Holiday travel can pose challenges, and the new security requirements add to them. The TSA is just doing their job. Here are some humorous ways to look at it.
For more, click here.
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November 2010
November 28, 2010
November 24, 2010
Some New TSA Slogans to Brighten Your Holiday Travel
November 22, 2010
November 21, 2010
Adam Sandler's Thanksgiving Song Video
With Thanksgiving coming this week, I thought this would help you get in the holiday spirit. In case you forgot, Thanksgiving is an annual tradition of observing how people used to communicate before the Internet.
Click the image below to watch "Adam Sandler's Thanksgiving Song".
This Thanksgiving, cherish the time spent with your family as a reminder of why you moved very far away from your family.
My belt is already unbuckled.
Capitalogix Commentary 11/22/10 - Smart versus Dumb Money
Market Commentary
A flat market doesn't mean that nothing happened. Last week may have started and ended in about the same place; however, the market showed a lot of resilience.
Where Did The Fear Go?
The lack of fear and the lack of selling pressure is surprising to me. On one hand, that is a bullish sign. On the other hand, sentiment is often a contrary indicator.
One well known measure is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (commonly referred to as the VIX), a measure of fear and how much investors are willing to pay for options as protection against declines in their portfolios, has drifted down to levels that were coincident with short-term market tops in April 2010 and a series of tops in 2007 and 2008.
In addition, the latest report by Investors Intelligence measuring the sentiment of investment newsletters, shows 56.2% are bullish, while only 20.2% are bearish. This is the highest level of bullishness since December, 2007 (which was just a couple of months after the severe 2007-2009 bear market began).
Likewise, the weekly poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors, showed sentiment had reached 57.6% bullish last week, its highest level in a number of years, higher than just before the 2007 bull market top (54.6% bullish), higher than just before the top in January of this year (49.2%) and higher than just before the April top (48.5% bullish).
It plunged to only 40.0% bullish this week, which had some pundits saying, "Ah, that removes the risk from the investor sentiment side." But, according to Sy Harding, unfortunately that's not how it usually works.
Smart Money - Dumb Money Confidence Index.
The chart, below, compares the bets made by small traders (a.k.a. the "Dumb Money"), to those of large commercial hedgers (a.k.a. the "Smart Money").
In practice, Confidence Index readings rarely get below 30% or above 70% (they usually stay between 40% and 60%). When they move outside of those bands, it's time to pay attention.
Even more noteworthy is when there is a wide confidence spread with bullish bets by the Dumb Money and bearish bets by the Smart Money. This type of sentiment spread only happens a few times a year. We often get substantial bullish reversals when that happens.
Conventional trading wisdom says that Crowds are usually wrong at turning-points. That doesn't mean they are wrong all the time (yet I take special notice when the Smart Money clearly disagrees).
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
- U.S. Pursues Sweeping Insider-Trading Probe. Seems Like a Big One. (WSJ)
- G.M.'s Return to Stock Market Brings In Over $23 Billion. (Dealbook & YFinance)
- Why Our Economy Can’t Afford More G.M. “Success” Stories. (HF)
- 24 Statistics About the U.S. Economy Almost Too Embarrassing to Admit. (BizInsider)
- Where Economics, Psychology & Statistics Intersect. (SFO-Mag)
- More Posts Moving the Markets.
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
- Are You a Multiplier or Diminisher - a Genius or Genius-Maker? (Coach & YouTube)
- Did China 'Hijack' the Internet? The Pentagon Says They Did. (TheWeek & Reuters)
- Google Offers Staff Engineer $3.5 Million To Turn Down Facebook Offer. (TechCrunch)
- List of the Most Expensive University Prices. The Expanding 50K Club. (Chronicle)
- Visit Oxford's Word Graveyard. (SaveTheWords)
- More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
November 15, 2010
Capitalogix Commentary 11/16/10 - Reality Check
This latest round of quantitative easing is pretty straight forward. Bernanke isn't even pretending that that QE will actually benefit the real economy. His lack of pretense is almost brazen. For example, he posted this in an Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post:
This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action.
Does it surprise you that Bernanke's evidence of success is that the market moved higher? Does it matter if the progress is tangible economic progress (or is improving against expectations enough)?
Of course, Bernanke hopes the wealth effect from stocks will be a catalyst to real economic gain; but to many analysts, it still reeks of manipulation and intentional bubble-blowing.
Taleb Is Saying That Ben Bernanke is a Serial Plane Crasher.
