Capitalogix

Danger or Opportunity? Close to New Highs

This week, Lance Roberts posted "Only 4% From Record Highs" on RealInvestmentAdvice.com.

In it, he stated:

“While my “emotions” are currently screaming to start increasing equity allocations at this juncture, there are several reasons why my discipline is keeping me from doing so currently:

1. The market is GROSSLY overbought in the short-term and will have either a mild corrective process or consolidation to allow for an increase in equity exposure.
2. Negative trends are still in place which suggests the current rally, while significant, remains within the context of a reflexive rally.
3. Volume is declining on the rally suggesting a lack of conviction.
4. This rally looks very similar to the rally last October except the fundamentals are substantially weaker.”

 

Here is the chart (with his notations) that caught my eye.

 

 

The question it poses is whether enough “technical repair” has been completed to warrant an increase in equity exposure in portfolios? Does the “risk” that the current “bear market” rally is nearer completion outweigh the possibility currently the markets are changing back to a “bull market”?

In other words, does the “risk” that the current “bear market” rally is nearer completion outweigh the possibility currently the markets are changing back to a “bull market”?

As we approach summer, the seasonal weakness of the markets will likely resurface as the reality of Central Bank interventions are digested and focus once again returns to the real driver of asset prices longer term – profits.

 

“There have been three great inventions since the beginning of time: fire, the wheel, and Central Banking.” – Will Rogers

 

Happy Spring!

Here Are Some Weekend Reading Links

It's March Madness - so bracket-themed comics are out in full-force.  Here are two that made me smile.

 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Wharton Professor Adam Grant On Creativity and the First Mover Myth. (TechCrunch)
• 15 Documentaries On Netflix That Will Make You Smarter About Business. (BizInsider)
• Not Even the People Who Write Algorithms Really Know How They Work. (Atlantic)
• Industrial Designers Predict the Future of Transportation in 50 Years. (Guardian)
• Anne Frank's Diary Is Now Free to Download. (The Verge)

 

Trading Links:

• Why Robots Mean Interest Rates Could Go Even Lower in the Future. (Bloomberg)
• You’re Not Supposed to Understand the Federal Reserve. (NYTimes)
• What Robo-Advisors Truly Threaten To Disrupt. (Kitces)
• EY Statistics On FinTech Usage. (Business Insider)
• Here's an Economist's Reasonably Rosy Countdown to the Next Depression. (BizJournals)

Meet the Queen of Sh*tty Robots

I love innovation ... And I know that things often suck before they suck less.

Here is a quick and fun interview about someone who loves building hilariously terrible robots (from a terrifying knife-wielding chopping bot to a life-affirming applause bot).

 

 

 

 

via YouTube.

For more, check out Simone's YouTube Channel.

World Happiness Report 2016 Update Ranks Happiest Countries

The World Happiness Report 2016 Update, which ranks 156 countries by their happiness levels, was released last week.

Denmark, Iceland, Norway and Finland may get little sunlight and daylight for months on end, but people living there continue to be happier than most. These countries once again top a poll of the happiest people on Earth, with only Switzerland (second place) breaking up a Nordic clean sweep of the top-five places. Happiness clearly has less to do with the weather, and more to do with factors like social cohesiveness and a strong safety net.

Here is a chart showing the top-ten.

Here Are Some Links Worth Reading This Weekend

Compromise is good ...

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Trifecta Driving the Next Decade of Tech. (Medium)
• How Economists Would Fix Online Dating. (Wall Street Journal)
• This Is Why Women Live Longer Than Men. (Brightside)
• Dog Cognition: How Do Dogs Perceive The World? (Huff-Post)
• Tony Robbins Shares 5 Words That Change Everything. (Inc)

 

Trading Links:

• The Exchanges Are Eating Your Returns. (Bloomberg)
• What Does This Mean?  IBM Revenue Fell for 15th Straight Quarter. (Fox)
• Why Are Corporations Hoarding Trillions? (New York Times)
• China's $34 Trillion Experiment Is Blowing Up - Kyle Bass. (ValueWalk)
• Artificial Intelligence Market Worth 5.05 Billion USD by 2020. (MarketWatch)

A Quick Note from My Son's Wedding

I was in Washington D.C. this weekend for my son's wedding.

We got a chance to spend some time at the White House.

 

 

We also got a chance to play at the President's bowling alley.

 

 

Oh yeah, and my son got married!

 

An Epic Time-Lapse Map of Europe and the Middle East Over the Past 1,000 Years

The temporary nature of things is once again highlighted as Britain considers leaving the European Union.

Here is a fascinating look at a thousand years of history (via border changes).  Watch as the empires, nations, kingdoms, armies and republics come-and-go in fast forward.

   

 

via YouTube.

For a different look, click here or here.

Whether through geo-politics or military actions ... Change appears to be the only constant.

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

Oh well, the hour we lost this weekend was the one I planned to use to go to the gym.  Maybe next year?.

 

via Someecards.com.

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Tomorrow's Advance Man. Marc Andreessen’s plan to win the future. (NewYorker)
• Want Your Children to Survive the Future? Send Them to Art School. (Medium)
• Uber Teams Up with Airbus for On-Demand Helicopter Service. (TPG)
• The 'Hidden Airport' Travel Hack Could Save You As Much As 80% On Flights. (TI)
• A Spanish man didn’t report to work for six years, and no one noticed until he won an award. (National Post)

 

Trading Links:

• The Exchanges Are Eating Your Returns. (Bloomberg)
• Artificial Intelligence Market Worth 5.05 Billion USD by 2020. (MarketWatch)
• What Does This Mean?  IBM Revenue Fell for 15th Straight Quarter. (Fox)
• Why Are Corporations Hoarding Trillions? (New York Times)
• China's $34 Trillion Experiment Is Blowing Up - Kyle Bass. (ValueWalk)

Caring Digitally ...

My son, Ben, gets married next weekend.

As you might know, he has been working as a Presidential Innovation Fellow with the White House. So, this letter may not be a big surprise (or even signed by human) … Nonetheless, I thought it was kind of cool.

 

 

So is this article about the P.I.F. Program in FastCompany Magazine (see if you can spot my son ... It is like "Where's Waldo").

Regardless of what I think about Obamacare.  I like thinking that Obama cares.

After a Quick Rally, The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at Resistance

Impressive rally ... Now what?

Here is a weekly chart of the DJIA.  Price has rallied to the overhead support/resistance level and its 40-week moving average (which is also its 200-day moving average).

 

via StockCharts.

 

Meanwhile, according to StockCharts, the percent of NYSE stocks trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages is soaring. Currently, 73% are above their 50-day lines (which is close to the level hit during the November peak) ... and 34% are above their 50-day lines. That reflects the short-term improvement gained during the last month in major stock indexes.

What happens here, at the resistance barrier, will help determine if the short-term rally has more staying power.