Capitalogix

Overhyped Technologies (Or Not)

Just because something is overhyped doesn’t mean it’s bad.

Gartner’s Hype Cycle is a great example of this concept.  It highlights the likely cycle of inflated expectations, disillusionment, and, ultimately, utility.

The key takeaway from the Hype Cycle model is that much of what happens is predictable ... and that a significant portion of the extreme swings are based on human nature rather than technical merit.

Haters are going to hate, and sometimes a fad is more than a fad.  For example, here is a front-page article from the New York Times in 1879.  It questions the utility of electric lights as a replacement for gas-powered lighting.  In case you were wondering, that one might have been a bright idea.

 

 

The point is that humans have proven themselves to be pretty bad at exponential thinking.  We’re not bad at recognizing periods of inflection, but we often have trouble recognizing the consequences of the change (and the consequences of those consequences) and predicting who the winners and losers will be as a result of those regime changes. 

 

 

There are countless examples.  Here’s a funny one from Maximum PC Magazine in 2008.  It shows that hype isn’t always a sign of mistaken excess.  This list purported to show things that were getting too much attention in 2008.  Instead of being a list of has-beens and failures, many of these things rightfully deserved the attention and hype they were getting.

 

 

It’s been over 15 years since this came out.  How did the predictions hold up?

Apple has become one of the world’s biggest and most successful companies (with a market cap approaching 3 Trillion dollars).  The iPhone has sold over 2.2 billion phones and accounts for over half of Apple’s total revenue.  Meanwhile, Facebook has become Meta and is also one of the biggest and most successful companies in the world (with a market cap of well over a Trillion dollars).  And the list keeps going: HD video, 64-bit computing, downloading movies from the internet, and multiple GPU video cards. 

Take just that last one. Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of GPU growth, and it is one of the highest-performing stocks of the past few decades (with a market cap of well over 2 trillion dollars). 

It’s hard to believe how poorly this image aged. 

Remember that the trend is your friend while it continues.

Just because something is overhyped - doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be excited about it. 

The key is to stop thinking about the thing that’s being hyped and, instead, to start thinking about how to use things like that to create what you really want.

Onwards!

House Prices Versus Income in America

As we discuss the economy, I also think about my youngest son, who is looking at houses right now. 

In countless ways, today's youth have it easier than we did. Access to opportunities, the internet, capital sources, etc., has gotten more accessible, yet there are a few things that have gone the other way, such as buying a house. 

via visualcapitalist

The chart above does not show interest rates or inflation. For example, in 1984, the 30-year fixed rate was close to 14%, over double what it is now. 

But, to put things in perspective ... I moved to Texas in 1986. Part of my rationale was that I could buy a "nice" home for a little less than my initial starting salary as a lawyer.

Recently, policy decisions have vastly increased house prices. How much? Median house prices are nearly 6x the median household income in America. Meanwhile, the economics of renting are significantly better than buying. According to the WSJ, it's 52% more expensive to buy than rent due to mortgage prices. 

When housing costs are this high, consumer spending and mobility are reduced, making individuals less likely to relocate for job opportunities. 

We live in interesting times. Sometimes, I miss the good old days.

Checking Back In with Dr. Doom

In 2018, while in New York for work, I was invited to a party that ended up being a pretty unique experience. 

The rules were that for the first hour it would be first names only, no discussion of what you do, etc. Part of the fun was figuring out who was there and why they were special. And, there were a lot of pretty impressive people in the room. As I was wondering who was able to bring all these experts and thought leaders into one home for a house party, I found it was Nouriel Roubini - the infamous Harvard economist known as Dr. Doom. 

Nouriel Roubini's predictions have earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "PermaBear" in the media. He predicted the housing bubble crash in 2007-2008, and has extensively studied the collapse of emerging economies. 

So, after a tumultuous few years for the global economy, I thought I'd check back in and see what he was saying. 

It turns out he's less pessimistic than you would guess. He's pretty optimistic about 2024 growth and not particularly worried about a recession—though he is expecting a downturn. 

He also thinks there's a possibility that growth remains above potential, and inflation remains sticky. That would be good news for the economy, but bad news for markets – as the Fed likely wouldn't cut as much or as soon as people are hoping for. 

Now, Nouriel has been wrong before, and I don't trust any singular pundit. My mindset is to listen to voices that don't already believe what I do. I tend to be optimistic as a rule, and I've been optimistic on things like blockchain, whereas Nouriel has been staunchly negative.

