Capitalogix

Law of Diminishing Returns

At some point, more of the same stops paying off ...

 

via Sketchplanations

Nature (and common sense) reminds us that equilibrium is important. For example, when you exercise too much you get injured, when you drink too much water you get poisoned, etc. 

This concept applies almost everywhere.

• It's why diversification is so important in portfolio construction theory. 
• Or, why you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket (concentrating your risk).
• And, my favorite, it's also why you shouldn't only eat vegetables.

 

A related nugget of wisdom from the extreme ... too much of a good thing is a bad thing. 

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 12th, 2020

As the Australian wildfires rage on - an inestimable number of animals have died.

If you wish to donate to help relief efforts, you can do so with any of these trusted sources. 

• The Australian Red Cross
• GIVIT - Donating Essential items to Victims
• St. Vincent De Paul Society
• The Nature Conservancy Australia

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• 20-year-old McDonald's Burger Still Looks Brand New, Smells like Cardboard. (FoxNews)
• Japanese Woman Turns 117 Years Old, Extends Record as World's Oldest Person. (Reuters)
• China Quietly Confirms a Third CRISPR-Edited Baby Has Been Born. (ScienceAlert)
• Pope Francis Apologizes for Losing His Patience after Slapping Woman's Hand. (FoxNews)
• Fresh Cambridge Analytica Leak Shows Global Manipulation is Out of Control'. (TheGuardian)

 

Trading Links:

• Jeff Bezos is Still the Richest Person in the World. (CNN)
• 4 High-Potential Sectors for AI and ML Startup Success. (Readwrite)
• Tesla Delivered 367,500 Cars Last Year. (CNN)
• The Market Surged Last Year. Don't Expect the Same in 2020. (New York Times)
• It Was a Dismal Year for Hedge Funds: Here Are 2019'S Fund Closures and Family-Office Conversions. (ZeroHedge)

 

Is WiFi Becoming Part of Our Hierarchy of Needs?

My wife's mother and sister were staying with us last week.  We also had two other house guests.  And our Internet service went out.  Not just momentarily, but for days.  Catastrophe!

Is Internet access becoming one of our basic human needs?

In 1943, psychologist Abraham Maslow published his famous “Hierarchy of Needs”. The idea was simple: the essential survival needs in the lowest level of the pyramid must be satisfied before the individual can turn his or her attention to the next level, and so on. Maslow’s “essential needs” are physiological; food, water, shelter, and physical safety.

Today, as we approach the 2020s, perhaps we need to add one more layer to Maslow’s pyramid: WiFi.

 

 

OK, humans probably don’t really need WiFi more than food, but without it, we feel frustrated and "twitchy". 

My solution: dual providers and a fail-over router.  

On a higher level, is Internet access a "basic human right" that should be handled like the New Deal treated electricity at the beginning of the 20th Century?

Expect to hear more about this (and not just because Bernie Sanders made it a campaign issue).

What Do You Do When AI Beats You?

When Beethoven was at the peak of his career, several of his contemporaries struggled to deal with the realization that they may never create anything that lived up to his creations. Brahms, for example, refused to make a symphony for 21 years. Schubert is quoted as saying, "Who can ever do anything after Beethoven?"

We're apparently seeing the same effect via Artificial Intelligence. 

When it comes to popular AI, not much surpasses the popularity of AI's growing chokehold on gaming. Recently, I've shared about AI winning at video games,  but in 2016 I shared about humans losing to AI in Go for the first time. 

What it is:  A computer has just beaten the world's best Go player. AlphaGo, a program created by Google-owned AI company DeepMind, beat European Go champ Fan Hui all five times they played in tournament conditions, and also won 99.8% of Go games against other computer programs. Unlike IBM's Deep Blue, which defeated chess champ Garry Kasparov, AlphaGo wasn't programmed to play Go. Instead, as Nature reports, it learned how to play via a general-purpose algorithm that interpreted the game's patterns.

Why it's important:  AlphaGo's learning technique means it can recognize complex patterns, long-term planning and decision-making: refined skills that were once stricly human in nature. Imagine the possibilities when neural networks like AlphaGo, infinite computing and the 'Internet of Everything' converge.

via - Google AI Algorithm Masters Ancient Game Of Go - February 2016

This week, a former Go champion who was beaten by DeepMind retired after "declaring AI invincible." 

Lee Se-dol quit for a couple of reasons. According to him, even if he's the #1 human, there's an undefeatable entity above him and he felt he had failed his country by losing to the AI. It's an unfair fight - AI plays untold millions of games to learn to play better and it doesn't get tired, bored, sick, distracted.  - we can't do that.

Much like Beethoven, AI is discouraging competition. 

