Capitalogix

Contacts Scrubber for Outlook: A Neat Solution to a Messy Problem

Your contact database is becoming an increasingly important hub linking your personal, professional, and social life.  So it's not fun when that data gets messed-up.

If you are like me, over time, I combined contact records from different sources (e.g., cell phone, Microsoft Outlook, and web-mail accounts).  At some point, I ended up with more duplicate records than I wanted to handle manually.

The real issue was that not all the duplicate records were really "duplicates". Some of the information was the same, but other information was different. I wanted something that let me pick and choose what to keep, what to get rid of, and what to merge.

It's not just duplicate records; lots of other things can go wrong too. For example, somehow many of the birthdays in my contacts database got shifted by one day. That meant someone whose birthday was July 27th, didn't show up on my calendar until July 28th. That defeats the purpose of setting birthday reminders, doesn't it?  I had an older backup saved on the hard disk; but what about all the additions and changes I made since then?

It turns out there is an application that neatly fixes things in situations like those. It's called Contact Scrubber for Outlook by TeamScope.

I have used several versions of this software over time. Contacts Scrubber was already a fine solution to a messy problem; yet it keeps getting better. It handles most things automatically, while still giving you control (when you want it).

I'm happy to say that it worked beautifully. If you ever run into this problem, I suggest you give Contacts Scrubber a try.  It might save you a lot of time.  Bottom-Line: it is the easiest way I've found to merge & purge and end-up with accurate Outlook 2010 contact records.

Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 07/26/10

It was a strong week for the markets.  Normally, to get a sense of what's happening, I focus on the U.S. equity markets.  This week, however, I thought it made sense to start with a look at emerging markets around the world.  These markets are often referred to as BRICs.

Emerging Markets Lead Stock Rally.

At this point, foreign stocks are leading the U.S. stock market higher. Here is a chart showing that Emerging Market iShares recently broke above its June high.  Moreover, after breaking above the down-trend since April, it successfully re-tested that line (from above) and bounced higher. From a technical analysis perspective, those are bullish signs.

 

Here in America, it is earnings season, and companies have been reporting better news than most expected.  The economic news hasn't been stellar; but the markets have held up well.  This chart shows the S&P 500 Index at the top of hotly contested resistance level.

Many would take a sustained move above the 1120 level as a strong bullish sign.

With that said, business expansion is dragging and slowing the economic recovery, and it seems everyone is searching for reasons.

Debt Overhang.

In his new paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland researcher Filippo Occhino says a contributing factor may be something called debt overhang. Simply put, when companies have too much debt it discourages them and their investors from taking on projects because the debt consumes any profits the investors might make, even in situations when the investment raises equity in the company.

Watch the Debt Overhang Video from the Cleveland Fed.

A different slant on the debt problem is illustrated below.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• What VIX Futures Tell Us About October: Is Something Really Scary Coming? (FT Alphaville)
• Goldman Sachs' Global Leading Indicator Rolls Over. (PragCap)
• Goldman Sachs $550 Million Fine Amounts to Only One Week's Trading Profits. (Citywire)
• Indian Court Rules that Hindu Gods Can't Trade Shares. (CrossingWallSt)
• What’s Really Going on in the VC Industry & What Does it Mean for Startups? (BothSides)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Microsoft Releases Beta of Upgraded Security Essentials. (PCWorld)
• Are You Part of the Botnet Army? What You Can Do To Protect Yourself. (NewNewInternet)
• Would You Eat Synthetic Meat? It Will Probably Taste Like Chicken. (The Week)
• Perdue recalls 90,000 pounds of chicken nuggets that may contain pieces of plastic. (CNN)
• Why a Scientist is Challenging Whether Gravity Exists. (NYTimes)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

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• Bad harvest of recovery green shoots (financialpost.com)
• DJIA Rises 3.2% on the Week (online.wsj.com)
• Latin American Markets: Brazil, Mexico stocks gain after stress tests (marketwatch.com)
• Sentiment Overview: Week Of July 23rd, 2010 (tradersnarrative.com)
• Goldman Sachs Profit Plunges as Trading Revenue Drops (businessweek.com)

Interesting TedTalk with Nicholas Christakis About Our Modern, Connected Lives

We're all embedded in vast social networks of friends, family, co-workers and more. Nicholas Christakis tracks how a wide variety of traits -- from happiness to obesity -- can spread from person to person, showing how your location in the network might impact your life in ways you don't even know.

His work shows how phenomena as diverse as obesity, smoking, emotions, ideas, germs, and altruism can spread through our social ties, and how genes can partially underlie our creation of social ties to begin with. His work also sheds light on how we might take advantage of an understanding of social networks to make the world a better place.

Christakis explains that he and James Fowler (co-author of Connected) have become obsessed with trying to figure out how and why we form networks and how and why they affect us.

