Capitalogix

Capitalogix Commentary 05/24/09

A good magician misdirects your focus with clever patter, distracting gestures and a pretty assistant.  Why does that remind me about the current state of market perception and the economy? 

Perhaps in part because of the rosy picture the recent rally paints, while few notice the plunge in S&P 500 earnings.  That means the great bargain you think you are buying isn't such a bargain.

Stocks Are Expensive Again.

The chart below, from Chart of the Day, illustrates how this plunge in earnings has impacted the current valuation of the stock market as measured by the price to earnings ratio (PE ratio).

Generally speaking, when the PE ratio is high, stocks are considered to be expensive. When the PE ratio is low, stocks are considered to be inexpensive. From 1936 into the late 1980s, the PE ratio tended to peak in the low 20s (red line) and trough somewhere around seven (green line). The price investors were willing to pay for a dollar of earnings increased during the dot-com boom (late 1990s) and the dot-com bust (early 2000s).

As a result of the current plunge in earnings and the recent 2.5 month stock market rally, the PE ratio has spiked to the low 120s – a record high.

Click here for a different perspective on this chart. 

Precious Metals Are Performing Well.

At the same time, there is another trend worth watching.  Money is moving to gold.

The chart displays the relative performance of several market sectors over the past few weeks.  The chart below shows the same data, but compared to Gold as the baseline.  It highlights how dramatically the other markets have under-performed recently.

The recent financial crisis has clearly re-ignited investor interest in precious metals.  Many believe that gold and silver are good bets during tough times - and a hedge against inflation.  So it doesn't surprise me that I'm hearing more investors using Warehouse Depositary Receipts to actually take delivery of the asset rather than just speculating.

What To Expect.

A short-term bounce wouldn't surprise me here.  The markets have held-up fairly well after the big rally.  So another test higher makes sense.  However, based on the weakening internals, the intermediate-term outlook is looking more bearish to me.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Will the Fed's Medicine have Inflationary Side-Effects? (WSJ)
• Treasury's Next Phase Of Bank Rescue: Buying Toxic Assets. (Dealbook NYTimes)
• Two Tech IPOs This Week: Is The Dry Spell Over? (NYTimes)
• Financiers In China Are Getting Leery Of Dollars & Are Accumulating Gold. (Forbes)
• Russians Offers to Invest $200 Million in Facebook at $10 Billion valuation. (WSJ)
• Despite Russia's Struggling Economy, Its Market Surges. (NYTimes)
• Is A Low VIX Good? Not In My Experience. Who's Afraid Of the Bear? (Money)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• How Well Can You Live In India On $2 Per Day? (Slate)
• Verne Harnish Insights & Best Practices for Growing Leaders and Companies. (Blog)
• In Praise of Dullness: the CEO Traits That Most Help Them Thrive. (NYTimes)
• When Will Computer Intelligence Surpass Our Own? (NYTimes)
• IBM Unveils Software to Find Trends in Vast Data Sets. (NYTimes)
• Kindle Books Now Account for 35% of Sales When Available. (Business Insider)
• Why Predictions Based On Search Were Wrong About 'Idol' Winner. (MediaPost)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Capitalogix Commentary 05/17/09

As expected, the Markets have hit some resistance and are losing momentum.

It will be interesting to see whether people view this as an investment opportunity ... or the beginning of the next leg down.

The "new rally" offensive sectors are now under-performing. In particular, Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors are showing weakness. In contrast, the defensive sectors are outperforming ... with Healthcare, Utilities, and Consumer Staples showing relative strength. Energy is also outperforming the broader market.

Even though this change is relatively new, it does show a change in risk appetite. Investors and traders are turning more cautious on the market overall.

Here is a chart showing where the NYSE finds itself.

Are Small Investors Paying Attention?

Marty Chenard's StockTiming site often highlights interesting trading ideas and statistics.  The chart below is from his site, and shows how large investors and small investors reacted differently to market conditions earlier this week.

The chart shows the volume of Advancing and/or Declining shares for the New York Stock Exchange, the NASDAQ, the American Stock Exchange, and the Over The Counter Bulletin Board.  (OTC stocks are generally unlisted stocks which trade on the Over the Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB) or on the pink sheets.)