Was Lee wrong to quit? It's hard to say, but as AI gets better at more activities, it's an issue we're going to see more often. There's always someone (or something) better - and a purely utilitarian approach isn't necessary or productive. 

I'm an advocate of intelligently adopting AI, and a believer that the scale of AI's "wins" is going to skyrocket - but I'm also a believer in the idea that "the game isn't over until I win". If I enjoy something, I'm not going to let 2^nd place stop me. 

 

 

The passionate pursuit of a goal is valuable regardless of the result, and bettering yourself at a skill - like Go - may not be a sustainable job, but it can still make a great hobby. 

AI is coming - but it doesn't have to be joy-sucking. 

Onwards! 

 

Thoughts on Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving!

My children came to town, and we continued our tradition of going to the game as a family, and then having a family dinner afterward. This year, my wife's family joined us as well. The more the merrier! 

 

Thanksgiving is a reminder to be grateful for the blessings in your life - big and small. But it's also a time to be thankful for the challenges in your life - the opportunities for growth.

Many times, when I think about what I want, the first thing I think of is what I don't want. Similarly, when I think about what's going well (or something worthy of being thankful for), I first think about what has been difficult or isn't yet to the standard I hoped for.

Challenges are often hidden gold mines. Instead of thinking about them being obstacles for you, recognize that getting past them creates an obstacle for competitors. In other words, figuring out a strategy to achieve these lofty goals creates a new status quo and a sustainable competitive advantage.

At Capitalogix, we often talk about "finding a way," "creating breakthroughs," and "setting new standards."  The reason is that most things an innovator wants are just outside their current capabilities (otherwise they'd already have them).  

Dealing with this on a daily basis requires a resilient mindset and the ability to be comfortable being uncomfortable. 

Having no problems either means you're blind to your flaws, or you aren't playing a big enough game (which is a problem in itself). 

I am thankful to face a continually better class of challenges that forge a path to a bigger future.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - November 17th, 2019

The holiday season is coming fast.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• What's New in Gartner's Hype Cycle for AI, 2019. (Forbes)
• What Monkeys Can Teach Us About Being Human. (NPR)
• Why It's Time to Take Electrified Medicine Seriously. (Time)
• What's CRISPR Doing in Our Food? (Gastropod)
• The Problem that Google Solved with Quantum Supremacy.(DataScienceCentral)

 

Trading Links:

• Why Hedge Fund Billionaire Ray Dalio Loves Silicon Valley.(Finance)
• Tokenized Venture Capital. (DailyFintech)
• Betting on Bitcoin Prices May Soon Be Deemed Illegal Gambling. (Economist)
• Map: The Richest Person in Each U.S. State. (Money)
• Here's What Quantum Supremacy Does and Doesn't Mean for Computing. (TechReview)

Investing In Your Future

I think about investments a lot ... which makes sense given my profession. 

Yet, there are three key investments I think are more important than any monetary investment you can make. 

The first is in yourself - in your physical and mental health. I recently spent a whole month introducing my approach. 

Physical and mental health was a major topic at last weekend's Genius Network Annual Event in Arizona.  I enjoyed listening to speakers like Peter Diamandis, Andrew Weil, Christopher Voss, and Dave Asprey - which brings me to key investment #2.

Find Your Genius Network

"You are the averrage of the five people you spend the most time with." - Jim Rohn

I have always believed that you can predict a lot about your future, based on the quality of the people you spend the present with. That is why I think participation in quality peer groups is critical. Peer groups help us set higher standards for our behavior, help us aim higher in our aspirations, and they help us stay better focused and committed to big-picture goals.

I belong to several executive and business leader peer groups like Genius Network,  EO or Strategic Coach—groups that double as advisory boards, counselor’s offices, and idea factories. They allow me to see, hear, and discuss things I don't normally think about, talk about, or even notice.  Peer groups bring blind spots to my attention and keep me fully connected to trends that are transforming industry on a global scale.

I've gained partners, life-long friends, and ideas that will last a lifetime. I've also started taking my son, Zach, to these events so he can get a headstart. 

Dan Sullivan, founder of Strategic Coach, met my son and proclaimed "The book reader!" 

Good memory. 

Which brings me to my third key investment - and the one I'm most proud of. 

Spread The Wealth

It is not enough to have a good mind; the main thing is to use it well. -Rene Descartes

Like many parents, I wanted to teach my children that, to a large extent, they control what happens to them. One of the first ways I did that was to set up a "game" for them to earn video games. Some parents try to limit the amount of time their kids spend watching TV or playing video games.  Instead, my kids earned their games by reading books. Here is a photo from way back then.

Paid With Play.

