Thoughts about the markets, automated trading algorithms, artificial intelligence, and lots of other stuff

  • Mountains Out of Molehills: Media, Politics, and the Business of Outrage

    Every election cycle brings a familiar warning: This is the most important election of our lifetime.

    The stakes are enormous! The country is at a crossroads! Democracy is on the ballot! The economy is hanging in the balance! If the other side wins, no one knows what will happen next!

    And then, a couple of years later, we do it all over again.

    Miraculously, the world keeps turning.

    As the 2026 midterm elections approach, it’s worth taking a step back and thinking about how we consume (political) information, how we react to disagreement, and how easily we can lose perspective when everything is presented as a crisis.

    This isn’t an argument that elections don’t matter. They do. Policies have consequences, elected officials make consequential decisions, and political disagreements often reflect genuine differences in values and priorities.

    But there’s a difference between recognizing that something matters and treating everything as an emergency.

    Unfortunately, the modern media environment doesn’t always reward that distinction.

    Outrage is a business model

    The media landscape has changed dramatically. News is no longer something we simply sit down and consume at a particular time of day. It’s an ongoing stream of headlines, notifications, commentary, clips, reactions, and opinions.

    And much of that content competes for the same limited resource: our attention.

    The Mountains Out of Molehills interactive graphic below shows the news cycle for topics ranging from asteroids and vaccines to Ebola and Zika. It’s an interesting reminder about media-informed fears.

    Screen Shot 2020-03-01 at 8.26.59 PM

    (Click To View Interactive Infographic) via InformationIsBeautiful

    A measured explanation rarely travels as far as an inflammatory headline. Nuance takes time. Outrage takes seconds. A complicated policy discussion might generate a few thoughtful responses, while a provocative soundbite can generate thousands of comments, shares, and arguments.

    This creates an interesting incentive structure.

    The more emotionally charged a story becomes, the more likely people are to engage with it. The more people engage, the more visibility it receives. And the more visibility it gets, the more important it can appear.

    The original story can get lost somewhere along the way.

    This isn’t limited to traditional news organizations, social media, podcasts, or even news stories. The attention economy has become a part of our culture.

    The cost of losing perspective

    This kind of environment has real consequences.

    For one, it makes productive conversations harder. It’s difficult to find common ground when we assume the worst about anyone who disagrees with us.

    It also makes it harder to tell meaningful developments from temporary distractions. Not every headline deserves the same level of attention. Not every controversy changes the country’s trajectory.

    Unfortunately, some do, and so you can’t just tune out.

    The challenge is that we’re often asked to make that distinction while we’re emotionally invested in the outcome.

    We have to be very conscious of the information we take in, the urgency and importance of the issues, and whether we truly need to react with haste or whether a cooler head would likely lead to better choices.

    Markets have a similar problem

    This is one of the reasons I find the relationship between media, politics, and financial markets so interesting.

    If you don’t know what your edge is … you don’t have one. And it’s tough to find a “signal” in a sea of noise. 

    Markets are constantly processing new information. Elections, economic policy, international conflicts, interest rates, corporate earnings, and countless other developments can influence investor expectations.

    But markets don’t react to headlines in a vacuum. They react to changing expectations about the future, and there’s often a big difference between how an event is portrayed and how it ultimately affects the underlying economic environment.

    An election can create uncertainty without fundamentally changing the long-term outlook for businesses. A frightening headline can trigger a temporary market reaction without changing an investment’s underlying value. Conversely, a seemingly unremarkable development can have meaningful consequences that take months or years to become apparent.

    I sound like a broken record, but it all boils down to signal vs. noise.

    It’s a fractal lesson that applies to trading, politics, and the media we consume.

    We should care about what’s happening in our country. We should pay attention to the decisions being made on our behalf, challenge our assumptions, and be willing to change our minds when the evidence calls for it.

    But we should also be careful not to let every headline, disagreement, or political development become a mountain.

    Sometimes a molehill really is just a molehill.

    So, as you head to the polls and into the last quarter of the year, take a breath, step back, and focus on the mountains worth climbing.

    Onwards!

