Capitalogix

The Power of Asking The Right Questions

There's immense power in asking the right questions. 

Finding the right answers can be valuable too - but I'd argue finding the right questions is more important than finding the right answers. 

To some extent, if you ask the right questions, the answers don't matter as much as how easy it was to find appropriate answers, proof of progress, or meaningful momentum.

I shot this short video on the power of asking the right questions. Check it out. 

 

The exercise of asking the right questions is really an exercise in the power of framing - of digesting or accessing information differently. There's power even in the reframing of the same question:  "How do I survive the pandemic shelter-in-place quarantine?" vs. "In what ways has the pandemic shelter-in-place quarantine improved my relationships (or productivity, or health)?" 

In my experience, asking someone what they want often results in a response about what they don't want.  Yet, when the obstacle becomes the path forward it becomes easier to find the "hidden" gift.

You control what you make things mean and how things make you feel. In many respects, this is the difference between feeling sad or happy or feeling like a victim versus someone in control of their destiny.  Your ability to control your perception is the difference between feeling like life happens to you or for you. 

It's the same when tackling a research problem. When I hear "it can't be done" my first thought is usually "It can be done ... just not the way you were thinking about it."

The most important advances in society were impossible until they weren't.  The examples are too numerous to list.  But imagine telling someone in the middle ages that you could communicate with people around the globe in real-time, while seeing their faces, and sharing documents.  They'd try you as a witch faster than you could say "Zoom!" 

The term Moonshot, in a technology context, is an ambitious, exploratory, and ground-breaking project that was considered to be impossible (like going to the Moon).

Success is often a function of using Moonshots to set direction, then asking the right questions, being willing to see things differently, and finding a way to move in the right direction while gaining capabilities and confidence.  As long as you are doing those things, the trick is to keep going until you get there.  The result is inevitable if you do those things and don't give up.

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 24th, 2020

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• We are Doing in a Few Months What Would Normally Take a Drug Development Process Years to Do' with AI. (ZDNet)
• Findings From The AI Index Annual Report. (Stanford-AI)
• Terrifying Black Light Videos Show How Easy It Is to Catch Coronavirus. (BGR)
• Why Zoom Meetings are So Dissatisfying. (Economist)
• Travelers Now Scoring $700 Business Class Flights to Europe with Sneaky Loophole. (DMarge)

 

Trading Links:

• Hertz Files for Bankruptcy after 16,000 Employees Were Let Go. (Forbes)
• One Chart to Catch You up on 2020 ... And the Economy. (HowardLindzon)
• Second Stimulus Check Proposes $1,200 Extra with Round 2. Here's the Situation. (CNet)
• The World's 25 Richest Billionaires Have Gained Nearly $255 Billion in Just Two Months. (Forbes)
• What History Tells Us about the Accelerating AI Revolution. (Wall Street Journal)

Cap And Frown: The Future of Higher Education

Many of my friends have children either in high school or college. 

Watching various graduation ceremonies - it's clear that this was an abnormal year for graduates.  That being said, I've been impressed with the sense of greater community that being isolated from your local community can give. 

via The Atlantic

The coronavirus pandemic has put schools and students in an interesting predicament. 

While the short-term ramifications have mainly targeted students, the long-term ramifications will also greatly impact schools. 

Lockdown orders have put massive financial stress on schools. Scrambling to get students educated, building online materials, purchasing software, etc. all take massive amounts of money. On top of that, many universities have had to issue refunds for various services that students weren't able to receive. 

We often think about how severely the pandemic and quarantine have affected hotels and air travel, but education was hit equally as hard. 

I'm interested to see how schools will recover. Some universities are staying online for the fall semester, some are downsizing and cutting programs,  some are reducing tuition ... but many are afraid of their financial model breaking under the pressure (regardless of the size of their endowment). 

With nearly infinite education available online for free (including from universities), this could be a chance for a new educational model... time will tell. 

What do you think is going to happen?

Putting 2020's Job Losses in Perspective

Despite rolling re-openings, the economic effects of this "great lockdown" are still mounting. 

