Do
you want sprouts with that? A former McDonald's boss would like to welcome
you to his new restaurant. No butter, cream, white flour, or additives. (Wired)
In addition, he has a popular interview series where he talks with great traders and about a wide range of topics. We are honored that he chose to interview our portfolio manager, David Stendahl. Here is a link to the Interview.
The interview is simple enough for a novice, but nuanced enough for advanced traders. Some of the topics include:
Stendahl's world is 100% systematic, and he has been involved in conceptualizing and thinking up systematic approaches to trading the market for decades. But what is a system? Stendahl's explanation may surprise you.
Stendahl's approach is that a system should have as few moving parts as possible; it should be simple enough to be explained on the back of a cocktail napkin.
Stendahl explains that your system doesn't have to be complex to work. Sometimes the best system can be only four lines of code.
Covel and Stendahl make an analogy to cars, and how you can easily fix a simpler car in your garage as opposed to a complex Lexus.
Stendahl explains that everyone is using a system in one way or another: every time you make a decision to buy or liquidate, whether it's based on a real system or based on advice from someone on the television, it's systematic in some regard.
If you can talk it, you should be able to quantify it. If you can't quantify it, it might not really be there.
Find out how Stendahl's dyslexia played a role in his technical trading, and how he turned this disadvantage into an advantage.
Covel and Stendahl discuss Ray Dalio of Bridgewater, who says that he is 100% systematic, but doesn't use any technical information.
Covel and Stendahl also discuss position sizing and money management, and how you can approach this systematically.
There is a lot of good stuff in the interview. Hope you enjoy it.
Frank Partnoy ex-Wall Street derivative trader and self-confessed procrastinator, reveals the science behind our decision-making disasters and successes, and argues that decisions of all kinds, whether 'snap' or long-term, benefit from being made at the last possible moment.
The art of knowing how long you can afford to delay before committing is at the heart of many a great decision.
The iPhone 5 is cutting edge ... and Siri is getting smarter. Too bad it can't answer the tough questions. Here's a cartoon that imagines what would happen if asked "Can the economy be fixed in the current political climate?"
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
I was watching some of our team chat about the new iPhone 5. They shared the link for the video and said things like "Wow, dude ... I want one so bad!"
There is also a spoof of the video. It is very funny ... worth watching
for a laugh and some perspective on how "big" the Apple brand promise
has become.
In many ways, the spoof made me want the phone even more.
As a side-note, wouldn't it be great to design a product that was spoof-worthy?
As
you think about what a spoof of your product or service would be,
perhaps the bit of "truth" in the humor points at the real competitive
advantage ... or at least towards the roadmap that leads towards
creating one?
Perhaps you heard, Apple sold a few new iPhones last week.
According to TechCrunch, iPhone 5 Pre-Orders sold-out 20X faster than the 4 and 4S did.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this should tell quite a story.
The first picture shows the first hurdle ... just strong demand ... right?
At a little after 2am CST, the iPhone 5 seemed close. The upgrade process starts.
Clicking the button, however, resulted in no joy. The site was unavailable.
OK, lots of people must be hitting the site all at once. Let's try again ... and again ...
Progress; at least this is a new page. They must have fixed things?
It's after 3:30am and the next picture shows why pillows seem more likely than gadget love.
Give AT&T credit for good planning. How many ways can you anticipate failing?
I sleepily imagine my propeller beanie being taken away for failing to score ... my early adopter status is wavering as much as my sleep deprived body.
Oh, Apple's site probably sucks less than this ...
Alas, there's still a chance to wait in line this Friday.
While talking with traders, one of the topics that keeps coming up is how much the markets and trading have changed recently.
One
of the primary catalysts to such change has been the amount and
frequency of government intervention and stimulus. Another big driver of
change has been the massive shift to algorithmic or program trading.
Recently, the piece of this getting the most press and attention
is high-frequency trading.
Below is an interesting video where Mark Cuban, Dallas Mavericks
owner and high-profile entrepreneur, shares some thoughts about why high-frequency trading
terrifies him.
Here is the video. The market related comments start about 30 seconds into the clip.
Some people may watch that video and assume that
high-frequency trading is a bad thing, or something to be regulated and minimized. However, there is another side to the argument.
Let me digress for a moment. If I talked to an entrepreneur, and asked them what the biggest constraint on their business was ... some might say it's the Obama administration and their policies. This is absurd, because they don't have any control (or at least meaningful control) of that supposed constraint. Instead, that is simply a "reality" of the current competitive environment for them and others.
What that means is the thing they control is how they respond to that competitive environment. For some, what they perceive limits their options or thwarts their strategies. For others, it is a catalyst for new action, new strategies, and new ways to win.