It is easy to see that larger investors were taking profits ... while smaller investors were still buying.

That would be significant if it continues.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Why Economists Failed To Predict The Financial Crisis. (Wharton)
• Insider Selling: Disney Finance Chief's $1.9 Million Sale. (Barrons)
• Green Shoots Or False Hope About Economic Recovery? (FT)
• Stock-Market Sages Say Worst Is To Come. (TheStreet.com)
• How The Govt Made Economic Problems To Justify Its Solutions. (Forbes)
• Banks Pass Stress Test - Regulators Fail Ethics Test. (Hussman)
• Why Did Cash-Rich Microsoft Sell Its First Bonds? (WSJ)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Is Google Insurmountable? (WSJ Blogs)
• The Rebirth Of News: Papers Are Folding as News Flourishes On The Internet. (Economist)
• Asking A Machine To Spot Threats Human Eyes Miss. (Technology Review)
• A New Type Of War Game At West Point; Training For Cyber Foes. (NYT)
• The CIO's Dilemma: How Long Can You Do More With Less? (Forbes)
• Creative Minds - The Links Between Mental Illness And Creativity (Independent Uk)
• Vitamins Found To Curb Exercise Benefits: Are Antioxidants the Problem? (NYT)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Capitalogix Commentary 05/10/09

The market has been tenaciously bullish recently. Apparently it's working, because I hear an increasing amount of people optimistic about the markets.

I'm glad that our trading is based on mechanical models, because recently mechanical models have worked quite well. 

Personally, though, I'm feeling a lot more cautious.  The markets seem pathologically bullish; and I am looking for a pull-back.

What concerns me is that we haven't seen the back and forth ... two steps forward, then one step back, rhythm that I've come to trust. Instead I sense something artificial and likely to break down. For example, since this rally began in early March, there have only been four days with negative reversals greater than 1%.

Can The Economies Of This Many Countries All Get Fixed At The Same Time?

Moreover, a quick glance around the globe shows remarkably similar bullish performance in many markets.

To get a closer look for yourself, here is a link to the charts.

Other Signs That We're Approaching Over-Extended.

I'm starting to see the Smart Money lighten up their bets at the same time I'm seeing retail investors starting to get back into the game; and the VIX is at a low not seen since last September. It feels like we are getting close to the type of confidence spread that often immediately precedes a major turning point.  It is the point where the market is making higher highs, while smart traders are becoming more risk-averse. This negative divergence often perceives market pullbacks.

Again, in my opinion, a pullback from this level is expected and perhaps even healthy. What I'm looking for is to see a healthy correction and then, hopefully, organic buying from the Smart Money.

Elliott Wave Pattern.

I was talking to a friend of mine who successfully trades using Elliott Wave as a framework for understanding the market.  And I thought this might be an interesting time to re-visit this technique.

The premise is that the market doesn't affect sentiment.  Rather, it is the other way around;  collective sentiment affects the market.  And that while markets change, human nature doesn't ... consequently, predictable patterns play out over and over again.

While I now look at Elliott Wave more as a way of understanding what the market has done (rather than a great predictor of what it will do next), I do believe it is helpful in getting a sense of the next likely swing. 

Here is a chart that shows the basic sequence and an example of the sentiment causing the move.

The next chart shows that a similar sequence often happens in both directions.

All this reminded me that I have a piece of software called the Advanced GET, which uses a pretty clever algorithm for identifying some of the simpler Gann and Elliott Wave trading patterns. So I dusted-it-off, fired-it-up, and started playing around.

Looking at a weekly chart of the NASDAQ, it's very easy to envision a five wave sequence as follows.

Note that the wave five target is beneath the recent lows. And that the wave four pullback takes us back to the top of the channel ... and seems to have textbook Elliott Wave size, slope, and timing.

