Capitalogix

Sparks of Innovation

Here is a video reminder that a small insight can make possible radically different results.

Was this just a proof of concept ... or will it be the catalyst to more.  To some it might be little more than science fiction ... to others it may have been the open door to something completely new and different.

Thoughts Do Become Things. 

Here is an example where a simple text-book idea really transformed lives.  And it is a good story.

William Kamkwamba, from Malawi, is a born inventor. When he was 14, he built an electricity-producing windmill from spare parts and scrap, working from rough plans he found in a library book called "Using Energy" and modifying them to fit his needs. The windmill he built powers four lights and two radios in his family home. Now it is changing his homeland.

Here is a link to more about William Kamkwamba and his TedTalk Videos.

Here is a link to the book: The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind: Creating Currents of Electricity and Hope.

The Game Is Changing

Mergers and Acquisitions are likely to increase before the next big bull run.  This chart shows that we aren't there yet.

 

We're at the point in the economic recovery cycle where a lot of companies have folded, or will soon fold. On the other hand, the survivors are starting to see the clearing ... or at least the light at the end of the tunnel. Consequently, I expect to see more merger and acquisition activity at the next pull-back.

This will help the strong get stronger ... But it will also serve as a catalyst to new growth and new leaders.

M&A Isn't the Only Way.

This is a great environment to incubate what comes next. During downturns, some people lose their money, business, or hope. During that same period, other people recognize and seize the opportunity to create something great.

There so much talent on the street right now looking for work ... yet there is even more looking for something that inspires them.

At the same time, technology continues to get better. And that just means it continues to get cheaper and easier to implement great ideas and scalable businesses.

Consequently, I think a lot of talent is going to switch from the confines of corporate America to more entrepreneurial ventures. Bright minds will shed cost-cutting cultures and management-by-committee for virtual teams of talented individuals looking to innovate and operate more nimbly.

Something Old is New Again.

Sometimes new things come from familiar faces.  There are many successful entrepreneurs who have been to the brink, and back. What's interesting is that they tend to succeed faster, later in their careers. It makes sense if you think about it; losing money or facing a setback doesn't take away the other skills that they had ... so their next venture is easier for them simply because they are more experienced and better seasoned.

Nonetheless, I'm confident that we will soon see a new wave of the business leaders emerge. I'm curious who you think the likely winners will be?

Capitalogix Commentary 10/11/09

This was a good week for bullish traders.  Sure volume was light for the rally.  But selling was even lighter.  In a trending market, thinking too much can be detrimental to your wallet.  And from March until now, the trend points up.

What Does the Bigger Picture Show?

A weekly chart of the SPY, which is the ETF for the S&P 500, shows price coming into a cluster of resistance.  There are three things that jump out at me.  First, we are at the 50% Retracement of the October 2007 to March 2009 downswing.  Second, price is also are trying to break through the long-term downtrend line from that bear swing.  And third, there is a significant Gap (which often acts as resistance) at that same level from last October.

The good news is a move above this level would be quite bullish.

Can We Move Higher?

The market does not directly reflect the economy.  So price can go higher, even without a real economic recovery.  For traders, the question is how long the rally will be sustainable?  The answer is simple; it is sustainable until price breaks the trendline. 

It is a little tricky, here, because we have the battle of two trendlines. 

What About the Economy?

As for the economy, consumer spending has been weak, so expect that corporate revenues will continue to drag. And companies straining to realize their inflated expectations for 2010-11 earnings will continue to focus on cutting costs, which translates into cutting jobs.  Unfortunately this likely results in even less consumer spending ...

Where Are Consumers Spending?

This chart from the New York Times tells an important story.  It shows where consumers are spending ... and where they aren't.  Last year, consumers pulled back on spending and the retail sector suffered. But not all retailers are faring worse than they did a few years ago. 

Against a baseline of spending levels in 2003, sales in computer stores have continued to rise. Restaurant and liquor-store sales are at much higher levels, and purchases at warehouse stores are up nearly 50 percent.

Still, in major retail divisions like home furnishings and clothing, sales faltered in 2007 and are now below their levels of 2003.

Does a Weak Dollar Matter?

