Capitalogix

Capitalogix Commentary 03/06/09

You've probably heard the joke about the difference between a recession and a depression.  It's a recession when your neighbor loses their job; and it's a depression when you lose yours. 

Here is a cartoon that pokes fun at something similar.

The 1929 crash got off to a much faster start, but we have now more or less caught up.  That isn't as funny because of how true it is becoming.

Bespoke had an interesting tidbit, only 5% of stocks in the S&P 500 are still trading above their 50-day moving averages.  Three sectors -- financials, industrials, and utilities -- have zero stocks trading above their 50-days.  Technology has the highest percentage of stocks above their 50-days at just 12%.

Because of the unrelenting selling, many believe that stocks are ripe for a bounce. Supporting that are several reasonably reliable indicators.  The first is that Smart Money is continuing to get more bullish (while retail investors continue to get more bearish).  We are getting close to levels that often signify rallies.  Similarly the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported the highest level of bearishness (over 70%) since they started measuring in 1987. This is often construed as a contrarian indicator, since the highest levels of bearishness often occur at market bottoms.  So at least now you can feel good that people feel bad.

Sometimes the truth in humor tells the story better than other methods.  Here is a clip from Jon Stewart's Daily Show.  In it, he does what he does to CNBC.  It's pretty funny.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CNBC Gives Financial Advice

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Joke of the Day

Here are a Few of the Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• GE Shares Fall to 18-Year Lows. (WSJ)
• Unemployment Rate surges to 8.1% - Worst since 1983. (Guardian)
• Gates foundation sells-off $100 million of Buffett shares. (CNet)
• Sentiment Overview for the Week. (Trader's Narrative)

And, Here are a Few More Lighter Ideas and Fun Links:

• How to Be an Angel Investor. (Paul Graham)
• Brief book summary of Jim Collins' "Good to Great". Interesting. (Brevity Brief)
• Is web-design becoming more blog-like because of Search? (Forbes)
• Silly service translates and dumbs-down what you say. (Untelligencer)

Social Media 101 - The Name Land-grab

Real Estate is about location, location, location.  That's true on the web as well.  Years ago, I watched people rush to register Internet domains.  Well it's happening again; only this time it is on a wide-range of social media sites.

Before I go further, or before you decide to skip to the next article, here's a piece of advice worth paying attention taking; Register your name, your company name, and any other product or keyword you want to protect on Twitter.

I'll take that even further; register those names on other social media services as well. I'm talking about companies like Facebook, LinkedIn, FriendFeed, StumbleUpon, and Digg. Even if you don't believe you'll use the service, you may not want someone else talking to the public using a name that they may associate with you. Here is a link to a service that helps you reserve your name.

I watched my kids use instant messages, texting from their phones, and then Facebook. Slowly I've adopted these technologies. Still, it's hard for me to believe that I'm using Twitter.  If you're not using them yet, you probably will soon.

The Big Three:

LinkedIn is the most corporate of the services. It's an enhanced resume with a clever algorithm to figure out how you can connect to someone else. So, if I wanted to contact Mark Cuban, it would tell me which of my director second level contacts have contacts with him.

Facebook used to be for college students, but has quickly become the most popular social media application. I'm amazed at how many business people use this as their primary form of keeping in touch with people socially.  The Facebook platform is evolving quickly and is very easy to customize by telling it that you want to see you more of this and less of that.

Twitter is getting popular quickly; and it has a lot of business momentum.  It drives traffic and is quickly becoming useful as form of search engine that shows trends and what's happening right now.  I see more third party development and support for Twitter than the other platforms combined.  I didn't "get" Twitter at first; but it is growing on me.

Here is a cartoon comparing the three services.

• On LinkedIn it seems like connections are made based on worthiness. 
• On Facebook connections are based on how you know the other person
  (and it's common to have more Facebook friends been LinkedIn connections).
• On Twitter your follower list is more elastic; people will come and people will go
  (and it's common to have more Twitter followers than Facebook friends). 

So go register some names, and next time I'll share some of the tools I use to make using social media easier and more productive.

Does the Kindle 2 Make Sense?

The world is changing quickly. Just because you made money a certain way for a long time doesn't mean that this is how you'll continue to make money in the future. In fact the practical realities of time and technology suggest that this is not the case.  In this environment, you have to adapt and re-invent yourself.

Creative Destruction in the Publishing Industry:

Think about what has happened to publishing in the past decade. I'm talking about: television, movies, and music ... but also newspapers, magazines, and the book industry.

Personally, I read more than I ever did before; but I hardly ever go to a bookstore. I buy a lot less magazines than I used to; and I have to think hard to remember the last time I purchased a CD.

That doesn't mean people aren't making money in these areas. I suspect it just means that different people are making the money. The industry is changing. It's a new game, with new rules, and new opportunities.

