Capitalogix

Global Chip Shortage and Automakers

In August, I wrote about the technologies I thought would impact the world most over the next 5-10 years. 

In that article, I also briefly identified the global chip shortage as a supply chain issue impacting millions of businesses, which could also become a significant barrier to businesses adopting A.I. at scale. 

 

via Marketoonist

Let's talk a little bit more about the scale of the shortage. 

Chips (or semiconductors) are used in substantially all the world's electronic devices – and the more complex machines can require not only more chips ... but also more complex chips. For example, a modern car can have anywhere from 500-3000 chips in them. 

When the pandemic hit, consumer demand shifts meant that semiconductor manufacturing had to slow down - and a foreseeable consequence of those actions presents us with the inconvenient truth that scaling back production can take up to a year-and-a-half. With demand increasing, the supply vs. demand ratio is getting more out of whack. 

Luckily for you, semiconductor manufacturers prioritize the more lucrative goods (like smartphones and other consumer electronics), but that means that it will be harder for small businesses to get them - and it's also severely impacting the automotive industry. 

 

via visualcapitalist

You'll notice that the most affected brands have more production in North America. The reason for that discrepancy is that U.S. manufacturers depend heavily on chips from Asia. The Senate has recently approved $52 billion in subsidies for N.A. chip manufacturing, which hopefully will lessen that dependence over time. 

If you were already worried about the skyrocketing prices of houses, you should expect to see a quick rise in the price of vehicles as well. 

Buyer beware!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 17th, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• 16 Experts Predict the Tech Trends that Will Dominate Industry In 2022. (Forbes)
• Harvesting Water From the Air, 24 Hours a Day, With No Energy Input. (TheBrighterSide)
• "Holoportation" Lets You Beam Yourself Anywhere. (Axios)
• You Can Now Live For Ever. (Your AI-powered Twin, that Is). (WEForum)
• One of the World's Most Popular IOS Apps Right Now Was Developed By Chinese Police. (Quartz)

 

Trading Links:

• Inflation In the Economy Today is Different. Here are Four Charts that Can Explain Why. (Washington Post)
• The 10 Richest Hedge Fund Managers In The World Today. (CNW)
• What If Central Banks Issued Digital Currency? (HBR)
• Bitcoin Futures ETF Won't Face SEC Opposition at Deadline, Sources Say. (Bloomberg)
• 4.3M Workers Quit Their Jobs in August, Highest Level Since At Least 2000. It's Being Called "The Great Resignation." (Flipboard)

Get Yourself Optimized with Stephan Spencer

I was recently on a podcast with Stephan Spencer where we talked about the future of AI - of course - but also about personal development, mindsets, and the hidden opportunities created by the byproducts of your strategies and business models. 

It was a nice talk, and I hope you enjoy it and find it helpful.

 

via Get Yourself Optimized

The whole video is worth a watch, but the idea of strategic byproducts is a simple but powerful one. Essentially, while you're working on your core business, or operating your core business, you'll often realize that you have created other capabilities or outcomes of that business that can become a complementary business or platform in-and-of-itself. Instead of just being the exhaust of your business, they can become a valuable resource and the path to something new and potentially bigger and better than the original business. 

That conversation starts around the 18-minute mark and picks back up around the 38-minute mark. 

Stephan Spencer does an excellent job of that, not only in his businesses but with his podcast. What could simply be a video he records with the interviewee becomes audio, a transcript with highlights, a timeline of topics, and a checklist of action items that he (or you) could personally take from the interview. 

He's already shot the podcast - so why not capitalize on the "exhaust" of it as well. 

Creating Your Artificial Intelligence Methodology

We often talk about Artificial Intelligence's applications – meaning, what we use it for – but we often forget to talk about a more crucial question:

How do we use AI effectively?

Many people misuse AI.  They think they can simply plug in a dataset, press a button, and poof!  Magically, an edge appears.

Most commonly, people lack the infrastructure (or the data literacy) to properly handle even the most basic algorithms and operations. And even before that - they haven't even properly assessed whether AI is needed in their business. Remember, AI is a tool, not the goal. 

Even though this is the golden age of AI ... we are just at the beginning.  Awareness leads to focus, which leads to experimentation, which leads to finer distinctions, which leads to wisdom.

Do you remember Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs?  Ultimately, self-actualization is the goal ... but before you can focus on that, you need food, water, shelter, etc.

In other words, you most likely have to crawl before you can walk, and you have to be able to survive before you can thrive. 

