. However, these capabilities give a significant advantage to those who possess and use them.
I believe the gap between smart and dumb money is widening. That represents a massive opportunity for those who recognize what’s coming.
This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommended something that made money, doesn’t make it a good recommendation. Those models may do some things well ... but they also might just have made a lucky prediction at an opportune time. Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn’t an area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals (at least if you don’t understand how to ask AI to do something that you understand and believe gives you a real edge).
If you don’t know what your edge is, then you don’t really have one. This becomes even more important in the age of AI. It doesn’t matter if AI does what it’s supposed to unless you believe it is doing what you want.
What Do You Do When AI is Better Than You?
When Beethoven was at the peak of his career, several of his contemporaries struggled to deal with the realization that they may never create anything that lived up to his creations. Brahms, for example, refused to make a symphony for 21 years. Schubert is quoted as saying, “Who can ever do anything after Beethoven?”
We’re seeing the same effect as a result of Artificial Intelligence.
via visualcapitalist
The gap between human and machine reasoning is narrowing fast. I remember when AlphaGo, an AI program created by Google’s DeepMind, finally got better than humanity at Go. It was a big deal, and it prompted us to think seriously about competition in a post-AI world. If you can’t be the best, is it still worth competing? To one former Go champion, it wasn’t. He retired after “declaring AI invincible.”
Over the past few years, AI systems have advanced rapidly, surpassing humans in many more tasks. Much like Beethoven, AI is discouraging competition.
Was Lee Sedol, the former Go champ, wrong to quit? It’s hard to say ... but as AI gets better at more activities, it’s an issue we’ll encounter more often.
There’s always someone (or something) better. Taking a purely utilitarian approach isn’t always necessary or productive. It often helps to take a longer view of the issue.
Sometimes, it's okay to just do something because you enjoy doing it.
Sometimes you have to “embrace the suck” and be willing to put in the work to learn, grow, and progress.
Sometimes, you need to invest effort in understanding a process better to determine whether others (or automation) are achieving the right results.
The most successful people I know don’t try to avoid things with powerful potential. Instead, they leverage those things to achieve more and become better.
I advocate intelligently adopting AI, in part, because I expect the scale of AI’s “wins” will skyrocket. That means I know AI will soon be better than I am at things I do now.
It doesn’t mean I should give up. It means I have to raise the bar to stay competitive.
I have another belief that helps here. What if you believed, “The game isn’t over until I win ...”? With that belief in place, I won’t let a 2nd place ceiling stop me if something gives me energy. AI may change how I play the game ... or even what game I choose to play ... but I will still choose to play.
What Happens to Human Work When Machines Get Smarter?
AI is changing the playing field at work, too.
As a result, some say that AI-driven job displacement is not a future threat but a present reality.
This past week, several prominent CEOs publicly mandated AI use, marking a shift to “AI-first” work culture, which prioritizes and integrates AI into the core of an organization’s strategy, operations, and overall culture.
Here is what I think (and you've probably heard me say this before):
Let’s face it, doing more with less is a core goal and strategy in business.
But that doesn’t mean humans are doomed. There are lots of historical parallels between AI integration and past technological revolutions. If you think about AI as a transformative force, you can hear the echoes of historical shifts that redefined work practices and intellectual labor (like the printing press, the calculator, or the internet).
In the age of AI, success doesn’t come from battling technology — it comes from embracing our uniquely human powers and building systems that let those powers shine.
AI is coming - but it doesn’t have to be joy-sucking. Ideally, it should free you up to do MORE of the things that bring you joy, energy, and satisfaction.
Onwards!
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