  • The Trick To Halloween Treats

    As I edit this post, I’m eating a Reese’s peanut butter cup that survived last night’s onslaught of trick-or-treaters (perhaps because some of them were in a backup container in my office … you know, in case we ran out of other candy…). So, when I saw this Halloween-themed infographic, I thought: “Good, but it probably needs a taste test.”

    Good data visualizations are few and far between. Bad data visualizations spread lies, misrepresent content, or are sometimes just plain unreadable.

    In honor of Halloween, here’s a fun data visualization by Mariona Banyeres, based on FiveThirtyEight’s “The Ultimate Halloween candy power ranking.” It’s a few years out of date, but I think we can let that slide. Compared to simpler charts, it may be harder to read – but it’s interactive, it’s themed, and if you hover over points, it will add extra context. Click to go to Mariona’s interactive Tableau DataViz. 

    Halloween

    Mariona Banyeres via FiveThirtyEight

    To skip the data visualization, here are the results of FiveThirtyEight’s competition. 

    Screen Shot 2019-10-25 at 4.43.38 PM

    via FiveThirtyEight

    I hope you had a happy Halloween, and I hope you were the house that helped others have a happy Halloween, too. Either way, I hope your treats passed the taste test.

  • The Great Rebranding of Gambling: Will the Pendulum Swing Back?

    There was a time when gambling came with a certain social stigma. Casinos occupied their own corner of the cultural imagination, bookies operated behind closed doors, and betting was something many people did quietly, if at all. Gambling was associated with vice, desperation, or the occasional reckless weekend in Las Vegas (or the worst of the daytraders). You rarely heard of people gambling between meetings, while watching TV, or while scrolling through your phone on the couch.

    Somewhere along the way, that changed. Gambling didn’t just become more accessible. It became cool, frictionless, and increasingly indistinguishable from ordinary entertainment.

    A recent Visual Capitalist ranking of online gambling by country offers a glimpse of how thoroughly the habit has spread.

    Based on second-quarter 2025 survey data, 19.6% of internet users aged 16 and older in the United Kingdom visited an online gambling or betting platform in the previous month. In Australia, the figure was 18%. In the United States, it was 10.2%. South Africa and Norway topped the ranking, at 32.3% and 31.2%, respectively. These figures measure participation, not the amount wagered, but they point to a world in which online betting has become a routine part of life for millions.

    The transformation is especially striking in America, where the smartphone has made gambling possible almost anywhere, at almost any time. Since the Supreme Court cleared the way for states to legalize sports betting in 2018, betting companies have worked to make wagering feel less like a trip to a casino and more like an extension of being a sports fan. Odds are embedded in broadcasts. Promotions arrive on phones. Betting slips sit alongside box scores, fantasy lineups, and social feeds.

    And then there are the platforms that complicate the definition of gambling itself.

    Stake has built a global brand around online casino games and sports betting, wrapped in the aesthetics of internet culture, livestreaming, and influencer entertainment. Underdog, by contrast, has built its identity around fantasy sports and related contests, including products whose legal classification depends on their structure and jurisdiction. Other players include FanDuel, DraftKings, ReBet, and more. They are not identical businesses, and their products do not all fall under the same legal rules. But they illustrate a broader shift: wagering can be packaged as gaming, competition, skill, community, or financial opportunity, rather than simply gambling.

    Gambling has been rebranded as gaming … similarly, speculative trading has increasingly been rebranded as financial empowerment. Robinhood built confetti animations and push notifications into options trades — the same dopamine loop that keeps someone pulling a slot machine lever (it later pulled the confetti after regulators pushed back). Both are accessible through apps, wrapped in slick interfaces, and marketed around the possibility of making money.

    While trading can (and should) use technology, research, valuation, risk management, and disciplined strategies, accessibility has made it easier to treat it flippantly.

    The Stories You Tell Become Real

    The language matters. A bet can become a fantasy contest. A wager can become a prediction. Risk can be presented as a game of skill. The terminology may reflect genuine differences in how products work and how laws classify them. Still, it can also soften the cultural associations that once came with putting money on an uncertain outcome. The experience is increasingly gamified; the financial risk remains.

    Gambling’s great rebranding is that it no longer needs to look or seem like gambling.