This chart series from Bespoke highlights one reason that a weak dollar matters.  While gold is at record highs in dollar terms, the commodity is still down 10% from its highs when priced in Euros or Yen.  This indicates that the strength is a function of a weaker dollar rather than a real increase from demand.

The same logic applies to the recent market rally.  If the dollar gets stronger, expect the market to move down.  Consequently, many traders are watching the dollar as it tries to bottom.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• What's Luck Got to Do With It? The Math of Gambling. (NewScientist)
• Women, Testosterone & Finance - Risky Business? (Economist)
• Private Equity's Return Dilemma - Hope Dwindling for a New Buyout Boom.(WSJ)
• Please Do Feed the Bears - The Financial World Needs Its Pessimists. (Economist)
• Return of Day Traders Drives Volume; But Who Is Sitting-Out? (WSJ)
• Uncommonly Clever Economic Indicators. (Forbes)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Microsoft Offers Free Security Essentials Anti-malware Package. (InformationWeek)
• More Cases of Autism in U.S. Kids Than Previously Realized. (CNN)
• A Credible Kindle Killer? Competitors Team-up to Take on Amazon. (Forbes)
• Tracing the Origins of Human Empathy. (WSJ)
• Allocate Hours for Maximum Productivity in Your Perfect Day. (ETR)
• Samurai Mind Training for Modern American Warriors. (Time)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Brazil's Campaign Video

If you're still trying to figure out why Chicago lost the Olympic bid, this RIO 2016 commercial might explain it. 

Nicely done; short and compelling.  It certainly makes me want to visit.

Capitalogix Commentary 10/04/09

The Trend Is Up; So Discipline Says Buy the Dip.

Most of the U.S. Equity Indices (Dow, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the MidCap Index) have pulled-back to their 50-Day moving averages and short-term support.  So have many sectors, including: Financials, Metals, Energy, Drugs, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary.  This would be a likely place for bulls, looking for a continued rally, to put some extra cash to work in the markets by buying the dip.

 

Tech is still leading the rally.  So I'm watching that area closely for continued strength.  A lack of buying here is a warning sign.

The Market Is Getting Jiggy.

One thing tempering my confidence in the "buy the dip" strategy is that I noticed a lot more "mischief-bars" recently.  These head-fake moves show-up on charts as jaggy spikes, and often shake-out weak holders ... only to reverse sharply.  Here is a chart of the S&P 500 from Tim Knight's Slope of Hope site.  The yellow sections highlight areas where it is easy to see the spikes in volatility. 

 

This type of behavior often happens near major trend changes, and reflects the disagreement between bulls and bears.

Does the Recent Weekly Buying Climax Signal Exhaustion?

For those looking for further evidence of a turning point, Investors Intelligence recently released a chart showing major buy and sell climaxes in the S&P 500.  As you can see, they often come at major turning points for the markets.  The Blue Bars show Weekly Buying Climaxes, which occur when a stock makes a 52-week high and then closes lower for the week. This represents distribution from strong hands to weak ones and most often occur around market highs.  And the Red Bars mark Weekly Selling Climaxes, which occur when a stock makes a 52-week low and then closes higher for the week. This represents distribution from weak hands to strong ones and most often occur around market lows. 

 

This chart shows that there were 380 total Weekly Buying Climaxes as of the end of last week (see the blue bar at the bottom right of the chart). This was the highest buying total since June 2007 (which is the blue bar circled in red, towards the bottom left of the chart) and eclipses the extreme reached at the October 2007 top. Investors Intelligence notes, that after four months, climax signals for those who sell into buying climaxes and buy into selling climaxes are correct about 80 percent of the time. So another indicator has flashed a “warning” that suggests we be especially attentive to a trend change.

Employment Numbers.

Of course the other thing weighing down the hopes of economic recovery is unemployment.  The numbers haven't been improving.  Moreover, I expect to start hearing about the next wave of big cuts (that cut muscle, and not just corporate fat). Recent quarterly results showing corporate profits were often based on cost-cutting, which may not be sustainable. Revenue is a more telling indicator.

 

This is something that bears watching.  The next topic bears watching too.

All You Need to Know About High Frequency Trading.