But, he's a smart and educated voice who can justify his opinions. And I end up more educated - and often modifying my stance a little bit - based on the context he's able to give. 

By the way, as I was editing this post, I saw that Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio admit they got warnings on the US economy wrong — for now.

Are you listening to voices outside of your preferred channels?

The Most Valuable Brands In 2024

In the past, most profitable companies built or sold tangible products. The Titans of industry were automobile manufacturers, oil producers, land owners, etc.

Over the past 20 years, the Titans have changed dramatically. Now, many of the leaders are in tech, IP, and other intangible assets.

Here are the most valuable companies as of today. 

via visualcapitalist

Now, to be clear, these aren't the most profitable companies. This is about value. 

That being said, it wouldn't be surprising to see Apple top either of those lists. Meanwhile, Tesla has dropped off the Top 10 list due to more EV competition and probably some backlash from Elon Musk's Twitter purchase. 

Also, unsurprisingly, Nvidia is the fastest-growing brand right now. 

With technology becoming more ubiquitous and businesses booming, I think the trend will continue, which makes protecting your businesses' intangibles even more important. 

Patents and trademarks are a great way to build a moat between you and your competitors. Remember, however, that anything you get a patent on becomes public knowledge - so be careful with your trade secrets.

Warren Buffett's Lifetime Legacy

Warren Buffet is 93 - and he just released his 2023 annual letter.  Berkshire Hathaway saw record profits of $97 billion last year.  If you scroll to the bottom of this year's letter, you can see he's got an almost 20% CAGR since 1965 and an overall gain of 4,384,748% since 1964.  That is hard to imagine.  It's even harder to do. 

I think part of it comes from how grounded in reality he is.  He focused on what doesn't change instead of what does and on who his "actual" competition is. 

“Berkshire should do a bit better than the average American corporation and, more important, should also operate with materially less risk of permanent loss of capital. Anything beyond “slightly better,” though, is wishful thinking. This modest aspiration wasn’t the case when Bertie went all-in on Berkshire – but it is now.” - Buffett on Berkshire's prospects for shareholders like his sister, Bertie

Buffet is not looking for lottery tickets; he's stacking little wins.  There's power in that.  He also pointed out that as stock trading has become more accessible - it's made daily buying and selling easier, but also more erratic.  That, unfortunately, benefits the "house" more than these individuals. 

Warren Buffett is a legend for many reasons.  Foremost among them might be that he's one of the few investors who clearly has an edge ... and has for a long time. 

From 1976 to 2017, his Sharpe ratio (excess return relative to risk) was approximately double the overall market.  He even did well in 2021.  Berkshire Hathaway passed a trillion in assets last August (up from $700 billion in 2019) – and is still performing well. 

While many people consider Buffett to be an investor, I also consider him to be an entrepreneur.

At the age of six, he started selling gum door to door.  Obviously, selling gum wasn't the key to his path to riches.  So, how did he make his first million?  Here's a video that explains it.

via Coolnimation

He made his first million at age 30 (in 1960).  For context, a million dollars in 1960 would be worth about $10.4 million today.

Buffet has always been honest about his bread-and-butter "trick" ...  he buys quality companies at a discount and holds on to them.

It is fascinating to recognize how much the world has changed – and yet how much it has stayed the same.

For one last bonus, here's one of my favorite quotes from his 2011 letter. 

“Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America. Commentators today often talk of “great uncertainty.” … No matter how serene today may be, tomorrow is always uncertain.

Don’t let that reality spook you. Throughout my lifetime, politicians and pundits have constantly moaned about terrifying problems facing America. Yet our citizens now live an astonishing six times better than when I was born. The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted, and the American system for unleashing that potential – a system that has worked wonders for over two centuries despite frequent interruptions for recessions and even a Civil War – remains alive and effective.

We are not natively smarter than we were when our country was founded nor do we work harder. But look around you and see a world beyond the dreams of any colonial citizen. Now, as in 1776, 1861, 1932 and 1941, America’s best days lie ahead.”

Further, the Pragmatic Capitalist highlights this lesson:

Nothing stopped so many innovators and entrepreneurs more than the fear of failure.  If you allow yourself to be constantly scared into thinking that the world is doomed you will never take that risk which might result in great reward.  And perhaps worse, if you never fail you will never learn to get up, brush yourself off, move on and succeed in the future.  This does not mean you should wander through this world with great complacency and blind optimism, but if you deny yourself the ability to maximize your full potential, you will always come up short.