How the Kindle Changes Amazon's Business Model:

I've had the new Kindle 2 for about two weeks; and I like a lot.  I'm impressed by the machine, but I'm more impressed with the business platform that Amazon is creating.

Yes, they're going to sell a lot of books on the Kindle.  Amazon will build a base of brand-loyal Kindle users.

Plain and simple, though, the Kindle is going to change Amazon's business model.

Right now bestsellers cost $9.99 (which I suspect is a loss leader because they still have to buy the book from a traditional publisher) and certainly cannibalizes their business of selling paper books.

They are signaling that they expect to make money differently in the future. That is part of the reason I like Amazon's decision to invest so heavily in the Kindle platform. It's a subsidized campaign to bridge to a new business model.

You Will Have Access to New and Extended Forms of Content.

More avenues will open to profit in different ways.  For example, I expect that Amazon will soon sell a paper copy of the book along with an electronic version for premium price. And you'll also soon have the ability to unlock more features.  That means that you'll be able to pay to consume what you choose (whether that's a one-time viewing, a permanent license, the right to print, share, or listen to the audio version or watch the multimedia presentation version of the content).

They have an opportunity to re-define what you consider a "book" as well. And I predict that it won't be long before you can buy a book that is electronically enhanced with expanded content. Here is how I envision that might work. For example, let's say you buy a book on blogging. It might describe how to set up an account with TypePad or WordPress. The enhanced version of the book, which you paid extra for, could have links and setup wizards to do a lot of the heavy lifting for you. Do you want to allow search engines to index your new posts? Here's how to do it, and click this button to have us set it up for you.

Think about how many areas would benefit from this marriage of content and skills transfer what about a book on trading that helped you build the pattern recognition or money management rules into your charting software or trading platform?

Trojan Horse Strategy: This Will Turn the Publishing Industry Upside-Down.

I think the bigger opportunity is the Trojan horse that turns the publishing industry upside down.

Think about how hard it's been for a new author to get a book published. Even before that, they had to find an agent. If that happens and they withstand the countless rounds of rejection, then the publishing house decides if one and how the book is released and the artist gets perhaps a dollar per book.

In the near future, an author who understands social media and generating buzz published their book or pamphlet through Amazon's Kindle channel and keep the majority of the money. It's faster, frictionless, and more lucrative. 

And Amazon can start to cut-out that pesky middle-man.  Why deal with a publisher, when you can let the author believe they are the publisher?  With this model, there is more margin for everyone (except the old-line publishers, who better be re-inventing themselves with a new value proposition).

It's Not Just About the Publishing Industry; They're Out To Change Your Industry Too.

As Amazon builds up the infrastructure to run their business, they've decided that they're willing to sell their excess capacity to you with a new product line of Amazon Web Services. It's on-demand technology capacity that is flexible, state-of-the-art and cost-effective.

Yes, there is still a need for humans. So it's no surprise that Amazon has a new line of business they call the Mechanical Turk. And it's a marketplace for humans to do the work you want to outsource. It leverages Amazon's marketplace catalog and is another example of how they're becoming vertically integrated and well-positioned for the future.

As a consumer, I like what I see; and it's only going to get better.

Bottom Line:  Amazon's competitors and suppliers are going to have to adjust their business models.

But the real point wasn't just about Amazon's foresight or skill. It's a challenge and a a wake-up call-to-action for you to look at what you do, and what you need to do ... and for you to figure-out what your future company and the future you is going to focus on and do to succeed.  The environment is changing.  It is time to adapt and re-invent yourself.

Capitalogix Commentary 02/27/09

This drawing made me smile, even though the market continued down.

Sentiment is bearish; not surprising since we're at market lows not seen in 12 years.  You know it's bad out there.  But to put it in perspective, Bespoke presents some sobering stats in "Ugly Stock Stats From an Ugly Bear."

Adding to the market's concerns, here is a chart showing that Goldman Sachs slashed their S&P 500 Earnings Forecast.  They are expecting a peak-to-trough decline of 56% (behind only the Great Depression and WW1).

 

And here is a chart showing the deterioration of major bank market caps since 2007. The Blue Bubbles show market value in Q2-07, while the Green Bubbles show recent values.

(hat tip to Phil's Stock World)

Regardless of the data, the real question is whether it will get better or worse from here?  

Here is a positive sign. Smart Money is starting to get more bullish (while retail investors continue to get more bearish).  We are not yet at the levels that often signify rallies, but we are closer.  

As we get closer to intermediate-term lows, I pay more attention to Sentiment measures. So I'll be keeping an eye on Trader's Narrative because they have lots of good content.

I added a feature to the website this week.  A place where I link to the news that catches my eye.  I'll continue to post the best links here, and I'll have a bunch more for you on the blog.

