Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 03/29/10

Markets climb a wall of worry ... but I don't recall a bull run, like we've seen recently, with so much fear and loathing as a back-drop.

The U.S. equity markets have held-up remarkably well, and much better than I expected.

Yet, the Euro continues to struggle.  It is worth noting that  some traders believe that the Euro can be used to predict the S&P 500.  So, here is a daily chart showing that price is at the mid-line of the downwards sloping trend channel.

Here is a different way of looking at the Euro's woes.

Here is someone else betting against the Euro.

Jim Rogers Guarantees Another Recession.

George Soros' ex-partner at the Quantum Fund isn't afraid to share his thoughts.  In a recent CNBC interview, Jim says he doesn't pay attention to the Fed, and that he expects Western Currencies to be weak. However, many will focus on these comments: “Yes, we’re going to have another recession, I guarantee you … By 2012 say, it’s time for another recession, ... and the next time it’s going to be worse, because we’ve shot all of our bullets”. Here is the video.

For a different look at how the economy's recovery is doing, here is a look at consumer spending.

Is Consumer Spending a Reliable Leading Indicator of GDP?

The Consumer Metrics Institute produces a U.S. consumption index based on actual transaction data for a range of major discretionary purchases such as cars, houses, durable goods, and vacations. As such, this index was designed to react quickly to significant consumer spending changes in a number of different segments of economy.

As shown below, their 'Growth Index' has led changes in U.S. GDP reasonably well. Currently, it disagrees strongly with the upbeat story portrayed by other leading indicator indices.

I hope you have a good week.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Review of Hank Paulson's New Memoir from Inside the Crisis. (Slate)
• Apple Races to Strike Content Deals Ahead of iPad Release. (WSJ)
• Google's Failed Search for Business in China. (Economist)
• The Problematic Nature of New Short Selling Restrictions. (AdvancedTrading)
  
• New Exit Strategies For Venture Capitalists. (Forbes)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Pandora's New Business Model on Track for $100 Million This Year. (econsultancy)
• Brain Scans Could Be the Marketing Tool of the Future. (Duke)
• Video Game 'Console Killer' OnLive to Launch this June. (Newser)
• Orthorexia: Can Healthy Eating Be Labeled a Disorder? (Time)
• Futuristic Minority Report Computer Interface Makes A Real-Life Debut (Geek)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Leading Indicators and Breaking the Money Supply Log Jam (seekingalpha.com)
• Thoughts on Jim Rogers' Take on Greece, Euro (seekingalpha.com)
• Is the Government Understating the Severity of the Recession? (pragcap.com)
• China and the New American Manufacturing Paradigm (yelnick.typepad.com)