Capitalogix

Super Bowl Tickets

Guys

 I know it's late notice, but a friend of mine has two tickets for the Super Bowl in Minneapolis, MN at the new U. S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, February 4th. They are box seats and he paid $3,500 per ticket, which includes the ride to and from the airport, lunch, dinner, a $400.00 bar tab and a pass to the winner's locker room after the game.

 What he didn't realize when he bought them last year was that it's on the same day as his wedding.

 

 

story hat-tip to JW.

 

If you are interested, he is looking for someone to take his place. It's at St. Paul's Church at 3 p.m. Her name is Ashley. She's 5'4", about 115 pounds, a good cook, loves to fish and hunt and will clean your truck. She'll be the one in the white dress.

 

Saw this and thought it was funny. 

 

Who do you think is going to win the Superbowl? Patriots or Eagles?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 28th, 2018

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Trump Reportedly Uses an Indian Accent to Mimic Modi at Meetings. (Quartz)
• Statistician is One of the Fastest-growing Jobs for the Future. (Qz)
• Compare Your Fears against Reality. (FlowingData)
• Vladimir Putin Takes Dip in Freezing Water to Mark Epiphany. (CNN)
• China, Russia and the U.S. are Running Neck-and-neck in an AI Military Arms Race. (Latest)

Trading Links:

• How Blockchain Could Radically Alter Global Finance. (Insight)
• Davos: a Rough Guide to the World Economic Forum. (BBC)
• Are Google and Facebook Monopolies? (Review)
• 10 Charts that Will Change Your Perspective on Artificial Intelligence's Growth. (Forbes)
• Apple Rises to Become World's Fourth-Largest PC Maker with around 20M Macs Sold Last Year. (MacRumors)

What Does The Average NBA Player Look Like?

Each sport has a different ratio of ethnicities. You might expect more Pacific Islanders in Rugby or Caucasians in Golf. 

So what happens when you average the top players' faces in various sports?

As you might expect, you get very different results depending on the sport.  See what I mean?

  osmutiar via Reddit

Not particularly surprising.

What is worth noting, however,  is that while you may be thinking "this player must be unstoppable" ... statistically, he's average.

The "composite" NBA player would be the 112th best player in the league. He's the fourth best starter on an okay team. 

We found the same thing with our trading bots.  The ones that made it through the most filters weren't the star performers.  They were the average bots that did enough not to fail (but failed to make the list as top performers in any of the categories).  The survivors were generalists, not specialists.

The reminder is that you won't find exceptional specialists if your focus is on generalized safety.

Onwards.

Why A.I. Can't Always Fix Human Stupidity - Weekly Reading Links - January 26th, 2018

Record numbers of teens are eating tide pods ... for likes and retweets. It's such an "epidemic" that Rob Gronkowski partnered with Tide to release a PSA. Baffling.

 

 

Here is a peek at what I've been reading lately. These are the links I saved this week. Hope you find some interesting and enjoyable tidbits. Let me know if you read something I'd like ... Or if there are other sources I should add to my weekly reading. Thanks.

Lighter Links:

Amazon Go: Amazon's New No-Money, No-Line, Brick and Mortar Store (It's Scaring Everyone Else in Retail). (Inc) Apollo Astronauts Often Fell behind Schedule on the Moon.(TheVerge) This Tiny Robot Moves So Fast It's Just a Blur on Camera. (TheVerge) The Firm of the Future. (Bain) The Secret to Henry Kissinger's Success. (Politico) They are Watching You and Everything Else on the Planet. (NatGeo) A Mind Made out of Silk. (Quanta) CES 2018: Real Advances, Real Progress, Real Questions. (Medium) Watch Tony Robbins Bring Someone to Tears in a One-on-one Motivational Session. (BusinessInsider) Tech Tools for Keeping New Years' Resolutions. (Unclutterer) Three Reasons Your Presentation is Literally Putting People to Sleep.(FastCompany) Photo Format from Google and Mozilla Could Leave JPEG in the Dust.(CNet) Ten Questions Recruiters Shouldn't Ask - and You Shouldn't Answer.(Forbes) Plato Would Have Wanted You to Unplug. (Eidolon) Mastering the Learning Pyramid. (Edgeperspectives) Finding the Platform in Your Product. (HBR) The Best Reads on Platforms from 2017. (Stories) Editorial Cartooning, Then and Now. (Medium) Clever Machines Learn How to Be Curious. (Quanta) I Replaced the Word Millennials' with 43-Year-Old White Men' and Now these Headlines are *Italian Chef Kissing Fingers Gesture*.(Medium)