Here is a short video from the Jon Stewart Show.  It portrays High-Frequency Trading in a less than flattering light. It was funny; yet made some non-trivial points.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Cash Cow - High-Frequency Trading
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Ron Paul Interview

Ultimately I believe that innovation and intelligence can lead to competitive advantage. And, generally, that is a good thing. However, even a good thing can be taken too far. This is an area that needs some common-sense legislation and oversight. High Frequency Trading makes it too easy to manipulate price and markets.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• S&P Says Stock Buybacks At Lowest Level On Record. (StreetInsider)
• Is Wall Street Taking a Chance on Risk, Again. (DealBook)
• Fretful Investors Sidelined by Rally. (WSJ)
• Kass - Pokes Some Fun at the "Dumb Money" Behind the Rally. (TheStreet)
• More Than Half of Residential Mortgages Made by Just 3 Large Banks. (WSJ)
• If Lehman Hadn't Failed, Would the Crisis Have Happened Anyway? (Economist)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Did Kindle edition of Dan Brown's 'Lost Symbol' Out-Sell Hardcover Editions? (WSJ)
• The "Lost Symbol" Shines Spotlight on Freemasons in Washington. (USNews)
• Leading Research Universities Launch Futurity Online Research Portal. (Duke)
• Simplifying Supplements: Modern Diet is Energy Rich, Yet Nutrient Poor. (Ode)
• Four Things that May Sabotage Your Weight-Loss (USNews)
• Business Intelligence Gives Way to Operational Intelligence. (Forbes)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

How To Keep Track of the National Debt

The Big Red Calculator.

I've known Matt Miles for years; and he does what's necessary to make a point.  He is also a smart and successful entrepreneur.  The result, a new company called Big Red, that makes a calculator with enough digits to display the national debt.

In his own words: "The Big Red Calculator, a 16-digit calculator, makes your old calculator extinct!  First we owed millions.  Then it was billions!   And now-thanks to those wonderful people who brought you deficit spending, we've shattered the trillion-dollar ceiling.  It truly is a proud moment.  But how can the average American keep track of such an incomprehensible number?  The answer is Big Red Calculator.  It is  "the official calculator of the national debt".  Endorsed by professional spenders! Ensuring that "no digit is left behind",  this calculator displays the largest collection of zeros ever assembled."  Yes, you can buy one at Amazon.

Capitalogix Commentary 09/27/09

Bernanke said that the recession is "most likely over"; but added that the recovery would be jobless.

Moreover, recent surveys show that many companies expect to shed jobs in the next 12 months and do not expect to reach former staffing levels before 2012. The question is: How will that affect the economy and the markets?

Are They Buying or Selling the News?

I'm paying attention to indications that the markets have begun selling-off after news.  This is typical behavior near tops and during bearish swings.  In contrast, during the recent rally, the Markets often went up despite bad news.

There Still Is Not Much Selling Pressure.

From a technical and market psychology perspective, we are seeing short spikes of intra-day selling that have not had much follow-through.  However, it seems to me that fewer people are buying the dips and a bunch of negative divergences are in place.  All that means is that it is time to watch major trend lines; they will tell you when something changes. 

Is Something Fishy Churning Just Beneath the Surface of Our Markets?

Several articles claim that up to 40% of the volume in the New York Stock Exchange, recently, occurred in just four financial stocks: Bank of America, Citigroup, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. 

It could be normal, or at least something simple and innocent. Nonetheless, I am suspicious and a little skeptical that such a small group of low-priced stocks could account for such an unusual percent of the trading volume on the NYSE. Realistically, I doubt that it was retail investors jumping-in to drive the rally higher.

So was it churning, high-frequency flash trading, or a tacit government sanctioned way to allow certain funds and brokers to profit while making the markets appear healthier than they are?  I don't know; but it has started people talking.  And it is something that will stay on my radar.

The Changing Face of the Giants of Finance.

On a related topic, the NYTimes had a great interactive graphic showing how the Giants of Finance have changed.  Since the stock market’s peak in October 2007, Wall Street’s landscape has been permanently altered. Lehman Brothers, gone. Bear Stearns, gone. Merrill Lynch, gone. Main Street’s landscape has also changed. Wachovia, National City, Washington Mutual and Countrywide, all gone. These financial giants all crumbled under the weight of the financial crisis.