Artificial Intelligence and Data Science follow a similar model. Here it is:

Monica Rogati via hackernoon

First, there's data collection. Do you have the right dataset? Is it complete?

Then, data flow. How is the data going to move through your systems? 

Once your data is accessible and manageable you can begin to explore and transform it. 

Exploring and transforming is a crucial stage that's often neglected.

One of the biggest challenges we had to overcome at Capitalogix was handling real-time market data.

The data stream from exchanges isn't perfect.

Consequently, using real-time market data as an input for AI is challenging.  We have to identify, fix, and re-publish bad ticks or missing ticks as quickly as possible.  Think of this like trying to drink muddy stream water (without a filtration process, it isn't always safe).

Once your data is clean, you can then define which metrics you care about, how they all rank in the grand scheme of things ... and then begin to train your data. 

Compared to just plugging in a data set, there are a lot more steps; but, the results are worth it. 

That's the foundation to allow you to start model creation and optimization.

The point is, ultimately, it's more efficient and effective to spend the time on the infrastructure and methodology of your project (rather than to rush the process and get poor results).

If you put garbage into a system, most likely you'll get garbage out. 

Slower sometimes means faster.

Onwards.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 10th, 2021

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• 5 Key Ways Zoom is Shifting From Merely a Product to a Dominant Platform. (MotleyFool)
• You Can Now Communicate With William Shatner Through Interactive AI. (CBR)
• What Makes Us Human? The Answer May Be Found In Overlooked DNA. (EurasiaReview)
• Why China Sends Warplanes Into Taiwan's Airspace But Doesn't Attack Analysis. (EurasiaReview)
• Russia Tells Its Space Reporters to Stop Reporting on the Space Program. (ArsTechnica)

 

 

 

Trading Links:

• Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) Robots Market to Reach $21.4 Billion By 2026. (Finance)
• Xi Jinping Aims to Rein-In Chinese Capitalism, Hew to Mao's Socialist Vision. (Wall Street Journal)
• Central Bankers are Spooked By Signs that Inflation is Lingering for Longer. (Bloomberg)
• SEC Chief to Wall Street: The Everything Crackdown is Coming. (News)
• DeFi Picks Up the Pace as Alternate Blockchains and NFTs Boom. (CoinTelegraph)

 

 

It's Not What Happens, It's What You Do

It's been a while since I've shared this video. I shot it in 2015. But, it's as relevant today (if not more so) as it was then. 

 

A lot of times, the things that look like giant problems or setbacks turn out to be catalysts for something positive (and often better).

You can't control everything; but, you can control what you focus on, the meaning you give things, and how you respond.

It's not what happens, it's what you do! 

A lot of times, the things that look like giant problems or setbacks turn out to be catalysts for something positive (and often better).

You can't control everything; but, you can control what you focus on, the meaning you give things, and how you respond.

How To Amplify Your Capabilities Like Elon Musk

I recently shot a podcast with Mike Koenigs about taking your ideas and transforming them not just into products but into platforms. It was also featured on Forbes. 

Many of the most valuable companies (like Tesla, Apple, and Amazon) leverage platforms to scale past their initial products and create profitable ecosystems. 

The video is 50+ minutes - but covers the topic in great depth, and Mike adds a lot of significant distinctions. I think you will like it.

 

via Capability Amplifier

Since recording this podcast, I've continued to make finer distinctions. 

 

 

One such distinction, to help businesses plan around new technologies, was to ask two key questions. 

1. What technologies that already exist are going to impact your industry the most in the next 3-5 years?
2. What technologies that you expect to exist are going to impact your industry the most in the next 5-10 years?

I ask these questions because adopting new technologies doesn't mean you have to invent something new. It can mean capitalizing on existing technologies and finding new ways to use them. Understanding what is "likely" lets you lean in the right direction and helps you visualize the most likely paths forward. 

This helps you figure out where to spend focus, time, energy, and other resources.  Remember, it is easier to follow and leverage a trend, rather than to fight it.

Since the beginning of time, humans have been confronted with disruptive new technologies.  While technologies continue to change, human nature has remained relatively stable. As a result, predicting human nature is often easier than predicting technology.

So, rather than trying to predict what technologies will win, you can focus on which needs and capabilities are most likely to attract attention and resources. Innovation and technology will follow to satisfy the desire.  

Knowing that, the question is what can you build that leverages your unique abilities and the likely path of your chosen market.