Once you start mapping these networks -- they’re so intricate and so beautiful and so interesting -- you just can’t help but wonder why we humans make them. Why does a spider weave its web? Why does the web have a particular kind of shape? It’s not a coincidence. You look at these webs and you think, “My God, what purpose do they serve? And, how do they affect us?”

Watch his TedTalk presentation, "The Hidden Influence of Social Networks".

Here is the web site for their book Connected.  And here is a link to another interview.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Happiness and Sadness Spread Just Like Disease (simoleonsense.com)
• Is Divorce Contagious? (freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com)
• Has a plague of social illness struck mankind? (slate.com)

Too True Video: It's the Dad Life

It may be a little after Father's Day; but it still seems like a good time for a video like this.  Tongue in cheek, a little faux rap, and fun ... Watch Dad Life.

Hat tip to Ken Dennard.

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• Your Father's Day Leadership Lesson (kevineikenberry.com)
• Clips from the Sh*t My Dad Says Pilot [VIDEO] (mashable.com)
• The Jetpacks Are Coming! The Jetpacks Are Coming! (thebigmoney.com)

Cartoon: Woo-Hoo! We've Stopped the Oil!!

Is the glass half-empty, or is the glass half full?

It's easy for cartoonists to make fun of how long it took to stop the oil leak.

Nonetheless, it will certainly be a lot easier to clean up the mess now that were not making more of it.

Here's to progress.

Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 07/19/10

If only everything could be fixed this easily.

It is earnings season again.  However, note that the year-to-year comparison no longer refers to the recession. Instead, the comparisons get harder than last year. Moreover, the economic data has been ugly ... and so has sentiment on quarterly earnings.  The question becomes: how tough will it be for Wall Street to battle back from the latest sell-off?

Market Commentary

The chart below shows a daily view of the Nasdaq composite index since January. Note, however, that this market has been making lower highs and lower lows since April. That is the classic definition of a downtrend.

In addition, chart watchers often pay attention to a pattern called a Death Cross. This occurs when the short-term (50 day) moving average crosses beneath the longer-term (200 day) moving average. As you can see, a death cross happened last week.  It is highlighted in yellow and circled in orange. Since then, the market has fallen further.

Is a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity Drying-Up?

If you are looking for insight into global supply and demand trends, the Baltic Dry Index is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It offers a real-time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand, as well as the supply of ships available to move this type of cargo.

According to Bloomberg, Commodity shipping rates ended their longest losing streak in almost 15 years on speculation owners are refusing to offer vessels at current hire rates. 

The index has had a particularly bad run of 35 consecutive drops, the longest since November 1995,  during which the measure lost 60 percent of its value. Since making a short-term peak in late May (about a month after equity markets peaked), the index has declined about 60%.

Just in case you wanted more fear fodder to chew on, Here is a chart that is making the rounds.

De-Leveraging the Credit Bubble.

It purports to show that the total leverage within the world financial system currently stands at 60 to 1, where we are leveraged 60 to the 1 of real reserves we actually have. 

Christopher Laird explains this chart as follows:

The point of emphasizing it's from the end of WW2 is that we are not talking merely about a banking crisis, or whatever. We are talking about the deleveraging of the greatest economic/finance bubble in history. Once the level of leverage reached 60 to 1, it becomes impossible to stay ahead of the deleveraging, even for central banks. The implications are staggering. Every major economy in the world is involved. The outcomes of deleveraging this monster bubble, represented by the green oval, will be what I term Credit Crisis II. At 60 to 1 leverage, a loss of 1 to 2% wipes out the capital.

Let's hope that doesn't happen.  On the other hand, there has been a lively debate about what the chart really means.  For further insight on this, check-out the comment section on the Business Insider's Chart of the Day post about this topic.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Ten Reasons to Be Bullish & One BIG Reason to Be Bearish. (TradersNarrative)
• Behavioral Finance’s Smoking Gun: Probability Analysis Isn't Rationality. (PsyFi)
• Jumping Back Into Bonds: Investing With an Eye on Absolute Return. (WSJ)
• Insane Bulls And Bears - or - The Men Who Want to Be Roubini. (Forbes)
• Mao Zedong's Creation, Agricultural Bank of China Raises $19 Billion in I.P.O. (NYTimes)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Four Styles to Consider When Constructing your Innovation Portfolio. (BizWeek)
• Clear and Present Danger - The Increasing Threat of Cyber-Attacks & Hackers. (Wharton)
• Google Voice Officially Launches To The Public. (LATimes)
• Apple Studies User Downloads to Hone Mobile Ads and Take-On Google. (BusinessWeek)
• Picking Our Brains: How Strong is the Mind-Body Link? (NewScientist)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

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• Death Cross History (yelnick.typepad.com)
• Death Cross Creates Life for Bonds (pragcap.com)
• Sentiment Overview: Week Of July 16th, 2010 (tradersnarrative.com)
• Weekly Sector Report | 07/16/10 (by Leisa) (slopeofhope.com)
• Don't panic, the Baltic dry is a rubbish indicator! (ftalphaville.ft.com)

Stephen Hawking Shares Thoughts on the Universe, Religion, and Love

Celebrated physicist Stephen Hawking knows more about the universe than almost any other person ever to walk the planet, but some answers still escape even him.