So, why is Cuban afraid of high-frequency trading? First, he believes we are likely to see another "flash crash". Second, an increasing percentage of market action is a result of algorithms trying to outsmart algorithms (and he recognizes that the decisions they are making happen faster than humans can respond to our comprehend). As a result, human intervention isn't the answer because any actions would occur too late.
Some people recognize the advantage algorithmic traders are gaining and seek to weaken it (or at least slow it down), while others pull their money out of the market because of their disadvantage and the new risk. Contrast that with those that see the advantage and try to figure out how to extend it or get some of it for themselves.
It's like most things in life, it's not as much about what happens, it's about what you do.
If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.
Energy flows where
focus goes … and questions are a great way to direct focus.
Planning is one
thing, “real life” is another.So, how do
you give stakeholders a clear picture of what’s happening, the relevant business
terrain, and the best path for them to navigate given their daily challenges
and objectives?
15Five is a
management tool that can help with those issues.It consists of a few simple questions that
each of your direct reports has an opportunity to fill out each week.
The name, “15Five”, comes
from the concept that it should take someone 15 minutes to think about and fill
out their answers to these questions; while it should take you about five
minutes (per person) to review those answers and give feedback. These responses
can be public or private, as you see fit.
The good news is that
15Five is simple and usable.You’ve
probably heard the phrase “Garbage in, garbage out.”More importantly, though, “Nothing in,
nothing out.”If people don’t use a
tool, it is tough to benefit from it, regardless of how “good” it is.
So, How Did Our Team Respond to This New
Tool?
Predictably, after a
week or two of using it, several members of the team approached me to ask how
long they'd have to do this. However, just a few weeks later, some of those
same people shared how much they're enjoying the process.
Ultimately, they
recognize that it's helping them raise their focus from the immediate to a
chunk higher. They also recognize that it's a chance to have a one-on-one
conversation with their boss about what they want to talk about … without
taking time away from their work or interrupting their focus time.
The 15Five process
also gives respondents a chance to think about and prepare worthy answers
(rather than to feel tongue-tied or regretful that they failed to mention
something when they had the chance).The
result is something they are likely to be proud of – and something to build
upon.
For the manager, it
is a chance to give individual attention to each respondent. It also provides
an easy way to comment (or ask for additional information) about specific
ideas. Just click a button and write your note. The other party gets an email
that they can respond to directly, or they can see it in the conversation
thread for that week’s report.
Where Is Value Added?
15Five helps people
think about the business (rather than simply working through their daily grind).
It helps them recognize why what they are doing matters, and how what they are
doing helps move things in the right direction.As a result, using the tool builds confidence and momentum. Ultimately,
15Five helps people steer themselves to take appropriate actions and make
better decisions.
As a trader, I
understand that price is the primary indicator of the market. However, to get a
better understanding, many traders use secondary indicators (like sentiment,
momentum, rate of change, or even the response to good or bad news). Beyond a direct communication tool, these are
the types of insights that the 15Five feedback mechanism makes possible.
For example, don't
just look at one week's set of responses in a vacuum. Instead, notice the tone
and the amount of care that someone uses when they send you their information.
Coachable Moments.
Here is another
example.If someone typically writes
three or four sentences to respond to a particular question, but this week they
only responded with three words, that might be an important thing to pay
attention to and note.
Sometimes a
non-answer is important. Last week one of the questions was “What
challenges are you facing? How are you going to fix it, and where do you need
help?”Someone answered that
they were not facing any new challenges that week. Great, right?Or, is that really an opportunity for
coaching?
In that situation, my
response was: “There are always challenges. Sometimes they are easy to spot
because they clearly present themselves as problems.Other times they can show up as opportunities
or choices … Sometimes, however, they are harder to identify because they could
stem from something as subtle as conflicting desires. Remember that the goal of the question to look above the
day-to-day activities to focus on your higher level intent and purpose.”
The point is that 15Five
gives you great opportunities to add value - and the time to notice coachable
moments. Here are some examples:
Is
somebody telling you what they “don't
want” rather than what they
intend to do?
Are
they so focused on the obstacles and challenge that they forget to recognize the opportunity or potential
competitive advantage?
Are
there opportunities to include other
people to create a unique ability team rather than a solo effort?
Are
there things that you can express
gratitude about or help the other person to feel proud about?
Are
they focused on the forest for the trees? If so, what is a quick compass check to ensure that we are moving in the
right direction?
Are
they focused on the right part of the problem; and have they right-sized it into chunks small enough to work on
effectively?
What does this
accomplishment make possible? And
how can we continue to build confidence and momentum?
From my perspective, the
thought process and preparation may be more important than the answers
themselves.
So, Is It Worth Paying For?
15Five helps avoid
communication problems by creating and preserving appropriate context for
decision-making.In addition, it is a
tool you can use to effectively direct focus and “steer” the company.
It is also worth
noting that 15Five feels like a separate tool.Because of that, I suspect people respond differently to it than they would
to a simple email or a discussion thread on the corporation’s private intranet.