More than 36 million unemployment claims have been filed in the last two months - with 3 million coming last week. Over 14.7% of the population is unemployed. 

via NY Times

That being said, just like with COVID-19 cases, we're past the peak. 

Unfortunately, also like COVID-19 cases, the consequences are protracted, and we're unsure if any of our treatment plans are truly alleviating the problem. 

The speed of this shutdown and its impact on employment has been almost unprecedented.

(April 17th, 2020) via visual capitalist

During the Great Depression, unemployment reached 24.9%, and there is no modern equivalent. Today, that would leave 41 million Americans out of work. But the short-term effects of this lockdown are significantly worse than anything in recent memory. 

Luckily, the current crisis is happening on a much faster scale than any of the previous examples. The aforementioned crises generally took several years to happen with unemployment peaking at the tail-end of the recessions. Perhaps we have already passed the peak in only two months?  Same story, different topic ... are the financial markets.  The hit was deeper and quicker than in previous crises, as long as you think the damage has already been done.

Due to this situation stemming from a global pandemic, which resulted in a forced lockdown ... there is an argument to be made for this not being a normal crash.  As a result, there's room for optimism (or skepticism).

Frankly, this is an unprecedented situation.  Governments have taken massive action.  We all know they don't do these types of things during good times.  The question is will it be enough, and if so, for how long? 

Also, actions have consequences.   If governments can really do this, and it works, then why wouldn't they continue?

I suspect because it doesn't really work ... or at least, too much of a good thing is bad for you too.

As normal economic activity resumes, I look forward to seeing how much of the damage is temporary. There are clearly industries that were hit hard - air travel, hotels, etc. - but almost all industries expect to see a rebound. 

Meanwhile, even though Georgia reopened, their initial jobless claims are still rising. Unemployment tracks the business cycle, so as businesses and spending ramp back up, the response should accelerate.  But, it's unclear when that will happen and how protracted the pain will be.

As a reminder, though the lockdown is ending, the economic effects will ripple for a long-time. The length of the ripples depends on our response. 

We live in interesting times!

Working From Home... Forever?

Almost everyone - barring essential workers - has been working from home for over two months at this point. 

So, on some level, we all have a pretty good understanding of the pros and cons of the work-from-home lifestyle. Despite some of the potential detriments, many companies are realizing that productivity hasn't dropped the way they expected. 

In fact, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, just announced that henceforth his employees won't have the obligation of coming into the office. They can work from home forever if that's what they choose. 

via Dilbert (September 1995)

It's interesting to see how fast this pandemic changed "normal" in regard to business operations, shopping, etc. It is another reminder of how adaptable humans and society are – and how that has helped us survive and thrive throughout time. 

My team has been working remotely since the beginning of March, and so far they've stepped up to the challenge. I've been impressed with the productivity, the hours they've worked, and the connection and collaboration achieved despite the loss of physical proximity.  I've heard similar stories from friends around the globe, in many industries.

Nonetheless, I don't believe that the level of remote work and productivity we've experienced will continue.  Several things contributed to this level of productivity and output.  First, the world shut down and people had little else to do.  Second, during scary times, doing something productive and feeling like you are contributing are both comforting and therapeutic.   Third, I feel like people felt that it was an "all hands on deck" emergency, where many companies or industries were fighting for survival. 

Time kills all things ... and part of adapting is to make the "New", well, "Normal".

That doesn't mean that remote work is bad.  Nor does it mean that we can't learn from the experience.  It is just that the shiny newness will fade and human nature will kick back in as we settle into the new normal.

Texas is supposedly "Open for Business" – but our office will remain mostly unused.  A survey of our team found that 75% didn't believe it was smart or safe to return to the office yet. 

Our next target date is June 15th.  In the meantime, the office is open for people who want or need it.  We just don't expect many to be there.

We are better at the skills, tools, and mindsets that make remote work possible or profitable.  Still, I'm curious how time and human nature will affect the level of work done in the next month (compared to what was done or achieved in the prior month).  What we do now really does have the power to change the future.

Personally, to keep productivity up while at home, I've dedicated a certain space - and time - to work. That routine, combined with not muddying the space with other activities, has been helpful. A side benefit is that I've also made time for mindfulness and exercise.  Combine that with healthier food (meaning way fewer restaurant meals or entertainment calories) and the health benefits are obvious.

