Capitalogix

A Quick Look at S&P 500 and It's Likely Next Move

The S&P 500 Index had its biggest weekly drop of the year last week, with a less-than-whopping fall of 0.50%. 

Yep, half a percent. Moreover, it was only the second week of the year out of twelve in which the index posted a decline.  Results like that make traders fat, dumb and happy.

With a year to date gain of more than 11%, the S&P 500 is on pace for its second consecutive quarter of 10%+ gains.  According to Bespoke, if this holds, it will be just the 12th time in the index's history that it has posted double digit percentage gains in back to back quarters.

Here is a chart showing the daily performance of the Index. 

 

 
Note the area circled in red.  That marks where price came back inside the upper Bollinger Band.  Technical analysts might expect that the first likely target would be the mid-line (marked by the dotted blue line).  In this case, it also corresponds with likely support at the short-term up-trend line (marked by the green arrow).  Add the weak volume of the recent decline ... and you might have the recipe for a new rally?

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Information Avalanche. More Info Doesn’t Always Lead to Better Understanding. (HBR)
• 'Personal Cloud' to Replace PC by 2014, Says Gartner. (Wired)
• The Social Credit Card. AmEx Syncs With Twitter To Turn #Hashtags Into Savings (FC)
• Partners in ‘Slime’: Feds Keep Buying Ammonia-Treated Ground Beef. (TheDaily)
• A Gut-Check for Many Ailments. What's going on in your head may be caused partly by what's happening in your gut. (WSJ)

 

Trading Links:

• Apple Woulda-Coulda Had the Dow at 15,290. (Businessweek)
• Banks and Consumers Are Adopting Tablets Faster Than Expected. (HuffingtonPost)
• How America’s Richest Companies Invest Their Cash. (247WallSt)
• Finance Isn’t as Amoral as It Seems. By Robert Shiller. (Bloomberg)
• Top Secret: The Chinese Envoy’s Briefing Paper on Australia’s Economy. (NakedCapitalism)

Something Is Always Working - The Trick is Finding It While It's Working.

The S&P 500 Index is entering a seasonally bullish period.  The chart below shows the predicted turning points based on the past five years of historical data. 

 

 

Something potentially different this year is that the S&P 500 Index has performed pretty well year-to-date.  In fact, it is up 12.17% so far ... and things look pretty strong until May.

However,the chart below should serve as a reminder that there a lot other markets worth trading too.  For starters, the DAX is up 21.18% so far this year.

The chart shows the top-ten performing markets for the past few years.   Click the chart to see an expanded version of this data.

 

  
Note how much diversification there has been in the top-ten throughout the years.

That is the funny thing about markets ... something is always working.  The trick is finding it while it's working.

 

Related articles

• US Dollar and Oil Hold Clues About the Future (minyanville.com)
• Was Friday's Price Action in Gold Signaling a Top in the S&P 500? (minyanville.com)
• Money Flow for February Week Four (slopeofhope.com)

A Little Monday Morning Motivation

I spent part of last week at the Inc. Magazine GROWCO Conference.

If you're not still learning ... your dying.  So, consider continuing education part of your perpetual youth plan.

Plus, there are plenty worse places to be then New Orleans ...

With that said, I know I'm getting older because after walking through the French Quarter - the part of me I most wanted rubbed were my feet. (I wish I was joking).

The first speaker was the Mayor of New Orleans.  He explained that one of the key decisions they made after Katrina wasn't to re-build the city ... instead, it was to build the city they always wanted New Orleans to be.

Bill Clinton was there, too.  He was articulate, charismatic and clever. But the star of the show (based on audience response and the rush of people to get his autograph) was Daymond John (of FUBU and Shark Tank fame).

 

 

Daymond talked about his five Shark Rules:  1. Set Goals; 2. Do your Homework; 3. Always do what you love; 4. Remember you are the brand; and 5. Keep moving.

He stressed that the secret to power is to be decisive.

He also shared that the money they invest on the Shark Tank show really comes from each of them; however, only about 20% of the deals actually get to a closing. 

Daymond said that he invests in people, not companies.  Moreover, he claims that each of Sharks know who they will invest in within the first minute of the presentation (and he suspects that is how most business-people make decisions).  Interesting.

