Capitalogix

Here Are Some Interesting Links to Read This Weekend

Sometimes, seemingly simple tasks are harder than they should be. Thought this was an interesting graphic. Go ahead, count the black dots.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• How Hard Are You Willing to Push Yourself? (Harvard Business Review)
• What Makes Bad Writing? Hard to define, but we know it when we see it. (WSJ)
• Why Today’s Tablets Don’t Really Matter. (Economist)
• CyberCriminals Sniff-Out Vulnerable Firms - Video. (Wall Street Journal)
• Why Surveillance Cameras Could Make Us Better People. (TheAtlantic)

 

Trading Links:

• 'You Didn't Build That ...' More on Obama’s burst of ideological rhetoric. (WSJ)
• Three Central Banks Act to Stimulate More Borrowing. (NYTimes)
• The Incredible Shrinking American Government. 169K Jobs Gone in a Year (Atlantic)
• 10 Signs of Economic Trouble That China’s Official Data Won’t Tell. (AlsoSprach)
• What If Speed Traders Competed on Price? (Businessweek)

The S&P 500 Index is Entering a Seasonally Weak Period

The S&P 500 Index is entering a seasonally weak period.  The chart below shows the predicted turning points based on the past five years of historical data. 

 

 

History does not typically repeat itself, exactly; but it often rhymes.  So, it makes sense to keep seasonal tendencies in mind.  With that said, some things potentially different this year include that this is an election year and world governments are coordinating central bank stimulus actions.

However, the chart below should serve as a reminder that there a lot other markets worth trading too.  For starters, Soybeans are up 45.25% so far this year.

The chart shows the top-ten performing markets, ranked by yearly performance, for the past few years.   The data is color coded based on sector. The first column posts the current year's open performance followed by six columns of closed yearly market performance.

 

 
Note how much diversification there has been in the top-ten throughout the years.  Click the chart to see an expanded version of this data (showing 40 global futures markets).

That is the funny thing about markets ... something is always working.  The trick is finding it while it's working.

Related articles

• S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points (ritholtz.com)
• S&P 500 Index: Summer Is a Time for Patience and Endurance (minyanville.com)
• S&P 500 Index: Put Your Seatbelts On, It's About To Get Bumpy (INDEXSP:.INX, SPY) (etfdailynews.com)

212° - The Extra Degree (a motivational video)

Too many times, a brainstorming session to figure-out how to do something turns into a discussion about how or why it can't be done.

Here's to getting it done anyway!

Sometimes a little extra is all it takes.

It's the extra degree of effort that often separates the good from the great.

For example, at 211°, water is hot. At 212°, it boils.

The one extra degree makes the difference. It's that extra degree that can power a locomotive.

This simple analogy reflects the ultimate definition of excellence. Because it's the one extra degree of effort, in business and life, that can separate the good from the great.

Here is a video.

 

212: The Extra Degree.

It is from Mac Anderson's Simple Truths. I'm a fan of their work, which takes a simple idea and presents it in a memorable way ... with lots of great quotes and stories to illustrate the concept even better.

Yes, they have an iPhone/iPad app.

It's your life ... You are responsible for your results. It's time to turn up the heat!  Are you content with just being pretty good? Or are you ready to go the extra degree?

Related articles

• Executive Coach's Tip: Problems ... What Problems? (careersuccess.typepad.com)
• TGIF ~ Another Superb Inspirational Movie (rainsoftottawa.wordpress.com)

Here is a Comparison of Global Markets' Performance So Far This Year

The world has faced tough conditions so far this year ... and yet somehow the major indices have held-up reasonably well.

In addition, the up-coming election will impact markets.  Clearly, the Democrats would love to see a rally.  In contrast, I've heard Republican CEOs admit that they are consciously casting doubt on the economy.

Despite the onslaught of scary news stories and political maneuverings, the S&P 500 managed to gain approximately 7% in the first half of this year. Pretty impressive considering ...

So, how does that compare to other markets around the world? Here is an interactive chart to answer that question.

 

 

In the first half of the year, Germany's DAX and India's BSE Sensex did quite well. Meanwhile, France's CAC and London's FTSE were relatively flat ... while Canada, Brazil, and Spain haven't kept up.

According to Business Insider, Venezuela had the biggest percentage gain (115%) while Cyprus had the biggest loss (-52%). Not surprisingly, smaller European nations clutter the bottom of the list.