Market-Related Links

2018: the Year Blockchain, AI and IoT Converge. (CoinDesk) Blockchain in Action. (OZY) The Cryptocurrency Mania is Sure to End in Tears. (Barrons) Bitcoin: the Big Short is Already Here and It Could Get Far Worse.(SeekingAlpha) Inside Amazon Go, a Store of the Future. (New York Times) Rolling Back Regulations Often Comes before a Financial Meltdown, According to 300 Years of History. (Quartz) Diary of an IPO. (Redfin) Amazon Effect Steamrolling the Restaurant Industry. (FoxBusiness) This Company is Increasingly Looking like the Berkshire Hathaway of Technology. (SeekingAlpha) This Billion-Dollar Amazon Business is Growing Faster Than Amazon Web Services. (Fool) Trump Has Given North Korea the Greatest Gift Ever. (Vox) Cash Might Be King, but They Don't Care. (New York Times) New Tax Code Has Long Route Ahead before It Can Be Implemented. (NPR) Stocks Soar, Mergers Slump, Activist Investors Wield Power. (WSJ) Why Google and Amazon Keep Fidelity and BlackRock up at Night.(Bloomberg) Six Health Stories to Watch in 2018. (Wall Street Journal) Robots are Making Your Sushi, and That's Good for the Economy. (Bloomberg) Never Mind Bitcoin. China Loves AI Stocks. (Bloomberg) Coinbase Wants Wall Street to Resolve Its Bitcoin Trust Issues.(Bloomberg) A Wall Street Consultancy Eviscerated Crypto in a Massive Report and It Should Strike Fear into the Heart of Every Bitcoin Bull.(BusinessInsider)

Let me know what you think. Thanks. - Howard

Which Industries are Prime for Disruption?

Last year, I talked with the CEO of CB Insights about how Fintech was disrupting the value chain of financial services. 

Since then, it's become even easier to see how disruptors are changing every industry, and becoming leaders in their fields.

 

via McKinsey

 

Companies like Lyft, Tesla, and Netflix changed paradigms and are now leading the pack, but what industries are next?

Looking at a report by McKinsey&Company, we find that the 5 industries with the least digitization account for 34% of GDP and 42% of all employees. 

 

1. Agriculture and Hunting
2. Construction
3. Hospitality
4. Healthcare
5. Government

via Quora

But, being less digitized than competitors, alone, isn't enough to indicate it's ready for disruption: 

 

How Regulated Is The Industry?

Heavily regulated industries mean that any company that can find a way around current regulations and tax structures can become an effective competitor fast ... i.e Lyft and Tesla

Is There Too Much Competition Already?

How many competitors are in the space? Is there spare capacity, or does the current model waste resources? Think taxis waiting for customers or empty seats on airplanes. 

Can it Be Automated?

Lot's of industries and tasks are ready and waiting to be automated - and only haven't been due to the cost of switching to new technology. 

 

To put it another way - are you solving a customer headache while lowering costs for you and the customer? 

The only constant is change, and digitization and automation are only increasing the rate of change. The type, quality, and the number of jobs being offered are changing rapidly. 

As digitization increases so does adoption of AI-related technologies. 

McKinsey Institute via Vox

AI is coming, disruption is coming.

It's no longer possible, it's not even just probable, it's inevitable

This interactive graph tells you if your job is automation proof, and what percentage of your job can be automated.

What industry do you think is next?

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 21st, 2018

It's day 2 of the government shutdown; but what does that actually mean?

In short: 

• "Essential" government services will still run even if employees aren't getting paid - USPS, TSA, Social Security
• Other "non-essential" government employees will be "furloughed" and told to stay at home. 
• Military will be required to work, but won't be paid until Congress comes to an agreement
• Employees will be paid retroactively once an agreement is met. 