Again, I don't trade the Elliott Wave. Yet it fascinates me, and is something that I do pay attention to as a framework.  Add to all this that the daily chart of the NASDAQ shows that price is stalled at its 200 day moving average, and I'm certainly going to be wary of a pull-back here.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Is The Recession Over? (Forbes)
• Wall St Continues to Rally; S&P positive for '09. (Reuters)
• Bernanke's Outlook A Bit Brighter, But Forecasts Slow Recovery. (WP)
• The End Of The IPO Drought Is Coming. (A VC)
• Venture Capital's Dilemma: the prescription for curing IPO ills. (Forbes)
• Economic View - Depression Scares Are Hardly New. (NYT)
• Feds Bailing Out States. (TDB)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• The Science Of Concentration: Multi-Tasking Is A Myth. (NYT)
• Amazon's Secret Weapon: Recommendations Based On Your Interests. (Forbes)
• Coldplay Plagiarism Claims Filed By Three Artists (PopEater)
• Funny Video - Real Life Twitter (E-Guiders)
• Microsoft's Ozzie On Web Strategy & the Next Big Thing In Tech. (Forbes)
• Shorter URLs Provide Real Value and Make Tracking Easier (NYTimes)
• Publishers Nurture Rivals To Kindle (WSJ)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Capitalogix Commentary 05/01/09

"Sell in May and Go Away" is a popular market aphorism.  Still, the markets continue to hold up well despite less than favorable news.  Usually I consider that a bullish sign.

This chart shows that the S&P 500 Index has dropped dramatically the past two times it rose above its upper Bollinger Band line (indicating a market high), while the Bollinger Band Width was narrow (indicating low volatility).  Well that is where we are again, and with low volume as well. 

I am watching the 20 day moving average (which also serves as the recent up-move's trend line).  A break below that might trigger another big move down).

This Week's Featured Market Chart.

Many investors have looked at the early 1930s for some insight into the current economic/stock market environment. While there are significant differences in the global economy and political landscape between the current environment and that what occurred in the early 1930s, there are also many similarities (bank failures, bankruptcies, severe market declines, etc.).

For some perspective on the current stock market rally that began on March 9th, the chart below illustrates the duration (calendar days) and magnitude (percent gain) of all significant Dow rallies that occurred during the 1929-1932 bear market (solid blue dots). For example, the bear market rally that began in October 1931 lasted 35 calendar days and resulted in a gain of 35%. As this chart illustrates, the current Dow rally (hollow blue dot with the pale yellow "You are here" label) is slightly below average in both duration and magnitude relative to the average 1929-1932 bear market rally (hollow red dot, with the pale blue label).

So, as big as this rally seems ... It still might be a bear market rally.

What's Happening In the Legal Industry Says A Lot About the Market.

I used to be a lawyer, and still have a number of friends who practice law. I don't normally use law firm data as a trading indicator; but these are not normal times.  I suspect that there are a number of early indicators we can glean from watching this industry sector.

First, this weekend a bankruptcy partner in a large Dallas firm told me that he is seeing a big upswing in business. This implies a big increase in the number of bankruptcies to be filed in the coming months. I'm hearing similar things from friends around the country; that right now, the hottest section in many law firms is its bankruptcy practice.

I think that means that the economy hasn't fully digested the damage done by the economic slow-down.  Frankly, I'd be surprised if it had.

The other side of that coin is that law firms are downsizing and laying-off people because there simply isn't as much transactional work as there used to be.  The big example here is that Skadden Arps offered its associates one-third of their pay to take the year off.

At Skadden, I'm sure many of them thought, nice work if you can get it.  However, I also suspect that a lot of talent will jump ship to corporate jobs.

This might be the economic season that lawyers start to pursue other business interests.  Historically that has often been a positive mutation for businesses.  Research shows that a disproportionate number of corporate executives have legal degrees.  So, I'm looking for more lawyers to join start-ups roll-ups during the next downturn.  And I'll take that as an early indicator of recovery.

When legal transactional work starts picking-up again because of mergers and acquisitions ... I'll take that as an even better indicator that the recovery underway.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Stocks End Higher As Fed Sees Recession Easing. (AP)
• Only 37% of WSJ Readers Said They Think The Economy Is Improving. (Forums)
• Semiconductor Sales Fall 30%, Continuing Sharpest Downturn In Years. (WSJ)
• In Major Shift, Apple Builds Its Own Team to Design Chips. (WSJ)
• Starbucks Reports Steep Earnings Decline. (NYTimes)
• Microsoft and Verizon in Talks to Launch iPhone Rival. (WSJ)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• You Can Catch Swine Flu From Money. (SmartMoney)
• Do You Have Swine Flu? Self Diagnosis Test. (DoIHaveSwineFlu.org)
• Michael Douglas to Reprise Gordon Gecko 'Wall Street' Role in Sequel. (FoxNews)
• Research Shows People Like To Exploit The Luck Of Others. (BPS Research)
• The Reverse Black Swan. (BW)
• Money Messes With Your Mind - Is Handling Cash An Anesthetic? (NewScientist)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Everything You Need To Know About Swine Flu

Good news, this picture does not illustrate an effective vaccine technique.

