I'm launching a new newsletter - with a twist. The newsletter will be fully automated and produced by an AI we are training to pick out the articles to highlight and share.
Don't Let the Past Get In the Way of the New.
Even though a lot of what I think and write about is innovation, exponential technologies, and automation ... until now, what we write and send has been the result of human effort rather than artificial intelligence or technology.
Sure, portions of the process leverage technology ... but humans have written the vast majority of what you read here.
It takes many hours a week. Frankly, many more hours than you would guess!
Still, I enjoy working on the Weekly Commentary and the list of links that I share. It is a labor of love (or OCD?) that I have been producing for about twenty years!
If you aren't a subscriber yet, please click here to get it!
We currently send out two weekly e-mails. The one that comes out on Fridays is a hand-curated list of links that I found interesting during the week. The Sunday edition has two articles written by me and my son, Zach, along with a few more links.
Deep down, I know that AI is now good enough to curate a high-quality list of articles in a more efficient, effective, and certain way than what I produce.
So, we are about a week away from launching this.

This is my John Henry Versus The Machine.
And I'll tell you what – I'm worried.
The new AI-generated newsletter is really good.
Why Play a Losing Game?
I know that I will lose ... But I also know that I will win. And so will you!
This does not have to be an "either-or" decision. This is a "both-and" decision. Meaning ... I don't have to decide whether to stop producing by hand, in order to also produce with AI.
One of the challenges with AI is that the fitness function you choose significantly impacts the result you achieve.
If the purpose of the newsletter was only to produce a quality newsletter in less time, with less effort, and with greater certainty that readers engage ... then the result is inevitable. The AI newsletter wins.
However, I didn't choose to produce the newsletter for the newsletter. The newsletter is a natural result of my nature. I did the research because I wanted to do the research.
I am naturally curious and passionate about these things. It's what I think about. It's who I am ... and what I do.
The Weekly Commentary and Link List are strategic byproducts of something that I'm going to choose to do anyway,
AI Won't Replace the Real Magic.
One of my beliefs about AI is that you shouldn't use it to replace your Unique Ability. In other words, don't try to automate, delegate, or outsource something you are great at, if it gives you energy. The goal is to magnify "magic," not replace it. The goal is to spotlight and support those areas by taking away things that are frustrating, bothersome, distracting, or taking cycles away from something that would produce a greater result with less energy.
The point is, I can do both. I will still do research because it gives me pleasure, knowledge, and a greater likelihood of continuing to learn and grow. I will continue to write and curate.
Why? Because it's also an important part of my thinking process. I think when I speak. I think when I write. But more importantly, I think when I am preparing to speak or write. I wouldn't be me if I didn't go through that process. I also don't believe my ideas or opinions would continue evolving without the challenge and effort.
And I will also enjoy evolving new and different channels of communication.
Hopefully, we all benefit.
So, I hope you sign up for the new newsletter. We'll be sending out the first e-mail within the next week or two.

As I've said, I love writing and researching. I'm an innovator at heart.
Many read my articles because of my commitment to AI, new technologies, and the future. Most of my exploration has been centered on Capitalogix and our Amplified Intelligence Platform. But there are a lot of exciting new use cases of AI, and I'm exploring many of those apps right now.
For example, as you could have guessed, one such use that I'm excited about is AI-curated newsletters. Many people I trust and respect have started using Daily.AI, including Peter Diamandis, Dan Sullivan, Joe Polish, and Chris Voss. It's clearly a successful modality.
A Thousand Mile Journey Starts With a Single Step.
Hopefully, you are excited about the new newsletter and the value you will get from it.
I'm confident it will only improve – because it learns from what you value.
To start, the newsletter will focus on these three topic areas:
- How to build a resilient business in a fast-changing world
- The Psychology of technology & technology addiction
- Business ethics and AI ethics in today's world.
But that is just the starting point. It is set up to consider the same type of offshoots as I normally would. So, it will remain diverse and educational.
Please sign up and let me know what you think about it.
Old School Wisdom Isn't Always So Wise ...
When I first got interested in trading, I relied on traditional sources and old-school market wisdom. For example, I studied the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
While there is some real wisdom in some of those sources, most might as well be horoscopes or Nostradamus-level predictions. Throw enough darts, and one might hit the bullseye.
Traders love patterns ... from head-and-shoulders, to Fibonacci sequences, and even Elliot Wave Theory.
Here’s an example from Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer. In 1875, he released a book titled “Benner’s Prophecies: Future Ups and Downs in Prices,” where he shared the often-referenced chart called the Benner Cycle. Some claim it’s been accurately predicting market fluctuations for over 100 years. Let’s check it out.
Here’s what it gets right ... markets go up and down ... and that cycle continues. Consequently, if you want to make money, you should buy low and sell high ... It’s hard to call that a competitive advantage.
Mostly, you’re looking at vague predictions with +/- 2-year error bars on a 10-year cycle.
However, it was close to the dotcom bust and the 2008 crash ... so even if you sold a little early, you’d have been reasonably happy with your decision to follow the cycle.
We use a form of cycle analysis in our models … but it’s more rigorous, nuanced, and scientific than the Benner Cycle. The trick is figuring out what to focus on – and what to ignore.
Just as humans are good at seeing patterns, even where there are none ... they tend to see cycles that aren’t anything but coincidences.
In trading, “alpha” measures the excess return created by manager skill rather than luck or movement of the underlying market. As you might guess, both “art” and “science” are involved in that calculation. Profitable traders want to believe it’s a sign of their skill, while losing traders prefer to blame luck.
Nicholas Nassim Taleb pointed out in “Fooled by Randomness” that many successful traders, even those with decades-long careers, were likely more lucky than skillful. They just happened to be at the right firm, on the right trading desk, at the right time.
That said, I believe technology, algorithms, and AI are evolving into Amplified Intelligence - the ability to make better decisions, take smarter actions, and continually improve performance. We’re about to experience a huge asymmetric advantage ... those who understand technology and science (math, statistics, game theory, etc.) will have a real edge over those relying on more primitive techniques or gut instinct.
In a sense, this is another type of cycle.
The best traders I know believe that “smart money” takes “dumb money”. While it may sound harsh, this cycle has played out repeatedly over time. Cutting-edge science can seem like magic to those who don’t understand it. However, these capabilities give a significant advantage to those who possess and use them.
I believe the gap between smart and dumb money is widening. That represents a massive opportunity for those who recognize what’s coming.
This is a reminder that just because an AI chat service recommended something that made money, doesn’t make it a good recommendation. Those models may do some things well ... but they also might just have made a lucky prediction at an opportune time. Making scientific or mathematically rigorous market predictions probably isn’t an area to trust ChatGPT or one of its rivals (at least if you don’t understand how to ask AI to do something that you understand and believe gives you a real edge).
If you don’t know what your edge is, then you don’t really have one. This becomes even more important in the age of AI. It doesn’t matter if AI does what it’s supposed to unless you believe it is doing what you want.
Be careful out there.
Posted at 06:18 PM in Books, Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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