Related articles

• Ray Dalio of Bridgewater: Global Economy is Weakest Since 2009 (valuewalk.com)
• Asian Stocks Fall as Bernanke Warns on Economy (abcnews.go.com)
• Watch How Germany Ate Everyone Else's Lunch After The Euro Was Created (businessinsider.com)

Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

China won the first Olympic gold ... by manufacturing uniforms.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• Patent Trawler Aims to Predict Next Hot Technologies. (NewScientist)
• The 10 Things Economics Can Tell Us About Happiness. (TheAtlantic)
• In Age of Twitter, NBC Rewrites Olympic Playbook. (Wall Street Journal)
• Salt, We Misjudged You. We Only Think We Know the Truth About Salt. (NYTimes)
• 'Sterilization Team' Cleans Away Madonna's DNA. Here's a diva demand you probably haven't heard before … (Newser)

 

Trading Links:

• Top 100 Respected Companies, Ranked By Investors. Apple is No. 1 (LATimes)
• Frenemies: Small Retailers Forced to Compete with Amazon on Amazon. (WSJ)
• Investors Cast Doubt on End-of-World Hedge Strategies. (Reuters)
• The Choice in 2012: Social Darwinism or a Decent Society? (RobertReich)
• Wealth Funds Step Up Their Activities. Sovereign wealth funds are becoming more active. They made investments worth 42 percent more in 2011 than in 2010. (FT)

Socrates' Triple Filter Test and the Modern World

Small distinctions separate wise men from fools.  Perhaps one of them has to do with what the wise man deems important.

 

Socrates' Triple Filter.

In ancient Greece, Socrates was reputed to hold knowledge in high esteem.  One day an acquaintance met the great philosopher and said, "Do you know what I just heard about your friend?"

"Hold on a minute," Socrates replied. "Before telling me anything, I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."

"Triple filter?"

"That's right," Socrates continued.  "Before you talk to me about my friend, it might be a good idea to take a moment and filter what you're going to say. That's why I call it the triple filter test.

The first filter is Truth.  Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?"

"No," the man said, "Actually I just heard about it and..."

"All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness.  Is what you are about to tell me about my friend something good?"

"No, on the contrary..."

"So," Socrates continued, "You want to tell me something bad about him, but you're not certain it's true.  You may still pass the test though, because there's one filter left.  The third filter is Usefulness.  Is what you want to tell me about my friend going to be useful to me?"

"No, not really."

"Well," concluded Socrates, "If what you want to tell me is neither true, nor good, nor even useful ... then why tell it to me at all?"

 

How Does That Apply to Me or Trading?

  The concept of Socrates' Triple Filter applies to trading as well.

As a technical trader, rather than looking at fundamental data and scouring the news daily, I focus on developing dynamic and adaptive systems and processes to look at the universe of trading algorithms to identify which are in-phase and likely to perform well in the current market environment.

One of the arguments in favor of technical analysis is that fundamental data, news, and sentiment are already built-in to the chart.

 

Filter Out What Isn't Good For You.

In contrast, there are too many ways that the media (meaning the techniques, graphics, music, etc.), the people reporting it, and even the news itself, appeals to the fear and greed of human nature.

This is the main reason that I don't watch CNBC during the trading day.  Even though I like it on several levels ... I don't think it helps me.  So I filter it and get the news in other ways.

Likewise, I don't watch TV news anymore either. It seems like story after story is about terrible things. For example during a recent visit with my mother, I listened to her watch the news.  There was a constant stream of "oh no," or "oh my," and "that's terrible". You don't even have to watch the news to know what it says.

 
Focus On What You Want.

Instead, I get the news I need a different way that is more efficient and productive for me. I subscribe to certain things via e-mail, and other things via RSS feeds.  Then I supplement those with a series of search services that alert me to items that match the criteria I set. An example would be Google Alerts.  Two other nice alert services are from the Financial Times and the New York Times.  Recently I've also been using two great iPad apps - one is called Flipboard, the other is called Zite.

Check them out.  It will save you a lot of time and effort.

Personally, I care about the source of my news. It helps me identify and account for potential bias. So using subscriptions, feed readers, and alert services help here too.

Another reason I like these tools is that I can use different filters for different purposes.