Here are a Few of the Business Posts I Found Interesting This Week:

• VC's Top-Ten Reasons Start-Ups Fail. (Tim Draper)
• What Warren Buffet Told His Shareholders? (CNBC)
• PDF of Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway 2008 Annual Letter to Investors. (BH)
• The Smart Growth Manifesto - It's Time to Reboot Capitalism. (Harvard Business)

And, Here are a Few More Lighter Ideas and Fun Links:

• A Nice Collection of Ancient Greek Wisdom and Quotes. (MSU)
• Nation Instinctively Forms Breadline - Gallows Humor. (The Onion)
• India Patenting Yoga Move to Protect Them from Western Pirates. (Neatorama)
• A Site for Amazon Kindle Users. (Kindle Nation)

The Anxiety Antitidote

"When the trough gets smaller ... the pigs get meaner."

     - Dan Sullivan

Likewise, in uncertain times, it is natural for people to worry that there will be less for them. 

But it doesn't have to be that way.

All We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself.  I keep talking about market psychology and human nature. The reason is that markets are really a reflection of the collective fear and greed of its participants. And people tend to get paralyzed during scary times like these.

But it's not the economy that makes people feel paralyzed. People feel paralyzed because of their reactions and their beliefs about the economy.

A little examination reveals that most fear is based on a "general" rather than a "specific" trigger. In other words people are afraid of all the things that could happen and are paralyzed by the sheer scope of possibilities. These things don't even have to be probabilities in order to scare them.

Your Antidote to Anxiety.  You gain a competitive advantage as soon as you recognize that it's simply human nature when you "make things up" to scare yourself.  Why?  Because as soon as you distinguish that fear is just an automatic response and not necessarily "true", you can re-use your energy and insights to focus on things that move you forward.

It's easy to be a lot more resourceful by simply dealing with the specific items, and coming up with a plan to deal with them or transform them into opportunities.

Even a tough environment, like this, presents you with opportunities if you watch for them ... or even better, if you create them.

First Impressions of the New Kindle.

Frankly, I didn't think I would love it. I was wrong.  Perhaps more important than just "loving it", I like using it.

It's thin, light, and easy-to-read. At first I wasn't sure it felt right ... But, at first, I didn't buy the leather cover. Believe it or not, that made a big difference. I like that it now feels like a "book" in my hands. There is a lot to like, and I got used to it very quickly.

A Mini Feature Review:  Here are the basics.

• Terrific Display: it uses fast and crisp E-Ink technology;
• Huge Capacity: it will hold over 1,500 books;
• Wireless: it has built-in free access to Sprint's data network;
• Great Battery Life: it lasts for more that 4-days worth of reading, even with the wireless on;
• Built-in Keyboard: to annotate text, or to use search capabilities and the Internet;
• Text-to-Speech: surprisingly well done and useful while driving or doing things.

Looking Good Is A Good First Step.  While I was waiting for my Kindle to come, I guess the thing I questioned most was whether I'd actually read on it.  Right out-of-the-box, my first impression was that the Kindle had a great display.  I took it outside, and it still looked terrific, even in the bright sunlight. I did have to adjust the font size for it to feel "right" to me. However, it was easy to figure out what felt natural (and here is a hint for the older readers ... at night, a slightly bigger size is what feels natural to me).

Having Lots Of Things To Read Is Nice Too. Carrying a bookcase full of books in pencil-thin package is pretty cool.

There's over a quarter million books available for the Kindle, and that number is growing rapidly. Many best-sellers are just $9.99, which is much cheaper than the paper versions.  In addition to books, Amazon has made it easy to read web and blog content with the built-in browser and free Sprint data network. Also, you can convert and transfer Microsoft Office and PDF files by e-mailing them to your Kindle's e-mail address.

Cheap Is Good, Free is Better.  To get you used to reading on the Kindle and using Amazon's store to get the content, they've made an impressive amount of books free. The first book I downloaded was a free copy of the Bible. I heard it was a Good Book. That's good business on many levels.

Download Sample Chapters To Make Sure You Like It.  Taking that concept a little further, Amazon also makes it easy to download a few sample chapters of many books to your Kindle before buying. This has already changed how I use Amazon, and it adds a key benefit that the storefront bookstores relied on, browsing several books to find the one that suits me. Now, I can do that anywhere and anytime.

And once the sample is on your Kindle, it's only takes one-click to get the whole thing. It's all very fast, very convenient, and very clever marketing.

Yes, I sense it's the future. And I'm a gadget guy who loves to play with the future early. However, I'm also a gadget guy who has a pretty big gadget graveyard for things that didn't work so well. The Kindle works well. I can tell because I'm using it more, not less.

All-in-all, I'm impressed.  Next time, I will talk about the business implications of the Kindle on Amazon and its customers, competitors, and suppliers.  Till then, here are a few other links worth exploring.

• Amazon's Kindle 2 Page With Pictures and Demos
• RadarFarm's News Links about the Kindle 2
• MobileRead's Wiki Page for the Kindle 2