Fear, uncertainty, and greed are all hallmarks of every year.  There are undoubtedly ebbs and flows to everything, but we are clearly marching towards greener pastures. 

A great lesson to learn from Buffet is that the game isn't about the next year or even three years ... it's about a lifetime and the generations that come after us. 

Let's continue to make our tomorrows bigger and better than our today. 

Onwards!

From 1976 to 2017, his Sharpe ratio (excess return relative to risk) was approximately double the overall market.  He even did well in 2021.  Berkshire Hathaway passed a trillion in assets last August (up from $700 billion in 2019) – and is still performing well. 

While many people consider Buffett to be an investor, I also consider him to be an entrepreneur.

At the age of six, he started selling gum door to door.  Obviously, selling gum wasn't the key to his path to riches.  So, how did he make his first million?  Here's a video that explains it.

via Coolnimation

He made his first million at age 30 (in 1960).  For context, a million dollars in 1960 would be worth about $10.4 million today.

Buffet has always been honest about his bread-and-butter "trick" ...  he buys quality companies at a discount and holds on to them.

It is fascinating to recognize how much the world has changed – and yet how much it has stayed the same.

For one last bonus, here's one of my favorite quotes from his 2011 letter. 

“Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America. Commentators today often talk of “great uncertainty.” … No matter how serene today may be, tomorrow is always uncertain.

Don’t let that reality spook you. Throughout my lifetime, politicians and pundits have constantly moaned about terrifying problems facing America. Yet our citizens now live an astonishing six times better than when I was born. The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted, and the American system for unleashing that potential – a system that has worked wonders for over two centuries despite frequent interruptions for recessions and even a Civil War – remains alive and effective.

We are not natively smarter than we were when our country was founded nor do we work harder. But look around you and see a world beyond the dreams of any colonial citizen. Now, as in 1776, 1861, 1932 and 1941, America’s best days lie ahead.”

Further, the Pragmatic Capitalist highlights this lesson:

Nothing stopped so many innovators and entrepreneurs more than the fear of failure.  If you allow yourself to be constantly scared into thinking that the world is doomed you will never take that risk which might result in great reward.  And perhaps worse, if you never fail you will never learn to get up, brush yourself off, move on and succeed in the future.  This does not mean you should wander through this world with great complacency and blind optimism, but if you deny yourself the ability to maximize your full potential, you will always come up short.

Fear, uncertainty, and greed are all hallmarks of every year.  There are undoubtedly ebbs and flows to everything, but we are clearly marching towards greener pastures. 

A great lesson to learn from Buffet is that the game isn't about the next year or even three years ... it's about a lifetime and the generations that come after us. 

Let's continue to make our tomorrows bigger and better than our today. 

Onwards!

The Doomsday Clock Is Ticking

There are a number of destabilizing events that make me hope for peace, love, and prosperity.  There are increasingly dangerous active military conflicts, a contentious election in front of us, and a host of other issues related to the promise or peril associated with the clash between exponential technologies and human fear, greed, and discretionary mistakes.

With that said, random worry isn't a good strategy.  I like to measure subjective things as objectively as possible.  With that in mind, this post discusses something called the Doomsday Clock.

The History of the Doomsday Clock

The Doomsday Clock was created by a group of atomic scientists in 1947 (following the successful testing of the first atomic bomb by the United States) to warn the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons.  The clock is a metaphor, with midnight representing the catastrophic destruction of the world.  The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer humanity is to a global catastrophe.

In 1953, after both the US and Soviet Union tested hydrogen bombs, the clock was set at two minutes to midnight, which is the closest it has ever been to a global catastrophe.  In recent years, the clock has taken into account not only nuclear weapons but also climate change and other emerging threats.

The Significance of the Doomsday Clock in Modern Times

Today, the Doomsday Clock remains an important symbol of humanity's vulnerability and the need for urgent action to prevent a global disaster.  The clock serves as a reminder that we must work together as a global community to address existential threats facing our planet.

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board determines where to set the clock each year based on international events and scientific advancements.  As such, it provides an objective measure of how close we are to destruction.

Nuclear war is still a significant risk, but not the only one.  A list of the most significant existential threats to humanity includes:

1. Nuclear War: The threat of atomic weapons and the possibility of a global nuclear war continue to pose a significant risk to humanity.