    The irony is that the normalization of betting may be creating the conditions for a new kind of stigma. When wagering was less accessible, the risks were easier to avoid. Today, the same technology that makes betting convenient can make it continuous. And when gambling becomes woven into the entertainment itself, the boundary between enjoying a game and risking money on it begins to blur.

    Public sentiment about gambling is still mixed. A 2025 Pew Research Center survey found that 43% of U.S. adults considered the legalization of sports betting in much of the country a bad thing for society, up from 34% in 2022. The share who said it was bad for sports also increased, from 33% to 40%. The industry is becoming more visible, but so are concerns about its effects.

    Will the pendulum swing back?

    History suggests that cultural acceptance is rarely permanent, particularly when the consequences of a newly normalized behavior become harder to ignore. A backlash need not mean a return to outright prohibition. It could take the form of tighter advertising restrictions, limits on promotional incentives, greater scrutiny of influencer partnerships, or renewed pressure to separate sports coverage from betting marketing. It could also be a quieter cultural shift, in which people begin to see ubiquitous wagering less as harmless fun and more as an industry competing for their attention and money.

    The counterargument is that gambling has always adapted. Lotteries, casinos, horse racing, and sports betting have survived decades of moral disapproval by changing their presentation and finding new audiences. Today’s platforms have powerful incentives to keep betting socially acceptable, and many customers regard it as a legitimate form of entertainment when practiced within their means.

    Perhaps the pendulum won’t swing all the way back. Perhaps gambling will remain legal and mainstream while becoming less culturally fashionable, much as other industries have learned that widespread participation does not guarantee public approval.

    But the most interesting question is whether a generation raised to think of betting as just another feature of entertainment will eventually reconsider that assumption. When every game offers a wager, every prediction has a price, and every spare moment presents an opportunity to play, what happens when people begin to feel that the house has followed them everywhere?

  • The Psychology of the Average Gambler

    Vegas and Wall Street share a lot in common. Both want you to keep playing.

    Over Time … The House Wins

    Casinos don’t need to win every hand or every spin. They need an edge that holds up over time.

    Customers, on the other hand, often play for the rush of a win, the possibility of a big payout, or the feeling that they’re getting closer to a breakthrough. Random rewards reinforce the behavior. A string of losses can make a win feel even more satisfying, encouraging someone to keep playing long after the odds have turned against them.

    Trading can trigger the same psychological responses.

    A profitable trade feels good. A near miss can feel like evidence that you’re almost there. And a loss can create an urge to make the money back quickly.

    The danger is that these feelings can start driving decisions that should be based on evidence. The “House” knows this and engineers an experience to exploit it.  

    Casinos meticulously craft every detail to extract your money … from carpet patterns to labyrinthine layouts, the music, the lights, and even the games themselves. 

    Here is an infographic that lays it out for you. 

    Casino-psychology-infographicBojoko via DailyInfographic

    Most people aren’t gamblers … the fear of losing big inhibits them. But frame the same bet as a trade instead of a wager, and that fear eases. The label changes the behavior more than the odds do.

    The illusion of control convinces us we can overcome the statistics. 

    When you almost get it right – when you miss the jackpot by one slot on a slot machine, or a trade that would have been a big winner – you’re more likely to play longer and place bigger bets … because you’re “so close”. 

    It’s human nature to want to feel in control. 

    That is why you find so many superstitious traders & gamblers. If you wear this lucky item of clothing … if you throw the dice in this particular way … if you check your holdings at this time every day … you have control. 

    There is a big difference between causation and correlation. 

    This is one of the hardest lessons in trading because the feedback is imperfect. A sound decision can lose money, and a poor decision can make money. One outcome rarely tells you enough to distinguish between skill and luck.

    Likewise, for many traders, most of their focus and activity do little to create a real, lasting edge.  

    Skill vs. Luck

    There are games of skill, and there are games of chance.

    In a casino, poker and blackjack are considered games of skill. In contrast, slot machines are games of chance.

    In trading, predicting markets is very different from using math and statistics to measure a technique’s performance.

    Much of what we do is to eliminate the fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes humans bring to trading.

    In trading, “Alpha” measures excess return attributed to manager skill, rather than luck or taking on more risk.

    At Capitalogix, we believe in Alpha-by-Avoidance … Meaning much of what we do is figuring out what to ignore or avoid so that most of the games we play are skill-based rather than chance-based.