When asked by ABC News' Diane Sawyer about the biggest mystery he'd like solved, he said, "I want to know why the universe exists, why there is something greater than nothing." 

Other topics covered include: how Hawking reconciles the idea of religion and science; and what he considers the best and worst decisions of our generation.

So, watch this video as the physicist discusses everything from the universe to family.

Here is more from Diane Sawyer's interview with Stephen Hawking.

Here is a picture showing Hawking trying out Zero Gravity.

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• Stephen Hawking On Religion: 'Science Will Win' (VIDEO) (huffingtonpost.com)
• Father de Souza: Why there is something, not nothing (fullcomment.nationalpost.com)
• Stephen Hawking says Earth should not phone ET (newscientist.com)
• Theories of everything: Seven ways to know God's mind (newscientist.com)
• 10 cool things you didn't know about Stephen Hawking (holykaw.alltop.com)

Capitalogix Commentary for the Markets - 07/12/10

It was a strong week in the markets, all over the world.  Here is a graphic that will show you how well everyone did.  It comes from FT.

So, while things are looking better, let's look at a chart of what's happening on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Dow's Down-trend Is Still Clear.

May and June were volatile months for the stock market. The Dow moved within a 1400 point range in May and an 800 point range in June. Over the last seven days, the Dow moved from 10136 to 9614 and back to 10136. Basically, we saw two 500 point swings in seven trading days.

The Dow's daily Rate-of-Change is shown int the indicator below the main chart,. It illustrates another form of volatility. Moves outside of the -2% to 2% range (marked by the blue line) were rare from August to April. Notice how the Rate-of-Change dipped above 2% and below 2% numerous times since early May (marked by the pink highlight).

On the price chart, a falling wedge is taking shape. According to Arthur Hill, these patterns sometimes denote a correction within a bigger uptrend. However, they are clearly bearish as long as they fall. In other words, the trend is down as long as the wedge falls. The Dow needs to clear the April trend-line first, and then the June high, to reverse this downtrend.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Did Dykstra Secretly Sell Access to Cramer & Stock Endorsements on TheStreet? (TDB)
• For Small Companies, the Credit Crunch Hasn't Gone Away. Here's Why. (WSJ)
• The Pendulum Swings Toward Austerity. Goodbye Big Government? (NYTimes)
• Greece Starts Putting Island Land Up For Sale to Save Economy. (Guardian)
• Rewriting the Rules of Wall Street: a Good Start to Financial Reform. (Economist)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• The Male "Pill": 100% Effective & Only Four Pills Per Year. (Newser)
• Kindle Economics: E-Readers Are Looking More Like Razors & Blades. (Forbes)
• Idea Incubators Go to College to Launch Entrepreneurial Ventures. (NYTimes)
• The Ten Most Disturbing Scientific Discoveries. (Smithsonian)
  
• Pretty Funny - The 100 Greatest Movie Insults of All Time. (SomeECards)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

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• Small Investors Flee Stocks (online.wsj.com)
• Lowry Research Update: Just A Bull Market Correction (tradersnarrative.com)
• Surprise: Investor Sentiment Isn't Even That Bearish Yet (businessinsider.com)
• Time to Board the Gold Stocks Train? (pragcap.com)

Are You Happy?

A simple flow chart caught my eye this week.

There is a bit of truth in that; isn't there?

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• What's the relationship between money, ambition, and happiness? (simoleonsense.com)
• Can being happy make you less able to resist temptation? (simoleonsense.com)
• How to boost workplace happiness (holykaw.alltop.com)

Starting to See More IPO and Merger & Acquisition Activity

Initial Public Offerings are an indicator of market health. Well, here is some good news.  More venture-backed companies have had IPOs this year than there were in the last two years combined.

The bad news is that the market has not been kind to these newly public companies. Scott Austin at the WSJ notes that only six of this year's venture backed IPOs are above their first day of trading.

For example, a recent IPO with a lot of "buzz" was Tesla.  The enthusiasm generated for Tesla's stock during its first day on the market has waned. After reaching almost $30, Tesla faded fast. It's back down to $17.40.  Here is the chart.

Nonetheless, I'm starting to see more articles about M&A activity too.  I take the increase in IPO and M&A activity as a positive economic sign.  What about you?

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• IPOs heat up in Q2, but red flags appear (vator.tv)
• U.S. venture-backed IPOs show rebound as M&A slips (reuters.com)
• IPO market shows signs of life (techflash.com)
• IPOs make a comeback, but it's a shaky one (venturebeat.com)
• The Real Imapct of Tesla's IPO: A Spur to Cleantech (thebigmoney.com)