 Efficiency at its finest ... or a force function to get the children to play nicer with each other?

 

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Want to Get Wisdom? Be Your Own Crowd. (Bloomberg)
• NASA Just Proved It Can Navigate Space Using Pulsars. Where to Now? (Wired)
• It's So Cold in Russia that Thermometers are Breaking. (BGR)
• What Robot Strippers Say about Sexism, Tech and the Future. (AP News)
• Benjamin Franklin Built His Character around 13 Virtues and Following His Weekly Plan Could Change Your Life. (BusinessInsider)

Trading Links:

• How Donald Trump Has Remade the Rules for Business. (Wall Street Journal)
• Fed Paid $29.3 Billion to Banks 'Not' to Lend in 2017; Gave $80 Billion to Treasury. (ZeroHedge)
• One Person is Probably Responsible for Almost 600 Percent of Bitcoin's Price Rise. (Mashable)
• Kodak's Pivot to Crypto Seems to Be Working out Quite Nicely. (FastCompany)
• These are the Biggest Risks for Businesses in 2018, According to the World Economic Forum. (Fortune)

Some Things Never Change ...

This week I went to Chicago to speak at my old alma mater - Kellogg.

It was great to talk with professors and spend time with MBA students interested in trading and how the business of trading is changing. 

I plan on spending more time there to benefit research and recruiting.

 

 

Unsurprisingly, deep dish pizza is still delicious.  We were going to eat at a steakhouse.  However, Jennifer and I remembered that the only thing better than gorging on meat ... is gorging on meat and cheese. 

While some things haven't changed, others have.

The Universe must be trying to tell me something.  The day I got back, I found my old ID card ... and, apparently, some things have changed in the past thirty years. 

 

 

Onwards.

Disaster or Discount ... ??? Weekly Reading Links - January 19th, 2018

Bitcoin has crashed approximately 50% since its peak in December, in large part due to fear of regulation and fraud. Are you selling off, or buying in?

Here is a peek at what I've been reading lately. These are the links I saved this week. Hope you find some interesting and enjoyable tidbits. Let me know if you read something I'd like ... Or if there are other sources I should add to my weekly reading. Thanks.

Lighter Links:

3 Ways to Be a Strategist, Not a Tactician. (Forbes) Computers Can Now Read Better Than Humans. (Alphr) What AI Can and Can't Do (Yet) for Your Business. (McKinsey) Drunk Droning in New Jersey Could Land You in Prison. (EnGadget) How Panerai Conquered the Luxury Watch World. (Maxim) The Pre-Mortem Technique is the Best Way to Avoid Stress and Remain Calm. (Curiosity) The Nuclear Worrier. (NYBooks) The Aging Beauty of Soviet Control Rooms. (FastCoD) This is Probably What Neanderthals Sounded Like. (Curiosity) These are the Funniest Words in the English Language (According to Research). (Curiosity) Charisma, Cause and Effect. (Seth Godin) How to Build Daily Habits that Support Your Goals. (Copyblogger) LegalFling Uses the Blockchain to Help Couples Confirm Sexual Consent - with Troubling Implications. (Alphr) How Antivirus Software Can Be Turned into a Tool for Spying. (NYT) Dogs Can't Speak Human. Here's the Tech that Could Change That.(NBCNews) Best of 2017: 30 Web Apps and Software Trends that Ruled the Workplace. (Zapier) This is the Best Time to Do Anything: 4 Powerful Secrets from Research. (TheLadders) The Reputation Game: How to Control the Way We Appear in the Eyes of Others. (NewStatesman) Perform a Life Audit to Set Yourself up for Success in 2018.(Twocents) A Look inside the Daily Routine of Billionaire Investor Mark Cuban, Who Starts Working the Minute He Wakes up and Falls Asleep to 'Law & Order'. (BusinessInsider)