    A casino’s edge is structural and fixed — it doesn’t have to be earned twice. A systematic process’s edge isn’t like that. It has to be tested, re-tested, and earned again every time the market changes. That’s the whole point of insisting on skill instead of assuming it.

    That means being selective.

    It means recognizing that a compelling story isn’t necessarily a useful signal. It means testing whether an apparent pattern holds up beyond the examples that first caught our attention. And it means being willing to abandon an idea when the evidence no longer supports it.

    In a world overflowing with data, filtering out the noise becomes as important as finding the signal.

    Are you playing the right game?

  • What To Do When Optimization Takes The Fun Out of Everything …

    I recently saw a Reddit thread comparing McDonald’s and Hot Wheels in the 1990s with their modern counterparts. The images were meant to show how much color, character, and personality seemed to have disappeared.

    via r/SipsTea

    Millennials tend to think everything was better in the ’90s, and while that’s demonstrably not true, corporate design was less brutalist.

    The comparison felt a little nostalgic, but it got me thinking about a real business problem: What happens when companies focus so much on optimization that they lose sight of what made people love them in the first place?

    Capitalism Rules

    Capitalism is remarkably good at creating things people want. Competition gives entrepreneurs a reason to build better products, take risks, challenge established players, and find entirely new markets. McDonald’s made fast food an experience, not just a meal. Hot Wheels made a little toy car feel like an adventure.

    But success changes the incentives.

    Once a company has established its position, the challenge can shift from making a better product to making the existing product more efficiently. Can we reduce manufacturing costs? Simplify the experience? Remove a feature without hurting sales? Improve margins by another fraction of a percent?

    Individually, these decisions can make perfect sense. Collectively, they can produce something that works just fine but feels like a shell of what it used to be. The magic fades, and trouble sits just off in the horizon, waiting for a disruptor to bring it to light.

    You can see a similar pattern around town. Compared with much of the architecture and construction many of us remember from the 1990s, so much new development can feel repetitive and interchangeable. There are understandable reasons for that, from construction costs and zoning requirements to financing constraints and the economics of building at scale. Still, it’s worth asking what gets lost when efficiency and predictability dominate every decision.

    You can even see it in trading. Over-optimize a strategy against its own backtest, and you can curve-fit your way to a beautiful equity curve that has nothing to do with how markets actually behave going forward.

    Don’t Optimize On The Wrong Metrics …

    The irony is that optimizing away these qualities may be the very things that once differentiated the business. Color. Character. Craftsmanship. Surprise. The little details that make someone choose your product even when a cheaper or more convenient alternative exists.

    When every competitor follows the same playbook, optimization can become a race to the bottom. Everyone gets a little more efficient, but nobody gives customers a compelling reason to care.

    That creates an opportunity, too. When established companies leave customers wanting more, a competitor can win by bringing back what was lost or by creating something entirely new that incumbents have stopped looking for.

    For entrepreneurs, the question isn’t whether to optimize. Of course we should. The question is what we’re optimizing for, and whether our metrics capture the things customers actually value.

    Are we measuring what matters, or just what’s easy to measure? Are we improving the experience, or simply reducing the cost of delivering it? And when we look at our own products five or ten years from now, will we see something more useful, more distinctive, and more valuable, or just more cheaper & more efficient?

    The goal shouldn’t be to preserve everything the way it was. It should be to make progress without losing the spark.

    As you continue to use exponential technologies, it becomes more important to decide how much you prioritize your ‘Why’ over your ‘What’ and ‘How’.

  • Can We Predict The Future?

    New technologies fascinate me … As we approach the Singularity, I guess that is becoming human nature. 

    Ray Kurzweil (a well-respected futurist, inventor, and entrepreneur) optimistically predicts accelerating returns and exponential progress, arguing that 21st-century technological advances will be far more significant and disruptive than those of previous centuries. Kurzweil believes: “The next century won’t feel like 100 years of progress—it will feel like 20,000.”

    However, a tension exists between our ability to imagine grand futures and our struggle to execute the how—the messy, uncertain work of getting there.