It sounds simple, but it's a powerful distinction and potential differentiator between you and your competitors. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 3rd, 2021

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Archaeologist Claims Mount Sinai Found In Saudi Arabia. (NYPost)
• Ancient Greeks Predicted Robots Claims Stanford Historian. (GreekReporter)
• General Stanley McChrystal on Mastering Risk. (TimFerriss)
• Scientists Created Holograms You Can Touch: You Could Soon Shake a Virtual Colleague's Hand. (SingularityHub)
• How the Abnormal Brains of Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, and Richard Branson Drive Business Success. (Inc)

 

Trading Links:

• Peter Thiel: The 'Contrarian' Venture Capitalist of Silicon Valley. (Flipboard)
• Why the Largest Crypto Trading Firms Are Becoming Venture Capitalists as Well. (TheBlockCrypto)
• Quantum Computing Hits the Stock Market. (Axios)
• Electric Vehicle Maker Rivian Files To Go Public. (CNBC)
• Baby Boomers are Leaving the Workforce to Live Their Best Lives in a Silver Tsunami Great Retirement Trend. (Forbes)

 

Interesting Charts About The S&P 500

The S&P 500 Index had another bad week and ended the month down 4.8%. It was the sharpest monthly decline since March 2020 – and finished a seven-month streak of gains.  Here is a heat map chart showing how widely spread the pullback was last week.

 

via FinViz

It will be interesting to see how the S&P 500 Index fairs in October as the Delta variant continues to linger, the Federal Reserve plans to slow its purchase of government-backed bonds, and fear continues around the U.S.'s cash reserves and debt limit.  Adding further pressure are the continuing shortages of many retail goods and computer chips. 

But, for all the times we've expected a contraction, the market has shown remarkable resiliency in the past year and a half. 

On a more lighthearted note, here are two charts I thought were interesting and worth sharing. 

First, here's a chart from A Wealth Of Common Sense that shows the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 in 5-year increments. 

 

via A Wealth Of Common Sense 

There are a lot of interesting takeaways you can glean from this chart.  But I was surprised to see how much turnover there is. Also, in the 1980s, the top 10 companies were almost all energy companies, while today they're almost all tech companies. 

Here's a bonus chart that shows the top 10 companies at the end of 2020. 

 

via Statista 

If you assume the market cap is approximately $32 Trillion, these ten companies account for around 30% of the market cap. That is a staggering amount. 

For the last chart, here's a spurious correlation between the McRib being in season and the performance of the S&P.

 

via PuzzledHippo3
 

With the McRib coming back on November 1st,  you might want to invest now. Seems like a solid bet. 

Perhaps the correlation exists because McDonald's only offers the McRib when pork prices are low enough?  If so, McD's is reacting to the market (and not the other way around).

There are many ways to make money in fast food (including food sales, real estate, and commodities trading).

The Data on Wealth Distribution in the US

Talking about wealth distribution can lead to contentious discussions.

The fact that one group has "more" of something literally means it is not equal to what someone else has ... but does it imply that it isn't fair or just? The arguments get nuanced fast.

Even how you look at the statistics can be confusing.  You can focus on which group has what percentage of the pie.  Or you could focus on which groups are gaining or losing based on the share they used to have of the pie.  With that said, remember that the pie can grow or shrink, and the percentage of a population in a demographic can change as well. What you choose to focus on, and what you decide it means, impacts your stance on the meritocracy or unfairness of what is happening (and what we should do about what is happening). 

So, while many people point to the increasing wealth of the 1%, it's worth discussing whether this represents inequality or simply the asymmetric distribution of wealth. 

 

via visualcapitalist

Today, the top 1% of the U.S. owns about 31.2% of the total wealth. That's up from 28.6% in 2010. 

However, the total wealth pool has increased from $60 trillion to $112 trillion in that same period. 

In other words, each demographic has seen an increase in wealth over the past ten years. A larger percentage of the pie has gone to the 1%, but each demographic has benefitted and our collective economic pie has grown. 

So, what drives the asymmetric distribution of wealth?

There are multiple factors, but to name just a few: 

• The longest bull market in history benefits the top 1% more because they own a much higher percentage of corporate equities and mutual funds
• The minimum wage hasn't increased since 2009, despite rising costs of living and other goods.
• Technological changes influence both more menial jobs as well as creating more opportunities for tech giants
• Globalization plays a part both due to trade channels and due to the integration of numerous financial markets

Are things better?  Are things good enough?  Do we have to do something? If so, what?

Is this a red herring to distract us from other issues? 

I'm curious to hear what you think about this issue.