Swine Flu is getting a lot of press. Some responses make fun of the panic.  For example, I saw a link to a test to determine if you have the disease.  Clicking the link takes you to a page that says "Panic!  You Are Infected."

Twitter is a great place to watch public emotion unfold.  Here is a comic that pokes fun at the reaction to Swine Flu.

 

Humor aside, here are some links on the subject if you are interested.

• Here is a link to the CDC's updated tally of human cases.
• Here is a graphic guide to germs and where they most likely are near you.
• Here is Organized Wisdom's Swine Flu page.
• Here is the Swine Flu global news summary page from Reuters.
  
• And, here is a FluTracker Map.
  

Capitalogix Commentary 04/24/09

How much is a Trillion? If you were paid a dollar per second, it would take you 31,709 years to earn a Trillion dollars.

If you are more graphic,

this link will show you how much it is in more detail.

To put things in perspective, now think about Bailout ... or that the IMF released its Global Financial Stability Report this week; and it's projecting total losses from the global financial crisis to reach $4.1 Trillion.

This Week's Market Charts.

The Markets held up nicely after a sell-off early last week.  Technology is still leading and the Dow has been lagging a little.  Other things nagging at me about the rally is that momentum is fading and volume hasn't been great.  Here is a chart showing how the Dow is positioned at key support and resistance levels.

Trader's Narrative had a chart that caught my eye. It shows that the short term moving average of the CBOE (equity only) Put-Call ratio is still quite low, corresponding to market tops. Adjusting for the upward sloping range of the data we find it at a similar level to October 2007.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Microsoft Disappoints A day after Apple Didn't. (BW)
• Amazon Net Jumps 24%, Resisting Recession (WSJ)
• Hope, Greed and Fear: The Psychology Behind the Financial Crisis (Wharton)
• An interactive map of vanishing employment across the country.(Slate)
• Second Market: A New Form of Public Offering Is Emerging (A VC)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Are You Being Tracked Via Your Cell Phone? (MediaPost)
• Apple Reaches 1 Billion iPhone Apps Downloaded. (TechChuck)
• Who Is Defending Cyberspace, And Are They Doing A Good Job? (USNews)
• How To Spot Technology Trends With Job Postings. (SmallBizTrends)
• Children Surprisingly Willing To Treat Robot Dogs As 'Dog-Like'. (BPS Research)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Capitalogix Commentary 04/17/09

Stocks continued their advance this week.  The U.S. Markets moved higher for the sixth week in a row. Yet, it was just the seventh positive week for those indices in 2009. 

It is worth noting that the bulk of earnings begin to hit this week. We'll see if people continue to buy into bad news. I'm watching for a change in sentiment.

Long-Term Market Reminder: We have been in a bear market.  So, until proven otherwise, basic trend-following theory implies that the higher probability trades will be on the short side.  That means selling rallies until the bear market ends.

I sense a renewed interest in the market recently by retail investors. For example, just this week I had conversations with several people telling me that they regret not buying Apple and Goldman Sachs while they were down.  I tend to hear this type of conversation at tops.  Here is Goldman's chart.

It is also worth noting that there are reports that Goldman's Q1 Profit was non-recurring and a result of AIG unwinds. Add that to the fact that there we have seen poor bank earnings so far. Yet, it seems that the market sees a much higher likelihood of future financial solvency than it did just two months ago.  Still, this is a sector I'm watching for signs of weakness.  The next chart will explain why.

Here is an interesting chart related to banks from Crossing Wall Street. It could be titled "The Earthquake That's Shaking Our Markets".  It shows recent volatility of Banking Index.