 

What's The Purpose Of News For You?

My purpose changes what I'm looking for and the amount of attention I pay to different types of information. Am I reading or watching the news for entertainment, to learn something new, or to find something relevant and actionable?

Getting back to Socrates' three filters and the business of trading, I ask might: is it important, does it affect our edge, or can I use it as a catalyst for innovation?

What is Libor and Why Should You Care?

So, you heard that Barclays was accused of fixing Libor rates.

 

 

What is Libor and Why Should You Care?

 

 

 

Barclays was fined $450 million and its chief operating officer, CEO, and Chairman all resigned.

It looks like this scandal is about to get bigger. In the meantime, here is a spoof of a recent Barclays ad.

Related articles

• NIGHTMARE: New York Times Reports Prosecutors Are Building LIBOR-Related Criminal Charges Against Several Banks (businessinsider.com)
• Key Highlights From Fed Lieborgate Disclosure (zerohedge.com)
• Libor, corruption in high places (roopost.wordpress.com)
• How big could the Libor scandal get? (bbc.co.uk)
• Warren Buffett: Libor Scandal 'Involves The Whole World' (huffingtonpost.com)

Here Are Some Links for Your Weekend Reading

What we perceive seems real to us.  However, things are not always as they appear. 

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Thinking Tools. Lots of nice strategies and models available to download. (Cap)
• Reinventing the Ivy League. Can an online, for-profit university become Elite? (CNN)
• Bright Fright. Exposure to nighttime light risks obesity and cancer. (TheDaily)
• How Europe Could Cost Obama the Election. (Niall Ferguson)
• ‘We the People’ Loses Appeal With People Around the World. The U.S. Constitution is used less as a model for constitutional drafters elsewhere. (NYTimes)

 

Trading Links:

• Top 10 Countries With Most Millionaires. (Advisorone)
• John Hussman Makes New U.S. Recession Call. (DailyCapitalist)
• Apartment Vacancies at 11 Year Low. (EconIntersect)
• Twitter Can Help Predict Winners and Losers on the Stock Market. (Mashable)
• Fairy Tales Started Dark, Got Cute, and Are Now Getting Dark Again. Is that a Bearish sign? (TheAtlantic)

The Too True Story of the Nail in the Fence.

This is a good one.  It hit home for me.  Hopefully you'll like it too.

Nail In The Fence:

There once was a little boy who had a bad temper. His Father gave him a bag of nails and told him that every time he lost his temper, he must hammer a nail into the back of the fence.

The first day the boy had driven 37 nails into the fence. Over the next few weeks, as he learned to control his anger, the number of nails hammered daily gradually dwindled down.

He discovered it was easier to hold his temper than to drive those nails into the fence.

Finally the day came when the boy didn't lose his temper at all. He told his father about it; and the father suggested that the boy now pull out one nail for each day that he was able to hold his temper.

The days passed and the young boy was finally able to tell his father that all the nails were gone.

The father took his son by the hand and led him to the fence. He said, "You have done well, my son, but look at the holes in the fence. The fence will never be the same. When you say things in anger, they leave a scar just like this one. You can put a knife in a man and draw it out. It won't matter how many times you say I'm sorry, the wound is still there." A verbal wound is as bad as a physical one.

My Note:

Sometimes I am harsh, and more hurtful than I intend.  Anger and fear cause some of it.  Sometimes it happens because I want to be funny (even at someone's expense).  Other times it happens because I want to help someone -- and I choose to be direct -- regardless of how they will "feel it" when I deliver the message.

For the most part, I never intend to leave a "hole". This story was a good reminder to be mindful of cause and intent.  Hope it helps.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Anger Management, Worth It? (blogs.wsj.com)
• Forgive + Forget = Freedom (Day 25 Dare) (lauramaly.wordpress.com)
• Anderson & Anderson in Wall Street Journal (angerblog.wordpress.com)
• Really? Is Shouting the New Spanking? (blogs.wsj.com)

Amusing and Educational Video Explaining the Higgs Boson

You don't need to be a geek to understand this fun video that offers a simple explanation of the Higgs Boson.  But, after watching, you'll know enough to sound like one ...

 

The Higgs Boson Explained from PHD Comics on Vimeo.

 

 

Related articles

• Cartoon Explains Higgs Boson [VIDEO] (mashable.com)