2. Climate Change: Climate change is a growing threat to humanity and the planet, causing rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of biodiversity.

3. Pandemics: The rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, highlights the vulnerability of the human species to pandemics.

4. Artificial Intelligence: The development of advanced AI systems has the potential to pose existential risks if not adequately regulated and controlled.

5. Biotechnology: The rapid advancement in biotechnology, including genetic engineering and synthetic biology, has the potential to bring about new risks to humanity.

6. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions can cause widespread destruction and loss of life.

Some would argue that our exploration of space is another potential threat.  So, these are just a few examples, and the list is not exhaustive.  Addressing these risks requires a global effort and cooperation between nations, organizations, and individuals.

The Doomsday Clock was initially set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947.  In the 76 years since it launched, the hands have been adjusted 25 times.  The most recent change, in 2023, moved the clock from 100 seconds to midnight to 90 seconds.  This was a small but significant shift.  But, this year, 2024, there was no shift. 

Flowing Data put together a chart to show the clock's movement since inception. 

via flowingdata

The Doomsday Clock provides a long-term perspective on the dangers facing humanity.  Despite the seemingly small number of seconds remaining to midnight, it serves as a reminder of the urgency to act. 

And necessity is often the mother of invention.

We can move towards a brighter future by acknowledging the potential consequences of our actions (or inactions).  Advancements in fields such as medicine, technology, and human potential offer hope and the potential to overcome even the most pressing challenges. 

With collaboration among the brightest minds across the globe and private industry, we can solve even the world's most significant problems.

If I have to choose, I always bet on humanity. 

Onwards!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - February 18th, 2024

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• OpenAI's Product Page for Sora – Their AI Model That Creates Video From Text (with Examples). (OpenAI)
• You Are Not Late to Artificial Intelligence. (TheAlgorithmicBridge)
• ‘Mental Time Travel' Can Help You Make Better Decisions. (LifeHacker)
• ‘The Alternative' is Just the Book Economists Should Read — And Won't. (Washington Post)
• Musk Says Putin Can't Lose in Ukraine, Opposes Further Funding – “Prolonging the War Does Not Help Ukraine.” (Bloomberg)

 

Trading Links:

• OpenAI Staff Granted Permission to Liquidate Shares at Astounding $86 Billion Valuation - Insider Report. (Cryptopolitan)
• What Sam Altman's Chimerical Trillions Say About AI Hype. (Axios)
• The US-China Chip War is Escalating. (Apricitas)
• In Memory of Byron Wien, Here Is a 2024 "Ten Surprises" Tribute. (BlueFoxAdvisors)
• How Big Is the Commercial Real Estate Mess in the U.S.? Expect Losses in the Trillions of Dollars Over Time. (TheInstitutionalRiskAnalyst)

 

An Early Look At The Upcoming Election

You know it's election season when Jon Stewart steps back in to host The Daily Show. 

Unsurprisingly, the antagonism and hatred from both sides of the fence are still in full force - now with extra boosts from fake news and AI's influence. 

Surprisingly (to me), the frontrunners are still Biden and Trump, despite them being 81 and 77, respectively ... or despite Trump's several cases against him and Biden's horrible approval ratings ... or ... (it seems like we could keep finding reasons to be surprised).

Truthfully, I am surprised neither party is running someone "better" in this election. 

It feels like almost everyone I talk with is voting for the "lesser of two evils," even though they know it may not serve the greater good.

Here is a chart showing third-year approval ratings of first-term Presidents since WWII.

 

I thought the last Presidential election was pretty interesting, but this one's shaping up to be even more so. If it were fiction, no one would believe it.

The most popular issue on people's minds is the economy, but we also have controversial issues around trust in the government, immigration, abortion, foreign policy, and even the fate of Democracy in America itself. 

For all the economic woes and complaints, the unemployment rate remains low, GDP growth is strong, and the S&P 500 recently hit record highs. Yet, Americans are still feeling it in their pockets as the price of goods has gone up. 

It is a good reminder that the "facts" are often less important than how it feels. 

It is still early, but what do you think will happen?

How To Make Real-Time Decisions

I recently came across an interesting technique that fighter pilots use to make fast and accurate decisions in high-stakes situations. 

The Air Force calls it an OODA Loop.

It is an iterative feedback model that Colonel John Boyd designed as a foundation for rational thinking in chaotic situations like dogfights.