What habits do you want to bring back to your world when it re-opens?

I'm also curious to hear about the methods and tools you're using to stay productive.   

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 17th, 2020

It is important to keep your priorities straight when evaluating risk versus reward.  I think we do it well here in Texas.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Four Simple Behaviors to Protect Your Focus and Free Your Time, from a Behavioral Scientist. (Medium)
• Humans are Complicated – Do We Need Behavioral Science to Get through This? (ArsTechnica)
• NFL Schedule Hints at Determination to Conduct Week One, Then Reassess. (ProFootballTalk)
• Moving to an ‘Everything as Code' World.(VentureBeat)
• 5 Reasons Why Artificial Intelligence Really Is Going to Change Our World. (Forbes)

 

Trading Links:

• New York Stock Exchange to Resume Some Floor Trading May 26. (TheStreet)
• Where Global Money is Placing Bets as Stimulus Floods Markets. (Bloomberg)
• A Leveraged Buyout of the US: Why America Can Print Its Way out of Any Crisis. (Worth)
• When Warren Buffett Sours on Goldman Sachs, Time to Worry. (Bloomberg)
• Will the Stock Market Tumble Back to Its Coronavirus Lows in March? About 92 Years of S&P 500 History Says There's a Good Chance. (MarketWatch)

 

Selective Attention: What Are You Missing?

Sticking with the philosophy theme, I encourage you to watch this video below on selective attention. 

Daniel Simons' experiments on visual awareness have become famous.  The primary conclusion drawn from his research is that we can miss incredibly obvious things, right in front of us, if our attention is focused elsewhere.

While watching the video, count how many passes the team in white makes. 

This is worth doing so you experience it yourself.

OK, click the video to do it now.

via Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris (Click Here To Read The Full Paper)

First, did you get the number of passes correct? Second, did you see the gorilla?

If you have already seen this video or heard of the study, it's much easier, but most people absolutely miss the Gorilla, despite it not being hidden. 

Think about how often your focus blinds you to the obvious.

This next video demonstrates "change blindness".  In an experiment, 75% of the participants didn't notice that the experimenter was replaced by a different person.

 

via Derren Brown

Warning: Objects In Your Attention Span Are Fewer Than You Perceive.

It's well known that we often miss objects in our field of view due to limited attention and change blindness, but, it's true with more than just sight. Moment by moment, the brain selectively processes information it deems most relevant. Experiments, like these, show the limits of our capacity to encode, retain, and compare visual information from one glance to the next. 

More importantly, this suggests that our awareness of our visual surroundings is far more sparse than most people intuitively believe.  Consequently, our intuition can deceive us far more often than we perceive.

 

via Pickles

As an entrepreneur, when I focus fully on something, it's as if everything else goes away. That level of focus can be a gift - but it can also be a curse. In Genius Network, we have a form we fill out at the beginning of each meeting. In it is a diagram where you rate your score on 8 factors: physical environment, career, money, health, friends & family, significant other, personal & intellectual growth, and fun & recreation

It's rare that I'm fully succeeding in all 8 ... we only have so much focus and bandwidth, it's inevitable I'll miss things. Clearly, in an information-rich environment, attention is a scarce and essential resource. So, pay attention (or automate the things you know need to be done right, every time).

What are you currently prioritizing, and what's falling to the side due to that focus? What are you missing?

Hope this was a helpful reminder. Let me know what you think about posts like this.  Thanks.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - May 10th, 2020

Happy Mother's Day. I hope that the Moms and Grandmoms of the world are being appreciated for all that they do. 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• How Pandemics End. (New York Times)
• How Psychological Safety Actually Works. (Forbes)
• The New Science of Persuasion. (Heleo)
• Our Dark past is Our Bright Future: How the Kremlin Uses and Abuses History. (Carnegie)
• How Elon Musk Pronounces 'X A-12', His New Son's Name. (CNet)

 

Trading Links:

• Former NYSE CEO: Coronavirus Vaccine Would Immediately Shoot Markets to 'Historic High Levels'. (Video)
• As the S&P 500 Surges from March Lows, Investors Fled the Most Popular Stock-Market Fund. Here's What That Might Mean. (Hulbert)
• China Spends $600 Billion to Trump America's Economy. (Forbes)
• Who Will Be the Winners in a Post-Pandemic Economy? (WEForum)
• 'A $35,000 Data Set that Could Have Saved or Made $100 Million': Alt Data is Back in the Spotlight Here's How Providers and Buyers Have Adapted. (Insider)

A Look At Razors (No, Not That Kind)

In philosophy, a razor is a rule of thumb that allows one to eliminate unlikely solutions or actions in relation to a hypothesis. They're called razors because they shave off those unlikely explanations. 

Most people have heard of Occam's Razor ... even if you don't recognize the name, I bet you recognize the idea of abductive reasoning. 

When presented with competing hypothetical answers to a problem, one should select the answer that makes the fewest assumptions.

Essentially, the fewer assumptions a solution requires, the more likely it is to be true. As with any rule of thumb, it's a good starting point but is not definitive. There are plenty of exceptions to the rule.  It is still a good starting point for intellectual conjecture. 

I recently found out there are more philosophical razors, and they're all interesting.  Here are some of the more interesting ones:

• Hanlon's Razor - Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity;
• Hitchens' Razor - What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence; and
• Alder's Razor (also known as Newton's Flaming Laser Sword) - What cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating.

I've had to remind myself about Hanlon's Razor a lot recently.  Also the other kind ...

 

As I told my mother on a Coronavirus Quarantine Mother's Day, "Yes, I know I need a haircut and a shave."  

I'm planning on getting them on May 19th, because our part of Texas is opening up to a new normalcy that week.

I hope you are doing well and staying positive.

Looking forward to seeing people in real life again soon!

Active Management In The Wake of Pandemic

It's apparent that the first 4 months of the year have been anything but normal ... Challenging to say the least.

The increased volatility and noise tested active managers' mettle intensely and often. While even a blind squirrel finds a nut in a forest (for example, during a bull market ...) this type of environment provides an increased opportunity for both under and outperformance as luck and skill collide. 

History will show that the majority of funds struggled in the first quarter of 2020 - driven by the volatility and uncertainty in the midst of a global pandemic.

Investors pulled out ~$33 billion when asset values initially plunged. Yet, the rush to cash was only the beginning, in the first quarter, asset value plunged $366 billion. Redemptions hit large hedge funds the hardest. Meanwhile, funds with less than $1 billion under management only lost $1.6 billion to net redemptions. 

That being said, as is often the case in both volatile and bear markets - people are checking out the state-of-the-art active management strategies. Interest in hedge funds is at a three-year high, as many people fear that what used to work simply isn't good enough anymore.

I suspect that technology-enhanced strategies will gain ground during the next few years as A.I. and exponential technologies get better and gain traction in asset management, risk control, and data management.  Algorithms will improve, hardware will get faster, digital signal processing will become more accurate, and it will be easier to identify and produce data sources that increase the efficiency, effectiveness, or certainty of outcomes.  The likely result will be a reduction in the cost to produce a unit of alpha, which bodes well for forward-looking investors.

As we slowly move toward normalcy, what can we expect to see?

Institutional Investors are optimistic as well.  Here are selected responses from a survey of 125 institutions.

via Institutional Investor

94% of respondents said that their institutions had done a good job managing response to COVID-19, with 44% believing they'd done very well. This contrasts with their belief on how the government handled the crisis, but shows an opportunity for a strong rebound for businesses. 

In past weeks, I've focused on this crisis as an opportunity for reflection and growth. Personally, I continue to brainstorm ways to combine the old way and the new way to create something better. Institutional Investors express similar sentiment here. 

via Institutional Investor 

As of 4/21/2020, 66% of respondents believe the focus should be on the health of the public, that will likely soon shift to stabilizing the economy, and subsequently shift to growing the economy. 

I believe we'll see similar responses from active managers and from entrepreneurs. This is an opportunity to improve operations, adopt better practices, and set higher standards. 

It doesn't make sense to shoot for going back to where we were.  This much pain and effort likely creates the fertile ground for something better.

Onwards!