Ultimately, this
process is something that people like better and gain more value from as they
do it more and do it better.
Energy flows where
focus goes … and questions are a great way to direct focus.
Planning is one
thing, “real life” is another.So, how do
you give stakeholders a clear picture of what’s happening, the relevant business
terrain, and the best path for them to navigate given their daily challenges
and objectives?
15Five is a
management tool that can help with those issues.It consists of a few simple questions that
each of your direct reports has an opportunity to fill out each week.
The name, “15Five”, comes
from the concept that it should take someone 15 minutes to think about and fill
out their answers to these questions; while it should take you about five
minutes (per person) to review those answers and give feedback. These responses
can be public or private, as you see fit.
The good news is that
15Five is simple and usable.You’ve
probably heard the phrase “Garbage in, garbage out.”More importantly, though, “Nothing in,
nothing out.”If people don’t use a
tool, it is tough to benefit from it, regardless of how “good” it is.
So, How Did Our Team Respond to This New
Tool?
Predictably, after a
week or two of using it, several members of the team approached me to ask how
long they'd have to do this. However, just a few weeks later, some of those
same people shared how much they're enjoying the process.
Ultimately, they
recognize that it's helping them raise their focus from the immediate to a
chunk higher. They also recognize that it's a chance to have a one-on-one
conversation with their boss about what they want to talk about … without
taking time away from their work or interrupting their focus time.
The 15Five process
also gives respondents a chance to think about and prepare worthy answers
(rather than to feel tongue-tied or regretful that they failed to mention
something when they had the chance).The
result is something they are likely to be proud of – and something to build
upon.
For the manager, it
is a chance to give individual attention to each respondent. It also provides
an easy way to comment (or ask for additional information) about specific
ideas. Just click a button and write your note. The other party gets an email
that they can respond to directly, or they can see it in the conversation
thread for that week’s report.
Where Is Value Added?
15Five helps people
think about the business (rather than simply working through their daily grind).
It helps them recognize why what they are doing matters, and how what they are
doing helps move things in the right direction.As a result, using the tool builds confidence and momentum. Ultimately,
15Five helps people steer themselves to take appropriate actions and make
better decisions.
As a trader, I
understand that price is the primary indicator of the market. However, to get a
better understanding, many traders use secondary indicators (like sentiment,
momentum, rate of change, or even the response to good or bad news). Beyond a direct communication tool, these are
the types of insights that the 15Five feedback mechanism makes possible.
For example, don't
just look at one week's set of responses in a vacuum. Instead, notice the tone
and the amount of care that someone uses when they send you their information.
Here is another
example.If someone typically writes
three or four sentences to respond to a particular question, but this week they
only responded with three words, that might be an important thing to pay
attention to and note.
Sometimes a
non-answer is important. Last week one of the questions was “What
challenges are you facing? How are you going to fix it, and where do you need
help?”Someone answered that
they were not facing any new challenges that week. Great, right?Or, is that really an opportunity for
coaching?
In that situation, my
response was: “There are always challenges. Sometimes they are easy to spot
because they clearly present themselves as problems.Other times they can show up as opportunities
or choices … Sometimes, however, they are harder to identify because they could
stem from something as subtle as conflicting desires. Remember that the goal of the question to look above the
day-to-day activities to focus on your higher level intent and purpose.”
The point is that 15Five
gives you great opportunities to add value - and the time to notice coachable
moments. Here are some examples:
Is
somebody telling you what they “don't
want” rather than what they
intend to do?
Are
they so focused on the obstacles and challenge that they forget to recognize the opportunity or potential
competitive advantage?
Are
there opportunities to include other
people to create a unique ability team rather than a solo effort?
Are
there things that you can express
gratitude about or help the other person to feel proud about?
Are
they focused on the forest for the trees? If so, what is a quick compass check to ensure that we are moving in the
right direction?
Are
they focused on the right part of the problem; and have they right-sized it into chunks small enough to work on
effectively?
What does this
accomplishment make possible? And
how can we continue to build confidence and momentum?
From my perspective, the
thought process and preparation may be more important than the answers
themselves.
So, Is It Worth Paying For?
15Five helps avoid
communication problems by creating and preserving appropriate context for
decision-making.In addition, it is a
tool you can use to effectively direct focus and “steer” the company.
It is also worth
noting that 15Five feels like a separate tool.Because of that, I suspect people respond differently to it than they would
to a simple email or a discussion thread on the corporation’s private intranet.
Ultimately, this
process is something that people like better and gain more value from as they
do it more and do it better.
Bottom Line: It
clearly adds value. Give it a try.
Some Links for Your Weekend Reading
Ever wonder how the stock market works?
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.
Lighter Links:
Trading Links:
Posted at 10:12 AM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Science, Trading, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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