On one hand, Taleb is entitled to his opinions (even if he takes a few liberties with the facts). On the other hand, what I'm watching is how people (read, "the market") react. Here is a video of a recent Taleb media appearance.
So, what do you think the smart money is going to do?
Corporate Insiders Dumping Stock at a Record Pace.Quantitative Easing is supposed to drive stocks up, creating a wealth effect that restores confidence to the economy and spurs more business activity. However, insider selling is way up since the QE2 announcement.
Cisco had a big earnings miss, which sent its shares down 15%. Meanwhile, Cisco insiders had been selling stuck for the past six month. During that period, the scorecard shows 6.6M shares sold - and 0 shares bought; well played.
In fact, insider selling hit an all-time record last week. And it isn't over; Steve Ballmer disclosed that he will try to sell $75 million of his Microsoft stock this year.
A Note For Contrarians.
While insiders are selling and global markets are reversing, bullish sentiment soars. Small investor bullishness is back to 2007 levels! Traders will be watching for signs of weakness because this is what happens around a top.
Watch for Bear Droppings.
After a massive rally, it is natural to start looking for a correction. With the recent market action drifting lower - some are questioning whether this could be the start of a more sustained decline?
The answer is ... sure (it could be); but, probably not.
A trader reminds that the market "eats like a bird and poops like a bear". If the market is not "pooping" like a bear, then it is probably not ready to have a sustained correction.
Early indicators and theories are great because they remind you to pay attention. However, price is the primary indicator. As long as the market is going up, all we know is that it is going up (and to pay attention).
The answer is ... sure (it could be); but, probably not.
A trader reminds that the market "eats like a bird and poops like a bear". If the market is not "pooping" like a bear, then it is probably not ready to have a sustained correction.
Early indicators and theories are great because they remind you to pay attention. However, price is the primary indicator. As long as the market is going up, all we know is that it is going up (and to pay attention).
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
- Is Bernanke Engaging In The Monetary Equivalent Of Nuclear War? (BizInsider)
- Jim Rogers Says the Fed's Bernanke "Doesn't Understand" Economics. (Bloomberg)
- G-20 Summit Ends with an Agreement to Disagree. (LATimes & TDB)
- Could We See a Global Monetary System That Puts Gold in the Mix? (WSJ)
- Beware Blanket Statements: like "Don't Fight the Fed". (CapitalObserver)
- More Posts Moving the Markets.
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
- Leadership Secrets of Winston Churchill (Forbes)
- The Next Shift: Social-Networking Services to Replace E-Mail. (TechCrunch & Gartner)
- Robot "Chatbot" Debates Climate Change Deniers via Twitter. (SmarterTech)
- Tracking Happiness: Is Daydreaming Linked to Bad Moods? (Newser)
- Twinkie Diet Helps Nutrition Professor Lose 27 Pounds. (CNN & TheWeek)
- More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
November 14, 2010
An Explanation of Quantitative Easing You'll Enjoy Watching
This was funny.
Even if you think you know what QE2 means, or don't believe that "'The printing money' is the last refuge of failed economic empires and banana republics, and the Fed doesn't want to admit this is their only idea" ... Watch this humorous take on what the Federal Reserve is up to, and how we got here.
Like much humor, there is more than a grain of truth in it.
It was made with the Xtranormal text to movie engine.
November 07, 2010
One of the Chilean Miners Ran the New York Marathon Today.
Chilean miner Edison Peña, who ran constantly when he was trapped in the San José mine, ran the New York marathon today.
In the mine he ran at least 10 kilometers a day, taking between 10 and 12 laps underground, with heavy rubber boots with steel tips. Peña said: “I ran inside the mine … I wanted to give a message to everybody”.
Peña was invited by the organizers of the marathon to be an honored guest, but he asked to participate instead.
It reminds me of something Viktor Frankl said:
"Our attitude towards what has happened to us in life is the important thing to recognize.
Once hopeless, my life is now hope-full, but it did not happen overnight.
The last of human freedoms, to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, is to choose one's own way."
~ Victor Frankl, "Man's Search for Meaning"
Capitalogix Commentary 11/08/10 - Don't Fight the Fed
The Markets are at recovery highs.
Traders should remember this important phrase: "Don't Fight the Fed". It applies here.
Think of Bernanke as the manager of the world's largest long-only fund. Further, imagine that his goal was to push prices higher. By the way, you don't have to imagine; he said so. To make sure you get the point, he even announced $600 billion of purchases to be made in the next 8-months - that's $75 billion a month. Regardless of whether you think it will work (or if it will be good for the market or the economy), when money is being pumped into the system at this rate, it is difficult to bet against stocks.