Finally, I thought this was funny. Our peaceful pacifist president has become Obama The Pirate Killer.  Yeah, I know, the SEALs did it ... But I like the chart anyway.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Earnings Are Horrible - And Why It May Not Matter. (Traders Narrative)
• Shiller Says Depression Lurks Unless There’s More Stimulus. (Bloomberg)
• Poorly understood facts about Employment Numbers. (A Dash of Insight)
• Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world. (Financial Times)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Bullish Signs On The Wall of Worry. (A Dash of Insight)
• How High is Too High? (InvestorWalk)
• Things We Can Be Sure Of and Hopeful Because Of.(Financial Philosopher)
• People Need to Play More - It is important to Society. (LiveScience)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

Capitalogix Commentary 04/12/09

The stock market often recovers six months before the economy does; but I don't really believe we are six months away from our economy being fixed.  So, I still classify this as a bear market rally.

It is a big one though. The markets have come quite far off their recent bottom. The U.S. Markets moved higher for the fifth week in a row. Yet, it was just the sixth positive week for those indices in 2009.

The S&P 500 is currently trading more than 8.5% above its 50-day moving average, which is its most overbought reading since May 2001.

This rally has been a welcome respite from a seemingly unrelenting downtrend. Historically, I can't find too much precedent for the continuation of a move like this on a global basis. So a correction could soon be expected, or even welcomed.

Normally a market turning-point is tested within a number of weeks. How the market behaves at that time is important. A light-volume decline to or towards the old lows ... and then a heavy-volume start to a new rally would be ideal.

View From the Trenches.

I was talking to a friend of mine who is a partner in the bankruptcy section of a law firm. His market outlook is bearish because he's never seen his section's work pipeline this full before. There are a lot of bankruptcies in process, and a lot of companies talking to him to investigate whether it's the right option for them to pursue in the future. From his perspective, we're not done yet.  I'm not putting too much meaning into this.  Just passing on the data point.

The Pyramid of Misery.

The chart below shows a funny and current version of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.

That graphic came from Portfolio Magazine, which has had a number of good articles recently.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• Is YouTube Doomed? Half a Billion Dollar loss is a tough pill to swallow. (BusinessInsider)
• Salary Cuts Instead of Lay-Offs: Ugly, But It Could Be Worse. (WSJ)
• Loss Aversion: Traders take riskier decisions to avoid losing money. (Economist)
• Teaching Survival Skills to a Technology Start-Up. (NYTimes)
• New Economy Means New Entrepreneurs. (Street.com)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Just 53% of Americans Say Capitalism Better Than Socialism. (Rasmussen Reports)
• In an Age of Austerity, Is Thrift re-emerging as a value? (NYTimes)
• Wikipedia for Spies: The CIA Discovers Web 2.0. (Time)
• How Losing by Just a Little Can Help a Team -- or Company -- Win. (Wharton)
• Brain Researchers Open Door to Editing Memory. (NYTimes)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.

You Focus On What You Measure

I have the privilege of knowing many fine entrepreneurs. Some of them are doing surprisingly well. Others are licking their wounds and struggling with the loss of confidence in their business, their business model, or even themselves.

 On some level, recent events could represent the biggest failure that some of these people ever have in their lives.

There are several ways to take that. Here's one to think about.

What would you do if you knew your worst failure was behind you and everything from this point forward was a move upwards or at least provides an opportunity to make progress?

I Sense A Lot of Pain.

If you look at things based on cycles or seasons, then this probably has been winter.  Still, periods like this can teach you a lot about yourself.

I got a phone call this week from a friend who asked where I've been hiding. I was surprised because I hadn't thought about it like that.  Yet, it didn't take much reflection to see that many people I know, including me, have been hiding in one way or another.

For example, one of my closest friends hasn't been returning phone calls. That is one of his early warning signs that tells me he is having a tough time. And several unquestionably smart, resourceful, and successful businessmen have broken down into tears recently while talking to me about the circumstances in which they find themselves.  I get it; there is a lot of pain out there right now.

It affects me too.  A business group that I've participated in for almost 10 years is going on its annual retreat this week. It's designed to be fun and a vehicle to reconnect with ourselves and each other. It's a time for reflection, sharing and hopefully for new insight. Yet, there's a part of me that doesn't want to go.

If I'm honest with myself, it is probably because I don't want to re-examine what happened during the past year.  In other words, I don't want to reflect on what went wrong, again, because I've done that enough already.