Market-Related Links

Bitcoin Value Drops but It Doesn't Matter. (Points & Figures)  Europe's Central Banks are Starting to Replace Dollar Reserves with the Yuan. (Quartz) Was Tulipmania Irrational? (Economist) It Can All Go to Zero. (Feld) Goldman Sachs Swings to Loss on Tax Charge. (Reuters) The Next Revolution in Dental Care is about to Begin. (NBCNews) How Dropbox Could Lead a Charge of Tech IPOs in 2018. (TheStreet) Google Opens an Office in China's Silicon Valley. (EnGadget) Bitcoin-futures Contracts Create as Many Risks as They Mitigate.(Economist) The 10 Companies that Dominate the Global Arms Trade. (ValueWalk) Market Seasonality Composite Charts for Stocks & Bonds.(SeeItMarket) President Trump Earns the Highest Presidential Approval Level of All Time. (Dilbert) Digital Media Companies are Headed for a Crash, Hearst Magazines President David Carey Says. (Re/code) JPMorgan CEO Dimon: Tax Reform is a 'Significant Positive Outcome for the Country'. (Finance) What's $27 Billion to Wall Street? an Alarming Drop in Revenue.(NYT) What is Modern Portfolio Theory? (Money) Why the Biggest Risk for Wealth Accumulators is Often Not Taking Enough Risk. (Business) Rich Dad Author Says the next Financial Crash Will Be like an 'Avalanche'. (TheStreet) Berkshire Hathaway's Stock Has Risen More Than One Million Percent under Warren Buffett. (Quartz) Billionaire Investor Steve Cohen is about to Make His Return to the Hedge Fund Industry and He's Already Amassed a Substantial War Chest. (BusinessInsider)

Let me know what you think. Thanks. - Howard

Algorithms are Watching: How Machines Learn

Machine Learning algorithms are everywhere.

They're helping you pick out your next gift on Amazon, controlling what you find on Google, they're suggesting new music for you on Spotify, and they're doing their best to keep you on their website.

When trying to explain how machines learn we tend to try and describe it in human terms. Unfortunately (or fortunately) machine learning isn't based on how we teach humans.

The video is a bit simple in its explanations, but it describes some important concepts. So, watch how machines learn.

 

CGP Grey via Youtube

The video focuses on Genetic Algorithms, which is one type of machine learning, and neglects some of the other more complicated approaches.

As machine learning gets more complicated and evolved, it gets harder for a human to understand what makes it good ... and that's okay. 

It's human nature to feel safer when we understand something. It's human nature to envision machines as making human-like decisions, just faster.

Of course, just because it suits human nature to believe something, that doesn't make it true. 

Part of what makes machine learning exciting is that it can do a lot of things well that humans are really bad at. 

In reality, it doesn't matter why a bot is making a decision, or what inputs the bot is making the decision on. What matters is the performance and level of decision-making in relation to itself and to other options.

One of the lessons I teach when I speak publically is that in trading, caring about the markets is a weakness.

It's a distraction. 

I don't care how markets are doing.

I care how my systems are doing. I care how my portfolio is doing.

There's too much data for me to try and care about anything else. 

It's a brave new world, and not only is big brother watching, but algorithms are too.

Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - January 14th, 2018

 

Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.

Lighter Links:

• Tesla Model 3: the First Serious Review. (The Drive)
• How Religion Made a Global Comeback in 2017. (The Atlantic)
• New Year's Fitness Resolutions: the Smartest Way to Keep Them. (WSJ)
• How Kaspersky's Software Fell under Suspicion of Spying on America. (Wall Street Journal)
• Could Your Apple Watch Save Your Life?: How Smartwatch Sensors Could Help Tackle a Dangerous Heart Condition. (ZDNet)

Trading Links:

• Kodak Announces Blockchain Plan, Share Price Soars. (FinExtra)
• Here's Why Spotify is Bypassing the Normal IPO Process and Why More Companies Don't Do It. (BI)
• As Dow Tops 25000, Individual Investors Sit It Out. (Wall Street Journal)
• Amazon Has a Master Plan to Turn Alexa into a Full-fledged Economy All on Its Own. (Insider)
• A Crypto Expert Explains the Difference between the Two Largest Cryptocurrencies in the World: Bitcoin and Ethereum. (BusinessInsider)