Capitalogix

Bill Gates: 40 Years in 83 Seconds

Bill Gates co-founded Microsoft, becoming the world's richest man.

For his second act, he is becoming world's greatest philanthropist.

Here is the letter he wrote to his employees on the 40th anniversary of Microsoft, last week.

 

Tomorrow is a special day: Microsoft's 40th anniversary.

Early on, Paul Allen and I set the goal of a computer on every desk and in every home. It was a bold idea and a lot of people thought we were out of our minds to imagine it was possible. It is amazing to think about how far computing has come since then, and we can all be proud of the role Microsoft played in that revolution.

Today though, I am thinking much more about Microsoft's future than its past. I believe computing will evolve faster in the next 10 years than it ever has before. We already live in a multi-platform world, and computing will become even more pervasive. We are nearing the point where computers and robots will be able to see, move, and interact naturally, unlocking many new applications and empowering people even more.

Under Satya's leadership, Microsoft is better positioned than ever to lead these advances. We have the resources to drive and solve tough problems. We are engaged in every facet of modern computing and have the deepest commitment to research in the industry. In my role as technical advisor to Satya, I get to join product reviews and am impressed by the vision and talent I see. The result is evident in products like Cortana, Skype Translator, and HoloLens -- and those are just a few of the many innovations that are on the way.

In the coming years, Microsoft has the opportunity to reach even more people and organizations around the world. Technology is still out of reach for many people, because it is complex or expensive, or they simply do not have access. So I hope you will think about what you can do to make the power of technology accessible to everyone, to connect people to each other, and make personal computing available everywhere even as the very notion of what a PC delivers makes its way into all devices.

We have accomplished a lot together during our first 40 years and empowered countless businesses and people to realize their full potential. But what matters most now is what we do next. Thank you for helping make Microsoft a fantastic company now and for decades to come.

 

via Twitter.

Here is a quick video that shows 40 years of Bill Gates and Microsoft (in 83 seconds).

 

 

via CNN/Money.

Thoughts from the Market Technicians Association Conference

I recently attended the Market Technicians Association's Annual Symposium in New York City.

It's always interesting for me to hang around with the leaders in our industry and to talk with other technical traders.

This picture is with Barry Ritholtz, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of RWM.

 

 

Barry did a great job on stage at the event. He also does a great job with his blog, The Big Picture.

Several people asked about the market sentiment expressed amongst the attendees. I think it's fair to say that most people were cautiously bullish. On one hand, that means that most people there recognize that the trend is up, and that the trend remains up until price proves otherwise.  On the other hand, most people were surprised that price has held up, this well, considering the political, economic, and social factors that can affect market prices.

On a different topic, algorithmic trading is still not mainstream. By that, I mean that currently neither algorithmic trading nor quantitative trading is part of the core practice or thought process of a group like this.

It reminds me of how most market participants considered technical analysis in the late 90s or early 2000's.

My sense is that these topics will grow in importance (to a group like the MTA) quickly as an increasing percentage of trades are based on this area of domain expertise and practice.

Stocks are the Most Expensive They've Ever Been

For what it is worth, the median stock in the S&P 500 is the most expensive it has even been.  Moreover, many valuation indicators are now at "the highest ever, except 2000". 

 

 

Perhaps when the economy is truly booming, that might make sense ... or be considered a good sign. 

At this point, it is more likely a good sign for short-sellers.

 

Traders understand that the prevailing trend has been up (and will remain that way, despite logic or argument, until price proves otherwise).

 

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Show Me The Money - How Big Have Sports Broadcast Rights Become?

March Madness is upon us.

In case you missed it, sports is big business.

Here is a chart showing the broadcast fees paid to various sports leagues.

 

via Financial Times.

Is the bubble going to burst?  The trend of the past 20 years suggests that it won’t.

Broadcasters have been locking in their costs through long-term deals. That also makes it harder for tech companies — such as Netflix, Google or Apple — to buy into the market.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekend Reading

According to the President, the new three branches of government are ... me, myself, and I.