It stands for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. 

via Wikipedia

Why do people use decision models?  Obviously, to make better decisions.  But really, they use models to create a process that avoids many of the mistakes or constraints that prevent good decisions.

You make countless decisions every day - and at a certain point, you reach decision fatigue.  It can be harder to make decisions when you are tired, after you've made too many, or when the intensity of the environment distracts or drains you. 

It's one of the reasons I rely on artificial intelligence.  Here are some others. 

• Best practice becomes standard practice. 
• It accounts for signal and noise.
• It attempts to quantify or otherwise make objective assessments, comparisons, and choices. 
• And, it often gives you a better perspective by letting you apply and compare different models or decision techniques to achieve the desired outcome.

Nonetheless, many algorithms are dynamic and adaptive automation of processes or strategies that humans have used successfully before.

So, let's take a closer look at the OODA Loop, which stemmed from analyzing many interactions between and among fighter pilots during battle and training. 

Observe

The first step is to observe the situation to build the most accurate and comprehensive picture possible.  The goal is to take in the whole of the circumstances and environment.  It's not enough to observe and collect information ... you must process the data and create useful meaning. 

It's the same with data collection for an AI system.  Ingesting or collecting data isn't enough.  You have to be able to apply the data for it to become useful. 

Orient

The second step is less intuitive but very important.  When you orient yourself, it becomes easier to recognize strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to identify how changing the dimensionality or perspective alters the outcome. 

This step reconnects you with reality in the context of your cognitive biases, recent decisions, and more.  For example, have you received new information since starting?

I think of this as carrying a map and pulling out a compass while exploring new lands.  Sometimes, you need to remember where you started, and sometimes, you need to make sure you're going where you think you are. 

Decide

The last two steps provide the foundation for taking action. 

When there are multiple decisions in front of you, observing and orienting help you choose wisely. 

In business and with AI, you can go through these loops multiple times. 

Act 

Finally, remember that the best-made plans mean nothing if you don't act on them. 

Once you've taken action, you can reobserve, reorient, and keep moving forward. 

Conclusion

Like most good mental models, The OODA loop works in many situations and industries.

Speed is often a crucial competitive advantage.  For example, knowing (and taking decisive action) while others are still guessing (and taking tentative action) is something I call time arbitrage. 

Said another way, you make progress faster by walking in the right direction than by running in the wrong direction. 

These processes (and technology) also help us grow more comfortable with uncertainty and uncomfortableness.  Markets are only getting more volatile.  Uncertainty is increasing.  But, when you have the ability to adapt and respond, you can survive and thrive in any climate. 

Ranking The Most Popular AI Tools

Last week, I shared some of the tools I've been using recently to help run my business and life. 

As we all know, several AI tools are taking the world by storm - notably ChatGPT, but others as well. 

It only took ChatGPT 5 days to reach a million users. But the whole AI tools market is growing at a surprising rate.

VisualCapitalist put together a nice infographic on the most popular AI tools of 2023. 

via VisualCapitalist.

I am familiar with some of the apps mentioned (such as Quillbot, Character.ai, or Hugging Face), but I don't use them. On the other hand, I had no prior knowledge of others (such as NovelAI, Janitor AI, and Civitai).  

It's remarkable how much of the market ChatGPT currently controls on its own. In 2023, it is estimated that ChatGPT attracted 14.6 billion visitors, or more than 60% of all AI tool visits.

With that said, it's a marathon, not a sprint. The "feel" of this AI market reminds me of the dot-com bubble times of the late 90s and early 2000s. Many products took the world by storm only to be overthrown by a more robust competitor. For example, consider how few early web browsers or search engines still exist. I suspect that will be true of many early leaders here, too.

It isn't sexy, but it is a safe bet that Google's Bard and Microsoft's Copilot will continue to grow because of investment, acquisition, and distribution.

Remember, new technologies lead to new products and new platforms ... and the current crop of these AI tools are still only at the beginning of their cycles. I anticipate that many innovative frontstage products like ChatGPT will gain greater importance and profitability (albeit with less prominence) as they move backstage to become the backbone or plumbing infrastructure of various other products and services.

The development of new technologies brings about the emergence of new products and platforms. 

AI capabilities and adoption are growing exponentially. It will be interesting to see what else stays on the list three years from now. 

Posts like these are helpful reminders to consider technology adoption and hype cycles.

It's only the beginning ... Onwards!