But going to the retreat doesn't have to be about that at all. In fact, instead of it being an unpleasant exercise focusing on what I don't want ... it easily can be when I focus on what I do want, and how I'm going to get there in a way that's best for everyone involved. The only difference in those two retreats is what I make it mean - and of course what happens because of that.

You Focus on What You Measure.

So, it occurs to me that I might be measuring the wrong things in several areas. Just because I used to keep score one way, doesn't mean that it's a helpful measure for me now.

Measurement is supposed to give you a sense of your momentum towards your target. Done right, it helps you feel more confident and in-control. Sure it tells you what to do less of ... more importantly, though, it highlights what we can and should do more of.

Cleansing Or Clogging?

I remember being in a Tony Robbins seminar about health and hearing a simple rule that made sense to me about eating. He said: before you put something in your mouth think about whether it's cleansing or clogging. That made sense to me, and it was helpful. The same could hold true for deciding which things to focus on in business or life. Will focusing on this create momentum and energy, or not? 

On some level pain is inevitable.  Yet, for the most part, suffering is optional.

Choose what makes you strong and more likely to take actions that make progress.

Capitalogix Commentary 04/05/09

The U.S. Markets moved higher for the fourth week in a row. This is just the fifth positive week for these indices in 2009.

The public notices!  I had a guy approach me at the gym to ask if I thought he should start buying again.  He said he knew it could go back down, some, but isn't that "dollar-cost-averaging"?  And I got an e-mail from a friend asking me to recommend a trading course for his wife to take because she is starting to day-trade.  Those things whisper that sentiment is changing.  Hope the market does too.

Rally Symmetry.

While we are still in a downtrend on the longer timeframes, the size of the short-term rally is impressive.  This chart shows that the S&P 500 Index has rallied 27% off its March lows.

This is surprisingly similar to the size of the bear rally swings we saw in October and November.

Is Rising On Bad News a Good Sign?

The latest report on job losses showed that the American economy shed another 663,000 jobs in March and that unemployment rose to 8.5 percent. 

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell on the news, it quickly shrugged-off the data, and closed back above 8,000 for the first time since early February.

Bad news everywhere, and the Markets continued higher.  I thought it was an April Fool's joke.  It still may turn out that way?  In my book, though, that is a bullish sign.

Another Bullish Sign, Markets Are Above Their 50-Day Moving Averages.

For me, most notable is that our major indices are now above their 50-day moving averages for the first time in a very long time.  Even better, tech is leading the way. So until the 50-day is broken back to the downside, this market deserves some respect.

Yes, shorter term, markets are overbought ... but they have been overbought for more than a week. I can't believe I'm saying this ... remember that overbought can also be a sign of strength.

Recession Length.

While the stock market has rallied nicely since bottoming on March 9th, the economy continues to struggle. For some perspective on the current economic recession, the chart below illustrates the duration of all US recessions since 1900.

The five longest recessions all began prior to 1930. The length of the current recession (now entering its 16th month) is above average, and equal to the longest recessions (1973 & 1981) since the Great Depression.

Since it is unlikely that the Recession is over, the question is how much longer till it ends?

In addition, something I'm paying more attention to is the amount of talk I'm hearing about the inevitable devaluation of the dollar.  Let me know what you think about it.

Business Posts Moving the Markets that I Found Interesting This Week:

• How Can Small Investors Get In on the Bailout? (NYTimes)
• A Few Drops Don't Make the Glass Half Full. (Barrons)
• Have We Nationalized Banks in response to the current economic crisis? (Duke)
• Credit bubble looms as investors rush to credit, distressed debt and CTA's. (Reuters)
• G-20 Expands IMF Lending Powers to $1 Trillion to reignite world growth. (WSJ)
• More Posts Moving the Markets.

Lighter Ideas and Fun Links that I Found Interesting This Week

• Heart Muscle Renewed Over Lifetime, Study Finds. (NYTimes)
• Tax Day Tea Party: The resistance is brewing. (TaxDayTeaParty)
• Is Google In Talks To Acquire Twitter? (TechCrunch)
• AI Advance: Robot scientists can think for themselves. (Reuters)
• More Posts with Lighter Ideas and Fun Links.