In addition, the market tends to do well after the mid-term elections, and going along with that, the 3rd year of a president’s term is historically the strongest.
With all that, it shouldn't surprise you that the stock market continued its bullish ways as investors seemed to applaud the election results, the Fed's second round of quantitative easing, and a decent jobs report.
Let's Look At Some Charts.
The S&P 500 Index broke out above the April high and closed at its highest level in two years. The breakout is significant – if it can hold. Double tops can produce strong pullbacks, but if the breakout holds, the rallies tend to do well. At point “A” below you can see that breakout in March of this year went on to several more weeks of positive gains until the peak in April.
An Influential Market Sector Is Perking Up.
Many traders believe the financial sector is the most influential group in terms of leading the market. Financials underperformed miserably in 2007 and 2008 and overall market performance followed suit. In 2009, financials outperformed and the market recovered a lot of its prior losses. So, where are they now?
The financials broke above key resistance. The Dow Jones US Financial Index finally broke above its key resistance level (marked by the red horizontal line at 271). With Bernanke's announcement of increased liquidity, as if on cue, the financials led on a relative basis last week and pulled the major indices higher with it. That 271 level now becomes excellent support.
Until the bears can tear down support on the financials at that level, it seems pretty solidly bullish. Expect some of the money that rotates out of other sectors to find a home in financials. That should spell solid outperformance in the near-term.
What is Really Out-Performing Year-To-Date?
The following chart illustrates the dominance of commodities so far this year. Check the numbers on the following YTD graphic from Finviz .
Puts things in perspective, and makes me think about inflation.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
- How to Profit From the Fed's New Moves. (WSJ)
- Investors Betting on Inflation are Doing Strange Things to the Bond Market. (Slate)
- Quantitative Easing Is Unloved & Unappreciated - But It Is Working. (Economist)
- Bloomberg's road to the White House. (TheWeek)
- Verizon's CEO Opens Up About Steve Jobs and Negotiating with Apple. (BizInsider)
- More Posts Moving the Markets.
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
- Tomorrow’s Internet: 1000 Times Faster. (KurzweilAI)
- Dawn of a New Day - Imagining A "Post-PC" World (Ray Ozzie & ZDNet)
- GOP Rout May Be Great News for Obama. (Newser)
- How Forethought (Not Intuition) Separates the Good from the Great. (HBR)
- Down Dog: Can Your Dog Be a Pessimist? A Bowl Half-Full or Half-Empty. (Reuters)
- More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.
An Angry America Gets What it Deserves (in pictures)
They say a country gets the politicians it deserves or perhaps it deserves the politicians it gets.
Rather than write a commentary on the politics of an angry electorate, I'll let pictures do the talking.
Here is the cover from this week's Economist.
Here is a chart from the NYTimes showing the historic shift away from Democrats.
Here is a political cartoon showing the pendulum swinging.
And here is a faux Sesame Street reminder of why it is important to play nicely with the other children.
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Capitalogix Commentary 11/29/10 - Have You Ever Seen a Leprechaun Beg?
The markets are showing remarkable resilience in the face of bad news and global unrest. This coming week will be another test, because of the uncertainty surrounding what's happening in Ireland, the fallout from insider trading investigations, and a somewhat oversold market.
Why should insider trading affect the market? Because institutional investors are going to try and get out of any fund they're worried about meeting part of that investigation. The result will be massive redemptions and a lot of selling. It is certainly something to watch.
Let's Look at World Markets.
It has been a tough two weeks for global markets. Most major indices are down; and, yet, that is not so bad considering the news about sovereign debt, war, and global cooperation.
Who Is Bailing Out Ireland?
Expect the questions about who will bail out Ireland to weigh on the markets. Here is a graphic that explains the situation (click on it for a bigger version).
What About the Euro?
According to the Financial Times, BlackRock's founder Larry Fink, founder of BlackRock, the world’s largest money manager, believes that the euro will fall sharply as a result of the escalating eurozone crisis and turmoil in financial markets.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Fink predicts that the single currency, battered this week by the fear that the fall-out from Ireland’s debt problems will spread to other countries including Portugal and Spain, will fall to $1.20 against the dollar, a slide of nearly 10 per cent.
What Level of Holiday Sales Will Santa Bring?
Another driver worth watching will be how the market responds to holiday sales. Black Friday is one thing; the issue is whether consumers will spend real money throughout the season.
Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:
Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week
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