 

Related articles

• 6 Inspirations from GrowCo (inc.com)
• Daymond John: From FUBU to Business Marketing Mogul (hubspot.com)
• Your Quick and Dirty Guide to Sharktank (blogmaverick.com)
• Daymond John: Why I Invest in People, Not Companies (inc.com)
• Ten Lessons I Learned from Shark Tank (techcrunch.com)

Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Here Is Why To-Do Lists Don't Work. (HarvardBusinessReview)
• The Nine Flavors of Windows 8 Show How Microsoft & Apple Differ. (TechCrunch)
• Music Bloodline is a Great Music Discovery Tool for Spotify Users. (Gizmodo)
• Posing the Question: What Is Competitive Yoga? (TheDaily)
• Firefox Plug-in Reveals The Small Army Stalking You On The Web. Try this real-time visualization to reveal the parade of spies tracking you. Cool but Scary. (FastCoDesign)

 

Trading Links:

• Buy-and-Hold Can’t Die. (AlephBlog)
• What’s Behind the High Gas Prices at the Pump? (Mint)
• You Hear That?  It's Quiet ... Too Quiet. (Wall Street Journal)
• David Stockman: 'You'd Be a Fool to Hold Anything But Cash Now'.  (BizInsider)
• Our New Financial Overlord? IBM’s ‘Jeopardy!’-Winning Artificial Brain Gets a Job on Wall Street. (TheDaily)

Year-to-Date Market Performance Chart

Here's a breakdown of forty global futures based on year-to-date performance.

It might be interesting to compare how your favorite market stands up to this list of various markets?
 

Other Performance Breakdowns:

• Weekly
• Monthly
• Quarterly
• Yearly
•  

Related articles

• 50 Best Performing Stocks Year to Date (bespokeinvest.com)
• 2012 Country Stock Market Performance (bespokeinvest.com)
• Key ETF Performance (bespokeinvest.com)

Check-Out This Official Notice of Formal Apology

As a public service, I am sharing this Formal Apology from the Bureau of Communication.

 

 

 

 

Failure to use it has consequences.

For example, have you seen this video of what an angry father can do to his daughter's laptop?

 

 

 

Do you applaud the standard he is trying to teach her ... or are you tempted to call Child Protective Services?

If she had just used the apology form ...

 

Related articles

• Police visit Facebook dad who shot daughter's laptop (news.cnet.com)
• Dad Who Shot Daughter's Laptop, Gets Visit from Child Protective Services (blippitt.com)
• Dad draws raves, reprimands for answering daughter's Facebook rant with nine .45 rounds in her laptop (mercurynews.com)

Do You Care that the U.S. Equity Market Continues to March Higher?

There has been a disconnect.  Individual investors don't seem to care that the market continues to rally.

Here is a chart showing continued investor out-flows, even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits multi-year highs.

 

  

History seems to be on the Bulls' side.  Here is a Bespoke chart showing what has happened after the S&P 500 Index rallies 15% (or more) in a three-month period.

 

 

 

It has been a pretty bullish indicator.

Moreover, sentiment is not not so frothy since the rally has been so widely ignored by individual investors.  As a result, traders don't expect much panic-selling on a move down.

In addition, the Markets have been resilient through some scary news cycles recently. 

The question is: can it continue? 

Well, if the Market can't shake-out some sellers, the next surprise could very well be another move higher.

Related articles

• GOLDMAN SACHS: 3 Reasons Why Investors Should Take US Election Cycles Very Seriously (businessinsider.com)
• Money Flow for February Week Three (slopeofhope.com)

Some Interesting Links for Your Weekend Reading

You don't have to look hard to find prices going up.

 

 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Most Expensive City to Live In the World Survey. Can you guess? (HuffingtonPost)
• The Personal Computer Is Dead. Product is transforming into service. (TechReview)
• Is the Laptop Dead Too? Yup. (FastCompany)
• Car Dealers Wince at a Site to End Sales Haggling. (NYTimes)
• Exercise Your Body/Mind. Some of these videos are crazy. See for yourself. (Video)

 

Trading Links:

• The Really Simple Argument For Why QE3 Is About To Hit. (BusinessInsider)
• When Should Traders Be In or Out of Markets? From Joe Fahmy. (BigPicture)
• Ultrafast Trades Trigger Black Swan Events Every Day, Say Econophysicists. (TR)
• The Target at Post-Bailout GM – Earning $10 Billion a Year.  (WSJ)
• Stock Broken: Why Trying to Stop Congress from Insider Trading Might Backfire. (TD)

Are You an Optimist, Pessimist, Realist or Opportunist?

A simple explanation of what happens in the Market.

 

 

 

 

Are you an Optimist, Pessimist, Realist or Opportunist?