Those that were left shrank down to a fraction of their former market capitalizations by early 2009, but since then, they all have grown. While most are nowhere near their former size, two — JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo — are slightly larger than they were at the market’s peak.  Click the image to play.

Let me know what you think. Hope you have a great week.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Retail Hopes Running Ahead of Reality. (WSJ)
• As Biggest Banks Repay Bailout Money, the U.S. Sees a Profit. (NYTimes)
• Foreign-Account Holders May Face Double Trouble Treasury & IRS.(InvestNews)
• Wall Street’s Math Wizards Forgot a Few Variables. (NYTimes)
• Econophysicist Predicts Date of Chinese Stock Market Collapse. (TechReview)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• What Do Dogs See, Smell, and Know? (NYTimes)
• How to Profit from Uncertainty While Limiting Your Risk. (Wharton)
• SmartPhoniacs - Addicts of the Information Age. (WSJ)
• The No-Junk Business iPhone Apps Finder for Business. (InfoWorld)
• Why Don't More Apps Take Advantage of Multi-Core Chips? (Forbes)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Capitalogix Commentary 09/20/09

Another week of strong performance by the markets leaves me searching for clues and signs of weakness. It's not that I don't like how the markets are reacting; because this has been a nice traders market. However, trading is about risk management and doing your best to recognize fear or greed.

So, one of the indicators I use to probe beneath the surface of the market is a measure of what the largest traders, Mutual Funds, are doing. There is a phrase that explains this well. Elephants leave tracks.

As you can see, while the markets continue to make new highs, Long-term mutual fund investors have reversed this month; selling shares, rather than dumping money in. Based on the first two weeks of the month, September's outflows will be bigger than the inflows seen in the last three months combined.

It's not surprising that commercial traders are far less bullish than retail investors at this point of the rally.  This Dilbert cartoon sums up the way traders have been playing: "Forage during daylight and Hide at Night."

More telling, perhaps, is that company insiders have been doing their best to sell recently. For example, in August, each dollar of insider buying was dramatically overshadowed by $30 of insider selling.  Here is a chart from Insidercow showing how bearish insiders are right now.

Another indicator of indecision shown by the Japanese candlestick pattern called a Doji. It forms when the market opens and closes at approximately the same price, despite having gone higher and lower throughout the day. It indicates a fundamental disagreement between buyers and sellers, and as you can see by the chart below, often marks a reversal point.  In the daily chart of the NASDAQ, below, I marked Doji reversals.

None of this means that the market is going to make new lows. Instead, they're just clues. In my experience though, it's better to prepare for a storm before it hits. If it passes without incident, the planning and preparation are probably still worthwhile.

If remember the every trade is the result of a disagreement, someone is betting that the price will go up, while someone else is betting that prices going down. Being able to see a trade from both perspectives is a good skill to develop. If you're bullish right now, use the opportunity to understand what a short seller might be seeing at this point in time. And if you're convinced the market is going down, then remember the adage don't fight the Fed and how important sentiment is. Look for areas of breakout to the upside.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Insider Selling Alert: Recently $31 of Selling for each $1 of Buying. (Money)
• Geithner Declares Victory as TARP Nears First Anniversary. (FinancialPlanning)
• FTSE Closes Above 5,000 For First Time Since October. (CityWire.UK)
• What Happened After? ... Tales From Lehman’s Crypt. (NYTimes)
• Where is Buffett Investing Now? (Wall St. & Technology)
• The Return of the Deal: M&A Makes a Comeback. (Economist)
• Video Game Sales Slip for 6th Straight Month. (TechReview)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Sleeping Together May Be Harmful to Health & Relationship. (DJournal)
• NFL Fumbles, Tries To Limit Live Blogging Of Games. (MediaPost)
• Too Much Twitter? Fox TV Invents the 'Tweet-Peat'. (MediaPost)
• Is Artificial Intelligence a Dangerous Dream? (NewScientist)
• Researchers Hope to Mass-Produce Tiny Robots. (PhysOrg)
• What Impact Will "Augmented Reality" Have? (MediaPost)
• Sign of the Times: Airlines Are Sweetening Frequent-Flier Programs. (NYTimes)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Capitalogix Commentary 09/13/09

Let's Get Ready to Rumble.