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye. Hope you find something interesting.

 

Lighter Links:

• The Power of Checklists. (Art of Manliness)
• The Most Thought Provoking Articles of the Year. (Brain Pickings)
• The Secret Meanings Behind 40 Brand Logos. (Marketing Land)
• The Science of Misheard Lyrics. (New Yorker)
• Why We Love Back Rubs, Chili Peppers, and the Sex from “50 Shades”. (Salon)

 

Trading Links:

• Saudi Arabia 'Engineered' Oil Crisis: Says Dallas Fed Chief. (Money)
• A Few Things To Know About Technical Analysis. (Stock Charts)
• Meet The Man Who Wants To Build The ESPN Of Finance. (HuffPost)
• A Netflix for Private Flights: A Members-Only Airline. (Fast Company)
• AT&T Dumped by Dow. Time to Buy? History suggests it's worth a look. (Markets)

9 Out Of 10 Big Pharma Companies Spent More On Marketing Than On R&D

This speaks for itself.

 

via DadaViz.

Of course, sometimes it can be said better.

The NASDAQ Composite Index Closed over 5,000 for the First Time in 15 Years

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed over 5,000 this week for the first time in 15 years.

A lot has changed since then.

For example, only three of the top 10 companies in the index remain the same.

 

via NYTimes.

But, notice the change in market cap for those that remain.

The only thing that remains constant is change.

Apple Now Twice as Big as the 2nd Largest Company in the World!

Apple stock has gained about 20% since the start of the year.

 

That may be cool, in-and-of-itself, but Apple's ever-expanding market cap continues to make headlines for other reasons. 

 

Last week, Bespoke tweeted that Apple's market cap surpassed the combined market caps of every single stock in the S&P 600 Small Cap index!

 

Moreover, Apple is also now more than twice as large as the second largest company (Exxon Mobil) in the world.  Below is a comparison of the market caps for Apple and Exxon going back to 2000.  

 

via Bespoke.

Just 15 years ago, Apple was struggling as a public company -- in December 2000 its market cap had dipped to just $4.65 billion.  15 years later, and Apple now has a market cap of $770 billion!

Below is a list of the 40 largest stocks in the S&P 500.  For each stock, Bespoke highlights its "Apple Multiplier", or the amount that each company would have to multiply by to reach the size of Apple.

 

 

As shown, Apple is currently 2.04x as big as Exxon Mobil -- the second largest company in the S&P.  Apple is more than 3x the size of companies like General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Facebook, and JP Morgan.  

Pretty staggering numbers.

Your Point of View Changes Your Trading Opportunities

I just spent the week celebrating Chinese New Year with Jennifer's side of the family In Jakarta.  

Gong Xi Fa Cai ... which translates to "Best wishes for a prosperous New Year!"

 

 

Interesting to think how many New Year celebrations there are.  In addition to CNY, the Muslims have Hari Raya Idul Fitri; Jews have Rosh Hashanah; of course there is January 1st (and there are many others).

Which is correct?  

It's all a matter of perspective.

The same is true in trading.  At some level, there really isn't a correct answer to which trading style is best.

Whether you are choosing from fundamental analysis, technical analysis, trend following, channel breakouts, or statistical arbitrage, people have their opinions, but sometimes one works better than the others.

It is a lot easier to go to a party, when there is a party to go to ... the trick is finding the celebration in the first place.

MAP: Living Costs Around the World

This map shows the difference in living costs around the world using figures from the world's largest database of user contributed data about cities and countries worldwide.

The Consumer Price Index, used to determine the difference in the living costs between countries, takes into account the prices of groceries, transportation, restaurants and utilities.

 

 

There are many more charts with specific data by region.  The chart below shows the places with the highest and lowest costs of living.

 

via MoveHub.

 

The CPI in the infographic is a relative indicator of a country's living costs compared to New York. So, for instance, if a country has a CPI of 70, on average it enjoys 30% cheaper living costs compared to New York.