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a noted expert on randomness, probability, complexity, and uncertainty) reminds us that, “We often overestimate what we know and underestimate uncertainty.” Likewise, “continuous forward motion” can sometimes lead to dead ends, and speed without thoughtful direction can be dangerous.

    This is true in part because technology adoption often depends more on human nature than on technology’s absolute value. 

    This post is about embracing the paradox: valuing vision while practicing the discipline of small, progressive steps.

    Dreaming vs. Doing

    Recognize that the future is co-authored by dreamers and doers.

    In a 1966 interview, Marshall McLuhan discussed the future of information with ideas that now resonate with AI technologies. He envisioned personalized information, where people request specific knowledge and receive tailored content … like ChatGPT.

    Although McLuhan was against innovation, he recognized the need to understand emerging trends to maintain control and know when to “turn off the button.” 

    Prophecy vs. Navigation

    While we revere “prophetic” moments, most successful outcomes arise from continuous adjustment—not perfect foresight.

    Peter Drucker famously said, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

    I’ll say it a different way … It’s more useful to view innovation as navigation, rather than prophecy.

    Like evolution, Success isn’t about strength or certainty — it’s about the ability to adapt quickly and course-correct as conditions change. This mindset urges leaders to embrace agile, resilient strategies that can respond rapidly to emerging opportunities and threats.

    The forecast is almost always wrong … but an adaptive process survives being wrong.

    With that said, activity is not progress if it doesn’t lead you in the right direction. Sometimes, continuous course correction can lead a team in circles. Pausing for periodic reflection and creating feedback loops helps prevent innovation drift. 

    Not all predictions are created equal; we seem to have a better idea of what we want than how to accomplish it. 

    The farther the horizon, the more guesswork is involved. Compared with the prior video on predictions from the mid-1900s, this 1995 internet video seems downright prophetic. 

    via YouTube

    The Distinction Between Envisioning Outcomes and Creating Practical Paths to Them.

    There’s a lesson there. It’s hard to predict the future, but that doesn’t mean you can’t skate to where the puck is moving. Future success goes to those who can quickly sense shifts, reorient, make appropriate decisions, and take action.

    Even when the path ahead is unclear, it’s relatively easy to pick your next step … and then the next. As long as you are moving in the right direction and keep taking steps without stopping, the result is inevitable. 

    In Uncharted Territory, It’s Better to Use a Compass Than a Map

    The distant future may be fuzzy, but our willingness to keep moving—and keep learning—tips the odds in our favor.

    Reflect on the value of looking ahead, not for certainty but for direction.

    Don’t worry if you can’t see your intended destination. Just focus on your next step and trust the journey.

    Remember, there is always a best next step.

    Onwards!

  • Which Colleges Produce the Most Pro Athletes?

    I love data. Often that means diving deeply into heavy or complex issues … but sometimes it means looking at which schools send the most players to the pros, because a friend forwards it to you.

    via NCAA

    It’s not particularly surprising that a school with the vanity to include “the” in its official branding sends the most players to play in the NFL. Though after Nick Saban’s run with Alabama, it may be surprising that they fell short of THE Ohio State.

    I couldn’t find a great NBA companion infographic, but their website lists the most powerful pipeline schools.

    1. Kentucky (29)
    2. Duke (24)
    3. UCLA (14)
    4. Arizona (12)
    5. Arkansas/Gonzaga/Kansas/USC (11)

    It’s nice to see my alma mater (Duke) still producing so much NBA talent after Coach K; I guess there’s a reason they rank among the Blue Bloods.

    In football and basketball, the familiar powerhouses dominate. Rugby tells a different story.

    My son (who helps write these posts) follows professional rugby and decided to do research into which schools produced the most pros. You probably won’t recognize the names, but here they are: Lindenwood, Life University, and St. Mary’s. They’re smaller schools that put a real emphasis on varsity rugby, focusing their athletic resources on sports where they can compete at a high level rather than trying to match the budgets of larger universities in sports like football and basketball.

    The same is true in business: you don’t have to outspend the giants if you pick the arena where your edge compounds. Talent doesn’t always follow the biggest budgets, and success doesn’t always mean trying to compete in everything. Sometimes, it’s about finding the right niche, investing in it, and building a program that consistently produces great results.

    You don’t need to compete at everything against everyone. Have you found your niche?