Football season came just in time. The economy, health-care, and wars were starting to harsh my mellow.

Watching football is like a national meditation technique; it helps quiet the noise and is a great distraction from the daily grind.

The Markets seem to be doing a good job of avoiding what's going on around them.  Price going up despite seemingly bad news is bullish.  Sometimes it seems hard to remember that.

Where Do We Stand on a Longer-Term Chart of the Markets? 

This chart of the S&P 500 Index goes back to 2002. The thick horizontal red line marks the naturally occurring support and resistance line going back to 2003 and 2004. Just above that is the 50% retracement level of the recent decline. So, while price has rallied nicely for more than five months off the recent lows, overhead resistance may soon come into play. Click the chart to see a bigger version.

The chart above also shows that Volume has been a little light; but some of that is seasonal. I expect volume to pick-up soon. The question, of course, is whether prices will trade higher or lower when that happens.

Average Daily Change Plummets.

Bespoke reminds that one of the most remarkable characteristics of last year's market crash was its daily volatility.  At its peak, the 50-Day Average Absolute Daily Change of the S&P 500 surpassed 4%.  That means that the Market gained or lost 4% to 5% of its total value on a daily basis for two months. 

In contrast, the 50-Day Average Absolute Daily Change of the S&P 500 is now under 1%.  This is the lowest level since July of last year.  Markets fall much faster than they rise, so it's no surprise that this number has gone down significantly as the S&P rallied off of its lows.

Shorter-Term, The Market Looks Strong.

The next chart overlays the NASDAQ's Net New Highs on top of the index itself. This measure counts the number of NASDAQ Components making new 52-week highs, and subtracts the number of NASDAQ components making new 52-week lows . So, we get more Net New Highs when the markets are doing better. As it stands, A lot of NASDAQ Components are making highs for the year.  Yet, there are slightly less Net New Highs than we saw in mid-July. So, while this is a little picky, it does constitute a negative divergence. Consequently, I'm watching for a drop-off in this measure as a potential early warning indicator of impending market weakness.

It's been easier to make money on the long side for a long time. I sense a lot of the smart money is daytrading long exposure. In other words, they're happy to trade long, but they're not as happy to take that risk home overnight.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Is Commercial Real Estate Lurking as Next Potential Mortgage Crisis? (WSJ)
• The Failure Caucus: These Guys are Rooting for the Economy to Fail. (Slate)
• Evolving a Business Strategy: New Book on Revising Business Plans.  (Forbes)
• Inquiry Stokes Unease on High-Speed Trading. (DealBook)
• Is the World Losing Faith in the U.S. Dollar? (Wharton)
• Budget Crisis Causing States to Close Offices a-Day-at-a-Time. (TDB)
• Doug Kass: The Next Move Down? It's Different This Time. (TheStreet)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Are Video games the Future of Education? (Economist)
• New Form of Rehab: Center Treats Web Addicts. (NYTimes)
• How Teams of Geeks Crack Spy Trade. (WSJ)
• VMware May Be Microsoft’s Top Rival After Google. (NYTimes)
• YouTube Said to Be in Talks To Offer Full-Length Pay Movies. (NYTimes)
• Apple's Next Big Thing: Still the iPhone; But the Carrier is New. (TheStreet)
• iPhones Overload AT&T's Network, Angering Customers. (NYTimes)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Making Room for New Ideas

How many things that you think you "know" are out-dated or simply not true?  Ignorance isn't always the problem; this video shows that pre-conceived notions pose quite a challenge.

In this Ted Talk, called "Let My Dataset Change Your Mindset", watch as Hans Rosling uses fascinating data-bubble software to burst myths about the developing world, and how the world has developed.

Very interesting for the content ... and the analysis techniques.

For Additional Information.

• Here is the direct link.
• Here is a link to his blog.
• And here is a link to a different Ted Talk Rosling did in 2006.
• Here is a link to commentary about the presentation.