Here's how it worked. Every 10 books earned them a video game, and every 100 books earned them a video game console. When they finished a book, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the bookstore for us to pick up the next book together. Likewise, when they finished the requisite number of books, it was their right, and my obligation, to take them to the computer store (does anyone remember CompUSA?) for them to choose whatever game (or console) their heart desired.

How Can You Encourage a Jump to the Next Level?

“Don’t just read the easy stuff. You may be entertained by it, but you will never grow from it.” – Jim Rohn

There came a point when I wanted one of my sons to start reading grown-up books. He was comfortable reading a certain type of book, and didn't want to read the kind of books that I read. So, I created a bonus system that counted a particular book as three books. I didn't force him; I just let the easier path to a reward "whisper" in his ear what to read. Once he finished that, he never went back to teen fiction.

It's a great way to learn about your kids.

I used the bookstore to get a sense of how the boys were doing. For example, I might say "I notice that you read five books in that series, maybe you'd like this book". Or, "That sure is a lot of science fiction; what was the last biography you read?" For the most part, though, I didn't care what they read. The key was to get them to want to choose certain books for their own reasons. Ultimately, their preference meant they were learning to love reading - and once you love reading, you'll eventually branch out on your own.

It Puts Them In Control of Their Destiny and Rewards.

My younger son likes competition. He also broke or misplaced many things. So, in order to earn back the Game Boy unit that he lost, I challenged him to read five books in five days. These weren't easy books either. It was designed to stretch him, and also to teach him that he could read a book a night. The bet was that he either finished all the books in the allocated time, or none of them counted towards games or Game Boys. On the other hand, if he read a book a night for two weeks, not only would he get to have his Game Boy back, the books would count towards a game too. It worked like a charm, and we were both happy.

So, Who Got the Better Bargain?

To end the game, as they entered their teenage years, I upped the ante a little. 500 books meant they got a laptop of their choice and had beaten the system. Both boys cashed in ... and probably felt like they were taking advantage of their dad. I got what I wanted, though; my boys love reading, and I was able to teach them two key ideals.

1. The secret to growth is to constantly challenge yourself
2. You can accomplish anything you put your mind to … one step at a time.

That is an investment that pays dividends for a long time.

A Roller Coaster of Emotions

I recently saw this video during a presentation.

It's hilarious – and a great reminder that it doesn't matter how simple something is (if the stakes are high enough) and the environment is distracting enough. 

That's where automation comes in. Enjoy. 

 

Eliminating fear and greed are great steps to take in the pursuit of eliminating discretionary mistakes.

Think about how many other places this video explains the "why" behind disappointing results.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 27th, 2019

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Jeff Bezos: This is the 'Smartest Thing We Ever Did' At Amazon. (CNBC)
• The Next Big Thing in AI/ML Is. (DataScienceCentral)
• The Pope's First Wearable is a $110 Rosary that Tracks Your Prayers. (FastCompany)
• Science Says You Only Need to Work out for 13 Minutes to Make a Difference. (Parents)
• The 'Blob': Paris Zoo Unveils Unusual Organism Which Can Heal Itself and Has 720 Sexes. (CNN)

 

Trading Links:

• Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff: Capitalism as We Know It as Dead. (TheVerge)
• Google Claims a Quantum Breakthrough that Could Change Computing. (New York Times)
• Tesla Turns a Profit and Builds a Chinese Factory Very Fast. (Wired)
• There Are Now 11 Blockchain Unicorns in the World, with over $1B Valuation, Including Binance, Ripple, and Coinbase. (TheBlockCrypto)
• SoftBank Says It Has Now Invested $18.5 Billion in WeWork, More Than the GDP' of Bolivia, Which Has 11.5 Million People. (TechCrunch)

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - October 20th, 2019

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Six Lessons We Can Learn from Geniuses. (BBC)
• Breaking down the 10 Need-to-know Emerging Technologies. (ZDNet)
• Understanding Heart Zone Training: All You Need to Know. (BTW)
• How Spotify's Algorithm Knows Exactly What You Want to Listen To. (OneZero)
• A.I. Musicians are a Growing Trend. What Does that Mean for the Music Industry? (DigitalTrends)

 

Trading Links:

• Jeff Bezos's Master Plan. (The Atlantic)
• "Demystifying Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Corporation". (Forbes)
• Three Big Things: the Most Important Forces Shaping the World.(CollaborativeFund)
• Goldman Sachs: the Economic Run is Not over and the US 'Is Not Close to Recession'. (CNBC)
• Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller Forewarned Investors about the Dot-com and Housing Bubbles. Now He Tells Us Which Irrational Market Behaviors Have Him Most Worried. (BusinessInsider)